Any More Questions? That's how Bob Hohler begins his game story. He also quotes Gabe Kapler: "I just hope people recognize that you can't panic when he doesn't have an incredible night. It's unfair to Pedro to take a decent night and turn it into a nightmare. He sets such a high standard for himself that it's difficult for people to appreciate it when he has just an OK night for Pedro, which is a tremendous night for many, many people around the league."
Although only a few of his pitches topped 90 mph, Martinez dominated the Jays. His curveball -- MIA in Baltimore -- was especially sharp. In the 6th and 7th innings, he threw only 8 and 9 pitches, respectively. That allowed him to pitch into the 8th, at which point Keith Foulke needed only 11 pitches to get the final 4 outs. The crowd was roaring -- chanting "Ped-!ro, Ped-ro!" -- and exploding on every strike call. And this was only the sixth game of the season.
Terry Francona was booed when he went to get Martinez after he struck out Catalanotto, but it was the right move. "Even before the inning started I had determined that I would go to Foulke before Wells batted." Francona on leadoff man Cesar Crespo: "I like the idea of a left-handed bat facing Halladay ... Crespo can bunt, he can run, and this way it doesn't throw the rest of the lineup into chaos."
Boston has to place Daubach on waivers within the next 10 days, then another team would have 48 hours to claim him. Epstein said Daubach would be willing to join Pawtucket if he is not claimed. "[I]t's a move we had to make. ... We can't be in a situation where if we go to extra innings, all of a sudden, boom, we don't have anyone to take the ball."
Damon was greeted at the players' parking lot by a group of fans wearing long wigs, fake beards and "Damon's Disciples" T-shirts (with "We have Jesus on our side" printed on them). X-rays of Damon's left knee showed no bone damage. He will likely return Tuesday. ... At the end of Edes's Baseball Notes column is a cool story of how Daubach met his wife Christine in Baltimore. ... Baseball Primer's Looking Forward To 2004: Red Sox and Yankees. ... Statistical analysis in baseball goes back to Henry Chadwick in the 1860s.
A nervous Curt Schilling faces his former Arizona teammate Miguel Batista at 2:05 pm.
April 11, 2004
This PDB Goes to 11. The White House has released a slightly redacted copy of the August 6, 2001 PDB (pdf). There is some damning information and it exposes some more White House lies, but there is nothing that would warrant the kind of resistance the administration has shown in keeping the memo away from anyone, no matter how high his or her security clearance. Why?
Well, the August 6 PDB might actually be 11½ pages long -- and we are simply being thrown a bone. An October 2002 story in the German weekly Die Zeit states that the PDB was actually 11½ pages long, not the 1½ pages usually reported (and released). ... The article can be read here. A snip:
"Crawford, Aug. 6, 2001. U.S. president George W. Bush is on vacation. He wants to spend the whole month at his ranch in Texas. Every morning, however, he still receives his Presidential Daily Brief, or PDB, wherein the CIA informs the president about the country's security situation. On this morning, the report is straight from the CIA director. His PDB runs 11 and one-half printed pages, instead of the usual two to three, and carries the title, "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." Therein the CIA chief explains that al Qaeda has decided to carry out attacks within the United States, and that presumably members of the terrorist organization have been in the country for some time. It is unclear whether the CIA director informed the president about the statements of arrested al Qaeda members. According to their confessions, the terrorist organization for some time has been thinking about hijacking planes and using them as missiles."
Some people have wondered if the article includes a typo -- and 11½ really should be 1½.
First, there is another reference to this PDB being 10-12 pages long in the New York Times of November 11, 2003: "People call it a lot of things: the world's most exclusive newspaper, a supersecret product of the Central Intelligence Agency and a document so sensitive that widespread dissemination would endanger lives. ... Whatever the definition, the document is the innocuously named President's Daily Brief, a 10- to 12-page report produced overnight by the CIA. In recent weeks, it has become the hottest property in Washington. Two powerful bodies are demanding to see it: the nonpartisan commission investigating the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the Senate Intelligence Committee..."
Second, in a discussion of the memo at Democratic Underground, the original German article was found. The key sentence: "Sein PDB-Papier hat statt der sonst üblichen zwei bis drei diesmal elfeinhalb bedruckte Seiten und trägt die Überschrift Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." ... One poster comments: "The elfeinhalb highlighted translates as eleven and a half. Impossible to get a 'one' out of that." Someone else offers a literal translation: "His PDB-Paper has instead of the otherwise usual two to three this time eleven-and-a-half printed pages and bears the title Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S."... A third poster: "I speak German not fluently, but enough to get by. It definitely says 11.5 printed pages, normally 2 or 3."
So. What are the chances the media will press the White House to clear up this discrepancy?
I'd also like to see this memo: "One such CIA briefing, in July 2001, was particularly chilling and prophetic. It predicted that Osama bin Laden was about to launch a terrorist strike 'in the coming weeks,' the congressional investigators found. The intelligence briefing went on to say: 'The attack will be spectacular and designed to inflict mass casualties against U.S. facilities or interests. Attack preparations have been made. Attack will occur with little or no warning.' ... (One source says the recipients of the briefing included Bush himself.)"
Quote of the Day: "I will not permit any course that leaves America undefended." Bush, August 29, 2001 speech to the American Legion.
Well, the August 6 PDB might actually be 11½ pages long -- and we are simply being thrown a bone. An October 2002 story in the German weekly Die Zeit states that the PDB was actually 11½ pages long, not the 1½ pages usually reported (and released). ... The article can be read here. A snip:
"Crawford, Aug. 6, 2001. U.S. president George W. Bush is on vacation. He wants to spend the whole month at his ranch in Texas. Every morning, however, he still receives his Presidential Daily Brief, or PDB, wherein the CIA informs the president about the country's security situation. On this morning, the report is straight from the CIA director. His PDB runs 11 and one-half printed pages, instead of the usual two to three, and carries the title, "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." Therein the CIA chief explains that al Qaeda has decided to carry out attacks within the United States, and that presumably members of the terrorist organization have been in the country for some time. It is unclear whether the CIA director informed the president about the statements of arrested al Qaeda members. According to their confessions, the terrorist organization for some time has been thinking about hijacking planes and using them as missiles."
Some people have wondered if the article includes a typo -- and 11½ really should be 1½.
First, there is another reference to this PDB being 10-12 pages long in the New York Times of November 11, 2003: "People call it a lot of things: the world's most exclusive newspaper, a supersecret product of the Central Intelligence Agency and a document so sensitive that widespread dissemination would endanger lives. ... Whatever the definition, the document is the innocuously named President's Daily Brief, a 10- to 12-page report produced overnight by the CIA. In recent weeks, it has become the hottest property in Washington. Two powerful bodies are demanding to see it: the nonpartisan commission investigating the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the Senate Intelligence Committee..."
Second, in a discussion of the memo at Democratic Underground, the original German article was found. The key sentence: "Sein PDB-Papier hat statt der sonst üblichen zwei bis drei diesmal elfeinhalb bedruckte Seiten und trägt die Überschrift Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." ... One poster comments: "The elfeinhalb highlighted translates as eleven and a half. Impossible to get a 'one' out of that." Someone else offers a literal translation: "His PDB-Paper has instead of the otherwise usual two to three this time eleven-and-a-half printed pages and bears the title Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S."... A third poster: "I speak German not fluently, but enough to get by. It definitely says 11.5 printed pages, normally 2 or 3."
So. What are the chances the media will press the White House to clear up this discrepancy?
I'd also like to see this memo: "One such CIA briefing, in July 2001, was particularly chilling and prophetic. It predicted that Osama bin Laden was about to launch a terrorist strike 'in the coming weeks,' the congressional investigators found. The intelligence briefing went on to say: 'The attack will be spectacular and designed to inflict mass casualties against U.S. facilities or interests. Attack preparations have been made. Attack will occur with little or no warning.' ... (One source says the recipients of the briefing included Bush himself.)"
Quote of the Day: "I will not permit any course that leaves America undefended." Bush, August 29, 2001 speech to the American Legion.
April 10, 2004
Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 1. All is good.
Pedro is The Man! Manny, Ortizzle and Bellhorn all go deep. Foulke nails it down.
Pedro is The Man! Manny, Ortizzle and Bellhorn all go deep. Foulke nails it down.
A Clean Slate. I could bitch about a lot of things right now. Like Malaska should have started the 8th, Burks shouldn't be hitting third, Kapler should get more time in RF than Millar, and Tito should resist the impulse to overmanage (he may be nervous, which is understandable). ... But I'm going to write off yesterday's loss as an ugly by-product of no sleep and turn the page tonight.
There is a lot of bad news, though. Damon fouled a ball off his left knee yesterday and left the game with a golf-ball size bruise. "I can't move. I'm probably slower than Millar right now." Damon will likely miss two games, but hopes to rise on the third day. ... Mendoza was put on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder tendinitis and Malaska was called up from Pawtucket. It turns out Malaska last threw in a simulated game on Tuesday (he didn't pitch in the PawSox opener Thursday). He damn well could have thrown more than 10 pitches on Friday.
Arroyo on his start: "I was definitely disappointed, especially knowing those guys got back so early. I wished I had kept the score a little bit lower. If we would have squeaked it out it would have been a little bit better. ... I didn't feel as well as I would have liked ... I didn't have my best stuff out there, but that's going to happen a lot, especially if you go out there 35 times."
It's nice to see the Yankees losing. Brown and Vazquez have been magnificent, but Mussina has struggled, Contreras has never shown he can be consistent and DePaula stumbled out of the gate today. New York managed only four hits and lost their second in a row to Chicago (9-3 and 7-3). They are 3-4.
High praise for the right field roof seats. ... Pedro and Halladay at 7:05 pm.
There is a lot of bad news, though. Damon fouled a ball off his left knee yesterday and left the game with a golf-ball size bruise. "I can't move. I'm probably slower than Millar right now." Damon will likely miss two games, but hopes to rise on the third day. ... Mendoza was put on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder tendinitis and Malaska was called up from Pawtucket. It turns out Malaska last threw in a simulated game on Tuesday (he didn't pitch in the PawSox opener Thursday). He damn well could have thrown more than 10 pitches on Friday.
Arroyo on his start: "I was definitely disappointed, especially knowing those guys got back so early. I wished I had kept the score a little bit lower. If we would have squeaked it out it would have been a little bit better. ... I didn't feel as well as I would have liked ... I didn't have my best stuff out there, but that's going to happen a lot, especially if you go out there 35 times."
It's nice to see the Yankees losing. Brown and Vazquez have been magnificent, but Mussina has struggled, Contreras has never shown he can be consistent and DePaula stumbled out of the gate today. New York managed only four hits and lost their second in a row to Chicago (9-3 and 7-3). They are 3-4.
High praise for the right field roof seats. ... Pedro and Halladay at 7:05 pm.
Wow! Check out these two articles from Asia Times regarding the 9/11 investigation. ... I know most of this stuff from my own research, but it is amazing to see it all laid out in a mainstream venue. ... The US media may one day report these facts, but we'll probably be a lot older or dead when it happens.
One tidbit: Two of the defendants in the $1 trillion lawsuit filed in August 2002 by the families of the victims of September 11 are former business partners of Commission chairman Thomas Kean. One of those men -- Saudi billionaire Khalid bin Mahfouz -- is Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law. Kean severed his ties to bin Mahfouz only three weeks before Bush appointed him to head the Commission.
One tidbit: Two of the defendants in the $1 trillion lawsuit filed in August 2002 by the families of the victims of September 11 are former business partners of Commission chairman Thomas Kean. One of those men -- Saudi billionaire Khalid bin Mahfouz -- is Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law. Kean severed his ties to bin Mahfouz only three weeks before Bush appointed him to head the Commission.
The August 6 PDB. Washington Post: "The classified briefing delivered to President Bush five weeks before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks featured information about ongoing al Qaeda activities within the United States, including signs of a terror support network, indications of hijacking preparations and plans for domestic attacks using explosives, according to sources who have seen the document and a review of official accounts and media reports over the past two years." ... New York Times: "President Bush was told more than a month before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, that supporters of Osama bin Laden planned an attack within the United States with explosives and wanted to hijack airplanes, a government official said Friday.
If you've been paying attention, this ain't news. Way back on May 19, 2002: "The top-secret briefing memo presented to President Bush on Aug. 6 carried the headline, 'Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US,' and was primarily focused on recounting al Qaeda's past efforts to attack and infiltrate the United States, senior administration officials said."
So we see the media reported on this almost 2 years ago, but then promptly ignored it or "forgot" it existed -- one quick mention and then own the meory hole -- covering up for the Bush administration as long as they could. ... Damn liberal media.
The evolution of this document has been fascinating.
1. White House says the document is so sensitive that even the Congressional Joint Inquiry into 9/11 cannot see it.
2. White House refuses to allow the 9/11 Commission to see it.
3. White House agrees to let two members of Commission see it at the White House.
4. White House agrees to let all 10 members of Commission see it.
5. White House refuses to declassify PDB.
6. White House agrees to declassify PDB.
7. White House may release parts of the memo publicly.
And these guys accuse Kerry of flip-flopping?
If you've been paying attention, this ain't news. Way back on May 19, 2002: "The top-secret briefing memo presented to President Bush on Aug. 6 carried the headline, 'Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US,' and was primarily focused on recounting al Qaeda's past efforts to attack and infiltrate the United States, senior administration officials said."
So we see the media reported on this almost 2 years ago, but then promptly ignored it or "forgot" it existed -- one quick mention and then own the meory hole -- covering up for the Bush administration as long as they could. ... Damn liberal media.
The evolution of this document has been fascinating.
