Review: Maple Street Press Red Sox Annual

Seeing the annual pre-season baseball magazines on the newsstand is a sure sign of spring, but for a serious Red Sox fan, the information offered in them on her favourite team is usually no more than five pages and is presented from a somewhat dull, mainstream perspective.

Maple Street Press and editor Jim Walsh have solved that problem. Now in its fifth season, the MSP Red Sox Annual is an essential part of any Red Sox fan's pre-Opening Day reading list. Written in collaboration with the Sons of Sam Horn -- though mainstream writers like Ian Browne, Adam Kilgore, and Michael Silverman also contribute -- the 2010 annual features 128 pages of Red Sox information -- with no advertising of any kind.

[Note: I purchased the annual in 2006-09, but received this year's edition for free, thanks to Cecilia Tan.]

Walsh's goal is simple -- "provide diehard fans with a variety of insightful viewpoints from people that know the team best". The contributors have a progressive view of the game and its statistics -- something is perhaps best shown in Mark Brown's use of advanced metrics to make the argument that J.D. Drew has been "Earning His Keep":

The resentment towards Drew is hard to pinpoint, but much of it stems from his failure to conform with traditional but outdated statistical expectations for power-hitting corner outfielders. ... He's also been characterized by some as insufficiently aggressive, emotionally detached, and ambivalent towards winning.

But a closer look at Drew's numbers, taken on the whole and in proper context relative to his American league peers, suggests he has not only performed at an elite level, but that he's been worth every penny of that [5/70] contract.

Gordon Edes recently spotlighted Brown's article at ESPN here.

Other highlights (full TOC can be seen here): Art Martone examines how successful Theo Epstein's philosophies have been over the last seven seasons; Chuck Korb crunches the numbers behind the team's defensive overhaul; Steve Mastroyin says the offense should remain at an elite level; Alex Clapp and Dan Brooks analyze Jonathan Papelbon's mechanics and pitch selection through Pitch-f/x data; and Alex Speier and Brandon Magee offer 12 pages on the minor league system.

There are also full-colour pages on each of the expected starters (lineup and rotation), showing spray zones, hit zones, pitch zones, and some statistical splits. Thus, we learn that, in 2009, Dustin Pedroia batted .433 on pitches up and in, Mike Cameron hit .556 off curveballs from lefties, Victor Martinez, when hitting from the left side, had the highest line-drive % of anyone in the lineup, Jon Lester almost never threw a changeup to a left-handed hitter, and Clay Buchholz went to his curveball only 1% of the time when he was behind in the count (and 23% of the time when he was ahead).

[MSP also published annuals for the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Dodgers, Mariners, and Twins. They do other sports, too, but who cares!]

If you want to order a copy, go to the main SoSH page first and then click the MSP ad (the board gets bit of coin back as a sort of referral fee). At $12.99, the Annual costs only a little more than a hot dog and beer at Fenway. But it's far more satisfying.

SoSH On Westmoreland's Surgery

Some interesting (and personal) comments related to Ryan Westmoreland's brain surgery today. Start here.

Bits Of News

David Ortiz came into today's exhibition game at 1-for-19, but Flo eased some of the panic by going 2-for-2, with a dong and a walk, though Boston lost to the Orioles 8-4, as Tim Wakefield (3.2-9-5-0-1, 57) had a rough outing.

Tiz: "On April 2, who gives a fuck what you did in spring training?"

Mike Lowell made his spring training game debut by playing first base for the first time since four games in AAA 1998. ... Bill Hall was at shortstop, a position he has not played during the regular season since 2006. ... The plan for Daisuke Matsuzaka to throw 40 pitches of BP was scratched. Maybe on Wednesday. ... Happy 31st birthday to Yook. ... Jed Lowrie has felt fatigued since Thursday and has undergone a variety of tests.

Yankees Suck, Honey

Ryan Westmoreland To Undergo Brain Surgery On Tuesday

Jon Heyman tweets that one of the Red Sox's top prospects, 19-year-old outfielder Ryan Westmoreland

was diagnosed with a cavernous malformation in his brain and is having surgery

The Herald's John Tomase adds that

According to the team, Westmoreland departed camp on March 4. He was diagnosed the next day at Massachusetts General Hospital, had consultations with three leading experts in the field, and on Tuesday will have surgery performed by Dr. Robert Spetzler of the Barrow Neurological Institute in Phoenix.

According to the Toronto Brain Vascular Malformation Study Group, cavernous malformations are not a cancer, so they do not spread. Cavernous malformations are a cluster of abnormally dilated blood vessels that resemble raspberries, and they are typically less than three centimeters in size.

Symptoms often include headaches and sometimes seizures, with the most serious cases resulting in a hemorrhage. It's unclear what symptoms, if any, Westmoreland was experiencing.

Theo Epstein:

The entire Red Sox organization stands in support of Ryan as he courageously deals with this issue. Ryan is a remarkable kid and a talented player, and we understand that many will be concerned about his health. He is getting the best medical attention the world has to offer, and we will have more information soon. Until then - out of respect for Ryan's privacy and at the request of the Westmoreland family - we will not have any further comment.

A bit more info on cavernous brain malformations here and here.

That's some scary shit for a teenager to deal with. Best wishes for a successful recovery.

How Offensive Will The Red Sox Be?

The mainstream media's opinion is that the Red Sox will have trouble scoring runs this year.

I'm assuming that the idea of a weak lineup originated with the departure of Jason Bay and/or the front office's clear emphasis on pitching and fielding this past winter. Two recent examples from MLB.com: "Run Production A Question Mark" and "Hitting Coach Takes Offense to Concerns".

Perhaps the most ignorant example was Ron Borges's column in the Herald on January 29, wherein he stated that

According to Theo Epstein, the Red Sox will be competitive through the use of kung fu baseball, the art of winning without scoring. ... Sox' management has discovered that despite mistaken evidence to the contrary, scoring runs is no longer essential to winning games.

Borges also proudly displays his pop culture hipness by cracking that some of the new guys "gloves are more valuable than Michael Jackson's".

Yes, Bay's bat (2009 OPS: .921) has moved to Flushing -- and it seems like that is the only data point the media is bothering to look at. One big bat in the middle of the lineup gets downgraded and, suddenly ... woe are the Red Sox.

In all of MLB, the 2009 Red Sox were 2nd in on-base average, 2nd in slugging percentage, 2nd in total bases, 4th in home runs, 2nd in doubles (4 fewer than Toronto), 3rd in walks (only 4 from the top spot). Is it realistic to assume that the absence of Bay is enough to sabotage a lineup that scored the third-most runs in MLB last year (872, 11 fewer than the Angels and 43 fewer than the Yankees)?

Just before Truck Day, the Herald's Michael Silverman admitted the 2010 Red Sox will have "a deeper lineup" than they did in 2009. But he also stated (re the numbers I posted above): "It is hard to see those totals going in any direction other than downward in 2010". Why? ... Silverman says the Red Sox are lacking in "thunder".

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense. And Bay is all wtf, too:

I think it's ludicrous that everybody keeps talking about their offense. It's actually kind of baffling and almost funny to me that those guys over there have to keep answering offensive questions cause I think they'll be fine.

Now, I understand that home runs are rally killers. Bad! Yet they also unclog the bases. And that's good, right? ... It gets confusing.

