December 21, 2009

The Curious Case of Jacoby Ellsbury

According to various fielding metrics, Jacoby Ellsbury was the worst center fielder in all of baseball last year.

And, last week, almost on cue, fans at mlb.com chose Ellsbury as the Defensive Player of the Year. However, LBJ had a very solid season in the field in 2008. So what gives? SoSH discusses the matter.

Jason Varitek talks about his role on the 2010 Red Sox.
I don't know exactly how that's all going to play out. Knowing going into it, [Victor Martinez] is going to play the majority of time. For me, I kind of got in that role last year, so I had two months to get used to it.
A scout says the Red Sox offered Manny Delcarmen to Texas for rookie reliever Guillermo Moscoso. If true, I guess Texas said no.
Example
Two posts from SoSH:

bombdiggz:
Assuming that every Red Sox lineup holdover — Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and J.D. Drew — performs at his 2009 level next year, and that Cameron, Kotchman and Scutaro performed at their career averages, the Red Sox starting nine would project (according to the amazing baseballmusings.com Lineup Analysis tool) to score 5.646 runs per game. Over a full year, that would project to a whopping 915 runs.
phragle:
[Buchholz] throws five plus pitches (fastball, sinker, change, slider, curve) any of which can be un-hittable on a given night. What other young studs throw five plus pitches in the AL? Greinke, Verlander and Hernandez, they all throw fastball, sinker, slider, curve, change. [What] if I told you Buch's stuff is as dangerous as theirs, would you believe me? I hope so, because it is. Out of all the qualified AL starters, Jon Lester (2010 CYA winner, callin' it right now) generates less contact than any one, followed by Verlander, Sabathia, Hernandez and Greinke. Point? Clay's contact percentage is in between Hernandez and Greinke. Thats filthy, filthy stuff. Add that to his ground ball percentage and you have bona fide stud on your hands.

13 comments:

Amy said...

Reading this makes me feel better about the team overall.

As you know, I don't really comprehend all the statistical formulas used to evaluate players, especially on defense. Ellsbury is fast and sure made some amazing catches, so it's not surprising that the fans chose him based on pure dramatic effect. I guess that the stats show something else. It depends on how reliable you think those stats really are.

Patrick said...

I don't know what to believe about Ellsbury's defense, but I do know how I feel about Buchholz.

KEEP BUCHHOLZ!!!

I'm so pumped about our rotation next year, I just want to get on a roof top and shout it!

9casey said...

the Red Sox starting nine would project (according to the amazing baseballmusings.com Lineup Analysis tool) to score 5.646 runs per game



too bad it saya the mfy's will score over 6 runs per game, and I put Melky in left.....

9casey said...

Patrick said...


I'm so pumped about our rotation next year, I just want to get on a roof top and shout it!



I see why you could be excited but at this point they are all 3 to 4 era guys there is no '99- '03 Pedro in the group.....

redsock said...

but at this point they are all 3 to 4 era guys

If you mean 3.00 to 4.00, we'll win the East with that.

Edward Lee said...

Ellsbury should be an above-average CF, but his amazing speed is somewhat mitigated by the fact that a lot of times he gets an awful read on the ball.

9casey said...

redsock said...


If you mean 3.00 to 4.00, we'll win the East with that.




Hope so, my point was they are all very good just not to the point of domination yet, and I still think to win the east we need another power bat.

The offseason is my time to be negative and contrary....then on truck day my glass is half full.

nick said...

Gotta say all this Hot Stove stuff is just swell and all--I enjoy reading everyone throwing numbers around like they mean something (of course they do)--but I am very ready for actual baseball.

of course, there's a whole damn winter to go. Hmmm... World Baseball Classic anyone?

Ish said...

Now you can take Melky out of left because The Dud is heading south to Atlanta in favor of Javier Vazquez.

Now all we need to do is sign Johnny Damon so he can hit another grand slam off of him.


Unrelated: How does this sound for a crazy pipe dream? It'd be great if this happened but I can assure you it just won't, but here goes:

Trade Buchholz and Ellsbury to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez, then sign Jason Bay. Crazy, huh?

I'm still concerned about Buchholz's confidence on the mound and being able to put the ball where he needs to. I don't want to see him throwing to first base when the guy is standing on the bag because he's not ready to throw home yet.

It doesn't matter how good of stuff you have, if you don't have the mental fortitude you're not going to be successful.

Patrick said...

That Vazquez deal caused me to audibly groan.

If you are into Fangraph's Win stats, Javy is a 5 win player, and Melky, a 1.5 win player.

They potentially just picked up 3-4 more wins and a nastier playoff rotation. Fuck them.

9casey said...

Patrick said...
That Vazquez deal caused me to audibly groan.




He is a .500 pitcher are 4th and 5th are .600 pitchers and , no worries.....

Zenslinger said...

Vazquez had a career year last year -- in the NL. It's a great trade for them -- how it is they end up picking up good pieces seemingly for free, I don't know -- but I don't think he's going to be anything to fear. Between his regression and his return to the AL, he'll be mediocre.

9casey said...

Zenslinger said...
Vazquez had a career year last year -- in the NL. It's a great trade for them -- how it is they end up picking up good pieces seemingly for free,



Salary dump, the braves didn't want to pay a 500 pitcher 11 mil