[Why can't they give the # of votes each team received, like ESPN does? I mean, they're counting the fuckin votes, anyway.]
AL East: Blue JaysAL East baseball will not be for the faint of heart this year; it has the look of the most competitive division in the Majors. But ultimately, our voters expect Toronto to hang on to its division crown following its worst-to-first turnaround in 2025. . . . Others receiving votes: Yankees, Red Sox and OriolesAL Central: Tigers
The 2025 season was still a pretty successful one for the Tigers, even after they squandered a 6.5-game lead in the AL Central over the regular season's final two weeks and limped into the playoffs as a Wild Card. . . . Others receiving votes: RoyalsAL West: Mariners
Is it finally Seattle's time? The Mariners were nine outs away from their first pennant last season before everything went awry in ALCS Game 7 against the Blue Jays. But this might be the best roster they have fielded since their record-setting 2001 team, which won 116 games. . . . Others receiving votes: Astros, Rangers and AthleticsAL Wild Cards: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles
Red Sox: Even though the Red Sox lost Alex Bregman via free agency, the inclusion of first baseman Willson Contreras and a full season of burgeoning star Roman Anthony could make this lineup more threatening than it was for much of last season's second half. Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran make up one of the sport's best -- albeit crowded -- outfield groups. Boston's most noteworthy offseason moves were focused on the mound, however, as it stabilized the rotation behind AL Cy Young runner-up Garrett Crochet by trading for Sonny Gray and signing Ranger Suarez to a five-year contract. . . .AL Champion: Mariners
The Mariners finally get over the hump and win the American League for the first time in franchise history, according to our voters. Seattle received more than twice as many votes as any other club to be the champions of the Junior Circuit. Others receiving votes: Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, Red Sox, Orioles and RangersNL East: Mets
Few teams experienced more roster turnover this offseason than the Mets. Change was needed in Queens after a three-month tailspin ended with the club missing the playoffs on the final day of the regular season. . . . Others receiving votes: Phillies, Braves and MarlinsNL Central: Cubs
The Cubs re-established themselves as legitimate contenders last season, snapping a four-year playoff drought and winning the franchise's first postseason series since 2017. The next challenge? Dethroning the Brewers, who have won three consecutive NL Central titles and sent Chicago home in last year's NLDS. Others receiving votes: Brewers and PiratesNL West: Dodgers
This one shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. The back-to-back defending champions have won 12 of the last 13 NL West titles, only failing to do so in 2021 -- even though they still won 106 games. With an admirable combination of depth and star power, the Dodgers are well-suited to overcome any obstacle in their path . . . Shohei Ohtani is returning to being a full-time two-way player, and the four-time MVP expects to be in the Cy Young conversation.NL Wild Cards: Phillies, Padres, BrewersNL Champion: Dodgers
According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers are projected to win 96 games this season. The next closest team in the National League is projected for 88 wins.World Series Champion: Dodgers
If they win another championship, the Dodgers will be just the fifth team to claim three titles in a row. . . . Others receiving votes: Mariners, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies, Tigers and Rangers
AL East: Yankees (16 votes), Blue Jays (8), Red Sox (6)Despite the Blue Jays being the reigning AL champs, our voters favored the Yankees to win the division. What made New York the pick? . . . New York overhauled its roster over the course of last season, punctuated by a busy trade deadline. . . . The floor for this Yankees team is higher over 162 games as long as three-time MVP Aaron Judge stays healthy. . . . As for the Blue Jays, they had themselves a very busy offseason, adding Dylan Cease among others, but injuries to the rotation have already surfaced and Bo Bichette's departure is significant. . . .The Red Sox shook off the Rafael Devers mini controversy and righted the ship last season to the tune of 89 wins. There's no reason they can't take the next step, possessing a well-rounded roster that also includes a really good top of the rotation in Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray. Not to mention Boston gets a full year of Roman Anthony. It's a sneaky good lineup behind him. The sum will be better than the parts for the Red Sox -- and the parts aren't shabby.AL Central: Tigers (23 votes), Royals (6), Guardians (1)AL West: Mariners (25 votes), Astros (3), Texas (1), Athletics (1)AL Wild Cards: Blue Jays (21), Red Sox (19), Yankees (14)