Anyway, Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre likely will be less productive this year than the 2009 Bay/Mike Lowell duo, but Boston will also get an entire year of Victor Martinez and Marco Scutaro -- which should be a vast improvement over the bats [sic] Jason Varitek, Nick Green, and Alex Gonzalez. The other five guys in the lineup remain the same from 2009 -- and all of them should be able to (at least) match their 2009 numbers.

What I am going to do here is gather up a bunch of the different projections for 2010 for the starting nine. I'll list the player's 2009 stats, then the 2010 projections from Bill James, CHONE, Marcel (Tango Tiger), and ZIPS (Dan Szymborski). (There is more Sox CHONE at YFSF.) I'm also including commentary from Lyford (whose posts at the ProJo Your Turn board when I hung out there in the early 00s were always solid), with whom I agree pretty much across the board. P.S.: In reading this over, it now feels like this becomes a Lyford post at this point, but I'm leaving it -- he includes some fielding metrics in his assessments.

Kevin Youkilis

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  w/RC+
2009        .305  .413  .548  .961   153
Bill James  .289  .394  .492  .886   137
CHONE       .284  .384  .473  .857   133
Marcel      .294  .387  .511  .897   140
PECOTA (1B) .287  .384  .496  .880
ZIPS        .282  .384  .491       127 OPS+

Lyford: In 2009, Red Sox first basemen hit .293/.386/.482/.868, creating the fifth most runs in the AL with the fourth-best OPS. ... The Red Sox should expect to see performance at first base this year which is as good as, if not slightly better than, the performance at first base which it got last year. The backups last year weren't butchers, so the defense is comparable.
2010 1B projection: Minor Net Improvement

Dustin Pedroia

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  w/RC+
2009        .296  .371  .447  .819   118
Bill James  .307  .378  .465  .843   128
CHONE       .308  .379  .443  .822   125
Marcel      .308  .374  .465  .839   128
PECOTA      .312  .379  .481  .860
ZIPS        .306  .372  .451       114 OPS+

Lyford: Pedroia's entering his age 26 season. The things that we know about baseball players, how they age, when they peak, suggest that one of the next three years is likely to be his best. ...
2010 2B projection: Comparable

Marco Scutaro

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  w/RC+
2009 (Tor)  .282  .347  .381  .789   117
2009 BRS SS .235  .297  .358  .656 
Bill James  .264  .360  .367  .728    98
CHONE       .268  .348  .378  .727   101
Marcel      .266  .350  .379  .726    98
ZIPS (Tor)  .261  .334  .364

Lyford: [In 2009,] SS was a hole without a plug, a wound that just wouldn't heal. ... [E]ven if [Scutaro] regresses, he still looks to be a significant offensive upgrade ... UZR had Scutaro at about a run better than average last year, slightly worse than Green and Gonzalez, but at about eight runs better than average in 2008. FR had him at 11 runs better than average in 2009, significantly better than either Green or Gonzalez.
2010 SS projection: Big offensive improvement, comparable defense. Big net improvement

Adrian Beltre

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  w/RC+
2009 (Sea)  .265  .304  .379  .683    87
2009 BRS 3B .287  .347  .496  .843
Bill James  .269  .321  .439  .760   100
CHONE       .270  .320  .446  .766   104
Marcel      .265  .318  .430  .748    99
PECOTA      .275  .328  .451  .779
ZIPS (Sea)  .264  .320  .449

Lyford: [Beltre] has poor plate discipline and consequently doesn't work the count or draw walks. ... He hit .254/.307/.410/.717 in Safeco over the past five years, and .277/.326/.472/.798 on the road. An .800 OPS might be a reasonable expectation when playing half of his games in Fenway. ... Baseball Prospectus Fielding Runs has him 10 runs better than average at 3B last year. It had Mike Lowell at two runs worse than average. UZR had Beltre 14 runs better than average last year, Lowell at one run worse than average and Youkilis 1.5 runs worse than average. It seems reasonable to expect that the addition of Beltre saves them 10-12 runs next year.
2010 3B projection: Small offensive drop-off, offset by defensive improvement. Net Comparable

Jacoby Ellsbury

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  w/RC+
2009        .301  .355  .415  .770   114
Bill James  .302  .360  .420  .780   118
CHONE       .302  .360  .412  .772   117
Marcel      .295  .352  .419  .772   116
PECOTA      .294  .353  .429  .783
ZIPS        .290  .344  .398       94 OPS+

Lyford: [Bay] was probably the second-best overall offensive player that Boston had in 2009, and they didn't replace him with a comparable offensive performer. ... [But both Cameron and Ellsbury] are much better athletes, base-runners and defensive players than Bay. Some of what they gave up in power, they'll make up in other ways. And some, they won't. ... FR had Jason Bay at 2 runs below average last year, UZR had him at 13 runs below average. UZR had Ellsbury at 9 runs above average for the 58 games in left in 2008, and FR had him well above average in left also. ... The transition from Bay to Ellsbury probably costs the Red Sox 20 runs in left field. The big question is, how many runs does it save them? You could probably extrapolate the best and worst case numbers and make a case that you save as many on defense as you lose on offense, but I don't believe it. You're probably looking at a net 10-15 runs deficit, which works out to about a game or a game and a half. It's a downgrade, but not a catastrophic one.
2010 LF projection: Big offensive downgrade, significant but smaller defensive upgrade. Net downgrade

Mike Cameron

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  w/RC+
2009 (Mil)  .250  .342  .452  .795   113
2009 BRS LF .267  .378  .535  .913
Bill James  .237  .328  .428  .756   101
CHONE       .235  .318  .393  .711    92
Marcel      .241  .328  .435  .763   104
PECOTA      .255  .333  .443  .777
ZIPS (Mil)  .246  .333  .446

Lyford: Cameron is aging, but has, according to the various objective rankings, continued to be an excellent defensive center fielder. He hits for more power than Ellsbury but, like Adrian Beltre, does not have the on-base skills that the Red Sox would generally like to see. And that difference could be offset by the defensive difference. Last year, FR had Cameron as 15 runs better than Ellsbury (4 vs. -11). UZR had Cameron as 28! runs better (10 vs. -18). ... Instead of the 15-16 run decline that the projection systems see, we're more realistically looking at a 2-3 runs difference. Really, not much of an offensive decline at all.
2010 CF projection: Comparable offense, moderate defensive upgrade. Net upgrade

J.D. Drew

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  w/RC+
2009        .279  .392  .522  .914   137
Bill James  .269  .385  .474  .859   132
CHONE       .263  .372  .443  .815   121
Marcel      .269  .377  .472  .850   126
PECOTA      .257  .365  .442  .807
ZIPS        .264  .381  .459       119 OPS+

Lyford: I've got Drew at 75% of the RF at-bats, with Jeremy Hermida inheriting the other 25%. ... Drew remains an excellent all-around player, albeit one who tends to disappoint those who judge players on RBI, temper tantrums and thrown helmets and bats. ... [A decline] is not surprising, as Drew is headed into his age 34 season. But there's no particular reason to expect a cliff, and there's no reason not to expect another productive season from Drew.
2010 RF projection: Age related decline. Net small downgrade

Victor Martinez

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  w/RC+
2009        .303  .381  .480  .861   131
Bill James  .298  .377  .464  .841   128
CHONE       .294  .366  .450  .816   121
Marcel      .287  .361  .452  .813   117
PECOTA      .278  .350  .448  .798
ZIPS        .297  .369  .470       118 OPS+

