AL East
Blue Jays 20
Rays 20
Orioles 2
Yankees 1
Red Sox 0
Wild CardsRangers 24
Rays 13
Blue Jays 12
A's 11
Angels 10
Yankees 5
Red Sox 4
Orioles 4
Royals 2
Cleveland 1
AL PennantTigers 27 Rays 7 Angels 5 Blue Jays 4NL Pennant
Nationals 29 Reds 6 Dodgers 4 Atlanta 4World Series
Tigers 17 Nationals 16 Angels 3 Reds 3 Rays 2 Blue Jays 1 Dodgers 1AL MVP
Trout 14 Cabrera 9 Cano 5 Longoria 4 Bautista 4 Pujols 3 Fielder 2 Beltre 1 Cespedes 1AL Cy Young Award
Verlander 23 Price 5 Darvish 5 Weaver 4 Hernandez 3 Sale 1 Moore 1 Johnson 1AL Rookie of the Year
Wil Myers 12 Jurickson Profar 11 Jackie Bradley, Jr. 5 Aaron Hicks 4 Bruce Rondon 3 Leonys Martin 3 Allen Webster 1 Chris Archer 1 Kevin Gausman 1 Trevor Bauer 1 Dylan Bundy 1Looking at ESPN's AL East preview, there is some good news and some bad news. The good news is that the Yankees are picked to finish fourth. The bad news? Boston is fifth.
93 wins if ... New manager John Farrell mends clubhouse relations, a revitalized Jon Lester and a revamped pen (Joel Hanrahan and Koji Uehara averaged 10-plus K/9 in 2012) form the pitching core, and Will Middlebrooks' bat provides pop.Here are the projected East standings using ESPN's Dan Szymborski's "ZiPS projection system, in which seasons are simulated a million times using a Monte Carlo method":
79 wins if ... The changes aren't enough, Mike Napoli's injury woes continue, Shane Victorino's .245 BA in L.A. doesn't improve, and Ryan Dempster doesn't enjoy the AL East.
Unpredictability score -- 1.49: Boston did a mini-rebuilding job in hopes of competing again in 2013, but pitching was the big problem. If Lester and Clay Buchholz don't return to form at the top of the rotation, the winter additions will have been for naught.
AL East
Rays 10
Blue Jays 6
Orioles 3
Red Sox 1
Yankees 0
Wild CardsRangers 10
Blue Jays 7
Rays 4
A's 4
Angels 3
Yankees 3
Red Sox 2
White Sox 2
Orioles 2
Royals 2
Cleveland 1
AL PennantTigers 13 Rays 4 Angels 3World Series
Nationals 9 Tigers 5 Angels 3 Rays 1 Dodgers 1 Reds 1
Red Sox: 5th, 4th, 5th, 5th, 5th, 5th, 5th Yankees: 3rd, 5th, 4th, 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 3rdThe Providence Journal's three baseball writers' picks:
Red Sox: 3rd, 3rd, 5th Yankees: 4th, 4th, 2ndAlso: Jayson Stark asked "18 executives and scouts to nominate their baseball Elite Eight -- the eight teams with the best shot to win this year's World Series":
Fifteen different teams got votes. ... You know this is shaping up to be an all-time crazy season when the Red Sox get zero votes and the Yankees only get one. I remind you we've never had a season in the wild-card era where both of those teams missed the postseason. Obviously, people across the sport now believe that's more than just possible. It's likely.
17 comments:
In the wild card era, the Braves have made the postseason 13 out of 18 years. The Red Sox made it 9 times. Why don't they talk about how the "Yankees and Braves" might not make it? No season where the Yanks and Sox missed the playoffs in the WC era? Same can be said about Yanks and Brewers. And Yanks and Cubs. (And Yanks and Rays, Angels, White Sox, Dodgers, Phillies.)
So do you have your own predictions, Allan?
I like having low expectations. Much less stressful.
(One can always find the bright side if one tries....)
I am entering the W-L contest, if that's what you mean. All entries to be posted after midnight tonight.
As far as baseball-wide predictions, I have none.
Amy: My guess was one win more than yours.
I meant overall rankings, but the W-L prediction works also. I can't remember my exact prediction, but I remember thinking this year I was entering with my honest guess, as opposed to last year when I decided not to express my pessimistic views and would likely have won if I had!
My predictions is the Sox get a wild card spot and then get hot as hell for three weeks.
I admire your optimism. Hope you're right.
Amy, when I saw your question on FB - "Does anybody seriously believe the Sox will play in October?" - I was going to answer "Allan does". But I figured he'd tell you himself. :)
"3-week hot streak not guaranteed" (/smallprint)
There should be no problem finding the bright side right now. It's spring. Baseball is back. This is cause for celebration.
It's not just me. Other people, too. ... Well, a couple!
Red Sox Magic #: 163
I can't believe your guess was only one win more than mine and yet you think they will be the wild card. Either I guessed higher than I remember, or you think the whole league will have a pretty mediocre season!
Well, one of the 2 wild cards. I guess that means I'm saying they are finishing second, probably behind Tampa.
Wins: I said 87, you said 86.
Yeah, I remember now. I couldn't bring myself to guess below .500, but somehow I divided 162 and got 86. Back to third grade for me. I really meant 81---too late to change??
Not too late. Deadline is midnight.
Just sent you an email to confirm.
Thanks!
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