February 20, 2009

PECOTA Projected Standings

Clay Davenport, Baseball Prospectus:
...[W]e're playing the entire season from day one, and we're using the depth-chart projections to set the team's strength (though since the depth charts also use a strength-of-schedule adjustment to calculate the records you see, I had to temporarily undo that). We can set a win percentage for each game, and by essentially rolling dice in the computer, we can determine who wins or loses each game. We can do that for an entire season, or a dozen seasons, or a million seasons -- and yes, our usual number is a cool million.
                        Div.     Wild    Total
AL East W L Title% Card% Postseason%

Red Sox 98.0 64.0 38.9 24.0 62.0
Yankees 95.9 66.1 32.1 24.5 56.5
Rays 91.3 70.7 20.3 21.1 41.4
Blue Jays 81.2 80.8 6.4 10.1 16.5
Orioles 73.9 88.1 2.3 4.5 6.8
This is the powerhouse division; they very nearly rated as having the three most likely playoff teams in the AL, even though only two of them can make it. An Eastern team took the AL Wild Card in a staggering 84 percent of the simulations; even the Orioles earn a higher wild-card chance than any team in the other two divisions. All that playing against each other comes at a cost, however, as each team is losing 3-4 games against an average strength of schedule.

8 comments:

andy said...

I sure hope. We do have a pretty solid team that is getting deeper as we go. I do think some of the expectations for Lowell are too high.

Benjamin said...

Damon and Nady are having schadenfreuderific problems, since their assets have been frozen because of that scam artist Allen Stanford:

"I can't pay bills right now," Damon was quoted as saying by foxsports.com. "That started on Tuesday. I had to pay a trainer for working out during the offseason. I told him, 'Just hold on for a little bit and hopefully all this stuff gets resolved.'"

"I didn't have money with Stanford, but all my credit card accounts are frozen right now because of that situation," Nady was quoted as saying by foxsports.com. "I'm trying to get an apartment in New York. I can't put a credit card down to hold it."

redsock said...

I prefer to think it's connected to a terrorist-related money-laundering investigation.

Benjamin said...

Well, Stanford was possibly laundering money for a Mexican drug cartel, so you aren't too far off.

9casey said...

Does any rich person earn thier money legally these days......

I saw Barack was out speaking and Bullying Mayors today spend your money correctly , or there will be consequences.....Ah Barack , how about those banks how are they dong with the money..next I heard he may go after the Girl Scouts for eating all the cookies.....

I have such little in faith in anything these days...I am putting all my hope on FY, he makes me happy, I hope he stays just the way he is and stays away from controversey, it would be nice to see my son take him as his first favorite Red Sock....

redsock said...

The most amazing thing here is that the Blue Jays took the WC 10% of the time.

L-girl said...

Does any rich person earn thier money legally these days......

Did they ever?

Stefan said...

The most amazing thing here is that the Blue Jays took the WC 10% of the time.

Yeah, it's very difficult to imagine the Jays being better than two out of three of the Sox, Rays, and MFY... maybe if the Rays and MFY get into a brawl with massive casualties (aside: my money's on the Rays vs. the old dudes).