Royals (10), Orioles (7), Astros (5), Mariners (5), Tigers (4), Texas (3), Athletics (1), Guardians (1)Our voters view the three most likely wild-card teams to all be AL East teams. What does that say about the state of that division? It's the best division in baseball -- and largely has been this decade, with four different division winners in the past five seasons (only the Red Sox haven't won) and all five teams having playoff hopes. . . .AL Champion: Mariners (15), Red Sox (6), Tigers (5), Yankees (3), Blue Jays (1)NL East: Mets (16 votes), Phillies (13), Atlanta (1)NL Central: Cubs (27 votes), Brewers (3)NL West: Dodgers (29 votes), Padres (1)NL Wild Cards: Brewers (18 votes), Phillies (17), Atlanta (14)
Mets (13), Pirates (11), Padres (8), Reds (2), Giants (2), Marlins (2), Cubs (1), Diamondbacks (1), Dodgers (1)NL Champion: Dodgers (27 votes), Phillies (2), Mets (1)World Series Champion: Dodgers (14 votes), Mariners (6), Red Sox (3), Tigers (2), Yankees (2), Phillies (1), Mets (1), Blue Jays (1)AL MVP: Aaron Judge (11 votes), Bobby Witt Jr. (10), Roman Anthony (3), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3), Cal Raleigh (1), Junior Caminero (1), Julio Rodriguez (1)AL Cy Young: Tarik Skubal (14 votes), Garrett Crochet (11), Hunter Brown (3), Framber Valdez (1), Max Fried (1)AL Rookie of the Year: Kevin McGonigle (12 votes), Munetaka Murakami (5), Carter Jensen (4), Kazuma Okamoto (4), Trey Yesavage (2), Samuel Basallo (2), Tatsuya Imai (1)NL MVP: Shohei Ohtani (21 votes), Juan Soto (6), Ronald Acuña Jr. (2), Bryce Harper (1)Ohtani would tie the record for most consecutive MVP awards -- four, held by Barry Bonds -- with another MVP win this season. Can anyone stop him from making more history? With Ohtani gearing up for a full season of pitching, it might be impossible, but let's throw out three players who could challenge him -- two of which were MVP picks by some of our voters. Acuña had an 8.4-WAR season when he won his MVP award in 2023. If he does that, he'll be in the vicinity of Ohtani (who had 7.8 WAR last year). Soto had a career high 7.9 WAR with the Yankees in 2024. If he's the best hitter in the league, he'll have a shot. And how about Paul Skenes? If he can get some run support and lead the Pirates to the playoffs, you never know.NL Cy Young: Paul Skenes (23 votes), Cristopher Sanchez (4), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3)NL Rookie of the Year: Nolan McLean (11 votes), JJ Wetherholt (7), Konnor Griffin (6), Sal Stewart (4), Bubba Chandler (1), Justin Crawford (1)
Red Sox: After a three-year playoff drought (tied for their longest in three decades), the resurgent Red Sox captured a wild card last season. Boston will now rely on a retooled rotation behind ace Garrett Crochet and a young offense that scored the seventh-most runs in the majors last year.AL EastBlue Jays 95–67*
Orioles 91–71*
Red Sox 87–75*
Yankees 86–76*
Rays 73–89
*: postseason teamRed Sox: Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow seems to have the Red Sox on the right track. The veteran arms they've added greatly enhance their chances of advancing in the playoffs, and Alex Cora is one of just four active MLB managers with a World Series title.Yankees: Fans are running out of patience with GM Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone. Cashman has won four World Series with the Yankees, but none since 2009 despite vast resources. New York has MLB’s third-largest payroll but little depth.AL MVP: Julio Rodriguez, MarinersAL Cy Young: Garrett Crochet, Red SoxAL Rookie of the Year: Kazuma Okamoto, Blue JaysAL Manager of the Year: Craig Albernaz, OriolesNL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, DodgersNL Cy Young: Paul Skenes, Pirates
