AL MVP?

The American League Most Valuable Player will be announced on Tuesday.

Derek Jeter easily topped the MVP voting at Baseball Prospectus (from both the staff and public) and he won the Aaron Award as the AL's top offensive player. This gives me a pretty good feeling that he'll also be the favourite of the BBWAA.

Back in mid-September, many scribes proclaimed Jeter as the logical choice, especially after David Ortiz missed eight games with heart palpitations. In mid-September, Bob Ryan of the Globe wrote: "It would be a mockery to anoint anyone else."

However, even with Papi's time off, Jeter played in only three more games (154 to 151), so there is no reason why Ortiz's absence should count against him. Nevertheless, The Man himself has no expectations of winning: "Apparently, a designated hitter doesn't win it ... I was very frustrated in 2004 when I didn't win the award, but I don't think about that anymore."

So, after finishing the second-best season of his career, the Yankee shortstop and captain is the favourite. For Red Sox fans, the discussion can perhaps be boiled down to this question(s): Was Jeter the most valuable player in the American League in 2006? (And if not, who was?)

The first problem -- and perhaps the biggest obstacle -- is figuring out exactly what a "Valuable Player" is. The voting standards on the official ballot are open to multiple interpretations. Ryan admitted that the concept is nebulous:

How much stock are we really supposed to put in the word "valuable"? Is "valuable" actually a synonym for "irreplaceable," and if that's the case, why should a player be penalized if his team has an adequate substitute for him, thus rendering him less "irreplaceable"? I must tell you I have a real problem when people harp on this word "valuable," as opposed to, for example, "outstanding." I'd like to introduce another word: worthy. Most Worthy Player. How does that sound?"

Not much better. "Worth" is no easier to pin down than "value".

Here's my definition of the MVP: If I was building a team for 2007, my MVP would be the guy I would choose first if I was guaranteed his 2006 performance.

I looked at ten worthy contenders -- Jeter, David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Travis Hafner -- and looked at how they did in three categories: hitting, fielding, baserunning. (Johan Santana will get some much-deserved votes, and he's in my Top 10, but I'm looking only at non-pitchers.)

Here are some basic hitting stats and each player's ranking among AL hitters (I've listed them by OPS):

           AVG  R   OBP  R   SLG  R    OPS  R
Hafner    .308 17  .439  2  .659  1  1.097  1
Ramirez   .321  8  .439  1  .619  4  1.058  2
Ortiz     .287 38  .413  7  .636  2  1.049  3
Thome     .288 37  .416  5  .598  5  1.014  4
Dye       .315 12  .385 12  .622  3  1.006  5
Giambi    .253 71  .413  6  .558  7   .971  6
Mauer     .347  1  .429  3  .507 20   .936  7
Morneau   .321  7  .375 18  .559  6   .934  8
Rodriguez .290 32  .392  9  .523 14   .914 13
Jeter     .343  2  .417  4  .483 29   .900 15

Jeter finished second in the AL in batting average and 4th in OBP, but his lack of power gives him the lowest OPS of these 10 players. His slugging percentage was a distant 29th -- 176 points behind Hafner.

Of Jeter's 214 hits, 158 of them -- 74% -- were singles. By comparison, Hafner had 47% (66 of 140), Ortiz 47% (75 of 160) and Manny 56% (81 of 144). Mark Loretta, who appeared to hit only singles this year, had 79% (143 of 181).

Baseball Reference's Top 10 in OPS+ (which is park-adjusted):

Hafner    183
Ramirez   168
Ortiz     164
Thome     156
Giambi    154
Dye       152
Mauer     144
Guerrero  144
Thomas    141
Morneau   140

Jeter came in at 138.

Runs Created as calculated by Baseball Reference, The Hardball Times and ESPN (and each player's AL ranking):

           BR  R   THT  R    ESPN  R
Jeter     123  8   138  1   128.2  3
Ortiz     146  1   127  2   141.8  1
Thome     122  9   124  4   122.8  5
Morneau   125  6   121  5   119.7  8
Hafner    130  2   121  6   124.4  4
Dye       128  3   120  8   120.4  7
Rodriguez 116      117  9   113.5 13
Ramirez   124  7   112 15   116.7 11
Giambi    100      111 16   106.5 20
Mauer     114      106 20   107.6 19

THT says its formula is "the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact", so I ranked the hitters according to them.

Grady Sizemore was #3 at THT (124), #4 at BR (128) and #2 at ESPN (134.1). ... And even though he missed all of September, Hafner did amazingly well.