1. White House says the document is so sensitive that even the Congressional Joint Inquiry into 9/11 cannot see it.
2. White House refuses to allow the 9/11 Commission to see it.
3. White House agrees to let two members of Commission see it at the White House.
4. White House agrees to let all 10 members of Commission see it.
5. White House refuses to declassify PDB.
6. White House agrees to declassify PDB.
7. White House may release parts of the memo publicly.
And these guys accuse Kerry of flip-flopping?
As Troops Die, Bush Tapes Appearance On Fishing Show. Under a recent headline -- "12 Marines killed" -- we learn that Bush held a 20-minute telephone conference call to discuss the slaughter of Americans in Iraq. See? He is too working! ... "On Saturday, Bush and his father were to go fishing at the ranch's bass pond with a crew from the Outdoor Life Network's 'Fishing with Roland Martin.' The White House approached the network about coming to film Bush, who is eager to cultivate an image as a sportsman with the millions of voters who hunt and fish."
Bush is now on his "33rd visit to his ranch since [taking office, totaling all or part of 233 days] ... Adding his 78 visits to Camp David and his five visits to Kennebunkport, Maine, Bush has spent all or part of 500 days in office at one of his three retreats, or more than 40 percent of his presidency."
Catherine Austin Fitts, Former Assistant Secretary of Housing under George HW Bush to Condoleezza Rice: "You are a liar. ... You are guilty of criminal gross negligence. If you want to catch a terrorist today, you need look no further than your own mirror." ... And Uggabuuga on Rice.
Bush is now on his "33rd visit to his ranch since [taking office, totaling all or part of 233 days] ... Adding his 78 visits to Camp David and his five visits to Kennebunkport, Maine, Bush has spent all or part of 500 days in office at one of his three retreats, or more than 40 percent of his presidency."
Catherine Austin Fitts, Former Assistant Secretary of Housing under George HW Bush to Condoleezza Rice: "You are a liar. ... You are guilty of criminal gross negligence. If you want to catch a terrorist today, you need look no further than your own mirror." ... And Uggabuuga on Rice.
Blue Jays 10, Red Sox 5. Annoying -- highly annoying. Arroyo was decent enough, I suppose -- he did leave with a 5-4 lead. I'm curious why Malaska pitched only the 7th (a 1-2-3 10-pitch inning) and an overworked Timlin was trotted out in the 8th to piss the game away (with 37 pitches).
I hope Tito is not of the same "why use two pitchers when you can use four" school as his Predecessor. It seemed that during the Orioles series, he was. Although if Embree was going to come into Friday's game anyway -- was he slotted for the 9th? -- he should have been up in the pen earlier than the seventh batter in the 8th. ... I am confident that, unlike his Predecessor, Francona will learn from his mistakes.
I also hope everyone went to bed early last night. ... More later.
I hope Tito is not of the same "why use two pitchers when you can use four" school as his Predecessor. It seemed that during the Orioles series, he was. Although if Embree was going to come into Friday's game anyway -- was he slotted for the 9th? -- he should have been up in the pen earlier than the seventh batter in the 8th. ... I am confident that, unlike his Predecessor, Francona will learn from his mistakes.
I also hope everyone went to bed early last night. ... More later.
April 9, 2004
Orioles 3, Red Sox 2 (13). Ugh. Not fun ... but after reading the papers and comments in the game thread, I'm not sure what could have been done differently. Jones got squeezed in the 13th, but couldn't be expected to get any close calls because he simply wasn't throwing strikes. Mendoza was the last reliever in the pen and there was some doubt about whether he was available or not. So Jones ended up being Brenley-ized, working a second inning for the second straight night. His last pitch of the game was his 78th in two days.
There will always be plenty of second-guessing in a 13-inning game. In the 7th, with the game tied 2-2, Francona had Cesar Crespo bat for Doug Mirabelli. Baltimore's starter LHP Matt Riley had begun the inning by walking McCarty and Bellhorn and was up to 98 pitches. Crespo was bunting, something Mirabelli could have done. And if Francona felt he needed to pull Mirabelli, he could have batted Varitek. Crespo failed to get the bunt down and struck out. Varitek batted for the next scheduled hitter -- Pokey Reese -- thus removing Boston's best infielder. Riley walked Varitek to load the bases. BJ Ryan came out of the pen and retired Damon and Mueller on soft line drives. ... Did Francona panic too early? Hard to say, but I think so. However, in his defense, Boston was not hitting. The Sox did not record their fourth hit of the game until the 11th inning.
In the 11th, Ramirez walked with one out. Millar singled to left center and Manny hustled to third. Francona then pulled him for pinch-runner Kapler. Buddy Groom entered the game. Ortiz lined out to second and after Bellhorn walked to load the bases, Crespo struck out. Francona: "I was just trying to win the game. It seemed like the right thing to do at the time. ... I figured Kapler would have a better chance to score on a short sac-fly." ... If Ramirez was quick enough to take 3rd on a ball to left center, he was probably quick enough to tag and score.
The other problem was Bobby Jones, Boston's 6th pitcher of the night. He allowed a lead-off single to Bigbie in the 12th, and after Roberts bunted Bigbie to second and Mora flied to center, Jones intentionally walked Tejada and retired Palmeiro on a grounder to second. ... In the 13th, Jones walked Lopez and after Bautista struck out, he walked Segui, Matos and Bigbie. ... Jones: "I wanted to throw him mostly sliders because that's the pitch that I can get lefties to roll over and get ground balls." However, after all those close pitches and walks, though, there is something to be said about simply throwing a strike and making the batter hit the ball.
Francona said it was Jones or bust. "He was our last pitcher tonight." Jones was surpised to hear that: "I wasn't the last guy." The only reliever left in the bullpen was Ramiro Mendoza, but Francona said Mendoza "made it clear to the medical staff that if we could stay away from him, we needed to." Apparently Mendoza was stiff after pitching Wednesday night. But other accounts say Mendoza wasn't stiff and would have pitched if he had been asked.
Two good things: Wakefield pitching out of man-on-2nd/none-out jams in both the first and second innings (neither runner even advanced to third); and Damon making a perfect throw home in the bottom of the 10th to complete an 8-2 double play to save the game. ... Art Martone on Opening Day at Fenway. ... The Red Sox were scheduled to leave Baltimore about 11:30 last night, but the game did not end until 11:44. The team arrived at the airport at 1:00 am, but their charter was then delayed for another four hours because of a mechanical problem.
Matchups for the Blue Jays series:
Friday: Bronson Arroyo/Ted Lilly
Saturday: Pedro Martinez/Roy Halladay
Sunday: Curt Schilling/Miguel Batista
First pitch: 3:05 pm.
There will always be plenty of second-guessing in a 13-inning game. In the 7th, with the game tied 2-2, Francona had Cesar Crespo bat for Doug Mirabelli. Baltimore's starter LHP Matt Riley had begun the inning by walking McCarty and Bellhorn and was up to 98 pitches. Crespo was bunting, something Mirabelli could have done. And if Francona felt he needed to pull Mirabelli, he could have batted Varitek. Crespo failed to get the bunt down and struck out. Varitek batted for the next scheduled hitter -- Pokey Reese -- thus removing Boston's best infielder. Riley walked Varitek to load the bases. BJ Ryan came out of the pen and retired Damon and Mueller on soft line drives. ... Did Francona panic too early? Hard to say, but I think so. However, in his defense, Boston was not hitting. The Sox did not record their fourth hit of the game until the 11th inning.
In the 11th, Ramirez walked with one out. Millar singled to left center and Manny hustled to third. Francona then pulled him for pinch-runner Kapler. Buddy Groom entered the game. Ortiz lined out to second and after Bellhorn walked to load the bases, Crespo struck out. Francona: "I was just trying to win the game. It seemed like the right thing to do at the time. ... I figured Kapler would have a better chance to score on a short sac-fly." ... If Ramirez was quick enough to take 3rd on a ball to left center, he was probably quick enough to tag and score.
The other problem was Bobby Jones, Boston's 6th pitcher of the night. He allowed a lead-off single to Bigbie in the 12th, and after Roberts bunted Bigbie to second and Mora flied to center, Jones intentionally walked Tejada and retired Palmeiro on a grounder to second. ... In the 13th, Jones walked Lopez and after Bautista struck out, he walked Segui, Matos and Bigbie. ... Jones: "I wanted to throw him mostly sliders because that's the pitch that I can get lefties to roll over and get ground balls." However, after all those close pitches and walks, though, there is something to be said about simply throwing a strike and making the batter hit the ball.
Francona said it was Jones or bust. "He was our last pitcher tonight." Jones was surpised to hear that: "I wasn't the last guy." The only reliever left in the bullpen was Ramiro Mendoza, but Francona said Mendoza "made it clear to the medical staff that if we could stay away from him, we needed to." Apparently Mendoza was stiff after pitching Wednesday night. But other accounts say Mendoza wasn't stiff and would have pitched if he had been asked.
Two good things: Wakefield pitching out of man-on-2nd/none-out jams in both the first and second innings (neither runner even advanced to third); and Damon making a perfect throw home in the bottom of the 10th to complete an 8-2 double play to save the game. ... Art Martone on Opening Day at Fenway. ... The Red Sox were scheduled to leave Baltimore about 11:30 last night, but the game did not end until 11:44. The team arrived at the airport at 1:00 am, but their charter was then delayed for another four hours because of a mechanical problem.
Matchups for the Blue Jays series:
Friday: Bronson Arroyo/Ted Lilly
Saturday: Pedro Martinez/Roy Halladay
Sunday: Curt Schilling/Miguel Batista
First pitch: 3:05 pm.
April 8, 2004
Two Thousand Years Of Willie Mays. That's the title of a short Bill James article I mentioned back on April 5. I said that it had appeared in one of his early Abstracts, but it turns out it was published much later, in The Baseball Book for 1992. (And there's a good reason why we need stats; because personal recollections can be way off the mark.) Anyway, the 2-page bit begins:
"What it is possible for a great player to do in a great year? Suppose that a great player, a Willie Mays or a Joe DiMaggio, hits in good luck for an entire season. What kind of stats could he compile? Suppose that he hits in bad luck for an entire year, what then? ... What if he played forever ... What are the limits here?"
It took James "about three days on my little home computer" to simulate 2,000 seasons of Willie Mays. Here are a few of them:
In 2,000 years, the longest hitting streak Simulated DiMaggio compiled was 48 games. ... Simulated Boggs made repeated runs at .400. In Year 358, Sim Boggs batted .425, breaking Rogers Hornsby's record by .001. James writes: "Think about it: after trying 357 times to hit .400 but failing all 357 times, the simulated Boggs not only hit .400, but cleared it with fourteen hits to spare. It's a Bob Beamon feat."
James calls this whole thing a "silly exercise," but I've always thought it was pretty cool -- and a fantastic example of what is so instructive and entertaining about James's best work. It may be silly on some level -- but it also shows us that flucuations in performance should be expected. ... Jason Giambi hit only .250 last year, but was still in the top 5 in OBP; his low batting average was nothing more than a random fluke. ... Knowing stuff like this, you can then laugh at (or ignore) broadcasters and writers who go on about 6-game hitting streaks or what some batter did in 10 at-bats against a pitcher over 5 seasons. It's completely meaningless.
This little article has always been, for me, a great reason why James should have published a "Best of" of his Abstracts/Baseball Books. ... I also wish James would reprint his very early (late 70s) self-typed and stapled Abstracts in one volume. While a lot of the information would be quite dated by now, the costs of reprinting would be minimal and I know there are thousands of fans who would snap it up sight unseen.
"What it is possible for a great player to do in a great year? Suppose that a great player, a Willie Mays or a Joe DiMaggio, hits in good luck for an entire season. What kind of stats could he compile? Suppose that he hits in bad luck for an entire year, what then? ... What if he played forever ... What are the limits here?"
It took James "about three days on my little home computer" to simulate 2,000 seasons of Willie Mays. Here are a few of them:
Year# AB R H AVG HR RBI
29 583 145 201 .345 50 127
226 562 137 203 .361 45 133
826 559 88 132 .236 21 89
1203 553 90 141 .255 16 79
1800 580 132 198 .341 50 149James concludes that it's possible for a player to hit .360 one year and .240 the next just by random chance. Mays's highest HR and RBI totals were 54 and 155, he never came close to hitting .400 and his longest batting streak was 34 games. ... James then ran 1,000 years of both DiMaggio and Wade Boggs. Here are two consecutive DiMaggio seasons:
Year# AB R H AVG HR RBI
6 592 135 200 .338 38 150
7 553 96 146 .264 18 79James: "Suppose that a real player did this ... won the MVP Award if not the triple crown, and then the next year was an ordinary player. Every explanation under the sun would be offered for his decline, and ultimately one explanation would come to be the accepted one -- he got fat and lazy after a winter of celebration, or he was affected by the absence of X, who hit behind him in his big year ... or even that he began pressing after a slow start. Do you suppose that anybody would write that he was the same player, just hitting in tougher luck? That's my point; that when a player has an off year, even a terrible year, there may not be any reason for it. It may just be the breaks of the game."In 2,000 years, the longest hitting streak Simulated DiMaggio compiled was 48 games. ... Simulated Boggs made repeated runs at .400. In Year 358, Sim Boggs batted .425, breaking Rogers Hornsby's record by .001. James writes: "Think about it: after trying 357 times to hit .400 but failing all 357 times, the simulated Boggs not only hit .400, but cleared it with fourteen hits to spare. It's a Bob Beamon feat."
James calls this whole thing a "silly exercise," but I've always thought it was pretty cool -- and a fantastic example of what is so instructive and entertaining about James's best work. It may be silly on some level -- but it also shows us that flucuations in performance should be expected. ... Jason Giambi hit only .250 last year, but was still in the top 5 in OBP; his low batting average was nothing more than a random fluke. ... Knowing stuff like this, you can then laugh at (or ignore) broadcasters and writers who go on about 6-game hitting streaks or what some batter did in 10 at-bats against a pitcher over 5 seasons. It's completely meaningless.