Lyford: On the season, the Red Sox got a .239/.333/.417/.750 line from the catching position, fourth best OPS in the AL, vs. a league average of .253/.315/.406/.721. ... PECOTA and Marcel .. both agree that the Red Sox have improved offensively at the catcher position. As for defense, I haven't seen any reason to think that there will be much difference.
2010 Catcher Projection: Small Net Improvement

David Ortiz

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  w/RC+
2009        .238  .332  .462  .794   104
Bill James  .264  .369  .519  .888   137
CHONE       .258  .355  .479  .834   124
Marcel      .264  .363  .493  .856   126
PECOTA      .263  .365  .487  .853
ZIPS        .260  .366  .507       126 OPS+

Lyford: The Red Sox had two different David Ortizes last year. The first one hit .185/.284/.287/.570 with 1 HR in 178 at-bats through the end of May. The second hit .264/.356/.548/.904 with 27 HR in 363 at-bats from June 1 through the end of the year. The huge question right now is, which David Ortiz do they get in 2010? ... [C]ertainly, he's a hitter who is well past his expected prime. ... It's not inconceivable that we're looking at a "last days of Jim Ed Rice" scenario, where the skills just disappear and that's the end. ... I suspect that the projections are roughly correct, that he's got another productive year or two left.
2010 DH projection: Ortiz continues to decline, but recovers somewhat from disaster. Net small upgrade

A few other ZIPS projections

Lowell    .282   .335   .453
Varitek   .220   .323   .370
Lowrie    .247   .318   .372

ZIPS also had some % projections:

.375 OBP
Yook 62%, Drew 59%, FY 46% ... Ellsbury 8%, Varitek 3%
  
.500 SLG
Tiz 52%, Yook 42%, Drew/Martinez 21%
  
140 OPS+
Yook 22%, Ortiz 21%, Drew 13%
  
45 2B
FY 29%, Martinez/Yook 3%
  
30 HR
Tiz 39%, Yook 23%, Martinez 6%
  
30 SB
Ellsbury 98%, Pedroia 1%, everyone else 0%

Lyford also looked at the starters ("big improvement") and bullpen ("comparable") and found that the projections suggest that the Red Sox will score 35-45 fewer runs than they did last year, but allow as many as 50-70 fewer runs.

Red Sox 2010 - Projected Record

         RS   RA   Pyth WP   W    L
2009    872   736           93   69 (actual: 95-67)
Marcel  841   716   .573    93   69 
PECOTA  848   652   .618   100   62
Lyford  845   660   .611    99   63

Lyford: They look to me like a 97-100 win team, a team that's significantly upgraded its run prevention capabilities over the winter at the cost of a smaller offensive downgrade. Bottom Line: Boston wins 98, goes to the post-season again.

As I noted in the BBA Q&A, with far less information and deliberation, I saw the Red Sox finishing at 98-64. I looked at Lyford's conclusion last, so after saying I see things similarly, it's neat to discover that we came up with the same W-L record for 2010.

Everybody Loves A Contest #7

It's time for the Red Sox W-L Contest!

Correctly guess the team's 2010 regular season record and win an exciting prize that I cannot tell you about, because I have no idea what it will be, though I'll come up with something by October 4.

Entries must be emailed to me -- though you can also post your entry in comments if you feel like it. Tiebreakers (regular season only, obviously):

(1) How many runs will the Red Sox score?

(2) What will their run differential be? (In 2009, with 872 runs scored and 736 runs allowed, it was +136)

Tiebreakers will be the closest guess, either over or under. If there is still a tie after (1), we'll go to (2).

Deadline: Sunday, April 4 at Noon.

*And I'm repeating the grand [sic] prize! The winner is invited to watch a 2011 Red Sox game+ at Chez L-Sock. Game night will include dinner in our backyard, alcoholic beverages, copious canine attention, and overnight accommodations. Transportation to the Toronto area not included. [+: Monday-Thursday only]

DFW Papers Archived In Austin

David Foster Wallace's private papers will be archived at the Harry Ransom Center at the University of Texas, Austin.

The archive contains manuscript materials for Wallace's books, stories and essays; research materials; Wallace's college and graduate school writings; juvenilia, including poems, stories and letters; teaching materials and books.

Highlights include handwritten notes and drafts of his critically acclaimed "Infinite Jest" ... The Wallace materials are being processed and organized and will be available to researchers and the public in fall 2010.

The HRC has uploaded some pictures of the marked-up inside covers of books from Wallace's library, including two Don DeLillo novels; two pages from his dictionary (with the word witenagemot circled); a well-worn copy of Pam Cook's The Cinema Book (which seems to have been very important to the film aspects of IJ); and a bound copy of the corrections for the IJ paperback.

Wallace's agent, Bonnie Nadell, offered a few thoughts on the archive. On that page, there is a maddeningly small jpg of a hand-written IJ page. A slide show includes four additional hand-written pages. ... But wait! The first page is also uploaded at The New Yorker in amazing quality. It is the section that begins on page 157, the 1960 monologue of JOI's father.

Matt Bucher took some "crappy i-phone pics" of some of the stuff that is already exhibited. Very interesting stuff! The cover page of the IJ manuscript Wallace sent to Nadell, which has scribbling all over it, notations written in various coloured pens, features this typed instruction:

PRIVATE DOCUMENT
INTENDED ONLY FOR RETINAS OF PEOPLE TO WHOM IT'S EXPLICITLY SENT

Bucher also took a picture of a manuscript page of one of the book's best sections -- the interesting facts you can learn in Boston AA -- which has been heavily edited, words added and subtracted, even some entire lines not in the final book.Someone on wallace-l noted "the feeling of wonder is mixed for me with sadness at how a living human can so quickly become an archive".

It is odd, looking at the chicken-scratch writing on the inside of his paperbacks as though they were museum artifacts. But at the same time, I cannot begin to tell you how much I want to go to see this stuff.

One of my obsessions with Infinite Jest is the nuts and bolts of its creation: How was it constructed, both the individual sections and the overall order of the narrative? What was his timeline of writing the thing? What level of crazy work went into making the narrative sound so perfectly like the reader's own personal interior voice? In one of his letters to Michael Pietsch, his editor at Little, Brown, Wallace mentions having re-written a section "for about the 11th time" -- how did that evolve?

Wallace wrote his early drafts by hand. When, in the finished book, several pages are spent detailing the rapid thought-process in someone's mind, how in the hell can you get that down writing slowly by hand? I guess that's where the real work is, the re-writing, the building, all that stuff behind the curtain. Which leads me back to being in absolute awe that this glorious novel exists.

Nadell:

For each draft of a story or essay there are levels of edits marked in different colored ink, repeated word changes until he found the perfect word for each sentence, and notes to himself about how to sharpen a phrase until it met his exacting eye. Having represented David from the beginning of his writing career, I know there were people who felt David was too much of a "look ma no hands" kind of writer, fast and clever and undisciplined. Yet anyone reading through his notes to himself will see how scrupulous they are. ... [A]nyone looking through his drafts and even his books will see the levels of thinking that went into every sentence and every page.

Nomar: I Had A Recurring Dream Of Retiring In A Red Sox Uniform

Nomar Garciaparra:

I think last time I was in Boston when the Oakland A's came to town [last season] ... I was talking about always having a recurring dream to be able to retire in a Red Sox uniform. ... [And] today I get to retire and fulfill that dream ...

Garciaparra was actually first drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers, in the 5th round of the 1991 amateur draft, but he did not sign. The Red Sox picked him in the 1st round (12th overall pick) of the 1994 amateur draft. (Jason Varitek was picked two spots later, by the Mariners.)

