October 26, 2009

My AL MVP Ballot

Today is the deadline for submission of MVP ballots at the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. I had hoped to spend more time on this, but that didn't happen. So all I have is a list, with a few notes.

Have at it.
1. Joe Mauer, Twins
2. Ben Zobrist, Rays
3. Zack Greinke, Royals
4. Mark Teixeira, Yankees
5. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
6. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
7. Jason Kubel, Twins
8. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
9. Adam Lind, Blue Jays
10. Kendry Morales, Angels
After #1, you could shuffle the remaining spots any which way you want. I liked finding out that Zobrist and Teixeira had the exact same OPS (.948). If I looked at this for another five minutes, I might move Greinke and Cabrera down, Lind or Kubel up, and maybe bump Morales. There are good arguments that everyone "should" be higher than they are.

26 comments:

Tom said...

Shouldn't Greinke be higher? He should probably win the Cy Young and the MVP for the season he had.

redsock said...

On the other BBA ballots that have been posted, Greinke is either at #9 or #10 or not there at all.

Like I said, you can make solid cases for all of these guys being higher. Greinke #1? Sure. Even more so in a year without solid hitting candidates, though that is not the case in 2009.

Greinke's Wins Above Replacement 9.4 -- better than any other player in the American League.

(And as far as who gets left off, THT has Jason Bay 2nd in the AL in Runs Created.)

redsock said...

Correction: Greinke's WAR is the best in all of baseball!

(scroll down)

Patrick said...

Fucking Ben Zobrist.

Jeff Parker said...

I had Greinke 3rd on my ballot behind Mauer & Teixeira.

Mike Plugh said...

I know he's not your favorite player, but how is Derek Jeter not near the top of this list? He was 2nd in VORP among all AL position players this season. Mauer put up a ridiculous 91.0 and Jeter was next at 72.8. Your guy Zobrist here comes in a distant 3rd at 61.0, so it's not even close. If Baseball Prospectus, for some inexplicable reason, isn't your cup of tea...Hardball Times has Jeter 2nd in its AL MVP analysis as well.

Tell me it was an unintended omission.

9casey said...

I never understood voting for 2nd-10 , who cares, you don't get anything for finishing second, do ya?

redsock said...

Tell me it was an unintended omission.

It was not unintentional. However, all 10 guys on my list can stake a solid claim to being more valuable than CI.

Jeter's fielding improved a bit this year, but most of his value is at the plate. Both Drew and Bay had a better OPS+ -- not a defining stat, but they are not on my list either. And Drew would get points for being a good fielder, a very good baserunner and a consummate pro when moved all over the batting order.

Jeter is a high-average, high-OBP guy with no power (78% of his hits were singles). B-Ref has Jetes 9th in Adjusted Batting Runs and 10th in Adjusted Batting Wins. It is not insane to say he is a marginal top 10 candidate. At the same time, you could present a good case for Jeter being in the Top 5.

In Fangraph's WPA, Jeter is 29th in the AL -- and 6th on his own team. The AL Top 5: Ichiro, Bay, Zobrist, Damon, Gutierrez. (Mauer was 6th.)

Hardball Times has Jeter 2nd in its AL MVP analysis as well.

That listing is not who is most deserving of the award. It is used to determine who the writers will vote for.

redsock said...

There might a contract bonus for finishing in the Top 3 or Top 5.

FenFan said...

There might a contract bonus for finishing in the Top 3 or Top 5.

Reading that reminded me that, after the 2012 awards, players who have contractual incentives based on consideration (not even winning the award) for the major baseball awards, like the MVP and Cy Young, will be excluded from the ballot. That after Schilling's last contract has an incentive that included $1 million for even a single Cy Young vote.

Unfortunately, I don't think we are ever going to see a pitcher win the MVP award ever again. There is too much bias in favor of positional players winning the honor.

the truth said...

Leaving Derek Jeter off a top 10 MVP list is insane, unless, that person or writer has an axe to grind, or is just jealous of Jeter.

Redsock:

The letters MVP stand for Most Valuable Player. Zobrist, Greinke, and Lind are all fine players, but because their respective teams did not win a divisional title, how can they be considered most valuable?

Saying Jeter's fielding "has improved a bit" this year, really shows your bias. Derek Jeter had a gold glove year at short. To state otherwise, only will prove you haven't paid attention to his defense this year.

His team won its division and he contributed with:

107 Runs Scored
212 Hits
18 Homers
30 Stolen Bases
.406 On base percentage

And he played a stellar shorstop. Not putting him in a top 10 MVP vote is malpractice.

L-girl said...

"The Truth" might be biased as well. No? Calling yourself "The Truth" doesn't change that.

And dn't confuse bias with jealousy. No one here is jealous of Jeter, or jealous of the Yankees for being stuck with him at short. We've watched him for years. He's a very good singles hitter with no range. If you watched him with a less invested eye, you might understand why his peers voted him "most overrated"

There's no stat category for "heart" and fist-pumps.

redsock said...

I have a very strong suspicious I know who "the truth" is. (with only 1 profile view, i guess you're a blogger rookie)

My definition of MVP has nothing to do with where the team the player happened to be a part of finished.

Why penalize Greinke because he was in KC? Why give extra points to someone because they happened to be on a strong team?

Smart fans don't penalize or reward players for things they have no control over. (Though, if anything, Greinke ought to get a boost from staying so focused while his team was shit.)

My definition is more like this: If I was starting a team and could pick anyone for my roster, who would it be, based on that player's 2009 performance?

Saying Jeter's fielding "has improved a bit" this year, really shows your bias. ... Derek Jeter had a gold glove year at short. ... he played a stellar shorstop.

Make your case. Convince me.

andy said...