This little article has always been, for me, a great reason why James should have published a "Best of" of his Abstracts/Baseball Books. ... I also wish James would reprint his very early (late 70s) self-typed and stapled Abstracts in one volume. While a lot of the information would be quite dated by now, the costs of reprinting would be minimal and I know there are thousands of fans who would snap it up sight unseen.
Predictions, Part 8. Some picks from Baseball Prospectus:
BP's Michael Wolverton says the earned run -- "a lame and counterproductive attempt at solving the pitching/fielding conundrum" -- has got to go. And if the rule was being introduced for the first time today, we'd see right away how absurd it is.
First Second Third Fourth FifthJoe Sheehan on the Red Sox: "Their current edges at the back of the rotation--where I expect Bronson Arroyo to be one the season's better stories--and on the bench make the difference. ... Overall, this team is actually better than last year's, with a stronger bullpen and bench, and a deeper rotation less reliant on Pedro Martinez. For the first time since they acquired the skinny right-hander, it's possible to envision a Sox postseason appearance even if Martinez were to miss significant time to an injury. The rest of the team is that good, good enough to be called the best in the American League."
Steven Goldman Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Gary Huckabay Yankees Blue Jays Red Sox Orioles D-Rays
Rany Jazayerli Red Sox Yankees Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Chris Kahrl Red Sox Yankees Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Jonah Keri Yankees Red Sox Orioles Blue Jays D-Rays
Doug Pappas Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Dayn Perry Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Joe Sheehan Red Sox Yankees Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Nate Silver Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Ryan Wilkins Red Sox Yankees Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Mike Wolverton Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Derek Zumsteg Red Sox Yankees Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
World Series
Will Carroll Red Sox over Cubs
Steven Goldman Cubs over Yankees
Gary Huckabay Athletics over Phillies
Rany Jazayerli Red Sox over Astros
Chris Kahrl Red Sox over Cubs
Jonah Keri Athletics over Atlanta
Doug Pappas Astros over Athletics
Dayn Perry Yankees over Astros
Joe Sheehan Red Sox over Phillies
Nate Silver Red Sox over Phillies
Ryan Wilkins Red Sox over Phillies
Derek Zumsteg Athletics over Phillies
BP's Michael Wolverton says the earned run -- "a lame and counterproductive attempt at solving the pitching/fielding conundrum" -- has got to go. And if the rule was being introduced for the first time today, we'd see right away how absurd it is.
An Astute Observation. This should be an interesting subplot this summer. Schilling: "I have never seen -- and I'm not stereotyping everybody in Boston, there's a lot of good writers, there's good people in the media just like any other market -- but I have never seen more people out to create stories on their own in one space in my career, and that's just in this brief time. They think we're stupid, and they don't think we see and pay attention. I've never seen so many anonymous quotes from people in a shorter period of time than I have in the last three days."
After having failed with runners in scoring positions for two games, the bats finally took advantage of some Orioles mental errors last night. In the second inning, Pokey Reese, with runners at first and second and two outs, grounded a ball to Miguel Tejada's right side. Tejada looked towards third base -- in the hopes of forcing Varitek and ending the inning -- but Melvin Mora was nowhere near the bag. Tejada then whipped a throw to first, but Reese beat it out for a single that loaded the bases.
Tejada got a lot of blame for not going to first base immediately, but starter Kurt Ainsworth also failed over five batters (and 22 pitches) to notch that third out. Damon singled home two runs, Mueller singled home two more, Ortiz walked, Ramirez doubled in two runs when centerfielder Luis Matos lost his deep fly ball in the twilight, and Millar singled in the 7th run of the inning.
Derek Lowe pitched fine with the big lead. He faltered in the bottom of the second, but that may have been due to the 30-minute rally his teammates had. Lowe hit Palmeiro to start the inning and got out of a bases loaded jam when Millar made a nice diving stop and fed Lowe at first. ... Lowe allowed single runs in the 3rd and 6th. He was saved from further damage when Damon robbed David Segui of what would have been a 3-run home run. If Damon didn't reach over the left-center field fence and snag that ball, Baltimore would have closed the gap to 7-5 with only one out in the 6th. ... Lowe allowed only three fly ball outs -- and they all came in his last inning of work.
Bobby Jones took over in the 7th and surrendered a home run to Larry Bigbie on his first pitch. After that, Jones threw two innings and allowed only a walk and a single. Ramiro Mendoza pitched the 9th. He gave up a bouncing single to right to Jose Bautista (his first ML at-bat), struck out Jack Cust and got Luis Lopez to ground into a game-ending double play.
I don't understand why Francona is not having Ramirez bat third. And he's not doing a very good idea of explaining it. Is this only going to happen when Nomar is playing? There are various quotes from Manny saying he likes cleanup, but that he also doesn't care where he hits. One quote had him saying he'd like to hit 6th after Millar, so he'd see a lot of fastballs. I didn't understand that one.
Tim Wakefield/Matt Riley at 7:05 pm.
After having failed with runners in scoring positions for two games, the bats finally took advantage of some Orioles mental errors last night. In the second inning, Pokey Reese, with runners at first and second and two outs, grounded a ball to Miguel Tejada's right side. Tejada looked towards third base -- in the hopes of forcing Varitek and ending the inning -- but Melvin Mora was nowhere near the bag. Tejada then whipped a throw to first, but Reese beat it out for a single that loaded the bases.
Tejada got a lot of blame for not going to first base immediately, but starter Kurt Ainsworth also failed over five batters (and 22 pitches) to notch that third out. Damon singled home two runs, Mueller singled home two more, Ortiz walked, Ramirez doubled in two runs when centerfielder Luis Matos lost his deep fly ball in the twilight, and Millar singled in the 7th run of the inning.
Derek Lowe pitched fine with the big lead. He faltered in the bottom of the second, but that may have been due to the 30-minute rally his teammates had. Lowe hit Palmeiro to start the inning and got out of a bases loaded jam when Millar made a nice diving stop and fed Lowe at first. ... Lowe allowed single runs in the 3rd and 6th. He was saved from further damage when Damon robbed David Segui of what would have been a 3-run home run. If Damon didn't reach over the left-center field fence and snag that ball, Baltimore would have closed the gap to 7-5 with only one out in the 6th. ... Lowe allowed only three fly ball outs -- and they all came in his last inning of work.
Bobby Jones took over in the 7th and surrendered a home run to Larry Bigbie on his first pitch. After that, Jones threw two innings and allowed only a walk and a single. Ramiro Mendoza pitched the 9th. He gave up a bouncing single to right to Jose Bautista (his first ML at-bat), struck out Jack Cust and got Luis Lopez to ground into a game-ending double play.
I don't understand why Francona is not having Ramirez bat third. And he's not doing a very good idea of explaining it. Is this only going to happen when Nomar is playing? There are various quotes from Manny saying he likes cleanup, but that he also doesn't care where he hits. One quote had him saying he'd like to hit 6th after Millar, so he'd see a lot of fastballs. I didn't understand that one.
StartersThe Courant reports that Trot Nixon could start some baseball activities in the next few days. Terry Francona said Nixon "jogged for 10 minutes and did some pounding and didn't feel any pain." ... Byung-Hyun Kim threw 30 pitches off the mound Wednesday and could start a minor league rehab assignment the middle of next week.
IP H R ER BB K BF PIT
Pedro 6 7 3 2 1 5 26 93
Schilling 6 6 1 1 1 7 24 109
Lowe 6 7 2 2 2 3 26 95
18 20 6 5 4 15 2.50 ERA
Tim Wakefield/Matt Riley at 7:05 pm.
April 7, 2004
Red Sox 10, Orioles 3. A 7-run second inning. Lowe throws 6 strong innings. Ortiz smashes a 3-run home run to cap the scoring. And Jesus H. Damon goes 5-5. ... Boston is 2-1 and in sole possession of 1st place. Hallelujah!
Francona: No Pedro Problem. Tito: "I'll tell you, I wasn't that shook up about it. Yes, I talked with him this morning, and it's not an issue. I think he felt comfortable with leaving early. We have a policy, but this is not boot camp. These are grown men who work hard every day." ... And: "He was not called in on the carpet. I just wanted to make sure everyone's on the same page." ... And: "As big a deal as it was [to the media], it wasn't earth-shattering [to me]." ... I think we can put this "incident" to rest -- after some words from Bruce Allen.
Keith Foulke on his nine-pitch 9th inning: "This was more my style of pitching today. That stuff down in Florida, I'm not really sure what that was." ... Kevin Millar suffered a bloodied bridge of the nose and a swollen upper lip after colliding with Johnny Damon. He plans to play tonight. .. Manny Ramirez left yesterday's game with a right quadriceps strain and is "day to day." Ramirez said he hurt himself diving back into second base to avoid a tag after David Ortiz singled in the second inning. "I hit the ground pretty hard." ... Is the Manny batting third era over?
Hardball Times: Five questions for the Red Sox and the Yankees. ... Kaz Matsui became the 18th player to hit the first pitch he saw in the major leagues for a home run. He finished the night 3-for-3 with the homer, two doubles, three RBIs and two walks. ... After diving for a foul pop, Twins rookie catcher Joe Mauer needs arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. ... This just in: Michael Kay is still a total dick.
Derek Lowe/Kurt Ainsworth at 7:05 pm.
Keith Foulke on his nine-pitch 9th inning: "This was more my style of pitching today. That stuff down in Florida, I'm not really sure what that was." ... Kevin Millar suffered a bloodied bridge of the nose and a swollen upper lip after colliding with Johnny Damon. He plans to play tonight. .. Manny Ramirez left yesterday's game with a right quadriceps strain and is "day to day." Ramirez said he hurt himself diving back into second base to avoid a tag after David Ortiz singled in the second inning. "I hit the ground pretty hard." ... Is the Manny batting third era over?
Hardball Times: Five questions for the Red Sox and the Yankees. ... Kaz Matsui became the 18th player to hit the first pitch he saw in the major leagues for a home run. He finished the night 3-for-3 with the homer, two doubles, three RBIs and two walks. ... After diving for a foul pop, Twins rookie catcher Joe Mauer needs arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. ... This just in: Michael Kay is still a total dick.
Derek Lowe/Kurt Ainsworth at 7:05 pm.
Bush Goes AWOL (Again). 32 US dead since Sunday and Condoleezza Rice's 9/11 testimony tomorrow. And George Bush has decided to take a vacation. ... Earlier this week, he banned utensils at a dinner/fundraiser because the tinkling might have disrupted his speech, and in Arkansas, he was his usual insulting and nasty self. ... Note: Before 9/11, the hardest-working sock-puppet in politics had spent 42% of his time in office on vacation.
The White House refuses to provide the 9/11 Commission with a speech Rice was set to deliver on September 11, 2001. The Washington Post reported that the speech "contained no mention of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, or Islamic extremist groups." ... This was a public speech. And presumably, Rice awoke that morning all set to deliver it. It must have been in final (or near-final) form. What possible reason could the White House have for refusing to make it available?
More Lies. On March 9, White House spokesman Scott McClellan: "She [Rice] was more than happy to visit with the commission. Only five members actually showed up, despite the fact that it was scheduled for the entire commission." ... USA Today reports: "What McClellan didn't tell reporters was that on Nov. 21 -- long before Rice met with the five commissioners in February -- the White House counsel's office had sent the commission a letter saying no more than three commissioners could attend meetings with White House aides of Rice's rank."
The White House refuses to provide the 9/11 Commission with a speech Rice was set to deliver on September 11, 2001. The Washington Post reported that the speech "contained no mention of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, or Islamic extremist groups." ... This was a public speech. And presumably, Rice awoke that morning all set to deliver it. It must have been in final (or near-final) form. What possible reason could the White House have for refusing to make it available?
More Lies. On March 9, White House spokesman Scott McClellan: "She [Rice] was more than happy to visit with the commission. Only five members actually showed up, despite the fact that it was scheduled for the entire commission." ... USA Today reports: "What McClellan didn't tell reporters was that on Nov. 21 -- long before Rice met with the five commissioners in February -- the White House counsel's office had sent the commission a letter saying no more than three commissioners could attend meetings with White House aides of Rice's rank."
April 6, 2004
More Red Sox Haven Roundtable Discussion. Nine bloggers (including me) answer some questions. Part 2 has been posted. ... Read Part 1 here.
Red Sox 4, Orioles 1. Curt Schilling pitches six strong innings and the bullpen does the rest. But first, take a look at the box score:
"SB: Palmeiro (1, 2nd base off Schilling/Varitek); Burks (1, 2nd base off DeJean/Lopez, J)."
Two stolen bases -- by two 39-year-old players!
Schilling's adrenaline was running high in the first inning. "I over-threw a couple of pitches. ... I realized it right away and tried to settle down. I never felt like I kind of relaxed today and got comfortable." Schilling retired the Orioles in order in the first inning, hitting 93-96 with his fastball. After allowing two singles with one out in the second, he got BJ Surhoff to tap back to the mound for a 1-6-3 double play.
Schilling threw a first-pitch strike to the first 10 Orioles (and 18 of the 24 batters he faced). Baltimore fouled off a lot of pitches (I counted 30) and that was the main reason Schilling's day ended after 109 pitches and six innings. He ended his final inning by striking out Javy Lopez and Jay Gibbons. Schilling's pitch count by innings: 14 11 24 19 20 21.
Alan Embree in the 7th: Segui (bbcf) K, Bigbie (b) F8, Matos 5-3.
Mike Timlin in the 8th: Roberts (bbcbc) 4-3, Mora (bb) F8, Tejada (b) F8.
Keith Foulke in the 9th: Palmeiro (ccb) 6-3, Lopez F9, Gibbons (ccb) K.