NL Rookie of the Year: JJ Wetherholt, CardinalsNL Manager of the Year: Tony Vitello, GiantsPostseason PredictionsAL Wild Card
Tigers over Yankees in 3 / Red Sox over Orioles in 3AL Division SeriesMariners over Tigers in 4 / Red Sox over Blue Jays in 5AL Championship SeriesMariners over Red Sox in 6NL Wild CardMets over Giants in 3 / Phillies over Brewers in 2NL Division SeriesCubs over Mets in 5 / Dodgers over Phillies in 4NL Championship SeriesDodgers over Cubs in 5World SeriesDodgers over Mariners in 6
Keith Law:
It's an annual tradition: My column explaining why I think your favorite team isn't going to win as many games as you think they are.These predictions are for fun, not a demonstration of my deep-seated loathing for your favorite team, and not the product of a sophisticated machine-learning algorithm to produce impeccable forecasts. I make it all up, and then I talk about it. (I do, however, rely on FanGraphs' projections as a starting point for several things here, especially some individual player projections, and this piece would be far harder without them.)I've done this for 15+ years now, and the reactions are always the same — people look for what I said about their favorite teams and then yell at me about it. I got two division winners right last year, counting the Dodgers (who shouldn't even count as getting it 'right'), and a team I picked to finish last ended up two outs away from a championship. I did get the NL Cy Young Award winner right, at least, but that’s not a whole lot to write home about.American League East: The Yankees lead baseball's most competitive divisionYankees 91-71The Yankees led the American League in runs scored by a wide margin last year, and I expect them to lead the league again, although they are so dependent on Aaron Judge that even a modest injury to the soon-to-be 34-year-old MVP could have a dramatic impact on their fortunes. . . . The rotation is in decent shape to start the year, but it'll get better when Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole return later this spring from their elbow surgeries . . .
Orioles 88-74
Red Sox 87-75
Blue Jays 85-77
Rays 75-87The Red Sox were aggressive this winter, adding three starting pitchers, a first baseman and another infielder, although it looks like the Red Sox agreed that Johan Oviedo wasn't actually an upgrade over Connolly Early, and I hate that they're moving Marcelo Mayer out of position in deference to Trevor Story's dead-cat bounce year. There's still a lot of upside across this roster, though, enough that I think they can overcome some of this roster churn and end up with 90+ wins in many scenarios. . . .The Rays are dancing on the edge of disaster with their roster, with several starters I do not trust to throw 120 innings this year, a left fielder who has less power than a dead AirTag battery, a second baseman who can't seem to field, a center fielder who can't throw or get on base and I dare you to name either catcher on their 40-man roster. They have three good hitters, and their pitchers throw a lot of strikes. . . . [LOL]
AL Central: Tigers, by 5 games over Royals, Guardians, Twins, White Sox
AL West: Mariners, by 9 games over Astros, Texas, Athletics, Angels
NL East: Mets, by 4 games over Phillies, Atlanta, Marlins, Nationals
NL Central: Cubs, by 2 games over Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers, by 15 games over Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies
Four of five writers (Mike Axisa, Kate Feldman, Dayn Perry, Matt Snyder) pick Garrett Crochet for Cy Young winner. Alex Cora gets one pick (Perry) as Manager of the Year.
Feldman: I think Tarik Skubal will out-pitch Garrett Crochet but I also think Skubal will be traded at the deadline -- to a National League team (let's call it the Mets) so he'll be ineligible.
Snyder: Crochet can topple Skubal for the Cy too, and he wasn't far off last year.
FanGraphs
Projected StandingsW-L RS/G RA/G DIFF
Yankees 87-75 4.72 4.34 +0.38
Red Sox 86-76 4.55 4.27 +0.28
Blue Jays 86-76 4.64 4.36 +0.28
Orioles 84-78 4.83 4.61 +0.22
Rays 81-81 4.32 4.30 +0.02
Playoff OddsW L
Yankees 86.6 75.4
Red Sox 84.8 77.2
Blue Jays 84.7 77.3
Orioles 83.5 78.5
Rays 79.8 82.2
Over 162 games, FanGraphs projects only a razor-thin margin of 1.9 wins to separate the top three teams and 3.1 wins to separate the top four teams. . . .
Every Game Counts.
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