Nomar made his debut with the Red Sox at Fenway Park on August 31, 1996, taking over for Jeff Frye at second base in the 7th inning of an 8-0 loss to Oakland; it was the only time in his career that he played 2B.

The next day, he started at shortstop, batted 7th, and went 3-for-5, with a home run off John Wasdin. In those five trips to the plate, he saw a total of 11 pitches (the dong came on a first pitch swing)!

Garciaparra received a huge ovation before throwing out the first pitch before today's Rays-Red Sox game at City of Palms Park.

Theo Epstein, who traded Garciaparra to the Chicago Cubs on July 31, 2004 -- less than three months before the team snapped its 86-year World Series drought:

I grew up a Red Sox fan and even through I was already in baseball when he became a player, I knew what he meant to Boston and to the fans. When his agent contacted us about doing this, I thought it was great. He should go out as a Red Sox because he was such a great player.

Tim Wakefield:

This is how it's supposed to happen.

In nine seasons with the Red Sox, Garciaparra batted .323, the 4th best career average in team history, with a .923 OPS and a 133 OPS+. He is fifth on the Red Sox's all-time list in slugging percentage (.553) and 11th in total bases (2,194). He won AL batting titles in 1999 (.357) and 2000 (.372).

Also: B-Ref looks at "Nomar Through 2003".

Nomar Announces Retirement

Nomar Garciaparra will announce his retirement this morning in Fort Myers.

Before that, however, he will sign a one-day minor-league contract with the Red Sox, so he can retire with the team that first signed him, back in 1994.

(SG has the Nomar Returns video.)

CSNNE.com and NECN.com will provide live on-line coverage, beginning at 10:30.

Book Review: The Green Monster by Andrew Kent

Andrew Kent's second novel in the Johnny Denovo mystery series combines eco-terrorism, genetic engineering, anti-government types in rural New Hampshire, and the Monster Seats at Fenway Park.

The Green Monster begins innocently enough with what seems to be a simple case of adultery, blackmail, and some petty corporate vandalism. However, renowned Boston detective Denovo soon uncovers links to something much bigger and far more dangerous.

In a post on his website, Kent writes:

The Johnny Denovo Mysteries are based on emerging theories of how we think, how we reconcile internal realities with external stimuli, how we make decisions, how we blend rational and emotional thought, and how we express ideas, both intentionally and unintentionally.

As a former neuroscientist, Denovo is always on the lookout for tell-tale patterns in speech, movement, and behaviour. Kent has no problem working these ideas into his fast-paced, intricately-plotted narrative.

For anyone that likes mysteries, I can't imagine The Green Monster not being a satisfying book. I think it could also be turned into a terrific movie.

The one thing that bothered me, however, were the times when Denovo is busy brainstorming, separating signal from noise, trying to hit on connections between seemingly disparate elements of the plot -- or what might be elements of the plot. Kent's crisp writing style is perfect for taking us through the deductive process, but the quickness with which Denovo (who is working on a clear deadline) makes these connections was off-putting.

I realize this observation may reveal my ignorance with the genre more than anything else, but is it a mistake to include many of the false leads and dead ends that a detective would normally go through in such a case?

[Kent sent me a free copy of the book to review.]

Wakefield vs Marlins

Red Sox play at Florida today. Jacoby Ellsbury (DH) is the only regular in the starting lineup.

Yesterday, Josh Beckett threw three perfect innings and Jose Iglesias hit a three-run dong. After a flurry of late-inning runs, Boston came out on top 7-6.

Talk Of Beckett Extension

Josh Beckett, who turns 30 on May 15, can become a free agent at the end of this season -- and the Red Sox have had what the Globe called "amicable" talks with his agent about a possible contract extension.

Beckett will pitch this afternoon against the Cardinals, followed by Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Dustin Richardson, Ramon Ramirez, and Manny Delcarmen. Former Red Sox knuckleballer Charlie Zink (whose only MLB appearance to date was a doozy) will be one of the St. Louis pitchers.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, whose schedule has been delayed because of a minor back strain, threw 65 pitches in a bullpen session yesterday. John Farrell: "Right now it's more a matter of refining the timing of his delivery and establishing release points on each individual pitch ..." Dice is penciled in to throw live batting practice on Friday or Saturday and pitch in a game on March 18.

Trivia: Who is the only player (since 1901) to hit three triples in a season without any singles?

The Joy of Fox

[UPDATE: Links to pics and post.]

Laura and I went with a friend to Jungle Cat World last Thursday. After walking around by ourselves, we accompanied an employee as she dragged a sled of raw meat around the complex and fed everyone. Then we got to handle a few of the younger animals.

Laura should have links to our pics (as well as more info about the place) up in the next day or two. In the meantime, here's me with a fox.
The fox shares its home with a lynx.
We got to play with young tiger cub.

At one point during our initial walking around, two wolves (maybe 75 yards apart in separate enclosures) began to howl back and forth. Very cool!

We loved this particular wolf. Maybe this was one reason why ...

Lackey Makes Debut Today

Two split-squad games at 1 PM:

Twins at Red Sox
Cameron, CF
Hall, 3B
Drew, RF
Ortiz, DH
Hermida, LF
Exposito, C
Bates, 1B
Sanchez, SS
Velazquez, 2B
P: John Lackey (30-35 pitches), Michael Bowden, Manny Delcarmen, Brian Shouse, Joe Nelson, Junichi Tazawa

Red Sox at Rays
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Youkilis, 1B
Beltre, 3B
Reddick, RF
Anderson, DH
McDonald, LF
Lin, CF
Wagner, C
P: Felix Doubront, Adam Mills, Kyle Weiland, Fabio Castro

WEEI will broadcast the Twins game.

JoS2 (Maybe)

JoS1 was a huge success, despite the stupid outcome of the stupid game.

For several reasons, the only chance of JoS2 happening in 2010 is if it's held north of the border. Here's my idea: go to a night game at Skydome on Wednesday, August 11, and then hang out at our house the following day, watching the afternoon game on BuffyVision and grilling dinner. We could probably have everyone spend the night at Chez L-Sock, plus there is a possibility of the game tickets being half-price.

If anyone out there thinks he or she could swing this, let me know.

Play Ball!

Northeastern   - 000 000 0 -  0  2  1
Red Sox (ss)   - 031 632 x - 15 15  1
  
Boston College - 000 010 0 -  1  3  3
Red Sox (ss)   - 101 301 x -  6  7  0

Red Sox doubleheader! The first game is at 1 PM against Northeastern, with another split-squad game against Boston College at 6 PM.

Day Lineup
Ellsbury, LF
Hall, 3B
Martinez, C
Ortiz, DH
Lowrie, SS
Anderson, 1B
McDonald, RF
Lin, CF
Velazquez, 2B

Casey Kelly will start, followed by Manny Delcarmen, Adam Mills, Felix Doubront, Dustin Richardson, Ramon A. Ramirez, and Robert Manuel.

Evening Lineup

Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Youkilis, 3B
Beltre, 1B
Varitek, C
Hermida, LF
Hulett, DH
Reddick, RF
Kalish, CF

The pitchers will be Boof Bonser, Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa, Kyle Weiland, Kris Johnson, Fabio Castro, and Randor Bierd.

Since both games will be seven innings, each pitcher will get one inning.

