February 10, 2009

Playing Pepper 2009

Daniel, a Cardinals fan writing at C70 At The Bat, contacted a blogger for each major league team and posed five questions about the upcoming season. I got tabbed for the Red Sox.

I like his opening: "You know, at one point I kinda liked the Red Sox." ... Heh, then 2004 happened! Anyway, you can find my comments here. Discuss.

5 comments:

Jeff in PA said...

Good Q&A. Your comments about Papi echo my own. If he bounces back this year and everyone else is career-average, we should score enough runs to be in a position to win. Then it just comes down to pitching.

Benjamin said...

Meanwhile, Tejada has been charged with lying to Congress and has reportedly reached a plea deal. What're the odds Clemens doesn't get his chance?

James said...

Good stuff.

I've got to agree with you about Youk. PECOTA spit out some seriously weird numbers for him this year. Last year's PECOTA projected the following numbers:

2008: .265/.368/.458
2009: .272/.379/.466

Now, Youk absolutely crushed the ball in 2008. His real 2008 line:

.312/.390/.569.

Compare that to the projection:

Proj: .265/.368/.458
Real: .312/.390/.569
Diff: +.047/+.022/+.111

He absolutely crushed his projections last year, so you'd think his 2009 projections would be improved versus the numbers PECOTA spit out last year.

You'd be wrong:

2008 PECOTA for 09: .272/.379/.466
2009 PECOTA for 09: .267/.360/.480

A year after Youk beat his batting average projection by a lot, beat his OBP projection by a good amount, and absolutely demolished his power projection, his batting average projection falls, as does his OBP projection, while his SLG projection ticks a little upwards.

All in all, his OPS projection FALLS a year after beating his OPS projection by 130+ points.

Something screwy is going on there. Youk deserves better.

nick said...

Jere is a geek and we love him for it.

Benjamin said...

Happy Pitchers & Catchers day, everybody.