On Mora's fly out in the 8th, Damon collided with RF Kevin Millar in right center. Damon hit Millar's nose/mouth with his shoulder. Millar (who hit his first home run of the year in the 4th) seemed only dazed, but he left the game. Manny Ramirez left after 7 innings with a bruised right quad. ... Ramirez, Jason Varitek and Mark Bellhorn walked twice each -- the Red Sox worked a total of 8 walks.
"SB: Palmeiro (1, 2nd base off Schilling/Varitek); Burks (1, 2nd base off DeJean/Lopez, J)."
Two stolen bases -- by two 39-year-old players!
Schilling's adrenaline was running high in the first inning. "I over-threw a couple of pitches. ... I realized it right away and tried to settle down. I never felt like I kind of relaxed today and got comfortable." Schilling retired the Orioles in order in the first inning, hitting 93-96 with his fastball. After allowing two singles with one out in the second, he got BJ Surhoff to tap back to the mound for a 1-6-3 double play.
Schilling threw a first-pitch strike to the first 10 Orioles (and 18 of the 24 batters he faced). Baltimore fouled off a lot of pitches (I counted 30) and that was the main reason Schilling's day ended after 109 pitches and six innings. He ended his final inning by striking out Javy Lopez and Jay Gibbons. Schilling's pitch count by innings: 14 11 24 19 20 21.
Alan Embree in the 7th: Segui (bbcf) K, Bigbie (b) F8, Matos 5-3.
Mike Timlin in the 8th: Roberts (bbcbc) 4-3, Mora (bb) F8, Tejada (b) F8.
Keith Foulke in the 9th: Palmeiro (ccb) 6-3, Lopez F9, Gibbons (ccb) K.
On Mora's fly out in the 8th, Damon collided with RF Kevin Millar in right center. Damon hit Millar's nose/mouth with his shoulder. Millar (who hit his first home run of the year in the 4th) seemed only dazed, but he left the game. Manny Ramirez left after 7 innings with a bruised right quad. ... Ramirez, Jason Varitek and Mark Bellhorn walked twice each -- the Red Sox worked a total of 8 walks.
Early Exits. An email from Jen: "I'm almost 100% sure that Pedro left Fenway before a game ended way back in 1999 or 2000. He started the game, and the Sox scored 10 in the first inning. He went the minimum, showered, and left a note for reporters saying that he left the game before it ended to go spend time with his nephews. Reporters even got a kick out of it and quoted the note in their articles. There was no controversy, no indication that he had broken a rule."
This game didn't ring a bell, so I went to one of the greatest sites on the Internet, Retrosheet. I clicked on the 1999 Red Sox game log and looked for any game in which Boston scored 10+ runs and Pedro was the winning pitcher. In a matter of seconds, I was looking at the box score for June 26.
Jen later wrote: "I searched the Globe archives and found an article about Pedro written by an intern. ... My favorite line is 'Martinez's early exit from the clubhouse is just the type of bold move he isn't afraid to make. Somehow, the best pitcher in baseball finds a way to make people laugh every day, whether he's in the lineup or not.' Typical. They praise him for leaving the clubhouse early."
That line comes at the end. Some other snips:
"Above Pedro Martinez's locker, the nameplate reads: 'Pedro Zawacki.' Rich Zawacki is the name of the Red Sox physical therapist, but his surname fits the clubhouse prankster for other reasons. Yesterday, Martinez reminded us why for the umpteenth time. It seems like a waste of 17 runs when they come on the day The Protector himself is on the mound and a 1-0 lead probably would suffice. Nonetheless, Martinez turned in a five-inning, three-hit, one-run performance and left the building. For real.
"When reporters gathered in the clubhouse after the game, all that was left of Mr. Zawacki was a note that read, 'I felt good today, both physically and mentally. The day belongs to my teammates for their offensive production. Thank you. Love, Pedro.' And just like that, he was gone. Refusing to take the attention away from his deserving teammates, the grandmaster of gags left the stadium with his major league-leading 14th win, a major league-leading 2.08 ERA, and a major league-leading sense of humor. 'That's funny,' said Jason Varitek, who was 3 for 5 with his ninth homer of the season. 'You gotta love that.'"
Hmmm, it appears the "timeless baseball code" Dan Shaughnessy was blabbing about this morning began in July 1999. I know the CHB wasn't defending said code before Pedro came to town. On the redsox.com message board, "scbosoxfan" posted two old Shaughnessy columns from the mid-90s. In one of them -- dated June 11, 1996 -- the columnist notes, without comment, that a pissed off Roger Clemens left a Red Sox game before it ended:
"It's been a long year for everybody in Red Sox Nation. Each individual has a personal worst memory. For Roger Clemens, the low point came Saturday night when he was pulled from a game in the eighth inning with the Sox leading, 2-1. Boston went on to lose, of course, but Clemens wasn't around for the finish. He bolted Fenway before the bullpen blew the lead. ... 'I think we were still winning when I got out of there,' Clemens said last night. 'I know it's the fastest I've ever left the park. I think I snapped at Lou Gorman on the way out the door.'"
Fat Billy went on to bitch about his teammates and their lack of concentration. He also said this in response to a question about being traded in mid-season (1996 was his last year under contract in Boston): "I haven't thought about that. ... I don't know that I could feel right, other than in search for a ring. I couldn't come through Boston in another American League uniform. National League, maybe. I couldn't see myself with Baltimore or New York."
This game didn't ring a bell, so I went to one of the greatest sites on the Internet, Retrosheet. I clicked on the 1999 Red Sox game log and looked for any game in which Boston scored 10+ runs and Pedro was the winning pitcher. In a matter of seconds, I was looking at the box score for June 26.
White Sox 0 10 000 000 - 1 3 1And sure enough, Martinez pitched 5 innings for the victory.
Red Sox 11 03 201 00x - 17 14 0
Jen later wrote: "I searched the Globe archives and found an article about Pedro written by an intern. ... My favorite line is 'Martinez's early exit from the clubhouse is just the type of bold move he isn't afraid to make. Somehow, the best pitcher in baseball finds a way to make people laugh every day, whether he's in the lineup or not.' Typical. They praise him for leaving the clubhouse early."
That line comes at the end. Some other snips:
"Above Pedro Martinez's locker, the nameplate reads: 'Pedro Zawacki.' Rich Zawacki is the name of the Red Sox physical therapist, but his surname fits the clubhouse prankster for other reasons. Yesterday, Martinez reminded us why for the umpteenth time. It seems like a waste of 17 runs when they come on the day The Protector himself is on the mound and a 1-0 lead probably would suffice. Nonetheless, Martinez turned in a five-inning, three-hit, one-run performance and left the building. For real.
"When reporters gathered in the clubhouse after the game, all that was left of Mr. Zawacki was a note that read, 'I felt good today, both physically and mentally. The day belongs to my teammates for their offensive production. Thank you. Love, Pedro.' And just like that, he was gone. Refusing to take the attention away from his deserving teammates, the grandmaster of gags left the stadium with his major league-leading 14th win, a major league-leading 2.08 ERA, and a major league-leading sense of humor. 'That's funny,' said Jason Varitek, who was 3 for 5 with his ninth homer of the season. 'You gotta love that.'"
Hmmm, it appears the "timeless baseball code" Dan Shaughnessy was blabbing about this morning began in July 1999. I know the CHB wasn't defending said code before Pedro came to town. On the redsox.com message board, "scbosoxfan" posted two old Shaughnessy columns from the mid-90s. In one of them -- dated June 11, 1996 -- the columnist notes, without comment, that a pissed off Roger Clemens left a Red Sox game before it ended:
"It's been a long year for everybody in Red Sox Nation. Each individual has a personal worst memory. For Roger Clemens, the low point came Saturday night when he was pulled from a game in the eighth inning with the Sox leading, 2-1. Boston went on to lose, of course, but Clemens wasn't around for the finish. He bolted Fenway before the bullpen blew the lead. ... 'I think we were still winning when I got out of there,' Clemens said last night. 'I know it's the fastest I've ever left the park. I think I snapped at Lou Gorman on the way out the door.'"
Fat Billy went on to bitch about his teammates and their lack of concentration. He also said this in response to a question about being traded in mid-season (1996 was his last year under contract in Boston): "I haven't thought about that. ... I don't know that I could feel right, other than in search for a ring. I couldn't come through Boston in another American League uniform. National League, maybe. I couldn't see myself with Baltimore or New York."
Rumors in St. Louis. I read that the ovation at Busch Stadium for George W. Bush yesterday was louder than the cheers for Stan Musial. I was skeptical. Knowing Bush's aversion to any crowd that isn't hand-picked with adoring fans, I wondered if the White House had bought out the entire stadium. Then I saw this in the St. Louis Post-Disptach: "A somewhat hostile crowd complained mightily about the problems the presidential motorcade caused with regular fans trying to get into the park. A Cards employee tipped moi that the team was so concerned about Bush being booed that they piped in fake applause when he strode out to the mound. [Team president Mark] Lamping flatly denied it."
Taxigate. That's what BDD is calling it. The fact that Pedro Martinez left Camden Yards before Sunday's game was over seems like a small issue, but it's instructive to see each writer's/paper's spin.
MassLive: "Ace leaves team in the hole" -- "Martinez left the Boston Red Sox clubhouse before the end of Sunday night's season-opening game, an act which could lead to authority problems for the team's new manager ... Theo Epstein told the Boston Globe that "Terry will address the issue, and we'll keep it in-house.""
Hartford Courant: "With Respect To Pedro? Francona Already Feeling The Heat" -- "The criticism aimed at Terry Francona in his first big league managerial job with the Phillies was that he didn't lay down the law with the players. By his own admission, he's already guilty of that in Boston. ... [O]ne game into his first season as Red Sox manager, Francona was put on the hot seat by Martinez. And because Martinez isn't talking to the media, his manager and teammates have to speak on his behalf."
Boston Herald: "Francona takes fall for Pedro's early exit" -- "Francona arrived with a reputation for being a 'players' manager,' and Pedro Martinez officially became the first to test the premise ..."
Boston Globe: "Sox: A situation right off the bat" -- "Francona is a self-professed players' manager; that's the perception of the players, as well. Several said in spring training they appreciated the way Francona treated them, and that they never would test him or take advantage. Now the public is waiting to see how Francona handles this, just as it waited to see how Grady Little handled Manny Ramirez's situation last season."
redsox.com: "Francona takes blame" -- "Aware that Pedro Martinez left Camden Yards before the final out of Sunday's Opening Night loss to the Orioles, Red Sox manager Terry Francona said he would discuss the matter with his ace before Tuesday's game. While Francona has a policy about players not leaving before the end of the game, he blamed himself for not communicating this to Martinez ahead of time."
For the CHB, it was manna from heaven: "Why does this stuff always happen with the Red Sox? Why can't it just be about the baseball? Even for one day. ... This act may not seem like much of a big deal to some people, but it's a violation of a timeless baseball code. ... Francona looks weak. ... The manager is covering for his player, which makes for a poor start in some eyes."
Will this become an issue? I doubt it, since Francona, Pedro, Theo, et al. will simply stop talking about it. Of course, various writers may want to harp on it all year long. ... In the words of one Sock, "Nobody said anything about it [Martinez's departure] that I know of. ... I don't think it's a big issue, but I'm sure it will turn into one."
MassLive: "Ace leaves team in the hole" -- "Martinez left the Boston Red Sox clubhouse before the end of Sunday night's season-opening game, an act which could lead to authority problems for the team's new manager ... Theo Epstein told the Boston Globe that "Terry will address the issue, and we'll keep it in-house.""
Hartford Courant: "With Respect To Pedro? Francona Already Feeling The Heat" -- "The criticism aimed at Terry Francona in his first big league managerial job with the Phillies was that he didn't lay down the law with the players. By his own admission, he's already guilty of that in Boston. ... [O]ne game into his first season as Red Sox manager, Francona was put on the hot seat by Martinez. And because Martinez isn't talking to the media, his manager and teammates have to speak on his behalf."
Boston Herald: "Francona takes fall for Pedro's early exit" -- "Francona arrived with a reputation for being a 'players' manager,' and Pedro Martinez officially became the first to test the premise ..."
Boston Globe: "Sox: A situation right off the bat" -- "Francona is a self-professed players' manager; that's the perception of the players, as well. Several said in spring training they appreciated the way Francona treated them, and that they never would test him or take advantage. Now the public is waiting to see how Francona handles this, just as it waited to see how Grady Little handled Manny Ramirez's situation last season."
redsox.com: "Francona takes blame" -- "Aware that Pedro Martinez left Camden Yards before the final out of Sunday's Opening Night loss to the Orioles, Red Sox manager Terry Francona said he would discuss the matter with his ace before Tuesday's game. While Francona has a policy about players not leaving before the end of the game, he blamed himself for not communicating this to Martinez ahead of time."
For the CHB, it was manna from heaven: "Why does this stuff always happen with the Red Sox? Why can't it just be about the baseball? Even for one day. ... This act may not seem like much of a big deal to some people, but it's a violation of a timeless baseball code. ... Francona looks weak. ... The manager is covering for his player, which makes for a poor start in some eyes."
Will this become an issue? I doubt it, since Francona, Pedro, Theo, et al. will simply stop talking about it. Of course, various writers may want to harp on it all year long. ... In the words of one Sock, "Nobody said anything about it [Martinez's departure] that I know of. ... I don't think it's a big issue, but I'm sure it will turn into one."
More 9/11 Public Hearings. The 9/11 Commission will be holding additional public hearings next week and will be asking questions of Attorney General John Ashcroft and former FBI director Louis Freeh. Regarding Ashcroft, maybe they can ask him about these decisions:
Newsweek, March 21, 2004: "[I]n the months before 9/11, the US Justice Department curtailed a highly classified program called 'Catcher's Mitt' to monitor Al Qaeda suspects in the United States ... During the Bush administration's first few months in office, [Ashcroft] downgraded terrorism as a priority, choosing to place more emphasis on drug trafficking and gun violence ..."
