October 17, 2008

99.4 Does Not Equal 100

After B.J. Upton's double made it 7-0 and Jonathan Papelbon intentionally walked Carlos Pena, the Tampa Bay's Win Expentancy was 99.4%.

99.4%!

Eric Van, SoSH's "What the hell was that!!!!!":
What happened tonight so surpassed the normal that it became surreal; it entered a realm where ordinary human emotions were insufficient.

27 comments:

phil said...

Good morning, indeed.

phil said...

It's interesting/amusing that Lowrie had the worst WPA of any Sox batter for the game as a whole, even though it was his lead off double in the seventh that started the comeback -- it's just that down seven runs at the time, his double was nearly worthless at the time (.009).

Ortiz similarly ended the night with a negative WPA despite his seventh inning dong (worth only .064).

GK said...

For a manager who was peddling nonsense like nine equals eight.
I am sure for him 99.4 equals 100

FenFan said...

Best game I have ever witnessed at Fenway in person - better than Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, Game 4 of the 2003 ALDS, Game 4 of the 1999 ALDS, Pedro's first home start in a Red Sox uni, Patriots' Day in 1998... I don't know about those "pink hats" that left their seats in the middle of the seventh but I plan to use my World Series tickets. Never... never... NEVER... give up!

Now that I've come to see that l-girl is right and that the TBS announcers are worse than the Buck-McCarver two-headed monster (still hard to imagine it being worse!), how were they from the seventh inning on?

L-girl said...

For a manager who was peddling nonsense like nine equals eight.
I am sure for him 99.4 equals 100


Maddon's a good manager. Nine equals eight is not inherently stupider than Cowboy Up. I know that wasn't the manager, but there are a lot of silly things in baseball.

Like taking a .6% chance of winning and turning the whole world upside down!!!

L-girl said...

Now that I've come to see that l-girl is right and that the TBS announcers are worse than the Buck-McCarver two-headed monster

LOL, thank you. I never could have believed it either, but baseball is full of the unbelievable, as you saw - once again - last night!!

Thank [something] we had radio. Jon Miller was an idiot, but Morgan was actually good.

Yes, it's true.

FenFan said...

...Morgan was actually good

Wait... Joe Morgan... good? The world has turned upside down! I may just go play the lottery now. LOL

9casey said...

Jere , I had one question about last nights game, were those boos for Papi, I thought they were just saying Youk......

James said...

Observations about attending yesterday's game:

Don't buy TBS's stupid hype; working over by Gate B with a TV to watch, I saw all of the people "leaving." And heading to the concession stands before they close. And heading back to their seats. There was not, ever, a rush to the gate. There were a few people leaving, but it was much less than say, a 4-0 regular season game in the 8th.

The fans last night were pretty damn good. The booing, etc., was uncalled for (hearing Wakefield booed a few nights ago was especially awful). That said, it was very, very loud, and the majority of the fans were saying things like "see you next week" to me even in the 6th and 7th before the rally.

Furthermore, I saw a lot of my regulars there, a lot of season ticket holders and very knowledgeable fans that I get to talk to on a daily basis.

I got off work during the bottom of the 7th, and got to watch the rest of the game (although my paralyzing superstition did not allow me to leave the spot, so I watched it on television with the security guards and a couple of janitorial workers, who are probably the very best group of people with whom to watch it). It was a fucking blast, and we've got at least two more home games left, I think.

Joe Morgan flashed me a peace sign after I saluted him. I don't like his commentary, but he's a hall-of-famer and probably the best second baseman of all time, and really does seem like a very decent fellow, and has a very nice smile, so I'm pretty pumped about that. My buddy got Harold Reynolds' autograph on his bandana, and he seemed like a pretty decent guy as well, but he's got kind of a non-decent history, allegedly.

What a blast!

Pepe Lepew said...

I had to work last night, so I missed the 7th inning. I got to see the 8th and 9th innings, though. Amazing! I'm still sort of floating around today.

s1c said...

Due to an a**hole of a bil I only got to see the last three innings last night. What a comeback!!!

905 comments I see for the game thread. Hopefully will be able to join the thread tomorrow.

99.4 that is so sweet!!!

A Conformer said...

I don't want to get too much ahead of ourselves, but if the chances to win last night's game were 0.6%, the chances to win the series must have been less than 0.1%. I'm pretty sure if the Sox do end up winning it, at least statistically, it might trump the 2004 comeback.

Anybody know how to figure out what was the lowest momentary probability of a series win against the MFY?

phil said...