Eri Yoshida Meets Tim Wakefield

Eighteen-year-old knuckleballer Eri Yoshida, the first woman drafted by a Japanese team, was in Fort Myers today to meet the man who inspired her to pitch.

Back in November 2008, Tim Wakefield said he hoped to see her pitch one day. Today, after Yoshida watched his side session, he returned the favour:

She spun a couple, but for the most part, it was very good. She was able to take the spin out of a lot of them and they had quite a lot of movement on them. ... I had seen film of her and I was pretty impressed at the film. But to see her in person and to actually see her throw, I was very impressed with how she threw and the knowledge she had on the knuckleball, because she told me she was self-taught. This is the first time she's actually ever had coaching throwing a knuckleball. I kind of know where she's at, because I was there when I first started throwing -- nobody knew what to do.

Yoshida:

I never thought I could ever feel this happy.

Yoshida spent the winter pitching for the Yuma Scorpions of the Arizona Winter League. In her second start, on February 11, she threw five shutout innings against Team Canada.

[Earlier JoS posts about Yoshida here, here and here.]

Tracer: Ron Luciano and Tommy John

On a trivia website, former MLB umpire Ron Luciano tells this story:

I was working the plate in the seventh inning of a close game. Tommy John was pitching for the White Sox and Don Buford was the Oriole batter. As John began winding up, the ball squirted out of his hand and dribbled a few feet behind the pitcher's mound. Tommy continued his follow-through because he didn't want to risk straining his arm by stopping abruptly. Naturally I couldn't resist the opportunity. I threw up my right arm. "Strike one." The fans went crazy. Buford stepped out of the batter's box and glared at me. "What the hell are you doing?" "It caught the inside corner." I said. Ed Herrmann, the White Sox catcher, agreed with me. "It was a good pitch, Don." Weaver was on me in an instant, screaming about my making a mockery of the game. I told him it was just a joke, he said I was just a joke, and I changed the call.

Luciano recalls the same incident in the August 19, 1974 issue of Sports Illustrated:

Tommy John was pitching for the White Sox against the Orioles and accidentally dropped the ball behind him during his motion. He completed his delivery, and as a joke I called "steee-rike" on the batter. The batter, Don Buford, was aghast. He looked at me as though I was crazy. And out on the mound John was falling all over himself with laughter. I changed the call to "no pitch," of course, but John couldn't stop laughing. He walked the next three batters, gave up a double and was taken out of the game. He laughed all the way to the showers.

I thought I would try to find this game.

John pitched for the White Sox from 1965-1971, Buford played for the Orioles from 1968-1972, and Herrmann was with the White Sox in 1967 and from 1969-1974. So we are looking for a game in 1969, 1970, or 1971.

It appears from the story that a giggling John walked Buford after the joke call by Luciano. Thanks to Baseball-Reference, we can see all 19 plate appearances Buford had against John in his career. He walked only once -- with one out in the fifth inning on July 24, 1969.

However, John retired the next two batters to end the inning, Hermann did not catch, and Luciano was not part of the umpiring crew. (It is worth noting that Buford doubled off John in the 7th inning. That was followed by a bunt, single, balk, and home run -- ending John's day. The inning is right and John gets pulled mid-inning, but nothing else matches, including Luciano actually being in the ballpark.)

So maybe Buford did not walk. Luciano did not specifically say that he did. Let's look at every game John pitched against the Orioles in 1969-1971 (even though the "fans going crazy" aside makes it sound like the game was in Baltimore):

1969
June 14: John lasts only one batter into the 3rd inning -- and he did not walk anyone. Luciano did not umpire this game.

July 24: Mentioned above.

1970
April 30: John walks five men in seven innings, but does not leave mid-inning. He is pinch-hit for by Herrmann, meaning Herrmann was not John's battery-mate. And Luciano was not an umpire.

May 9: John pitches six innings and loses. Buford did not play and Luciano did not umpire.

1971
May 31: John pitches a complete-game 1-0 shutout. Also, no Buford and no Luciano.

June 13: John pitches another complete game, losing 2-1. Herrmann does not play and Luciano is not part of the crew.

August 13: John pitches only three innings, but is not relieved mid-inning. There is no Buford, no Herrmann, and no Luciano.

And that is it. Seven games -- and the one constant is that Luciano was not umpiring.

I checked John's entire seven-year career with the White Sox for games against the Orioles in which he walked at least three batters. There were eight games -- and, again, Luciano was not a member of the umpiring crew in any of them.

Buford played against John in six games in his career. There are the four above, plus July 5, 1964 and July 16, 1968. And Luciano was not part of the umpiring crew in those games either.

It's a great story -- with plenty of specific details. But it did not happen.

Wednesday Lineups!

1 PM vs Northeastern:
Jacoby Ellsbury, LF
Bill Hall, 3B
Victor Martinez, C
David Ortiz, DH
Jed Lowrie, SS
Lars Anderson, 1B
Darnell McDonald, RF
Che-Hsuan Lin, CF
Gil Velazquez, 2B
Casey Kelly (P)
6 PM vs Boston College (NESN/MLBTV):
Marco Scutaro, SS
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
Kevin Youkilis, 3B
Adrian Beltre, 1B
Jason Varitek, C
Jeremy Hermida, LF
Tug Hulett, DH
Josh Reddick, RF
Ryan Kalish, CF
Boof Bonser (P)

Notes

Roughly six weeks ago, I told a friend and reader of this blog that I had roughly zero interest* in JoS, but I sure hoped my attitude changed when spring training began.

* A couple of days ago, Laura posted "Is [wmtc] falling apart?" and, in comments, I mused: "Should I write my 'it didn't bother me so much in january but now spring training has started and I am still meh about my own blog' post now?"

And my attitude has improved ... somewhat. Right now, I feel like there is a fog between me and the team.** I can see them, but I can't focus and concentrate and engage with them very well. I'm not sure why.

** Also, I can tell that I'm connecting digging for info on the team in the middle of December and blogging. If I was reading everything I could about the team, then I guess I'd probably be posting about it. Although I stayed informed through the winter, it was almost exclusively via SoSH and not actual media sites and I had little desire to blog about any of it.

After 2004, my intensity level re individual games dropped considerably. Losses annoyed me, but for mere minutes, not hours and days. I discovered the pleasure of relaxing and enjoying my team play. Every game was no longer fraught with urgency, because what if we lose and then miss the playoffs by one game, and then it's yet another fucking year with no championship and I'm getting older and are these shitheads ever gonna win it all? I did not plan for (or even expect) that change, but I really like it.

So: Is my brain planning another shift in perspective? I have absolutely no idea. Have I merely lost most of my interest in the minutiae of the off-season and spring training? I guess I'll find out soon enough.

The W-L contest is right around the corner -- and I am stumped for a prize. Any ideas?

There were several books that I should have reviewed last season. Since I did not want to write about them during the winter (when readership is low), I've waited until spring. So I hope to get those out of the way this month.

I'm still making my way through Infinite Jest, but the JoS group read pretty much fizzled right out of the gate. Alas. I have also been thinking a lot about an IJ-related writing project, despite the possibility (probability?) that I'm fairly unqualified to do it. Thinking about that might also be using up some of my attention that I would otherwise be directing towards Fort Myers.

The Lucky Swastika

Rabbit Maranville is not a Nazi!