Runs Created per 27 Outs (ranked according to THT):

           BREF    THT  R   ESPN  R
Hafner    10.77   10.4  1  10.31  1
Ramirez   10.24    9.9  2   9.64  2
Thome      9.15    9.6  3   9.21  4
Jeter      7.58    9.1  4   7.90  7
Giambi     7.71    9.0  5   8.22  6
Dye        8.77    8.8  6   8.25  5
Ortiz      9.50    8.6  7   9.23  3
Mauer      8.23    8.4  8   7.76  8
Morneau    7.92    8.1  9   7.59  9
Rodriguez  7.18    7.8 11   7.03 15

Jeter had the third-most PA in the AL (715), so this rate stat bumps him down a bit. According to BR, a lineup of 9 Hafners would score nearly 3.2 more runs per nine innings than a lineup of 9 Jeters -- and Giambi was actually the top hitter in the Yankees' lineup. (What's with the differences in Jeter's and Giambi's THT numbers?)

Baseball Prospectus' Equivalent Average (EQA) (and Al ranking):

            EQA   AL
Hafner     .355    1
Ramirez    .342    2
Ortiz      .334    3
Thome      .328    4
Giambi     .326    5
Mauer      .321    6
Dye        .320    7
Jeter      .316    8
Rodriguez  .311   10
Morneau    .308   13

EQA measures "total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching." EQA also considers baserunning, but not fielding, and "is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average".

SABR member Bill Gilbert compiled the 2006 leaders in Bases Per Plate Appearance (BPA). This is the formula: (TB + BB + HB + SB - CS - GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF). Here are the 14 MLB players with a BPA over .600 in 2006:

Hafner    .703
Howard    .700
Pujols    .694
Ortiz     .681
Beltran   .667
Thome     .659
Berkman   .658
Ramirez   .654
Dye       .637
Giambi    .634
Soriano   .632
Sizemore  .605
Johnson   .604
Cabrera   .604

and six more with a .600+ BPA, but who did not have enough plate appearances to qualify:

Luke Scott     .667
Barry Bonds    .647
Chipper Jones  .629
Ryan Theriot   .621
Chris Duncan   .615
David Ross     .613

(This was Manny's 9th straight season over .600.) I emailed Gilbert and asked for the BPA of the other AL players we are looking at. Putting them together:

Hafner    .703
Ortiz     .681
Thome     .659
Ramirez   .654
Dye       .637
Giambi    .634
Sizemore  .605
 
Morneau   .573
Rodriguez .573
Jeter     .562
Mauer     .535

Regarding Mauer, Gilbert wrote: "Not much power and too many GIDP."

One stat in which Jeter led the AL was Win Shares, a complicated formula invented by Bill James. Here are each player's batting and fielding WS and their rounded total:

          Bat  Fld  WS    WSP
Jeter    28.0  4.6  33   .882
Mauer    21.3  9.5  31   .970
Ortiz    29.3  0.1  29  1.093
Ramirez  26.9  2.1  29  1.008
Morneau  25.5  2.0  27   .765
Ibanez   24.0  3.1  27   .737
Guillen  21.5  4.3  26   .769
Dye      23.7  2.8  26   .812
Thome    25.9  0.0  26  1.089
Young    18.5  7.7  26   .679

Hafner, Sizemore, Santana and Slappy all had 25 WS. (In the NL, Pujols (39), Beltran (38), Berkman (34) and Cabrera (34) topped every AL player.) Note: James explains that Win Shares do not discriminate against players on losing teams on pages 168-173 of his book Win Shares.

The WS stats come from The Hardball Times, which says it has "tweaked James' original formula somewhat".

Jeter topped the AL in WS, but when we look at Win Shares Percent (WSP) -- a measure of the player's contribution, given his playing time -- he drops to 5th on our list.

Jeter also led the AL in Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), which measures "the number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances." However, when we adjust for playing time and look at VORPr (runs per game), Jeter slips a bit:

          VORP Rank   VORPr  Rank
Jeter     80.5   1    .498    3
Hafner    79.7   2    .611    1
Ortiz     76.8   3    .494    4
Mauer     66.9   5    .470    5
Ramirez   66.1   7    .523    2
Dye       64.6   9    .458    6
Thome     62.6  11    .445    8
Morneau   52.0  13    .336   16
Rodriguez 51.6  14    .339   15
Giambi    47.4  19    .363   14

Looking back at Bob Ryan's article asserting Jeter's worthiness as MVP, he wrote:

The numbers are all in order, right down to categories such as hitting with runners in scoring position and late-inning pressure averages. ... In a season of great Yankees turmoil, he was the absolute rock, the absolute leader, the absolute irreplaceable man. He was, in short, the most worthy player in the American League.