Washington Post, March 22, 2004: "In the early days after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the Bush White House cut by nearly two-thirds an emergency request for counterterrorism funds by the FBI, an internal administration budget document shows. The document, dated Oct. 12, 2001, shows that the FBI requested $1.5 billion in additional funds to enhance its counterterrorism efforts with the creation of 2,024 positions. But the White House Office of Management and Budget cut that request to $531 million. ... Ashcroft, working within the White House limits, cut the FBI's request for items such as computer networking and foreign language intercepts by half, cut a cyber-security request by three quarters and eliminated entirely a request for 'collaborative capabilities.'"
Newsweek, March 21, 2004: "[I]n the months before 9/11, the US Justice Department curtailed a highly classified program called 'Catcher's Mitt' to monitor Al Qaeda suspects in the United States ... During the Bush administration's first few months in office, [Ashcroft] downgraded terrorism as a priority, choosing to place more emphasis on drug trafficking and gun violence ..."
Washington Post, March 22, 2004: "In the early days after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the Bush White House cut by nearly two-thirds an emergency request for counterterrorism funds by the FBI, an internal administration budget document shows. The document, dated Oct. 12, 2001, shows that the FBI requested $1.5 billion in additional funds to enhance its counterterrorism efforts with the creation of 2,024 positions. But the White House Office of Management and Budget cut that request to $531 million. ... Ashcroft, working within the White House limits, cut the FBI's request for items such as computer networking and foreign language intercepts by half, cut a cyber-security request by three quarters and eliminated entirely a request for 'collaborative capabilities.'"
I Love Extra Innings. Curt Schilling/Eric DuBose on NESN at 3:05 pm. Schilling says he began looking at Orioles video in mid-December. He should be well-prepared.
Mind-Bogglingly Off The Mark. TPM: "The people who planned and advocated for this war hadn't the slightest idea what they were getting into. All the plans, all the assumptions, all the notions of what would flow from this came from that basic inability to grasp the reality of what they were entering into. ... It was an intelligence failure even more difficult to grasp than the fiasco over WMD -- and in this case it stemmed entirely from administration political appointees in the face of unanimous contrary advice from everywhere else in government. They've never copped to that misunderstanding, even to themselves. That team can't save the situation."
And: "Gloom ... has been building over Iraq. Increasingly, the Wise Heads are forecasting disaster. ... There seems to be no real 'if', just when, and how badly it will hurt US interests." ... Also: It's Condi Rice Week in DC. ... "We Told You So."
And: "Gloom ... has been building over Iraq. Increasingly, the Wise Heads are forecasting disaster. ... There seems to be no real 'if', just when, and how badly it will hurt US interests." ... Also: It's Condi Rice Week in DC. ... "We Told You So."
Red Sox Haven Roundtable Discussion. Nine bloggers (including me) answer some questions. Part 1 is here.
April 5, 2004
Two Interviews. An excellent Q&A with Glenn Stout, co-author of Red Sox Century. ... Alex at Bronx Banter has a chat with Bill James. ... He also calls Johnny Damon "a guy who is going above and beyond to cultivate an image as the anti-Yankee; it's good to see that the spirit of Bill Lee is still alive and well in Boston."
Predictions, Part 7.
Diamond Mind. Projected standings, based on the average of 100 simulated seasons run on March 17 (so Nomar, Kim and Nixon were presumably included). I've posted only the AL East (RF & RA: avg. runs for and against; #DIV & #WC: number of division titles and wild cards won (fractions given for ties)):
I'd like to see the best and worst seasons for each team. Which reminds me of a story in one Bill James's early Abstracts, in which he ran simulations of 1,000 seasons for Joe DiMaggio and Willie Mays and (as I recall) found that DiMaggio hit anywhere between .240 and .360, based purely on random chance. I'll have to dig that article out.
Sports Illustrated. Boston is ranked 3rd in MLB behind the Cubs and Yankees.
Diamond Mind. Projected standings, based on the average of 100 simulated seasons run on March 17 (so Nomar, Kim and Nixon were presumably included). I've posted only the AL East (RF & RA: avg. runs for and against; #DIV & #WC: number of division titles and wild cards won (fractions given for ties)):
AL East W L Pct GB RF RA #DIV #WCTom Tippett reports that both the Red Sox and Yankees "reached the postseason in over 90% of our simulated seasons ... Even so, because the other two division races are much closer, only three AL teams were completely shut out of the postseason in our 100 simulations. ... In our simulations, almost 40% of the races were decided by two games or less, with seven ties for first place. ... For the second year in a row, 13 of 16 National League teams qualified for postseason play at least once."
Boston 102 60 .630 - 890 680 54.5 42.0
New York 101 61 .623 1 899 703 45.5 46.5
Toronto 79 83 .488 23 819 845 1.0
Baltimore 75 87 .463 27 829 872
Tampa Bay 64 98 .395 38 706 874
I'd like to see the best and worst seasons for each team. Which reminds me of a story in one Bill James's early Abstracts, in which he ran simulations of 1,000 seasons for Joe DiMaggio and Willie Mays and (as I recall) found that DiMaggio hit anywhere between .240 and .360, based purely on random chance. I'll have to dig that article out.
Sports Illustrated. Boston is ranked 3rd in MLB behind the Cubs and Yankees.
ALE ALC ALW NLE NLC NLWThe Hardball Times. Predictions from 10 writers, including divisional standings, major awards and what happens in October.
MFY Min Oak Phi Cub Arz
Bos CWS Ana Fla Hou SFG
Tor KCR Sea Atl StL SDP
Bal Cle Tex Mtl Cin LAD
TBD Det NYM Mil Col
Pit
ALDS: Red Sox over Oakland, Yankees over Twins
NLDS: Cubs over Arizona, Astros over Phillies
ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox
NLCS: Cubs over Astros
World Series: Cubs over Yankees
AL East 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5thThe Baseball Crank. Yankees win the East; Red Sox take the wild card. Schilling wins the Cy Young. Boston loses to the A's in the ALDS. World Series: Yankees over Cubs.
Alex Belth BOS NYY TOR TAM BAL
Craig Burley BOS NYY TOR BAL TAM
Joe Dimino NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Robert Dudek NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Aaron Gleeman NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Ben Jacobs BOS NYY TOR BAL TAM
Vinay Kumar NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Matthew Namee NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Studes NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Steve Treder NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
Consensus NYY BOS TOR BAL TAM
October AL Champs NL Champs WS Champs
Alex Belth Yankees Giants Yankees
Craig Burley Red Sox Astros Astros
Joe Dimino Yankees Astros Astros
Robert Dudek A's Cubs A's
Aaron Gleeman Red Sox Cubs Red Sox
Ben Jacobs Red Sox Astros Red Sox
Vinay Kumar Red Sox Astros Red Sox
Matthew Namee Red Sox Dodgers Red Sox
Studes Red Sox Cubs Cubs
Steve Treder Yankees Cubs Yankees
Consensus Red Sox Astros/Cubs Red Sox
Orioles 7, Red Sox 2. Hmmm. Not exactly what I had in mind. In the bottom of the second inning, Pedro Martinez had gone through the Baltimore lineup once and this was the result: The Orioles led 3-0, they had runners at 2nd and 3rd with nobody out and Bronson Arroyo was getting loose in the bullpen. I was as pissed as I was worried. ... But then Martinez settled down. He struck out the next two batters and escaped further damage. Over the next four frames, he allowed just 3 baserunners and only one of those reached second.
The biggest reason for the loss? 14 men on base. Here's where they were stranded:
Art Martone on Pedro's performance: "You look at the line in the box score, and it's pretty good. ... There was a time, not long ago, when a 6-7-3-2-1-5 was unworthy of Pedro Martinez. ... It was cause for alarm. A 6-7-3-2-1-5 meant he was injured, because if he was healthy he just didn't do that. ... What we're looking at these days, more likely than not, is the emergence of a new Pedro Martinez. ... What is emerging is a pitcher of less power, less dominance, whose pitching skills are such that he can still win -- or keep his team in -- most games."
Art mixes progressive stats, humor and the pulse of the Nation better than any other Red Sox writer. And although it's not easy to offer a reasoned perspective right after an event has occurred, but I think he's jumping the gun here. Pedro Martinez was insanely brilliant in 1999 and 2000. The odds are very good no one reading this sentence will see anything like it again. It is wildly unfair to compare the 2004 Pedro (or any pitcher) to those performances. No one can consistently put up 8-3-0-0-1-14 lines year after year after year. Look at some numbers Art cites:
1999-2000: 41-10, 1.90 over 58 starts
2002-2003: 34-8, 2.24 over 59 starts
They aren't the best stats to evaluate a pitcher with, but those are basically identical. And during the last two seasons, lots of media people (and fans) were claiming that Pedro's arm was dead or dying. (His ERA+ was better in 2003 than it was in either 2001 or 2002.) ... In this high-offense era, Pedro hasn't posted an ERA over 2.89 since 1996. Pedro's ERA compared to his league:
A small bit on Martinez contract status from Tony Massarotti: "According to clubhouse sources, the Sox approached Martinez this spring about the possibility of a contract that could be voided in the event he is injured, a proposal that was not received kindly by the Martinez camp. ... [T]he mere idea of such a tenuous offer may have set negotiations off to a very poor start." ... In Sunday's Newsday, Ken Davidoff wrote that the team's offer was "about two years at $25.5 million."
Terry Francona got to the ballpark quite early Sunday. "On the day he made his debut as Red Sox manager, Francona found himself managing even before he'd opened his eyes. 'When I woke up this morning, I was right in the middle of an inning,' he said. 'That usually doesn't happen until the season starts.' Was he winning or losing in his dream? He doesn't remember. All he knows, there was a lot going on."
Mike Timlin also had a shaky performance last night. In 2003, he walked only six batters unintentionally in 83.2 innings. He started the 7th with a strikeout, then walked Brian Roberts and Melvin Mora. Three consecutive hits brought three more Orioles home. ... Bill Mueller is 15-for-22 (.682) at Camden Yards. ... Steve Silva of BDD: "Following the Red Sox isn't a yearly thing. It's almost hour to hour. There's no offseason, no downtime."
Batters Out H R BB K PitOn a 43 degree night with a 24 mph wind, it was a decent outing. Pedro's velocity was down -- the same gun that had Fat Sidney at 94-96 had Martinez consistently at 88-89. According to me, Martinez didn't top 90 mph until his 29th pitch of the game (I don't think he topped 91 at all). The cold weather also made it next to impossible for him to throw his curveball. Naturally, some writers are stirring the worry pot (warning: the 2nd one is Shaughnessy); an actual Globe headline: "Damon won't panic over a rough start." ... My take? The Red Sox will lose at least 50 games this season. This was the first one.
1- 9 3 5 3 0 0 30
10-18 9 1 0 0 3 35
19-26 6 1 1 1 2 27
The biggest reason for the loss? 14 men on base. Here's where they were stranded:
1st: 1B(By the way, could Jon Miller and Joe Morgan have praised the Orioles any more than they did? You'd think Tejada was the second coming of Honus Wagner (or maybe just the Second Coming) and anyone who didn't pick Baltimore to clinch the division by August 1 was an total idiot. ... While discussing the off-season, Miller informed the national audience -- twice -- that Tito's Predecessor had "resigned." The first time, Morgan actually followed up with a fact (!) -- "he didn't get an extension" -- but then slipped back into the inanity for which he's so widely known -- "then I guess he decided it was time to go." ... Yeah, getting your ass dumped by the side of the road might cause a person to stop hanging around his former place of employment. Yeesh.)
3rd: 1B 2B
4th: 2B 3B
5th: 1B 2B
6th: 1B 2B
7th: 1B
8th: 1B 3B
9th: 1B 2B
Art Martone on Pedro's performance: "You look at the line in the box score, and it's pretty good. ... There was a time, not long ago, when a 6-7-3-2-1-5 was unworthy of Pedro Martinez. ... It was cause for alarm. A 6-7-3-2-1-5 meant he was injured, because if he was healthy he just didn't do that. ... What we're looking at these days, more likely than not, is the emergence of a new Pedro Martinez. ... What is emerging is a pitcher of less power, less dominance, whose pitching skills are such that he can still win -- or keep his team in -- most games."
Art mixes progressive stats, humor and the pulse of the Nation better than any other Red Sox writer. And although it's not easy to offer a reasoned perspective right after an event has occurred, but I think he's jumping the gun here. Pedro Martinez was insanely brilliant in 1999 and 2000. The odds are very good no one reading this sentence will see anything like it again. It is wildly unfair to compare the 2004 Pedro (or any pitcher) to those performances. No one can consistently put up 8-3-0-0-1-14 lines year after year after year. Look at some numbers Art cites:
1999-2000: 41-10, 1.90 over 58 starts
2002-2003: 34-8, 2.24 over 59 starts
They aren't the best stats to evaluate a pitcher with, but those are basically identical. And during the last two seasons, lots of media people (and fans) were claiming that Pedro's arm was dead or dying. (His ERA+ was better in 2003 than it was in either 2001 or 2002.) ... In this high-offense era, Pedro hasn't posted an ERA over 2.89 since 1996. Pedro's ERA compared to his league:
Pedro LeagueThat is unprecedented in baseball history. ... Martinez can no longer throw 97 all night long. And while I admit I miss his overpowering performances, where seasoned vets looked like clueless high schoolers, deep down I don't care. All I want is an ace-like performance and so far, Martinez has shown zero evidence that he is incapable of that.
