January 24, 2011

More Projected Standings

SG of RLYW looked at the AL East's projected standings now that the Rays have signed Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez and the Blue Jays traded Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera:
            W     L     RS   RA   Div     WC   Post
Red Sox    94.9  67.1  834  693  45.5%  16.3%  61.8%
Yankees    90.3  71.7  819  739  25.4%  17.4%  42.8%
Rays       88.1  73.9  736  663  19.8%  15.1%  34.9%
Blue Jays  77.9  84.1  721  738   5.6%   5.6%  11.2%
Orioles    75.5  86.5  732  796   3.8%   4.0%   7.8%
The results from the earlier sims (here) had Boston's lead in the East at approximately nine games. These projections cut that to 4.6 games. Interestingly, the Yankees' chances of making the post-season actually dropped from the earlier projections, from 44.9% to 42.8%.

The Truck heads south in 15 days.


mattymatty said...

Maybe the most surprising aspect of those simulations is the Orioles making the playoffs just over 7% of the time. How that team has the pitching to overcome three of the Sox, Yankees, Rays and Jays I don't understand.

allan said...

Assuming he ran the same amount of sims, 10,000 seasons is a lot of time/chances.

Jere said...

Considering the O's beat the Red Sox 50% of the time and the AL champion Rangers 60% of the time in 2010, I think 7% seems plausible. I'd probably bet on the other 93& happening though.

Meanwhile, has anyone heard from ish/rob? I heard it's like 20 below in Maine!

mattymatty said...

The O's finished 66-96 last season so even if they played the Sox and Rangers evenly they made up for it by losing a heck of a lot to every other team. 7% still seems high to me. I went back and looked at the earlier projection and the O's had a 4.7% chance before. I'm not sure what happened to raise their chances by 3%, especially when you consider that two other teams in their division improved themselves since then.

allan said...

Maybe the other one did not properly account for the ASF*.

*: Awesome Showalter Factor!

(though you would think the Kirk Effect would be stronger...)

Pokerwolf said...

4.6 games sounds like a large lead for the AL East. I'm expecting the difference to be 2 or 3 at the most.

johngoldfine said...

Jere--it was 15 below outside my house in Swanville Maine yesterday morning and a bit of a breeze, but ish/rob lives in southern maine, I believe, and that is pretty much a wimpy suburb of Boston with near tropical temperatures compared to the real Maine where we hardy types live.

Benjamin said...

Toronto flipped Napoli to Texas for Frank Francisco, so a day later those sims are already out of date.

allan said...

so a day later those sims are already out of date

But we are still winning the East.

Benjamin said...

But we are still winning the East.

And we might be winning it even more.