Here is how our candidates hit with runners in scoring position (minimum 150 PA and ranked by AL OPS):

           AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  AL
Hafner    .305  .472  .718 1.189   1
Thome     .336  .468  .690 1.158   2
Giambi    .271  .485  .662 1.147   3
Dye       .351  .421  .716 1.138   4
Ramirez   .323  .471  .605 1.076   5
Jeter     .381  .482  .581 1.063   6
Mauer     .360  .497  .544 1.041   9
Morneau   .323  .401  .575  .976  13
Ortiz     .288  .429  .538  .967  14
Rodriguez .302  .431  .508  .939  19

Jeter finished #2 in batting average (behind Michael Young, .412), #3 in OBP and #10 in slugging. His slugging with RISP was 43 points higher than Ortiz. (Albert Pujols led all major leaguers with a .535 OBP, .802 SLG, and 1.337 OPS with RISP -- and his .397 BA was second to Young.)

"Close and Late" are plate appearances "in the seventh or later inning with the score tied or one team leading by a run; or with the tying run on base, at the plate, or on deck." Again, here are our 10 hitters (minimum 75 PA ranked by AL OPS):

           AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  AL
Hafner    .411  .522  .821 1.343
Ortiz     .314  .443  .756 1.199   1
Ramirez   .262  .459  .525  .983   7
Giambi    .222  .421  .556  .977   8
Dye       .299  .351  .582  .933
Morneau   .299  .343  .540  .884  15
Thome     .188  .409  .469  .878  16
Mauer     .288  .419  .452  .871  17
Jeter     .325  .434  .434  .868  18
Rodriguez .237  .326  .368  .694  56

Hafner (69) and Dye (73) did not have 75 PA, but I put them in the OPS ranking. This confirms Ortiz's standing as a guy who delivers when tight games are in the late innings. Thome and Giambi don't hit but they walk a lot -- and Slappy doesn't do much of anything.

A hitter's RBIs are subject to how many of his teammates are on base ahead of him. BP has a stat called OBI% -- the percentage of all runners on base batted in. Here are our MVP candidates and how they finished in the AL (with PA, ROB (runners on base for the player) and OBI (RBI-HR)):

           PA  ROB OBI   OBI%  AL
Morneau   661  469  96  20.5%   1
Hafner    564  382  75  19.6%   4
Jeter     715  444  83  18.7%   8
Mauer     608  397  71  17.9%  11
Dye       611  430  76  17.7%  13
Thome     610  389  67  17.2%  15
Ortiz     686  485  83  17.1%  18
Giambi    579  410  70  17.0%  21
Ramirez   558  406  67  16.5%  27
Rodriguez 674  534  86  16.1%  32

Is this a better definition of clutch? If so, Jeter tops Papi. Jeter and Ortiz each drove in 83 teammates, but look at their opportunities: even though Ortiz had 29 fewer trips to the plate than Jeter, he batted with 41 more runners on base. When it came to driving in runs, Jeter took better advantage of his situations than Ortiz.

More comparison of Jeter and Ortiz:

        AVG  OBP  SLG   OPS  OPS+  EQA
Jeter  .343 .417 .483  .900  138  .316
Ortiz  .287 .413 .636 1.049  164  .334
 
        RS  RBI  BB  K   RC RC/27  VORP
Jeter  118   97  69 102 123  7.58  79.2
Ortiz  115  137 119 117 146  9.50  75.8

Ortiz makes up for the .056 difference in batting average (which says a single and a home run are equal) by drawing 50 more walks, thus making their OBPs roughly the same. Ortiz was obviously the better slugger, creating 23 additional runs in 29 fewer plate appearances. EQA gives Jeter credit for his stolen bases, but Ortiz still comes out comfortably ahead.

Manny and Jeter:

          AVG  OBP  SLG   OPS  OPS+  EQA
Jeter    .343 .417 .483  .900  138  .316
Ramirez  .321 .439 .619 1.058  168  .342
 
          RS  RBI   BB   K    RC  RC/27  VORP
Jeter    118   97   69  102  123   7.58  79.2
Ramirez   79  102  100  102  124  10.24  66.1

Re Jeter's 2006 OPS+ of 138: Manny has never had an OPS+ lower than 143 in any of his 12 full seasons. Ramirez's overall numbers are even more impressive when you learn that Boston's #5 hitters -- the guys batting behind Manny -- were far and away the worst in the AL -- putting up .231/.321/.362 line.

Fielding

Since several of our candidates -- Ortiz, Hafner, Thome -- are DHs, we should ask whether Jeter's MVP chances are helped by his performance at shortstop.

