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April 1, 2006

For Entertainment Purposes Only

Yankee blogger SG ran some 2006 sims ("take [these] with a ton of salt, as it is impossible to project how everything will shake out, and injuries, roster changes, and over/under performance will end up changing things in ways that cannot be prognosticated"):

1,000 Diamond Mind:
          W   L  DIV   WC   %   HiW LoW
Yankees 93 69 689 108 80% 110 76
Red Sox 86 76 219 136 36% 107 68
B. Jays 83 79 84 93 18% 102 63
Orioles 75 87 7 8 2% 92 91
D. Rays 70 92 1 6 1% 91 47
The Royals were the only team to not get a single playoff spot in the 1,000 seasons.

1,000 PECOTA:
          W   L  DIV   WC   %   HiW LoW
Yankees 92 70 619 148 77% 111 70
Red Sox 88 74 283 239 52% 107 67
B. Jays 83 79 93 103 20% 109 65
Orioles 74 88 5 9 1% 94 54
D. Rays 69 93 0 0 0% 87 45
This time, it's the Rays who get skunked (KC won the Central 11 times!).

1,000 ZiPS:
          W   L  DIV   WC   %   HiW LoW
Red Sox 94 68 784 70 85% 113 74
Yankees 85 77 116 164 28% 106 63
B. Jays 82 80 87 92 18% 105 64
Orioles 74 88 9 9 2% 92 55
D. Rays 73 89 6 4 1% 94 54
Now this I like. Can you imagine the Yankees going 63-99?!

Average of the three:
          W   L  DIV   WC   %   HiW LoW
Yankees 90 72 1424 420 61% 111 63
Red Sox 89 73 1286 445 58% 113 67
B. Jays 83 79 264 288 18% 109 63
Orioles 74 88 21 26 2% 94 54
D. Rays 71 91 7 10 1% 94 45
Once again, the East looks like a season-long battle and photo finish -- with the Blue Jays not much of a threat.

In another post, SG writes:
The addition of Johnny Damon has 'experts' everywhere predicting that the Yankees may score 1000 runs this year. While the talent may be on hand to actually do it, based on the 3000 seasons I ran in Diamond Mind, the odds of it actually happening are about 0.4% (it happened in 13 out of 3000 runs).
In the comments section of the Sims post, SG says the high and low runs scored for the Yankees was 1,043 and 643.

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