Predictions, Part 7.

Diamond Mind. Projected standings, based on the average of 100 simulated seasons run on March 17 (so Nomar, Kim and Nixon were presumably included). I've posted only the AL East (RF & RA: avg. runs for and against; #DIV & #WC: number of division titles and wild cards won (fractions given for ties)):

AL East         W   L   Pct  GB   RF   RA  #DIV   #WC

Boston        102  60  .630   -  890  680  54.5  42.0

New York      101  61  .623   1  899  703  45.5  46.5

Toronto        79  83  .488  23  819  845         1.0

Baltimore      75  87  .463  27  829  872

Tampa Bay      64  98  .395  38  706  874

Tom Tippett reports that both the Red Sox and Yankees "reached the postseason in over 90% of our simulated seasons ... Even so, because the other two division races are much closer, only three AL teams were completely shut out of the postseason in our 100 simulations. ... In our simulations, almost 40% of the races were decided by two games or less, with seven ties for first place. ... For the second year in a row, 13 of 16 National League teams qualified for postseason play at least once."

I'd like to see the best and worst seasons for each team. Which reminds me of a story in one Bill James's early Abstracts, in which he ran simulations of 1,000 seasons for Joe DiMaggio and Willie Mays and (as I recall) found that DiMaggio hit anywhere between .240 and .360, based purely on random chance. I'll have to dig that article out.

Sports Illustrated. Boston is ranked 3rd in MLB behind the Cubs and Yankees.

ALE    ALC    ALW    NLE    NLC    NLW

MFY    Min    Oak    Phi    Cub    Arz

Bos    CWS    Ana    Fla    Hou    SFG

Tor    KCR    Sea    Atl    StL    SDP

Bal    Cle    Tex    Mtl    Cin    LAD

TBD    Det           NYM    Mil    Col

                            Pit

 

ALDS: Red Sox over Oakland, Yankees over Twins

NLDS: Cubs over Arizona, Astros over Phillies

ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox

NLCS: Cubs over Astros

World Series: Cubs over Yankees

The Hardball Times. Predictions from 10 writers, including divisional standings, major awards and what happens in October.

AL East          1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th

Alex Belth       BOS   NYY   TOR   TAM   BAL

Craig Burley     BOS   NYY   TOR   BAL   TAM

Joe Dimino       NYY   BOS   TOR   BAL   TAM

Robert Dudek     NYY   BOS   TOR   BAL   TAM

Aaron Gleeman    NYY   BOS   TOR   BAL   TAM

Ben Jacobs       BOS   NYY   TOR   BAL   TAM

Vinay Kumar      NYY   BOS   TOR   BAL   TAM

Matthew Namee    NYY   BOS   TOR   BAL   TAM

Studes           NYY   BOS   TOR   BAL   TAM

Steve Treder     NYY   BOS   TOR   BAL   TAM

 

Consensus        NYY   BOS   TOR   BAL   TAM

 

October          AL Champs   NL Champs    WS Champs

Alex Belth       Yankees     Giants       Yankees

Craig Burley     Red Sox     Astros       Astros

Joe Dimino       Yankees     Astros       Astros

Robert Dudek     A's         Cubs         A's

Aaron Gleeman    Red Sox     Cubs         Red Sox

Ben Jacobs       Red Sox     Astros       Red Sox

Vinay Kumar      Red Sox     Astros       Red Sox

Matthew Namee    Red Sox     Dodgers      Red Sox

Studes           Red Sox     Cubs         Cubs

Steve Treder     Yankees     Cubs         Yankees

 

Consensus        Red Sox     Astros/Cubs  Red Sox

The Baseball Crank. Yankees win the East; Red Sox take the wild card. Schilling wins the Cy Young. Boston loses to the A's in the ALDS. World Series: Yankees over Cubs.