1997 1.90 4.21
1998 2.89 4.61
1999 2.07 5.07
2000 1.74 4.97
2001 2.39 4.53
2002 2.26 4.42
2003 2.22 4.71
A small bit on Martinez contract status from Tony Massarotti: "According to clubhouse sources, the Sox approached Martinez this spring about the possibility of a contract that could be voided in the event he is injured, a proposal that was not received kindly by the Martinez camp. ... [T]he mere idea of such a tenuous offer may have set negotiations off to a very poor start." ... In Sunday's Newsday, Ken Davidoff wrote that the team's offer was "about two years at $25.5 million."
Terry Francona got to the ballpark quite early Sunday. "On the day he made his debut as Red Sox manager, Francona found himself managing even before he'd opened his eyes. 'When I woke up this morning, I was right in the middle of an inning,' he said. 'That usually doesn't happen until the season starts.' Was he winning or losing in his dream? He doesn't remember. All he knows, there was a lot going on."
Mike Timlin also had a shaky performance last night. In 2003, he walked only six batters unintentionally in 83.2 innings. He started the 7th with a strikeout, then walked Brian Roberts and Melvin Mora. Three consecutive hits brought three more Orioles home. ... Bill Mueller is 15-for-22 (.682) at Camden Yards. ... Steve Silva of BDD: "Following the Red Sox isn't a yearly thing. It's almost hour to hour. There's no offseason, no downtime."
Predictions, Part 6. The Globe's Dan Shaughnessy, Bob Ryan, Bob Hohler and Michael Holley offer their predictions:
Steve Bisheff, Orange County Register:
AL: Red Sox, Twins, Mariners, Yankees (wc); AL Pennant: Red Sox; MVP: Keith Foulke
NL: Phillies, Cubs, Giants, Astros (wc); NL Pennant: Cubs; MVP: Jim Thome; World Series: Cubs
From the Chicago Sun Times:
Shaughnessy Ryan Hohler HolleyLynn Henning, Detroit News: "The Red Sox are going to win it all this season. East Division title. American League pennant. World Series. ... Boston is the best team in baseball this season, much better than even the Yankees. Better lineup. Better pitching. ... The Yankees won't go easily. It'll be a bayonet fight through September. But this time it's the Red Sox."
AL East Boston Boston Boston Boston
AL Central Minnesota Kansas City Kansas City Cleveland
AL West Anaheim Anaheim Anaheim Anaheim
AL Wild Card Yankees Yankees Yankees Yankees
NL East Phillies Phillies Phillies Florida
NL Central Houston Cubs Houston Cubs
NL West Los Angeles Arizona San Francisco San Diego
NL Wild Card Cubs Houston Cubs Houston
AL Pennant Boston Boston Boston Anaheim
NL Pennant Cubs Cubs Cubs Houston
World Series Boston Boston Boston Angels
Game 7: 18 inn.
Steve Bisheff, Orange County Register:
AL: Red Sox, Twins, Mariners, Yankees (wc); AL Pennant: Red Sox; MVP: Keith Foulke
NL: Phillies, Cubs, Giants, Astros (wc); NL Pennant: Cubs; MVP: Jim Thome; World Series: Cubs
From the Chicago Sun Times:
AL East Wild Card Pennant NL Pennant World SeriesI'm assuming it's a typo, but if Jay Mariotti's picks actually come true -- the Red Sox win the pennant, but the Yankees win the World Series -- then I'll be convinced there is a curse.
Mike Kiley Red Sox Yankees Athletics Cubs Cubs
Doug Padilla Red Sox Yankees Red Sox Phillies Red Sox
Toni Ginnetti Yankees Red Sox Red Sox Cubs Red Sox
Chris De Luca Yankees Mariners Yankees Phillies Phillies
Jay Mariotti Yankees Red Sox Red Sox Astros Yankees
Rick Telander Yankees Red Sox Yankees Astros Yankees
April 4, 2004
2004 Red Sox Wins Contest. Clip and save for October 4! In case of a tie -- which looks quite possible -- the person closest to Pedro's ERA (either over or under, this isn't The Price Is Right) will win. If there is still a tie, we'll look at Manny's slugging percentage. Good luck!
Wins Pedro ERA Manny SLGAnd me:
GD Fox 103 2.12 .599
Damien Lane 103 2.28 .601
James Breitinger 103 2.79 .596
Rhavisi 102 2.07 .643
tist724 102 2.42 .595
Redsox1 101 2.24 .620
Steve Schillinger 101 2.46 .639
Joe Knasin 101 2.47 .601
The Sheriff 101 2.55 .650
Ken Mavrogeorge 101 2.97 .625
YankeeGrrl 101 3.10 .552
Diana Gauvin 100 2.35 .525
Marc Witkes 100 2.38 .480
Joe L 100 2.88 .575
Aaron Empsall 100 2.89 .648
Valmoose 99 2.19 .623
Brian Donovan 99 2.37 .575
Alexander Campbell 99 2.60 .582
Naomi 99 2.97 .578
Franco Baseggio 98 2.60 .590
Ben Mahnke 97 2.97 .574
Joe Gionet 97 3.02 .584
Jonathan Sandler 96 2.31 .624
Bill Desmarais 92 2.31 .642
Joy of Sox 102 2.50 .630
Opening Night. "And Pedro Martinez is prickly, peeved, petulant, pouting, and feeling persecuted." Gordon Edes says that could be an encouraging sign. ... The time is now. ... "It's hard to recall a season with bigger expectations." ... The Herald has its big preview section today.
Bobby Jones beat out Tim Hamulack for the final spot in the bullpen. ... Lowe and Varitek have no doubts about Pedro's arm or velocity. ... The Globe has a "Dog Fight" between two vendors from Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. ... The Red Sox will have a different Opening Day 2B for the 11th consecutive year. ... Boston is 50-52-1 all-time on Opening Day (29-35-1 on the road). Pedro Martinez has never lost a decision on Opening Day (3-0, 2.43 in 6 games).
Kevin Millar failed to run out a ground ball that he thought was foul and was thrown out at first while he stood a few feet from the batter's box. Francona spoke to him and it blew over quickly. Even Manny joked: "I hope you learned your lesson." More here. Does anyone else think that if Ramirez had done this, it would have been written up that Manny was still out to lunch and still can't play the game the right way? I mean, Ramirez did this once in freakin' 2002 and members of the media still won't shut up about it.
What Planet Do These Writers Live On? Dan Shaughnessy, New York Times: "New England has not yet recovered from the classic fall in the Bronx last October, and the nuclear winter of 2003-4 did nothing to diminish the angst of the Red Sox Nation." ... Peter Schmuck, Baltimore Sun: "The Boston Red Sox arrived in spring training this year with dysfunction written all over them. ... The Red Sox led the major leagues in offseason angst ..." ... I have found the exact opposite to be true. Fans are insanely ready and beyond excited about this season. Because we all know that It Is On.
What else? ... Andy Pettitte: "The Red Sox offer pretty much blew everybody else out of the water. But I just couldn't see going against the guys that I had won so much with over there and competing against them on a yearly basis, 19 to 25 times a year. And for the New York fans, too. That wasn't me." ... How did the off-season begin? Less than 12 hours since Josh Beckett tagged Jorge Posada, ending the World Series, "the phone in Brian Cashman's office rang. Texas Rangers general manager John Hart was calling, offering an upbeat message ... [Then Hart] shifted gears. 'Hey, listen, while I have you, we're putting A-Rod on the market,' Cashman recalls Hart saying. 'We're meeting Boston at four at the St. Regis. Will you meet with us at six?'"
Peter Gammons will be talking baseball and rock and roll and signing copies of "Hot Stove, Cool Music: Volume 1" at the Best Buy at Landmark Center (2 blocks from Fenway) on Friday, April 9 (the day of the home opener) from 11:00 am to 1:00 pm. All proceeds from the sale of the CD benefit the Jimmy Fund. Gammons's rendition of "Carol" is on the CD; other musicans include Kay Hanley, Pearl Jam, the Dropkick Murphys, American Hi-Fi and Trauser (with one Theo Epstein on bass). Visit Hot Stove Cool Music for details or email: info@fenwayrecordings.com
Bobby Jones beat out Tim Hamulack for the final spot in the bullpen. ... Lowe and Varitek have no doubts about Pedro's arm or velocity. ... The Globe has a "Dog Fight" between two vendors from Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. ... The Red Sox will have a different Opening Day 2B for the 11th consecutive year. ... Boston is 50-52-1 all-time on Opening Day (29-35-1 on the road). Pedro Martinez has never lost a decision on Opening Day (3-0, 2.43 in 6 games).
Kevin Millar failed to run out a ground ball that he thought was foul and was thrown out at first while he stood a few feet from the batter's box. Francona spoke to him and it blew over quickly. Even Manny joked: "I hope you learned your lesson." More here. Does anyone else think that if Ramirez had done this, it would have been written up that Manny was still out to lunch and still can't play the game the right way? I mean, Ramirez did this once in freakin' 2002 and members of the media still won't shut up about it.
What Planet Do These Writers Live On? Dan Shaughnessy, New York Times: "New England has not yet recovered from the classic fall in the Bronx last October, and the nuclear winter of 2003-4 did nothing to diminish the angst of the Red Sox Nation." ... Peter Schmuck, Baltimore Sun: "The Boston Red Sox arrived in spring training this year with dysfunction written all over them. ... The Red Sox led the major leagues in offseason angst ..." ... I have found the exact opposite to be true. Fans are insanely ready and beyond excited about this season. Because we all know that It Is On.
What else? ... Andy Pettitte: "The Red Sox offer pretty much blew everybody else out of the water. But I just couldn't see going against the guys that I had won so much with over there and competing against them on a yearly basis, 19 to 25 times a year. And for the New York fans, too. That wasn't me." ... How did the off-season begin? Less than 12 hours since Josh Beckett tagged Jorge Posada, ending the World Series, "the phone in Brian Cashman's office rang. Texas Rangers general manager John Hart was calling, offering an upbeat message ... [Then Hart] shifted gears. 'Hey, listen, while I have you, we're putting A-Rod on the market,' Cashman recalls Hart saying. 'We're meeting Boston at four at the St. Regis. Will you meet with us at six?'"
Peter Gammons will be talking baseball and rock and roll and signing copies of "Hot Stove, Cool Music: Volume 1" at the Best Buy at Landmark Center (2 blocks from Fenway) on Friday, April 9 (the day of the home opener) from 11:00 am to 1:00 pm. All proceeds from the sale of the CD benefit the Jimmy Fund. Gammons's rendition of "Carol" is on the CD; other musicans include Kay Hanley, Pearl Jam, the Dropkick Murphys, American Hi-Fi and Trauser (with one Theo Epstein on bass). Visit Hot Stove Cool Music for details or email: info@fenwayrecordings.com
Predictions, Part 5. ESPN's staff picks are here. The relevant parts:
AL East: Red Sox 8, Yankees 8, Blue Jays 1
AL Wild Card: Red Sox 8, Yankees 8, Angels 1
World Series: Red Sox 6, Yankees 4, Cubs 3, A's 2, Angels 2
[By the way, what's up with Caple's picks?]
Jayson Stark asks: Can we even comprehend what life might be like if the Red Sox ever won the World Series?" David Ortiz: "I just don't want to be in the city when it happens. I'd be too afraid. If we win the World Series on the road, I'm flying straight from the World Series to the Dominican." [What? And miss the parade?] "I'd just say, 'Send me the tape.'" ... Stark: "Clear your calendar for Halloween week, because ... the Boston Red Sox are going to win the World Series. Really. ... [T]his year, there is no fatal flaw. Go ahead. Try to find one. Good luck."
T.R. Sullivan, Fort Worth Star-Telegram: "[T]he Red Sox are still loaded. They really need to win the World Series this year. They will."
Peter Gammons, ESPN.com:
AL/NLDS: Yankees over Minnesota, Boston over Anaheim, Houston over Philadelphia, Cubs over Arizona.
AL/NLCS: Cubs over Houston in 7, Boston over Yankees in 7.
World Series: Cubs over Boston in 7.
However, in his predictions for ESPN Magazine, Gammons picks Kansas City over Minnesota, Oakland as the wild card and says the Yankees will miss the playoffs. What's up with that?
Garry Brown, Springfield Republican; Guy Curtright, Atlanta Journal-Constitution; and Gerry Fraley, Dallas Morning News all predict:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
And Brown says: ALCS: Boston over New York in 6; NLCS: Cubs over Philadelphia in 7. World Series: Boston over Cubs in 6.
Boston over Cubs in 6. Just like in 1918. I like it.
World Series AL East Wild CardTotal:
Jayson Stark Red Sox over Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Peter Gammons Cubs over Red Sox Yankees Red Sox
Rob Neyer A's over Phillies Yankees Red Sox
Buster Olney Cubs over Angels Yankees Red Sox
Tim Kurkjian Red Sox over Phillies Red Sox Yankees
Jerry Crasnick Red Sox over Phillies Red Sox Yankees
Jim Caple A's over Astros Blue Jays Angels
John Kruk Angels over Phillies Yankees Red Sox
Tony Gwynn Red Sox over Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Rob Dibble Angels over Cubs Yankees Red Sox
Scott Ridge Cubs over Red Sox Red Sox Yankees
Matt Szefc Yankees over Cubs Yankees Red Sox
Eric Karabell Yankees over Astros Yankees Red Sox
Bob Klapisch Yankees over Astros Yankees Red Sox
Phil Rogers Yankees over Cubs Red Sox Yankees
Alan Schwarz Red Sox over Astros Red Sox Yankees
John Sickels Red Sox over Cubs Red Sox Yankees
AL East: Red Sox 8, Yankees 8, Blue Jays 1
AL Wild Card: Red Sox 8, Yankees 8, Angels 1
World Series: Red Sox 6, Yankees 4, Cubs 3, A's 2, Angels 2
[By the way, what's up with Caple's picks?]