Starting Pitchers Announced

This Week's Starting Pitchers

Wed 0303
Casey Kelly vs Northeastern, 1 PM
Boof Bonser vs Boston College, 6 PM
  
Thu 0304
Josh Beckett vs Twins, 7 PM
  
Fri 0305
Jon Lester vs Twins, 1 PM
(followed by Tim Wakefield)
  
Sat 0306
John Lackey vs Twins, 1 PM (split-squad)
Felix Doubront vs Rays, 1 PM (ss)
  
Sun 0307
Clay Buchholz vs Orioles, 1 PM

The starts by Boof and HH will be on MLB.TV.

Peter Abraham claims this "sets up either Josh Beckett (on one extra day or rest) or Jon Lester (on normal rest) to start on Opening Day against the Yankees on April 4 in Boston". ... Good call -- as if someone other than one of those guys will be pitching G1.

Mike Cameron left Sunday's workout early with tightness in his left groin. ... Mike Lowell has been working out at first base.

Playing Pepper - 10 Questions

Daniel Shoptaw at C70 (and Head BBA Guy) asked me and two other Red Sox bloggers 10 questions about 2010:

How was the off-season? What kind of grade would you give it?

What is the key to success for 2010?

What will be the team's strength?

What could be their Achilles' heel?

Who will be the team's MVP?

Will a rookie make a significant impact on the team in 2010, and if so, who?

Who will be the breakout player for the team?

Which player will drop off the most from 2009?

Who is the most likely player to be dangled as trade bait?

What will be the team's final record and divisional standing?

You can read our responses here. Feel free to opine.

Francona Warns Cameron

Mike Cameron chose his minor league number when he joined the Red Sox, and Terry Francona gave him a warning:

Tito told me if you wear No. 23, make sure you don't miss the first ball because [the crowd] will go "LUUUGO!"

The Del-Lords Are Back!

They have regrouped and are now on their way to Spain for their first tour in 20 years!

The Del-Lords -- whose 1988 album Based On A True Story should already be in your record collection -- played together last night at the Lakeside Lounge in Manhattan. According to someone who taped the gig, they took the stage during happy hour under the name The Elvis Club!



Here is a clip from their rehearsal two nights ago (the internet is amazing!!!):



Back in another life, I went to guitarist Scott Kempner's apartment in the West Village to interview him before the release of 1990's Lovers Who Wander. It was shortly before Xmas. I arrived with a six-pack of beer and I remember him beaming about his Yankees tree ornament. (Scott is the guitarist on the left side in the clips. The other guitarist/singer is Eric "Roscoe" Ambel.)

You can see the Del-Lords -- named for the director of The Three Stooges short films Del Lord (Canadian!) -- in action in 1990 with The Girl That I Ain't Got and I'm Gonna Be Around.

[How cool is Kempner? When a blog posted some Del-Lords demos in November 2008, he came by to say thanks for "giving a shit about the band" and noted that even he didn't have a copy of at least one of the tracks! Then he returned to clear up some chronology about the recordings!]

Kempner (aka Top Ten) is also an original member of The Dictators -- the legendary NYC punk band. He's wearing the red shirt at the start of this run-through The Stooges' Search and Destroy. And here are The Dictators playing what should be the city's theme song (and here). ... ARE YOU TALKIN' TO ME???

Proof that there are ultra-cool Yankee fans out there.

Dice Feeling No Pain

Daisuke Matsuzaka made 25 tosses from 60 feet and another 25 from 90 feet on Monday and said he felt no pain or discomfort.

Mike Lowell arrived in camp and talked with the media: "I can't imagine I'm not on the trading block ... [but] Nobody should feel sorry for me."

Asked what kind of shape he's in for the new season, David Ortiz said: "You've got to see me naked." Re Flo, Gordon Edes presents two sets of numbers (June 1 to end of 2009 season):

Player A: 23 HR, 83 RBI, .292 AVG, .400 OBP, .520 SLG
Player B: 27 HR, 81 RBI, .264 AVG, .356 OBP, .548 SLG

San Francisco, April 14, 1906

This nearly 14-minute film of San Francisco's Market Street as seen from the front window of a cable car was originally thought to be from 1905, but some detective work from David Kiehn and the Niles Essanay Silent Film Museum --

from New York trade papers announcing the film showing to the wet streets from recent heavy rainfall & shadows indicating time of year & actual weather and conditions on historical record, even when the cars were registered (he knows who owned them and when the plates were issued)

-- put the exact date at Saturday, April 14, 1906 -- only four days before the infamous earthquake. (The film rolls/flutters in a couple of spots but it clears up.)


There are several clips of the quake's destruction, including one that takes the same route as the one above, here.

Numbers

 2 - Jacoby Ellsbury (changed from 46)
11 - Clay Buchholz (changed from 61)
16 - Marco Scutaro
22 - Bill Hall
23 - Mike Cameron
28 - Dave Magadan (changed from 29)
29 - Adrian Beltre
30 - Boof Bonser
32 - Jeremy Hermida
40 - John Lackey
46 - Joe Nelson 
50 - Ron Johnson (1B coach)
55 - Brian Shouse
70 - Tug Hulett
  
97 - Kyle Weiland (highest # in camp)

Book Excerpt: "Evaluating Baseball's Managers" by Chris Jaffe

Chris Jaffe, a writer for The Hardball Times, has published Evaluating Baseball's Managers: A History and Analysis of Performance in the Major Leagues, 1876–2008 (McFarland), and he has given me permission to post some of the Red Sox-related sections.

Jaffe, from the analysis of Terry Francona:

"Gather up a handful of fans from all 30 franchises and ask them about their teams' managers. Rooters from ten teams will tell you their manager is baseball's biggest idiot. Another ten will explain that their skipper is merely a dullard. About five will admit through gritted teeth that their guy is not too terrible. The other five will shockingly have something nice to say. The crowd rarely gives managers much credit."

The excerpt Jaffe sent me includes entries on 14 Red Sox managers (he evaluates 89 managers in the book): Patsy Donovan, Frank Chance, Lee Fohl, Bucky Harris, Joe Cronin, Joe McCarthy, Steve O'Neill, Lou Boudreau, Dick Williams, Ralph Houk, John McNamara, Don Zimmer, Jimy Williams, and Terry Francona.

Jaffe explains here how he researched the in-game tendencies of managers from 80-100 years ago. You can find other excerpts from his book here. Instead of sharing one manager's entire entry, I'm going to post bits of a few.

Dick Williams

Dick Williams lived to break in fresh talent. ... Williams went with the younger player whenever possible. He was fearless about putting kids in the game and would stand by them if he thought they had the talent, even if they initially faltered when establishing themselves. With that level of trust emanating from their authoritative skipper, rookies rarely fizzled on Williams. He not only gave prospects a chance, but more impressively he did it in a way that ensured they consistently reached their potential.

When Williams arrived in Boston in 1967, he gave 22-year-old Reggie Smith the starting center field job. Smith had a rocky start, with his batting average below .200 (with few home runs or stolen bases) as late as June 24. As a rookie manager, Williams must have been under pressure to bench him for a veteran while the team hovered around .500. Williams never wavered. With that show of confidence, Smith warmed up, ending the campaign second in the Rookie of the Year voting, helping Boston win the pennant. ...

Also in 1967, Williams found room for another 22-year-old rookie, reliever Sparky Lyle. Before leaving Boston, Williams made Lyle the relief ace, a position Lyle thrived in for a decade. ...

Don Zimmer

Zimmer was historically inept at deciding who should bat in the top two slots in his batting order.

