January 3, 2011

Early RLYW CAIRO Sims Look Very Nice

About a week ago, RLYW's SG posted the results of his super-early 2011 projections. He played out the season 10,000 times with his CAIRO v0.3 method, with a dump truck full of caveats:
It's very limited ... [This] shows us how things would look if nothing changed from now until April. Which won't happen. ... [T]hese projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2011 rosters. ... [P]rojection systems are inherently limited. ... Did I mention that it's still too early to do this, and that it shouldn't be taken seriously? ... Did I mention that it's too early for this to be taken too seriously?
I agree with all of that -- and I'll add that injuries to a few key players can also sink a team's chances -- but these looked so good, I'm sharing them anyway!
           W   L   RS   RA   Div    WC    W+/-  RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox   98  64  856  690  54.6%  15.6%   + 9    38   -54
Yankees   89  73  835  740  23.2%  21.7%   - 6   -24    47
Rays      87  75  707  640  17.9%  18.7%   - 9   -95   - 9
Blue Jays 74  88  693  737   2.6%   5.8%   -11   -62     9
Orioles   70  92  723  813   1.8%   2.9%   + 4   110    28
The columns are average projected wins, losses, runs scored, and runs allowed; % of times winning the division and wild card; change in projected wins, runs scored, and runs allowed versus 2010 totals.

The average of the 10,000 seasons has the Red Sox improving by nine wins, scoring 38 more runs while allowing 54 fewer runs. By comparison, the Yankees project to score 24 fewer runs, allow 47 more, and decline by six games (though they would win the wild card). Boston had the best record in baseball, with Philadelphia (96-66) and St. Louis (90-72) as the only other teams to average more than 90 wins per season.

This is what CAIRO has to say right before the 2010 season began:
           W     L     RS    RA
Yankees   97.7  64.3  881   708
Rays      94.2  67.8  783   655
Red Sox   93.9  68.1  824   685
And actual finish:
           W     L     RS    RA
Rays      96    66    802   649 
Yankees   95    67    859   693 
Red Sox   89    73    818   744

5 comments:

SoSock said...

Nice :)
And it's NEVAH too early to hear reports like this. It may be too early to put much faith in them, but not too early to read them....
Takes a bit of the edge off of this nasty winter weather

allan said...

It may be too early to put much faith in them, but not too early to read them....

I will take your "NEVAH too early" as permission to post other stuff I find. :>)

tim said...

Not that it means anything at all, really, but me likey the CAIRO!

Jeffrey said...

So if I'm reading this correctly, Cairo projects Baltimore to make the playoffs 470 of those 10,000 seasons? That seems awfully high.

allan said...

Cairo projects Baltimore to make the playoffs 470 of those 10,000 seasons? That seems awfully high.

Well, 10,000 seasons is a long time. That would work out to making the playoffs roughly 5 times (and winning the East twice) in the 110-year history of the AL. I wonder what the standings look like in those seasons.