Jayson Stark asks: Can we even comprehend what life might be like if the Red Sox ever won the World Series?" David Ortiz: "I just don't want to be in the city when it happens. I'd be too afraid. If we win the World Series on the road, I'm flying straight from the World Series to the Dominican." [What? And miss the parade?] "I'd just say, 'Send me the tape.'" ... Stark: "Clear your calendar for Halloween week, because ... the Boston Red Sox are going to win the World Series. Really. ... [T]his year, there is no fatal flaw. Go ahead. Try to find one. Good luck."
T.R. Sullivan, Fort Worth Star-Telegram: "[T]he Red Sox are still loaded. They really need to win the World Series this year. They will."
Peter Gammons, ESPN.com:
AL/NLDS: Yankees over Minnesota, Boston over Anaheim, Houston over Philadelphia, Cubs over Arizona.
AL/NLCS: Cubs over Houston in 7, Boston over Yankees in 7.
World Series: Cubs over Boston in 7.
However, in his predictions for ESPN Magazine, Gammons picks Kansas City over Minnesota, Oakland as the wild card and says the Yankees will miss the playoffs. What's up with that?
Garry Brown, Springfield Republican; Guy Curtright, Atlanta Journal-Constitution; and Gerry Fraley, Dallas Morning News all predict:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
And Brown says: ALCS: Boston over New York in 6; NLCS: Cubs over Philadelphia in 7. World Series: Boston over Cubs in 6.
Boston over Cubs in 6. Just like in 1918. I like it.
April 3, 2004
Atlanta 5, Red Sox 0. Boston's spring ends with a 17-12 record.
Boston 000 000 00 - 0 9 0Losing pitcher Keith Foulke allowed two runs in .1 of an inning and finished the exhibition season having allowed 15 runs in 9 innings ... Tim Wakefield allowed one hit in three scoreless innings. ... Johnny Damon was 2-2. ... And now -- finally -- it's on to Baltimore.
Atlanta 000 200 21 - 5 10 0
Behind The Curtain. Eleanor Clift: "In exchange for allowing Condoleezza Rice to testify under oath, President Bush gets to bring along his vice president when he appears privately before the commission. A top Republican strategist dubbed the legal document striking the unusual deal 'the Wizard of Oz letter' because it strips away the myth that Bush is in charge. ... With the revelation of the tandem testimony, nobody with a straight face can deny Cheney is a co-president or worse, the puppeteer who pulls Bush's strings. Aside from being fodder for the late-night comics, the arrangement confirms Bush's inability to articulate anything without a script -- or a tutor by his side."
Flip: "President Bush, spending a long weekend on his Texas ranch, gave no ground, and several aides said he will not change his mind on letting Rice testify." AP, March 29, 2004. ... Flop: "Today I have informed the Commission [that] Condoleezza Rice, will provide public testimony." Statement to the Press, March 30, 2004. ... More than 100 Bush flip-flops from CAP and Compassiongate.
White House notes on how to deal with Richard Clarke's 9/11 testimony were accidentally left in a Starbucks by a Pentagon employee. Check 'em out here.
Flip: "President Bush, spending a long weekend on his Texas ranch, gave no ground, and several aides said he will not change his mind on letting Rice testify." AP, March 29, 2004. ... Flop: "Today I have informed the Commission [that] Condoleezza Rice, will provide public testimony." Statement to the Press, March 30, 2004. ... More than 100 Bush flip-flops from CAP and Compassiongate.
White House notes on how to deal with Richard Clarke's 9/11 testimony were accidentally left in a Starbucks by a Pentagon employee. Check 'em out here.
Isn't This A Kind Of Torture? "The Guardian has uncovered more than a dozen instances in which ill or injured soldiers were sent to war by a US military whose resources have been stretched near to breaking point by the simultaneous fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq. In its investigation, the Guardian learned of soldiers who were deployed with almost wilful disregard to their medical histories, and with the most cursory physical examinations. Soldiers went to war with chronic illnesses such as coronary disease, mental illness, arthritis, diabetes and the nervous condition, Tourette's syndrome, or after undergoing recent surgery." ... When will newspapers in this country report on these stories?
Did you know that as Richard Clarke was testifying before the 9/11 Commission, Bush's top lawyer placed a call to at least one (and probably two) of the Commission's five Republicans? White House counsel Alberto Gonzales called Fred Fielding and may have called James Thompson. Was Gonzalez giving the two men some talking points with which to attempt to discredit Clarke?
9/11 Commission member Jamie Gorelick on the Bush Gang's refusal to turn over thousands of Clinton's terrorism papers: "We can't afford to have documents that are relevant to our inquiry being withheld on a technicality. This is not litigation. This is finding facts to help the nation, and we should not treat this as if we're adversarial parties here." If this isn't litigation, why is the White House acting like a defendant?
"Take Your President to Work Day" -- The White House must be terrified of what Bush could say to the 9/11 Commission if they are insisting that Cheney be alongside him for the duration of the meeting. I'm no Clinton defender -- but can you imagine the jokes and non-stop coverage if he had refused to testify unless he had a handler or Al Gore sitting beside him? ... Seriously. Can you imagine it? Because I've been trying for hours and I can't.
Did you know that as Richard Clarke was testifying before the 9/11 Commission, Bush's top lawyer placed a call to at least one (and probably two) of the Commission's five Republicans? White House counsel Alberto Gonzales called Fred Fielding and may have called James Thompson. Was Gonzalez giving the two men some talking points with which to attempt to discredit Clarke?
9/11 Commission member Jamie Gorelick on the Bush Gang's refusal to turn over thousands of Clinton's terrorism papers: "We can't afford to have documents that are relevant to our inquiry being withheld on a technicality. This is not litigation. This is finding facts to help the nation, and we should not treat this as if we're adversarial parties here." If this isn't litigation, why is the White House acting like a defendant?
"Take Your President to Work Day" -- The White House must be terrified of what Bush could say to the 9/11 Commission if they are insisting that Cheney be alongside him for the duration of the meeting. I'm no Clinton defender -- but can you imagine the jokes and non-stop coverage if he had refused to testify unless he had a handler or Al Gore sitting beside him? ... Seriously. Can you imagine it? Because I've been trying for hours and I can't.
The Focus Is On Foulke. Last season, Keith Foulke led the AL with 43 saves; he also had a 9-1 record and a 2.08 ERA. This spring, in 8.2 innings, he has allowed 15 hits and has a 13.50 ERA. His fastball has lacked precision and velocity and that has made his changeup less effective. So what's wrong? Theo Epstein: "I don't know." ... Terry Francona: "He's been throwing a lot [on the side] also, trying to make sure he's ready to go, and that's going to have something to do with velocity and things like that." ... Mike Timlin: "Right now I think Keith's trying to do too much. He needs to relax. He's not relaxed when he's pitching. I'm not an expert, but that's how I see it."
Theo is in no rush to finalize the roster. ... Many Sox vets hope Varitek returns in 2005. ... Boston Globe blogger Eric Wilbur picks the Red Sox to win the East.
Spring Stats (Wakefield has one more start tonight):
Johnny Damon CF
Bill Mueller 3B
Manny Ramirez LF
David Ortiz DH
Kevin Millar 1B
Jason Varitek C
Gabe Kapler RF
Mark Bellhorn 2B
Pokey Reese SS
Theo is in no rush to finalize the roster. ... Many Sox vets hope Varitek returns in 2005. ... Boston Globe blogger Eric Wilbur picks the Red Sox to win the East.
Spring Stats (Wakefield has one more start tonight):
G IP H R ER BB K ERAProbable Sunday Lineup:
Schilling 5 25.2 16 6 6 3 25 2.10
Lowe 7 29 20 9 7 5 12 2.17
Wakefield 5 19.1 19 9 8 4 11 3.72
Arroyo 6 22 21 10 10 6 17 4.09
Pedro 5 16 20 14 12 6 17 6.75
Johnny Damon CF
Bill Mueller 3B
Manny Ramirez LF
David Ortiz DH
Kevin Millar 1B
Jason Varitek C
Gabe Kapler RF
Mark Bellhorn 2B
Pokey Reese SS
April 2, 2004
Red Sox 7, Atlanta 3.
Boston 320 011 000 - 7 11 1A nice first inning: Kapler (c) singled. Mueller doubled down the left field line. Ramirez (bbb) homered to left, Kapler, Mueller and Ramirez scored. Ortiz (sc) struck out swinging. Burks (bbsc) grounded out. Millar (bbbcs) flied out to center.
Atlanta 100 100 010 - 3 7 1
W: Derek Lowe (3-1) L: Mike Hampton (2-2)
A Reminder -- Enter The Contest. Back on February 11, I posted a contest: Correctly guess how many regular season games the 2004 Red Sox will win and I'll mail you three copies of my book on the 1918 Red Sox. For tie-breaking purposes, please also guess Pedro's ERA and Manny's slugging percentage. ... You have until Sunday noon to enter (or modify your already-submitted entry). ... I will post all the entries on Sunday afternoon. Send your name and predictions to: joyofsox@hotmail.com.
Why Can't Bush Answer Questions On His Own? House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on George Bush having Dick Cheney at his side when he meets with the 9/11 Commission: "[I]t speaks to the lack of confidence that the administration has in the president going forth alone, period. It's embarrassing to the president of the United States that they won't let him go in without holding the hand of the vice president of the United States. I think it reinforces the idea that the president cannot go it alone. The president should stand tall, walk in the room himself and answer the questions."
You Are Not Sufficiently Afraid. Here we go again: "Terrorists might try to bomb buses and rail lines in major US cities this summer, according to a government bulletin issued to law enforcement officials nationwide. The FBI and Homeland Security Department sent a bulletin Thursday night saying terrorists could attempt to conceal explosives in luggage and carry-on bags, such as duffel bags and backpacks."
Former Senator Gary Hart, who co-chaired the US Commission on National Security, says he met with Condolezza Rice on September 6, 2001 to talk about the imminent threat of terrorism: "[M]y brief message to her was, 'Get going on homeland security, you don't have all the time in the world.' ... Her response was 'I'll talk to the vice president about it.' And this tracks with Clarke's testimony and writing that even at this late date, nothing was being done inside the White House. ... She didn't seem to feel a terrible sense of urgency. ... I met with Rice not long after the president was in Crawford and being briefed by CIA officials on the possible use of aircraft against American targets. This was all happening in the weeks before 9/11." ... Some questions for Condi.
William Rivers Pitt notes that Richard Clarke "has joined a long and prestigious line of people who have come forward to bear witness against this White House": Tom Maertens, Roger Cressey, Donald Kerrick, Paul O'Neill, Joseph Wilson, Greg Thielmann, Karen Kwiatkowski and Rand Beers. Pitt (a Red Sox fan) also manages to get in a "cowboy up" at the end of the piece.
The Plaid Adder: Bush's trifecta jokes "reveals something that should be unthinkable: that what was a disaster for everyone else in America actually was a jackpot for the Bush administration. After 9/11, while the rest of us were grieving, the Bush administration began raking in the chips. ... Their immediate response to the September 11 attacks was not, 'What can we do for our suffering people?' but 'What can we get out of this?'"
Former Senator Gary Hart, who co-chaired the US Commission on National Security, says he met with Condolezza Rice on September 6, 2001 to talk about the imminent threat of terrorism: "[M]y brief message to her was, 'Get going on homeland security, you don't have all the time in the world.' ... Her response was 'I'll talk to the vice president about it.' And this tracks with Clarke's testimony and writing that even at this late date, nothing was being done inside the White House. ... She didn't seem to feel a terrible sense of urgency. ... I met with Rice not long after the president was in Crawford and being briefed by CIA officials on the possible use of aircraft against American targets. This was all happening in the weeks before 9/11." ... Some questions for Condi.
William Rivers Pitt notes that Richard Clarke "has joined a long and prestigious line of people who have come forward to bear witness against this White House": Tom Maertens, Roger Cressey, Donald Kerrick, Paul O'Neill, Joseph Wilson, Greg Thielmann, Karen Kwiatkowski and Rand Beers. Pitt (a Red Sox fan) also manages to get in a "cowboy up" at the end of the piece.
The Plaid Adder: Bush's trifecta jokes "reveals something that should be unthinkable: that what was a disaster for everyone else in America actually was a jackpot for the Bush administration. After 9/11, while the rest of us were grieving, the Bush administration began raking in the chips. ... Their immediate response to the September 11 attacks was not, 'What can we do for our suffering people?' but 'What can we get out of this?'"
Optimism. Johnny Damon: "This is still the best team out there. It's going to be tougher because of the injuries, but we've got pretty good players filling in." ... Curt Schilling: "I feel every bit as good about this team's chances of going all the way as the day I came here, if not better." ... Terry Francona: "I feel good about everything, I really do. Now it's time to play, regardless of who's hurt or whatever. Our job is to win. We have to find a way to be one run better. Nothing else matters."
Schilling said deferred to catcher Jason Varitek for his entire outing yesterday, letting him call every pitch. "I wanted to see how he worked with my stuff. He gave me a lot of confidence going into the year." Varitek: "It's about working together. It's not about me. It's a trusting building block but it's not up to me. He's the guy throwing the ball." Terry Francona: "That would be the first time I've ever heard Schill never have the last word, in my life. It may be a first and last." ... In five spring starts, Schilling was 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA.
Francona received encouraging reports on Byung-Hyun Kim, who threw off the mound for the first time since March 10, and Pedro Martinez. "Pedro was outstanding. And I heard BK was better. Right before the game, [Dave Wallace] told me, 'You want something to pick up your day? These guys were outstanding.' That was good." ... Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield will start the two exhibitions against Atlanta. ... Francona's one dress code rule? "They just need to not dress worse than me and they'll be fine."