Worst at Putting OBP in Top 2 Slots
Don Zimmer         1.521
Danny Murtaugh     1.400
Johnny Oates       1.360
Dusty Baker        1.267
Phil Garner        1.216

Not only did he do the worst job ever, but no one else is particularly close to him. ... Zimmer also had problems elsewhere on his lineup card. Once in Boston and another time in Texas the bottom third of his batting order had a better OPS than the entire team. ... Is it really that hard to figure out who the worst hitters are and put them where they belong? It apparently was for Zimmer.

Ralph Houk

When Houk inserted a reliever, that pitcher was to finish the game. In fact, his relievers lasted longer per outing than anyone in baseball history. Using the splits available at Baseball-Reference.com, the following teams had the most innings per relief appearance of any squad since 1956:

Year    Team   IP/RA   Manager
1974    DET    2.73    Houk
1973    NYY    2.68    Houk
1982    BOS    2.51    Houk
1976    DET    2.51    Houk
1975    DET    2.45    Houk

There are three different franchises in the top finishers, but only one manager. Just think how difficult it must be to average seven or eight outs per appearance. There are always going to be times a reliever has no stuff and needs to be yanked immediately. Some days Houk would bring a new reliever into the game with only one inning left. Yet he still averaged almost three innings per appearance a few times. ...

An era bias exists, as all of the sixteen highest finishes, and 35 of the top 36, come from the 1973-82 AL, its first decade with the designated hitter. Yet even among that bunch Houk dominates, as the above list attests. He is the entire top five, and seven of the longest sixteen averages. ...

Due to Houk's tendency to leave relievers in games for prolonged stretches, he virtually never used them on back-to-back days. ... In nineteen years as a manager, Houk used pitchers on back-to-back days 307 times. In comparison, Nationals manager Manny Acta did it 226 times in 2007-08. In 1982, the Red Sox staff threw only 8.2 innings on zero days rest, the lowest total for any team since 1956.

John McNamara

McNamara's most famous managerial moment came in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series ... [but] Perhaps the most telling moment in that game was not leaving Buckner in, but the bullpen meltdown.

No manager has coaxed worse performances from his relievers than McNamara. Cumulative bullpen ERA, adjusted for park, serves as a good gauge for overall reliever quality. When that is plugged into the Tendencies Database, the following managers had the shoddiest bullpens in the Retrosheet years:

Worst Park Adjusted Bullpen ERA
John McNamara     1.357
Jim Leyland       1.307
Bruce Bochy       1.151
Al Dark           1.096
Tom Kelly         1.093

McNamara owns the dubious distinction of possessing the worst park-adjusted bullpen ERA with four different franchises: San Diego (1974), Cincinnati (1981), California (1983), and Boston (1987). He finished tenth or worse ten times.

Jimy Williams

There are two types of quality starting rotations: those that also eat plenty of innings, and those managed by Jimy Williams. In 2000, his Boston Red Sox bunch featured the best park-adjusted ERA of any starting rotation in the AL while also averaging fewer innings per start than any team in the league. It was the only starting staff to do that since 1956. Only one other league leader in park-adjusted ERA even came close: that was the 1999 Red Sox whom Williams, of course, also managed. ...

Every rotation Williams managed for at least half the season finished in the bottom half of the league in innings thrown per start. Only once did any of his teams rank higher than eleventh. Yet they were good rotations. They finished the top half of park-adjusted ERA every year but one, and in the top three a half-dozen times. ...

In the years when pitch counts came into vogue, Williams was one of the poster boys for how to handle a rotation. More important than pitch counts, his teams performed better as the year went on. ...

Williams could do this because he oversaw terrific bullpens. Three times his relievers claimed the best park-adjusted ERA. In 2000, they possessed both the greatest share of innings thrown and the best park-adjusted ERA. ...

Got the Most from the Bullpen
Jimy Williams        1.030
Frank Robinson       1.514
Chuck Tanner         1.647
Bill Rigney          1.663
Gene Mauch           1.679

Williams does not just lead this category; he blows everyone away. ...

Terry Francona

W/L Record: 755-703 (.518)

Managed:
Full Seasons: Philadelphia 1997-2000; Boston 2004-08
Majority in: (none)
Minority of: (none)

Birnbaum Database: -195 runs
Individual Hitters: -11 runs
Individual Pitchers: -193 runs
Pythagenpat Difference: +115 runs
Team Offense: -92 runs
Team Defense: -14 runs

Team Characteristics: Francona has no interest in the intentional walk. He relies on his starting position players, but is willing to make mid-game replacements. His teams steal infrequently but generally have a fine success rate when they try. Only five AL bullpens have ever averaged less than an inning per relief appearance: Francona managed two of them.

Cody - Great News

Update 2: And she's home!

Update!

Cody's surgery went quickly and easily - and she is doing fine!

We heard great news about Cody's cancer yesterday. She's having surgery today.

Keith Law On The Red Sox And Stats

ESPN's Keith Law was interviewed on the Dale & Holley show yesterday.

He talked about the Red Sox farm system (he ranked it #2 in MLB, with the Yankees at #25, by the way; FU MFY) and the edge it gives them in any upcoming bidding for Adrian Gonzalez, and Theo Epstein's increased attention to run prevention.

Law also talked about more advanced metrics, when (as you might expect) answering a question about you-know-who:

RBIs are useless. ... It's not a stat I've looked at since I stopped playing fantasy baseball eight years ago. And batting average is not useless, but it's totally incomplete ... a single and a home run are treated as if they're exactly equal. Well, they're not. ...

Do you really think that RBIs are useless, rather than just overvalued?

Totally useless. In terms of measuring the value of a player's performance, I find them absolutely useless because 1) it's determined by how many opportunities you get — the guys who hit in front of you in the lineup, how often did they get on base; and 2) there's no particular skill to driving runs in. There's no such thing as a hitter who is significantly better in RBI opportunities. ...

Some guys take advantage of those opportunities that are there for them, and some don't. Some guys have a knack for driving people in.

I disagree with that. I do not think that's true ...

Do you think that the new metrics in baseball are a tough sell to the person who grew up thinking that the sacrifice bunt is an essential part of baseball?

They scare people. They really do. They scare people in the industry. I've noticed that with a lot of other writers. I take criticism, I took criticism for the Cy Young vote back in November [he did not include Chris Carpenter on his ballot] ... I do think ultimately you see a lot of guys who are scared, who are threatened who, "I have understood baseball this way for 50 years, you can't tell me I'm wrong — I don't want to hear that I'm wrong, that everything I thought about baseball was wrong or misleading, that I had a bad understanding of this game." ...

After I finished reading this interview, I did something that I almost never do: I glanced a bit further down at the first few readers' comments. That is ALWAYS a mistake. The large number of people who seemingly boast of their closed-mindedness, who take excessive pride in their ignorance, is staggering. And, sadly, they procreate.

When it comes to "clutch hitters", if you look at who excels in various hitting categories -- with runners second and/or third or "close & late" situations, things like that -- you will notice that the same guys do not appear at the top of the list year after year. And there are always some odd names. You know who the top 10 clutch hitters from 1960 to 2004, the players who (as Tom Ruane says here) "were able to raise the level of their game when it mattered most (or at least when runners were on second or third)"?