Well, the probability going into game 4 of the ALCS in 2004 was zero: no one had ever done it, in all the years of trying.

redsock said...

no, it can't be zero, because it was still possible, though never done.

down by three games, trailing 4-3, three outs away from being swept -- to come back and win the series.

when millar stepped in the box: maybe .0001%???? (a guess)

when game 4 was done and the sox won, the % must have gone up a bit -- 5%? -- because they were starting game 5 at 0-0 and had 9 innings to play.

redsock said...

as thomas boswell so wonderfully wrote, the yankees choked away the pennant four times in 72 hours.

redsock said...

I hope everyone checks out that thread I linked to. Great, great stuff.

Iridescence said...

2004 was against the MF Yankees, it was overcoming 86 years of futility ....Nothing will ever top that as far as a comeback. But if the Sox do pull out this series it will still be pretty damn awesome and amazing...

Re: Chippy Caray, did anyone else notice that he got caught up in the rally and actually seemed excited when the Red Sox did something good? I still hate him though.

As far as comparing McCarver and Caray, I don't know, it's like a reverse Ruth vs Mays argument

Both McCarver and Caray are just so incredibly annoying and bad that it is hard for me to say which one is actually worse.

A Conformer said...

2004 was against the MF Yankees, it was overcoming 86 years of futility ....Nothing will ever top that as far as a comeback. But if the Sox do pull out this series it will still be pretty damn awesome and amazing...

That's why I said "at least statistically". The probabilities don't care if it's the MFY or the Pirates, and if it's 86 or 860 years without a championship. In no way am I suggesting that a comeback here would be better or more special.

redsock said...

2004 exists in its own special universe. It can never be topped. By anything. It simply can't. That's just the way it is.

But 2007 was fantastic. And last night was completely insane.

tim said...

Unbelievable. That's all I can say. Amazingly un. believable.

As for Caray, seems like hes just calling it as he sees it, getting excited when the fans are - maybe its a home thing? Probably not though, they probably told him to tone down his bias after the second game. Because he's been pretty well behaved for the three in Boston.

ish said...

I was happy my radio was about a half-second ahead of the TV. So I got everything just about real time.

ish said...

And... that was the wrong thread. But who cares.

9casey said...

The thing about last nights game is that series dictated that the game was over , they started out hot and us cold, pitchers getting shelled...At least during the Yankee series in game 4 we were never down 7 in the 7th....read the thread, people are talking about who are you going to root for the rays or the phillies, we never do that here....it was bizzare....

ish said...

2004 exists in its own special universe. It can never be topped. By anything. It simply can't. That's just the way it is.

But 2007 was fantastic. And last night was completely insane.


2004 was so different it cannot be compared to other years. It was so unique - the only way to be able to compare it is if something very similar happened again.

2007 we knew the Red Sox were the best team in baseball, so it made it strange going down 3-1. Coming back it was just an amazing display of power and timely hitting.

This year the Rays in the playoffs have overmatched Boston. We all know this. It showed all the way until the 7th inning. But one thing that characterizes this season for the Red Sox is their depth. Unfortunately we're at the point where we can't afford anything else to happen. But all season when a key guy went down with an injury or went into a slump, there was always somebody else to pick up the slack. Theo also helped a ton when he picked up Jason Bay, Paul Byrd, and Mark Kotsay.

Where would the Red Sox be without Paul Byrd, even? What if Game 3 had to be a bullpen game the rest of the way? Byrd ate innings and saved the bullpen. He gave the Red Sox quality starts down the stretch they otherwise might not have gotten.

Kotsay being able to play first base. Plain and simple. Although Sean Casey would have been fine over there. I think the Red Sox like Kotsay because he looks to be more of an athletic player who is capable of giving you that extra step defensively, some extra speed offensively, and let's face it. Kotsay is one of those guys who looks like a raw hitter. Just one of those average guys who knows how to swing a bat. Like Drew.

ish said...

Joe Posnanski wrote a blog entry from after the game last night that is relatively short, and very very sweet. Cool read. He also bashes Chip Caray!

9casey said...

ish said...

Where would the Red Sox be without Paul Byrd, even? What if Game 3 had to be a bullpen game the rest of the way? Byrd ate innings and saved the bullpen. He gave the Red Sox quality starts down the stretch they otherwise might not have gotten.



That game 3 with him was overrated..and if game 3 had been a bullpen game the rest of the way that would have meant we were still in it.....I'm sorry I dont remember quality starts form him ...I don't know why I am poo-pooing it , but people try to compare it with Wake in 04' it was just different.....

L-girl said...

read the thread, people are talking about who are you going to root for the rays or the phillies, we never do that here.

I was thinking about that today. I went back and checked - we all said "would root for". No one said "will root for". There's a difference. Maybe only seen by a word freak like me, but one says WHEN it happens and the other says IF.

So we were bad but not that bad!