Sarah at RallyCuff says calling David Ortiz "Ortizzle" is "obviously the brainchild of some person posessing a crippling amount of dorky whiteness." She believes the correct translation should be "Orteezy."
Two Red Sox preview sections today: the Providence Journal and the Boston Globe.
Schilling said deferred to catcher Jason Varitek for his entire outing yesterday, letting him call every pitch. "I wanted to see how he worked with my stuff. He gave me a lot of confidence going into the year." Varitek: "It's about working together. It's not about me. It's a trusting building block but it's not up to me. He's the guy throwing the ball." Terry Francona: "That would be the first time I've ever heard Schill never have the last word, in my life. It may be a first and last." ... In five spring starts, Schilling was 2-1 with a 1.91 ERA.
Francona received encouraging reports on Byung-Hyun Kim, who threw off the mound for the first time since March 10, and Pedro Martinez. "Pedro was outstanding. And I heard BK was better. Right before the game, [Dave Wallace] told me, 'You want something to pick up your day? These guys were outstanding.' That was good." ... Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield will start the two exhibitions against Atlanta. ... Francona's one dress code rule? "They just need to not dress worse than me and they'll be fine."
Sarah at RallyCuff says calling David Ortiz "Ortizzle" is "obviously the brainchild of some person posessing a crippling amount of dorky whiteness." She believes the correct translation should be "Orteezy."
Two Red Sox preview sections today: the Providence Journal and the Boston Globe.
April 1, 2004
The 25-Man Roster. With Nomar Garciaparra beginning the season on the disabled list (along with Trot Nixon and Byung-Hyun Kim), Cesar Crespo will likely make the club. He will join Ellis Burks, Brian Daubach, David McCarty and Doug Mirabelli on the bench. ... After being told he would not make the club, Terry Shumpert exercised an clause in his contract that allowed him to become a free agent.
Tim Hamulack, Bobby Jones and Ramiro Mendoza are fighting for the final two spots in the bullpen. Bob Hohler believes Mendoza will be the long man and Jones (8 games, 0.93 ERA, .156 opponents' batting average) has a slight edge over Hamulack (9 games, 1.74, .093). The rest of the pen: Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Mike Timlin and Scott Williamson.
The Sports Retort's excellent and lengthy 2004 preview:
Part One: A Look Back at the "Cowboy Up" Sox
Part Two: The 2004 Pitching Staff
Part Three: Player Notes (Pitchers)
Part Four: The 2004 Position Players
Part Five: Player Notes (Position Players)
Part Six: Outlook in 2004 and Beyond
American League East (LA Times)
1. New York: "With a very deep lineup, the Yankees should emerge with a seventh consecutive division title."
2. Boston: "Strengths: Schilling joins what may become a rotation for the ages with the hard-throwing Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, who has a team-high 38 wins over the last two seasons. Foulke ends the closer-by-committee disaster that last season yielded 36 saves among 10 pitchers. An offense that led the major leagues with 961 runs and a .289 batting average returns. ... Weaknesses: Seven players, including stars Martinez, Lowe and Nomar Garciaparra, are eligible for free agency after the season, creating a potential distraction. First-year Manager Terry Francona has a reputation for being too chummy with his players. ... Outlook: The Red Sox matched the Yankees pitcher for pitcher in a classic off-season duel between the archrivals. Boston is poised to end its run of six consecutive second-place finishes but could be susceptible early with Trot Nixon (back), Byung-Hyun Kim (shoulder) and Garciaparra (Achilles' tendon) starting the season on the disabled list."
Bronson Arroyo pitched in the tie with Pittsburgh (the Pirates ran out of pitchers) and will now be off until the home opener on April 9. Terry Francona has said he may get some bullpen action in Sunday's opener. ... The Globe notes that Pokey Reese (.194 average this spring) and Mark Bellhorn (.176) have started only six exhibition games together at the positions they will play during the first few weeks of the season. ... Probable matchups for the opening series in Baltimore:
Sunday, April 4: Pedro Martinez vs. Sidney Ponson
Tuesday, April 6: Curt Schilling vs. Eric DuBose
Wednesday, April 7: Derek Lowe vs. Kurt Ainsworth
Thursday, April 8: Tim Wakefield vs. Matt Riley
Tim Hamulack, Bobby Jones and Ramiro Mendoza are fighting for the final two spots in the bullpen. Bob Hohler believes Mendoza will be the long man and Jones (8 games, 0.93 ERA, .156 opponents' batting average) has a slight edge over Hamulack (9 games, 1.74, .093). The rest of the pen: Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Mike Timlin and Scott Williamson.
The Sports Retort's excellent and lengthy 2004 preview:
Part One: A Look Back at the "Cowboy Up" Sox
Part Two: The 2004 Pitching Staff
Part Three: Player Notes (Pitchers)
Part Four: The 2004 Position Players
Part Five: Player Notes (Position Players)
Part Six: Outlook in 2004 and Beyond
American League East (LA Times)
1. New York: "With a very deep lineup, the Yankees should emerge with a seventh consecutive division title."
2. Boston: "Strengths: Schilling joins what may become a rotation for the ages with the hard-throwing Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, who has a team-high 38 wins over the last two seasons. Foulke ends the closer-by-committee disaster that last season yielded 36 saves among 10 pitchers. An offense that led the major leagues with 961 runs and a .289 batting average returns. ... Weaknesses: Seven players, including stars Martinez, Lowe and Nomar Garciaparra, are eligible for free agency after the season, creating a potential distraction. First-year Manager Terry Francona has a reputation for being too chummy with his players. ... Outlook: The Red Sox matched the Yankees pitcher for pitcher in a classic off-season duel between the archrivals. Boston is poised to end its run of six consecutive second-place finishes but could be susceptible early with Trot Nixon (back), Byung-Hyun Kim (shoulder) and Garciaparra (Achilles' tendon) starting the season on the disabled list."
Bronson Arroyo pitched in the tie with Pittsburgh (the Pirates ran out of pitchers) and will now be off until the home opener on April 9. Terry Francona has said he may get some bullpen action in Sunday's opener. ... The Globe notes that Pokey Reese (.194 average this spring) and Mark Bellhorn (.176) have started only six exhibition games together at the positions they will play during the first few weeks of the season. ... Probable matchups for the opening series in Baltimore:
Sunday, April 4: Pedro Martinez vs. Sidney Ponson
Tuesday, April 6: Curt Schilling vs. Eric DuBose
Wednesday, April 7: Derek Lowe vs. Kurt Ainsworth
Thursday, April 8: Tim Wakefield vs. Matt Riley
Sibel Edmonds. I've written about her before. She tells the Independent: "I saw papers that show US knew al-Qa'ida would attack cities with aeroplanes." This is damning stuff.
Edmonds spent more than three hours in a closed session with the 9/11 Commission, giving them "details of specific investigation files, the specific dates, specific target information, specific managers in charge of the investigation. I gave them everything so that they could go back and follow up. This is not hearsay. These are things that are documented. These things can be established very easily. ... Most of what I told the commission - 90 per cent of it - related to the investigations that I was involved in or just from working in the department. Two hundred translators side by side, you get to see and hear a lot of other things as well. You become aware of other issues relating to other investigations. ... President Bush said they had no specific information about 11 September and that is accurate but only because he said 11 September."
Fox, March 28, Brit Hume talking to Democrats and the families of some American soldiers in Iraq who voiced their disgust with George W. Bush's making light of the "missing" weapons of mass destruction:
"Well, we have a society in which one of the greatest things you can do is a platform (ph) to see victim status, and one of the qualifications for that is that you have these exquisitely tender feelings about things and sensibilities which are easily offended. And in America today, if your sensibilities are offended by something that has happened, you get an enormous amount of credibility and are taken very seriously. My own view of this is, the president's there poking fun at himself over what goes down, I think, as one of his failures. And I thought it was a good-natured performance, and it made him look good only in the sense that it showed he could poke fun at himself. But he certainly doesn't disguise the record on weapons of mass destruction. And you have to feel like saying to people, "Just get over it."
Get over it. ... It's only 601 dead Americans. ... Your son was killed, burned, mutilated and hung from a bridge? Brit Hume has three words for you: "Get over it."
Edmonds spent more than three hours in a closed session with the 9/11 Commission, giving them "details of specific investigation files, the specific dates, specific target information, specific managers in charge of the investigation. I gave them everything so that they could go back and follow up. This is not hearsay. These are things that are documented. These things can be established very easily. ... Most of what I told the commission - 90 per cent of it - related to the investigations that I was involved in or just from working in the department. Two hundred translators side by side, you get to see and hear a lot of other things as well. You become aware of other issues relating to other investigations. ... President Bush said they had no specific information about 11 September and that is accurate but only because he said 11 September."
Fox, March 28, Brit Hume talking to Democrats and the families of some American soldiers in Iraq who voiced their disgust with George W. Bush's making light of the "missing" weapons of mass destruction:
"Well, we have a society in which one of the greatest things you can do is a platform (ph) to see victim status, and one of the qualifications for that is that you have these exquisitely tender feelings about things and sensibilities which are easily offended. And in America today, if your sensibilities are offended by something that has happened, you get an enormous amount of credibility and are taken very seriously. My own view of this is, the president's there poking fun at himself over what goes down, I think, as one of his failures. And I thought it was a good-natured performance, and it made him look good only in the sense that it showed he could poke fun at himself. But he certainly doesn't disguise the record on weapons of mass destruction. And you have to feel like saying to people, "Just get over it."
Get over it. ... It's only 601 dead Americans. ... Your son was killed, burned, mutilated and hung from a bridge? Brit Hume has three words for you: "Get over it."
Red Sox 4, Twins 3.
Boston 001 000 201 - 4 9 1Adam Hyzdu pounded J.C. Romero's full-count pitch over the right-field fence to win the game. Curt Schilling pitched four innings and allowed one run on three hits while walking one and striking out four. ... Johan Santana began the 3rd inning by allowing a single and three walks. A pass to David McCarty with the bases loaded scored Pokey Reese. Jacque Jones homered off Schilling in the fourth. The Twins led 3-1 when Carlos Febles's double to left field tied the game at 3-3. ... Boston has two final exhibitions in Atlanta tomorrow and Saturday.
Minnesota 000 111 000 - 3 6 0
Busted. WaPo: "On Sept. 11, 2001, national security adviser Condoleezza Rice was scheduled to outline a Bush administration policy that would address 'the threats and problems of today and the day after, not the world of yesterday' -- but the focus was largely on missile defense, not terrorism from Islamic radicals. The speech provides telling insight into the administration's thinking on the very day that the United States suffered the most devastating attack since the 1941 bombing of Pearl Harbor. The address was designed to promote missile defense as the cornerstone of a new national security strategy, and contained no mention of al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden or Islamic extremist groups, according to former U.S. officials who have seen the text." (emphasis by me)
Rice will go before the 9/11 Commission next Thursday, April 8, and testify under oath for about 2.5 hours.
AP: "The commission investigating the Sept. 11 attacks isn't getting a full picture of former President Clinton's terrorism policies because the Bush administration won't forward all of Clinton's records to the panel, a lawyer said." Only about one-quarter of nearly 11,000 pages have been turned over. ... Okay, they just finished getting hammered on Rice's testimony and now they are covering up more documents? Could these documents show that, as Richard Clarke has claimed, the Clinton administration was more focused on al-Qaeda than the Bush Gang? What the hell are they hiding?
If the Bush administration had actually done in 2001 what they claim to have done, Bush would have gone before the American people a long time ago and said something like:
"My administration did everything we could to stop those horrific attacks. But we are human and we are not perfect. We did not protect America -- as we were entrusted by you to do -- and for that, for the wound inflicted upon this country, I am deeply, deeply sorry. ... There can be no greater task before us that making sure something like this never happens again. Therefore, every single piece of paper relating to my administration's fight against terror -- as well as the papers of President Clinton -- will be made available to the 9/11 Commission.
"In addition, each and every member of my administration -- as well as every FBI, INS and CIA agent -- will be available to answer any questions the Commission has for as long as is necessary. And in the spirit of America's open democracy, we will conduct as many of these investigative hearings as possible in public. We will do this together. Now, we are grieving together. Soon, we will investigate together how this happened and we will move forward as a nation, stronger and more united, together."
Wouldn't that have been nice?
Rice will go before the 9/11 Commission next Thursday, April 8, and testify under oath for about 2.5 hours.
AP: "The commission investigating the Sept. 11 attacks isn't getting a full picture of former President Clinton's terrorism policies because the Bush administration won't forward all of Clinton's records to the panel, a lawyer said." Only about one-quarter of nearly 11,000 pages have been turned over. ... Okay, they just finished getting hammered on Rice's testimony and now they are covering up more documents? Could these documents show that, as Richard Clarke has claimed, the Clinton administration was more focused on al-Qaeda than the Bush Gang? What the hell are they hiding?
If the Bush administration had actually done in 2001 what they claim to have done, Bush would have gone before the American people a long time ago and said something like:
"My administration did everything we could to stop those horrific attacks. But we are human and we are not perfect. We did not protect America -- as we were entrusted by you to do -- and for that, for the wound inflicted upon this country, I am deeply, deeply sorry. ... There can be no greater task before us that making sure something like this never happens again. Therefore, every single piece of paper relating to my administration's fight against terror -- as well as the papers of President Clinton -- will be made available to the 9/11 Commission.
"In addition, each and every member of my administration -- as well as every FBI, INS and CIA agent -- will be available to answer any questions the Commission has for as long as is necessary. And in the spirit of America's open democracy, we will conduct as many of these investigative hearings as possible in public. We will do this together. Now, we are grieving together. Soon, we will investigate together how this happened and we will move forward as a nation, stronger and more united, together."
Wouldn't that have been nice?
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