February 23, 2004

Best Projected Rotations 2004. BP's Dayn Perry takes the VORP for each projected rotation member and uses the team totals to determine the rankings.
Rank    Team                    Total Rotation VORP

1. Red Sox 217.4
2. Cubs 191.9
3. Yankees 188.2
4. A's 151.8
5. Astros 148.9
6. Mariners 122.4
7. Phillies 120.2
8. Angels 118.2
9. Twins 114.0
10. Blue Jays 112.6
11. Diamondbacks 106.1
12. White Sox 102.6
13. Dodgers 98.7
14. Marlins 94.1
15. Cardinals 93.3
16. Padres 90.1
17. Royals 89.5
18. Giants 87.3
19. Expos 70.7
20. Orioles 70.0
21. Pirates 65.9
22. Braves 64.3
22. Mets 64.3
24. Indians 59.7
25. Rangers 57.7
26. Rockies 48.8
27. Brewers 43.3
28. Reds 42.3
29. Devil Rays 41.8
30. Tigers 37.3
Perry notes: "The staggering VORP projection of Boston's Pedro Martinez (70.0) is better than that of the entire rotation of 10 other teams. ... PECOTA projects only a 7.0 VORP for Jon Lieber, which sounds a bit low. He seems like a good bet to heartily outperform the projection, and the Yanks could wind up with a better corps than the Cubs. ... PECOTA says the second-best starter on the Angels isn't Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar or Ramon Ortiz; rather, it's John Lackey. ... [I]t may come as a surprise that PECOTA tabs [Toronto] as having the seventh-best rotation in the AL. It's possible the best three teams in baseball may all be in the AL East."

Michael Wolverton on Support-Neutral Stats: "The idea behind the pitcher's W/L record is flawed on its face. ... If the offense fails to put runs on the board, or if the bullpen melts down in the late innings, the starter won't get the win no matter how well he pitches. Conversely, if the offense is having a great night ... the starter doesn't have to do anything more than last five innings to get the W. ... [T]here's been a gradual (very gradual) movement among baseball fans over the past 20 years to pay less attention to W/L record and more to ERA in pitching evaluation. And that's a good thing, since ERA is a good statistic. ... [But] it's not without its limitations."

Who am I kidding? I'll never stop linking to discussions of the Yankees' 3B/SS debate. Will Carroll thinks moving Rodriguez to 3B "could cost [the Yankees] three wins" and in the 2004 AL East, "that's a lot." ... Icy Jeter Seems to Have Left A-Rod in the Cold : "A friend of Jeter said the shortstop never relents once he holds a grudge, cutting out anyone from his small inner circle he feels has betrayed him. 'What is amazing," the friend said, "is how easily he does it. He doesn't have vendettas. He doesn't have fights; I don't think I've even ever seen him raise his voice. He doesn't do confrontation. He just puts an ice wall up and you're done.' ... Rodriguez is voracious and wants to swallow New York whole. ... Now, at best, Jeter has been downgraded to co-prince of the city."

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