PECOTA Projected Standings

Clay Davenport, Baseball Prospectus:

...[W]e're playing the entire season from day one, and we're using the depth-chart projections to set the team's strength (though since the depth charts also use a strength-of-schedule adjustment to calculate the records you see, I had to temporarily undo that). We can set a win percentage for each game, and by essentially rolling dice in the computer, we can determine who wins or loses each game. We can do that for an entire season, or a dozen seasons, or a million seasons -- and yes, our usual number is a cool million.

                        Div.     Wild    Total
AL East      W      L   Title%   Card%   Postseason%
Red Sox    98.0   64.0   38.9    24.0    62.0
Yankees    95.9   66.1   32.1    24.5    56.5
Rays       91.3   70.7   20.3    21.1    41.4
Blue Jays  81.2   80.8    6.4    10.1    16.5
Orioles    73.9   88.1    2.3     4.5     6.8

This is the powerhouse division; they very nearly rated as having the three most likely playoff teams in the AL, even though only two of them can make it. An Eastern team took the AL Wild Card in a staggering 84 percent of the simulations; even the Orioles earn a higher wild-card chance than any team in the other two divisions. All that playing against each other comes at a cost, however, as each team is losing 3-4 games against an average strength of schedule.