What the holy hell? You have to be the MVP on the league champion to be considered for MVP? That would change all of baseball history in respects to the MVP's and all other awards. Cy Young goes to pitcher with most wins on the team with the most post season wins? Hell they don't even make the decision all the time on total wins in a season but now they have to ignore all regular season performance. Thetruth makes a very radical statement here. Surely it it more likely that Jeter was left off the list because even though this is a world series year for the yankees they were not the only team and they stunk in the first part of the season. Mauer was incredible and so was Zobrist and Kendry and Grienke even though I think that the Cy Young is intended to be the MVP where P is pitcher. The MVP as it is now should always be for the rest of the team. I don't think Jeter was top 10 based on your own rationale kinda, wasn't Teixera better? Why would Jeter be on the list? One person per team right?
Or do all awards and considerations exclude all teams who did not play in the world series?

andy said...

Or just the yankees because your team won this year. And when the Sox are back on top will you be anywhere saying that all the MVP votes should go to our best player? Even if Jeter hit 79 home runs stole 193 bases and hit .507? You are a narrow minded idiot. I came on here a few threads back and advocated for Girardi being coach of the year. Why? Because her actually deserves consideration this year. You do not have to blindly follow the team as if they can do no wrong because you would need a very short memory. PEDRO!!!

L-girl said...

(with only 1 profile view, i guess you're a blogger rookie)

Heh. Truth also rhymes with his moniker's full name.

the truth said...

Your listing of Zobrist, Greinke and Lind might be more appropriate for "Player of the Year", instead of Most Valuable Player.

In my opinion, the MVP should be given out to a player on a team who has won its division or captured a playoff berth by wildcard.

The Rays, Royals and Blue Jays would have finished out of a playoff spot with or without the players you have on your MVP list. So what is their value?

As far as convincing you about Jeter's fielding this year, only Derek can do that; and something tells me from reading this blog,
he will never be able to do that. It's all fine because I don't believe Jeter reads blogs.

L-girl...

Sorry I upset you. I know you must long for the days of "Nomar's better".

I just wonder if you asked Theo Epstein if he would could have had a "singles hitter" like Jeter play shortstop for his team for 13 years, and still have him going strong in his 14th year--would he take him?

redsock said...

In my opinion, the MVP should be given out to a player on a team who has won its division or captured a playoff berth by wildcard.

That's contrary to the BBWAA guidelines, but whatever.

As far as convincing you about Jeter's fielding this year, only Derek can do that

You said Jeter "had a gold glove year at short" and played "a stellar shorstop".

And you can't offer even one scrap of evidence to back up what you claim?

Wow.

L-girl... Sorry I upset you.

Well, that's a dead giveaway. You might as well have signed your other name.

You've sent your last post unless you can offer some actual content. Good day.

FenFan said...

Shouldn't "the truth" be worried about a basketball game right now?

Smell that? It's troll.

9casey said...

Don't yankee fans have something better to worry about?

9casey said...

They add 3 very good and expensive players ,but the guy who has been there for the last 8 years, when they couldn't get over the hump, is now their MVP.....we all know Derek Jeter shits strawberry ice cream, but really c'mon yankees fans you shouldn't be worried if some canuck with an ad-free blog titled "The Joy of Sox" disses your boy , I am sure Dustin Pedroia was on all your top 10 lists last year.....

9casey said...

the truth said...


In my opinion, the MVP should be given out to a player on a team who has won its division or captured a playoff berth by wildcard.



Why don't you just say a yankee should win the MVP every year, shit lets the change the name to the most valuable yankee, or the award Derek Jeter should win every year , we will just have 3 votes , Tim McGarver ,Ron Darling, and all the idiots who sit in the bleachers in yankee stadium...Maybe the yankees should just travel the world and play exhibition games against the Washington Nationals 2 or 3 times a week, sellout stadiums every where, the Idea worked for bunch of ballers from harlem, why not bombers from the bronx.....

Mike Plugh said...

Thanks for the explanation. I'm not sure that OPS+ is sufficient on its own to determine MVP, as you kind of note in your reply to me. Neither is the sense that "both Drew and Bay were also good fielders" since neither of them plays a position that is considered particularly challenging defensively by most SABR assessments of defense.

Jeter, despite the relative lack of power, produces at an extraordinarily high level with his bat, at his position, the 2nd most difficult on the field according to Bill James' own analysis. That's what VORP reflects. If you take into consideration any kind of defensive metric, like UZR ratings for example, Jeter had a career season at short.

Those factors alone suggest that he should be in the upper part of any list for 2009 MVP. I believe, in addition to BP's VORP, that a numbers crunching of all AL players has Jeter 2nd to Joe Mauer in Win Shares as well. Just sayin'.

L-girl said...

L-girl...

Sorry I upset you.


Get over yourself.

I know you must long for the days of "Nomar's better".

Nope. Don't long for any days. I just watch the game as is.

Jeter is, as I said, a very good singles hitter, and always has been. He's put up very good, sometimes excellent, offensive numbers for a very long time - which is a huge thing to do in baseball. I admire him for that.

He's not a good fielding shortstop. Few players are truly "five tool", and he's not one of them. No contradiction there.

So sorry we won't be able to go around in circles about this for another 4 posts until you flip out and are banned.

L-girl said...

Why don't you just say a yankee should win the MVP every year, shit lets the change the name to the most valuable yankee, or the award Derek Jeter should win every year , we will just have 3 votes , Tim McGarver ,Ron Darling, and all the idiots who sit in the bleachers in yankee stadium

LOL

9C, when you're on, you're on.

L-girl said...

Don't yankee fans have something better to worry about?

No. The most important aspect of baseball is ensuring that everyone loves Derek Jeter.