One note: Fielding percentage is just about worthless -- and has been for more than 100 years. A player will not make an error on a ball he can't get to -- he also won't record an out. I'll quickly note that of the nine qualifying AL shortstops, Jeter was 4th in fielding percentage -- middle of the pack -- before we all agree that FP should be immediately retired and never mentioned again (are you listening, Remdawg?).

Fielding statistics remain imprecise, but they are improving. Two of the best known are Range Factor (putouts and assists divided by innings) and Zone Rating (the percentage of balls fielded in the player's defensive zone):

            INN     TC   PO  A   E    RF   ZR
Peralta    1275.1  710  235 459 16  4.90 .817
Young      1356.1  747  241 492 14  4.86 .836
Uribe      1130.0  604  217 373 14  4.70 .868
Tejada     1294.2  675  238 418 19  4.56 .824
Berroa     1117.1  573  188 367 18  4.47 .791
Betancourt 1374.1  701  251 430 20  4.46 .806
Guillen    1235.0  634  178 428 28  4.42 .832
Cabrera    1321.2  645  253 376 16  4.29 .818
Jeter      1292.1  610  214 381 15  4.14 .810

Jeter finished last in RF and 7th in ZR. Among 24 qualifying MLB shortstops (playing 2 of every 3 games), Jeter was 19th. Alex Gonzalez did not play enough to meet the qualifications, but here are his fielding stats (and Alex Cora's):

           INN     TC   PO  A   E    RF   ZR
Jeter     1292.1  610  214 381 15  4.14 .810
Gonzalez   966.1  475  163 305  7  4.36 .863
Cora       434.0  239   66 167  6  4.83 .859

An infielder's RF will be affected if his team's pitching staff allows a higher percentage of ground balls or fly balls, but in Jeter's 11 full seasons, his RF has been above the league average only 4 times (1996, 1997, 2004, 2005). In the last 7 years, Jeter's RF/9 was higher than the league average only once (2005).

Finally, Jhonny Peralta played 17 fewer innings than Jeter in 2006, but he got to 100 more balls. And although Jeter played 162 more innings than Juan Uribe, he handled only six more chances. At a minimum, Jeter would have to be above average in the field to get any push towards the MVP, and I don't see any evidence that he was.

Jeter is a very smart and good baserunner. Here are the stolen base stats for our players, ranked by steals:

           SB  CS   SB%
Jeter      34   5  87.2
Rodriguez  15   4  78.9
Mauer       8   3  72.7
Dye         7   3  70.0
Morneau     3   3  50.0
Giambi      2   0 100.0
Ortiz       1   0 100.0
Hafner      0   0   0.0
Thome       0   0   0.0
Ramirez     0   1   0.0

The breakeven point for stealing second base is approximately 73% -- anything lower than that, and the player is harming his team. Jeter is clearly the best baserunner of the gang. But a player's baserunning is already factored into his EQA -- and Jeter was 8th in the AL in EQA.

Back in September, Bill Reynolds of the Providence Journal wrote:

What's harder to see is the resolve, the grit, the fact that Jeter always comes to play, through the good times and the bad, the fact that it's always been Jeter that gives this team it's [sic] toughness. Maybe there is no more enduring image of his heart than the night against the Red Sox in 2004 when he chased a foul ball into the box seats, the ultimate example of hustle.

Maybe ... but that was 2.5 years ago. (And why couldn't you see that "Jeter always comes to play"? He's right there on the field!)

Reynolds notes that although Jeter has

benefited by being on a great team throughout his career ... by always being a part of the ensemble, never having to carry a team on his back, ... never been a guy who puts up the big power numbers, the kind of hits that get on highlight films. ... [But] Jeter is having one of his best seasons, in a year when this Yankee team so needed him to have one. Are there any better MVP credentials than that?

Yes, Bill, there are better credentials. Ortiz had a great season when his team really needed him to have one. Same with all of the other players. Every team needs its best players to have as great a season as possible -- that's pretty basic stuff. Jeter can be as gritty, tough and hearty as humanly possible, but if he doesn't create runs for his team, it won't make a damn bit of difference in the standings.

There was no player in the AL with significant fielding skills that also put up strong batting numbers, so I went mostly with hitting. A fewmonths ago, when I first mentioned doing a long MVP post, I had Hafner and Ramirez in mind for MVP. And even though they both missed games in September -- Hafner broke his right hand on September 1 -- they remain my top 2 choices.

Hafner has led the AL in OPS+ for each of the last three seasons, and he's gotten better each year: 158, 170, 183. And despite Ortiz's numerous game-winning hits, Manny gets the nod for simply being a more productive hitter.

1. Hafner
2. Ramirez
3. Ortiz
4. Santana
5. Jeter