October 19, 2009

AL Cy Young

My choices for the BBA:

1. Zach Greinke, Royals
2.16 ERA - lowest in the AL since Pedro's 1.74 in 2000

203 ERA+ - 32nd best season of all-time

2.42 FiP (Fielding Independent Pitching) - lowest in AL

1.073 WHIP - lowest in AL

Per 9 IP: 2nd fewest hits, 5th fewest BB, 1st fewest HR, 3rd most K

33 starts - 1 fewer than Felix/CC; 2 fewer than Verlander

5th in IP - 0.2 fewer than CC

6 complete games; 3 shutouts
In his nine no-decisions, Greinke had a 2.35 ERA -- still good enough to top the American League. And it was a better ERA than every starting pitcher in MLB except for Chris Carpenter (2.24). Greinke's ERA in his losses was still better than the AL average (4.75).
          GS  ERA    IP     H   R  ER  BB    K   WHIP
In Wins 16 1.00 117.1 82 14 13 21 122 0.878
In Losses 8 4.62 50.2 56 32 26 13 59 1.362
In ND 9 2.35 61.1 57 18 16 17 61 1.207
The Royals scored an average of 3.78 runs in Greinke's starts. He had three runs of support or fewer in 19 of his 33 starts.

According to ESPN's Dave Campbell, if CC Sabathia had received the same run support as Greinke, he would have finished the year with a 10-11 record. Greinke's W-L with CC's backing? 24-3.
Top 6 ERA Leaders
Starts With X Runs (Earned & Unearned) Allowed

0 1 2 3 4 5+ 2R or Fewer

Greinke 8 10 5 3 4 3 23 of 33 70%
Hernandez 7 8 6 4 2 7 21 of 34 62%
Halladay 5 6 6 5 4 6 17 of 32 53%
Sabathia 5 9 3 5 3 9 17 of 34 50%
Lester 6 7 4 6 2 7 17 of 32 53%
Verlander 6 6 4 6 4 9 16 of 35 46%
Rany Jazayerli says that Greinke also pitched in front of the team with the worst defensive efficiency. At the end of August, he wrote:
It's not hyperbole to suggest that, with an even average defense behind him, Greinke's ERA could be in the 1's right now.
Greinke began the season by not allowing an earned run in his first 29.2 innings. After 10 starts, his ERA was only 0.84. It crept above 1.00 for the first time on May 31. That reminded me of Pedro in 2000, when after 12 starts, his ERA was 0.99, though it had been over 1.00 before that. (Jazayerli wrote about Zach/Pedro back in May.)

John Dewan's Total Runs metric has Grienke as the American League MVP. Drive Line Mechanics seems to agree.

Joe Posnanski loves Greinke.
Example
2. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays

3. Felix Hernandez, Mariners

13 comments:

Zenslinger said...

A no brainer.

But it's nice to know exactly WHY it's a no brainer.

SoSock said...

Fruitbat is getting ready to take a loss.
Couldn't happen to a more deserving marsupial.

Amy said...

I know that the Sox aren't in these games, but I sure would have loved a game thread for today's ALCS game---especially at the end!

(FWIW, I am quietly rooting for the Angels, despite my initial confusion.)

Ish said...

I'm loudly rooting for the Dodgers and um, now I'm loudly pissed off.

Benjamin said...

Fruit bats are mammals (chiroptera).

Aceves got the loss, and his nickname was apparently Patón (Large Feet). Maybe he's some sort of pachyderm.

Bosox Fan in Wichita said...

Great break down. If Zach doesn't get the Cy Young, we storm the castle.

Ish said...

Peter Abraham, who recently moved from The Journal News outside of New York to the Globe, going from being a beat writer for the Yankees to a beat writer for the Red Sox, wonders if Fruitbat threw a spitball in Game 3. That's the video. You be the judge.

I wish I saw the actual pitch.

Ish said...

Correction: That was Steve Silva from the Globe who wrote the Extra Bases blog pot. But it was Abraham who tweeted a link to it.

Whatever.

Ish said...

One of my Twitter friends is calling this Spitgate.

redsock said...

Hard to say where he is spitting on that clip. Plus you don't really spit on the ball when you are going to throw a spitball.

Amy said...

So how do you make a spitball? I always thought you spit on your hand and then rub it on the ball.

This whole conversation and the video are really turning my stomach!

redsock said...

SoSH thread.

Overwhelming consensus: Nothing is going on.

Ish said...

Yeah see, that's what I thought. It would never be that blatant to drop a huge loogy on the ball.

Anywho, you know that guy who imitates batting stances and different nuances with different players? He paid a visit to Dodger Stadium and did a few for Manny!

The video's pretty raw and you'll have to turn your volume up, but it's awesome. http://bit.ly/rcVfT