                           NO RISP       W/RISP
Name               AB     AB   BPS     AB   BPS   DIFF
Bill Spiers      3430   2548  .607    882  .722   .115
Mike Sweeney     3760   2673  .764   1087  .867   .103
Pat Tabler       3948   2815  .626   1133  .725   .099
Jose Valentin    4882   3678  .666   1204  .765   .099
Wayne Garrett    3308   2557  .557    751  .643   .087
Sandy Alomar     4748   3831  .519    917  .592   .073
Tony Fernandez   7972   6100  .665   1872  .736   .071
Rennie Stennett  4554   3520  .612   1034  .682   .070
Joe Girardi      4150   3117  .596   1033  .666   .070
Rick Miller      3910   2991  .599    919  .668   .069

(BPS - batting average plus slugging percentage)

In a nutshell, coming through "in the clutch" is something that has not been proven to be an actual, sustainable talent.

Lackey, Matsuzaka Meet The Press

WEEI has some video of John Lackey's and Daisuke Matsuzaka's comments to the writers today.

Also: Lackey threw a bullpen session. And he answered the question: Will he miss the rally monkey?

NY Post Fitting Bot For Pinstripes; Dice Has Sore Back

Daniel Bard, February 15:

If you want to be the best reliever you can be, ultimately that probably ends up being the closer. ... That's my goal. I don't know if it'll happen here or somewhere else, two, three, five years down the road.

Maybe you can't understand the subtle implications in that quote, but someone at the New York Post sure can:

Jonathan Papelbon may be closing for the Yankees sooner than you think.

(Yes, my eyes are rolling.)

Bot Q&A from yesterday here:

I think that's the perception, that I'm going to go somewhere else, but it's all a perception. ... Of course I'd love to stay here for 15 years. Right now one year at a time is the way it's working, and I'm happy and everyone else is happy, so why not?

Daisuke Matsuzaka left the Red Sox's minor league complex yesterday with a sore mid-upper back. He told a group Japanese reporters about the injury.

Theo Epstein called it a "really mild strain" and did not think it would affect Matsuzaka's spring at all:

We're two months away from when we'll need his rotation spot anyway, so we'll just slow it down, let our doctors look at him, not make something we think is really small into something big.

Red Sox In Camp

Extra Bases reports there are about 80 Red Sox players on the field this morning. Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett are tossing and Daisuke Matsuzaka is expected in camp later today.

Victor Martinez can be a free agent at the end of this season and he says he wants to stay in Boston, but I think that desire comes from not wanting to move to yet another team as much as it does wanting to stay with the Sox. Naturally, the team is saying nothing about any possible talks.

Clay Buchholz gained about 13 pounds over the winter and Theo Epstein likes what he sees:

He's really taken it very seriously this winter. He looks to be in great shape and has really strengthened his core. ... He's at an advantaged stage as opposed to where most guys are at this point.

Epstein also said that Mike Lowell had the pin removed from his thumb recently and that will put him a few weeks behind schedule.

Daniel Bard is working on a changeup:

Probably threw 20 of them the whole year [2009]. There's so many situations where I would think, "OK, this kind of situation kind of calls for a changeup." If there's a guy on second base, guy on third, important run, I don't want to get beat on my third-best pitch. What I want to do this year is make it so I don't have that feeling, so I can say the situation calls for a changeup and have the confidence that I'm going to get an out on it.

Amalie Benjamin has a good feature on the value of J.D. Drew (she even mentions WAR!):

Just 10 players had an OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) of .900 or greater in 2008 and '09: Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Chase Utley - and Drew.

Over the three seasons since he signed with Boston, Drew has gotten on base at a .390 clip. That stands as fourth-best among outfielders in baseball in that span, behind only Manny Ramirez (.412), Holliday (.403), Magglio Ordonez (.397), and tied with Adam Dunn. ...

Drew has gotten the hit so many times that some in the organization privately wonder why David Ortiz has gotten all the praise.

There was the two-out grand slam off Fausto Carmona in Game 6 of the 2007 American League Championship Series, the ninth-inning tie-breaking homer off Francisco Rodriguez in Game 2 of the 2008 ALDS, the home run and game-winning RBI in the Sox' epic comeback in Game 5 of the 2008 ALCS, the homer in a loss in Game 3 of the 2009 ALDS. ...

Pre-Season Annuals - Predictions

I've seen three of the pre-season annuals on the newsstand and jotted down the predictions for the 2010 season:

Athlon

Yankees
Red Sox (wc)
Rays
Orioles
Blue Jays
  
AL Central & West: Twins, Angels
NL: Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies (wc)
ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox
NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals
WS: Phillies over Yankees
AL MVP Top 5:
 Slappy, Mauer, Longoria, Yook, Morales
AL CY Top 5:
 Sabathia, Hernandez, Verlander, Rivera, Peavy

Lindy's

Red Sox
Yankees (wc)
Rays
Orioles
Blue Jays
  
AL Central & West: Twins, Angels
NL: Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies, Dodgers (wc)
AL Pennant: Red Sox
NL Pennant: Phillies
AL MVP: Teixeira
AL CY: Hernandez

The Sporting News

Yankees
Red Sox (wc)
Rays
Orioles
Blue Jays
  
AL Central & West: Twins, Angels
NL: Phillies, Cardinals, Rockies, Cubs (wc)
WS: Yankees over Phillies
MVPs: Mauer / Pujols
CYs: Hernandez / Lincecum

Loading The Truck

PICS!

Start here -- and ignore the idiots who scoff at the idea of celebrating Truck Day.

Globe:

The truck arrived at Fenway Park this morning just after 6:30 a.m. and the packing began at around 7:00 a.m. with a crew of seven workers. ...

The truck will depart from Fenway around noon.

Driver Al Hartz will be making his 12th Fenway-to-Fort-Myers run.

Jere has pictures from some 1950s Truck Days.

Lester, Yook, Bot, MDC In Camp

The Truck leaves on Friday morning, but Kevin Youkilis, Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, and Manny Delcarmen are already in camp in Fort Myers.

If you haven't seen the clip of a young Yook in the movie Milk Money, click here. ... The team grabbed right-handed reliever Gaby Hernandez off waivers.

And: A witness to Abraham Lincoln's assassination appears on the 1956 TV show "I've Got A Secret" (gee, I wonder who sponsored that show?).

Workout Videos

Two video reports on off-season workouts: WEEI has Dustin Pedroia and NESN has Jason Varitek.

Rob Bradford, on FY:

Pedroia had noted how heavy his legs felt throughout much of last year, vowing to alter that sensation in '10. ... "I just felt slower last year," Pedroia says. "That's something I wanted to change. Now I feel a lot better."

Redsox.com's "Around The Horn" looks at the 2010 outfield.

Over at BR, look at how consistent the percentages of 2-, 3-, and 4-run victories have been over the last 110 years.

Non-Roster Invitees

The Red Sox have invited twenty players not on the team's 40-man roster to spring training:

Pitchers
Randor Bierd
Fernando Cabrera
Kris Johnson
Casey Kelly
Adam Mills
Edwin Moreno
Joe Nelson
Brian Shouse
Jorge Sosa
Kyle Weiland

Catchers
Luis Exposito
Gustavo Molina

Infielders
Lars Anderson
Yamaico Navarro
Angel Sanchez
Gil Velazquez

Outfielders
Zach Daeges
Ryan Kalish
Che-Hsuan Lin
Darnell McDonald

Not Much Guessing About Roster

The 25-man roster for 2010 is -- barring injury -- pretty much set.

The only big question marks are the final two spots in the bullpen. Daniel Barbarisi (ProJo) and Peter Abraham (Globe) take a look at the candidates.

And the Truck leaves a week from Friday.

Also: Shitty news at Chez L-sock.