It's very limited ... [This] shows us how things would look if nothing changed from now until April. Which won't happen. ... [T]hese projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2011 rosters. ... [P]rojection systems are inherently limited. ... Did I mention that it's still too early to do this, and that it shouldn't be taken seriously? ... Did I mention that it's too early for this to be taken too seriously?I agree with all of that -- and I'll add that injuries to a few key players can also sink a team's chances -- but these looked so good, I'm sharing them anyway!
W L RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/- Red Sox 98 64 856 690 54.6% 15.6% + 9 38 -54 Yankees 89 73 835 740 23.2% 21.7% - 6 -24 47 Rays 87 75 707 640 17.9% 18.7% - 9 -95 - 9 Blue Jays 74 88 693 737 2.6% 5.8% -11 -62 9 Orioles 70 92 723 813 1.8% 2.9% + 4 110 28The columns are average projected wins, losses, runs scored, and runs allowed; % of times winning the division and wild card; change in projected wins, runs scored, and runs allowed versus 2010 totals.
The average of the 10,000 seasons has the Red Sox improving by nine wins, scoring 38 more runs while allowing 54 fewer runs. By comparison, the Yankees project to score 24 fewer runs, allow 47 more, and decline by six games (though they would win the wild card). Boston had the best record in baseball, with Philadelphia (96-66) and St. Louis (90-72) as the only other teams to average more than 90 wins per season.
This is what CAIRO has to say right before the 2010 season began:
W L RS RA Yankees 97.7 64.3 881 708 Rays 94.2 67.8 783 655 Red Sox 93.9 68.1 824 685And actual finish:
W L RS RA Rays 96 66 802 649 Yankees 95 67 859 693 Red Sox 89 73 818 744
5 comments:
Nice :)
And it's NEVAH too early to hear reports like this. It may be too early to put much faith in them, but not too early to read them....
Takes a bit of the edge off of this nasty winter weather
It may be too early to put much faith in them, but not too early to read them....
I will take your "NEVAH too early" as permission to post other stuff I find. :>)
Not that it means anything at all, really, but me likey the CAIRO!
So if I'm reading this correctly, Cairo projects Baltimore to make the playoffs 470 of those 10,000 seasons? That seems awfully high.
Cairo projects Baltimore to make the playoffs 470 of those 10,000 seasons? That seems awfully high.
Well, 10,000 seasons is a long time. That would work out to making the playoffs roughly 5 times (and winning the East twice) in the 110-year history of the AL. I wonder what the standings look like in those seasons.
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