ALDS 1: Astros 8, Red Sox 2

Red Sox - 010 100 000 - 2  8  0
Astros  - 200 212 10x - 8 12  0

Jose Altuve hit three solo home runs and Marwin Gonzalez and Brian McCann - the bottom two hitters in the Houston lineup - had big two-RBI hits as the Astros dominated the Red Sox on Thursday afternoon.

Chris Sale - who had a 4.09 ERA in his last 11 starts of the regular season (August and September) - lasted two batters into the sixth (5-9-7-1-6, 100). He allowed at least one hit in every inning and he tied a season-worst mark by allowing seven runs.

Since divisional play began in 1969, the winner of the first game of a best-of-five series has gone on to win the series 71% of the time. Boston will pin its hopes to lefty Drew Pomeranz at 2 PM tomorrow in what has to be considered "a must win".

Four pitches into the game, the Red Sox got some bad news. Eduardo Nunez, starting over Hanley Ramirez at DH and batting with one out in the top of the first inning, grounded the first pitch to third. He stumbled out of the batter's box, hobbled most of the way towards first base, then crumbled in the dirt. Nunez, with a re-injured right knee, had to be carried off the field. (How he managed to hit and run and slide in practices and be deemed ready to play, yet re-injure himself on his first step out of the box, is a bit of a mystery.)

The Red Sox were knocked further back on their heels when Sale gave up back-to-back home runs to Alex Bregman and Altuve in the bottom of the first. (Altuve's dong came on an 0-2 pitch.)

Boston got a run back in the top of the second. Mitch Moreland and Dustin Pedroia walked against Justin Verlander (6-6-2-2-3, 99) with one out. Rafael Devers struck out, but Sandy Leon singled into the shift towards right field. Pedroia was thrown out at third base and the umpires ruled that Moreland had not crossed the plate before the tag for the third out was made. The Red Sox challenged and the call was overturned. The run counted.

Boston tied the game at 2-2 in the fourth. Mookie Betts doubled into the left field corner and went to third on Moreland's opposite field single to left. Pedroia fouled to the catcher but Devers - who could not lay off Verlander's high fastballs - got his bat on something that was not out of the strike zone and flied to short right, scoring Betts.

That good feeling did not last long. With one out in the bottom of the fourth, Evan Gattis doubled off the left field wall. Josh Reddick flied to left-center and Jackie Bradley made a diving catch - according to left field umpire Mike Everitt. However, it looked (even while watching the play live) like Bradley had trapped the ball and when the Astros challenged the call, it was quickly overturned. Reddick was given a single and Gattis remained at second. Yuri Gurriel flied to left for the second out, but Gonzalez doubled to the gap in right-center, scoring both baserunners and giving Houston a 4-2 lead.

After Sale had struck out the first two batters in the fifth, Altuve belted a first-pitch home run to left-center. Sale gave up a double to Gattis and a walk to Reddick to open the sixth - and John Farrell brought in Joe Kelly. Gurriel singled to right-center, loading the bases with no one out. Kelly struck out Gonzalez (getting him to swing and miss at a change-up, ending a 10-pitch at-bat). McCann fell behind 1-2, but lined a single to right-center, scoring two runs. Altuve went deep for the third time leading off the seventh against Austin Maddox.

After the fourth inning, the Red Sox's offense was nowhere to be found. Ramirez singled with one out in the fifth, but Andrew Benintendi (as the potential tying run) grounded into a double play. Verlander retired the side in order in the sixth and Chris Devenski did the same in the seventh. Benintendi and Betts both singled off Will Harris with two outs in the eighth, but Francisco Liriano came in and retired Moreland on a grounder to second. Joe Musgrove pitched a clean ninth, ending the game by striking out Leon.

Devers is now the youngest position player to ever start a postseason game for the Red Sox. He is the third youngest Boston player over all, behind pitchers Ken Brett (19 in 1967) and Babe Ruth (20 in 1915).

TV: Bob Costas and Jim Kaat called the game for the MLB Network. They both looked like warmed-over death and by the middle of the first inning, I was reaching for the radio option. Listening to the Astros radio guys (Robert Ford and Steve Sparks) was not ideal - they got a bit too giddy as the game went on - but they must have been far easier on my ears than Costas/Kaat. ... Are those two really the best that the MLB Network can hire? It seems hard to believe that the best analyst they can find is a 79-year-old white guy who was yelling at "players today" to get off his lawn two decades ago.

A few Costas-related tweets: "Bob Costas is already talking about the Red Sox 2018 season in the sixth inning of Game 1 in a three-run game." ... "Bob Costas is an all time shitty personality, announcer, and human being. Holy shit Bob you need to disappear" ... "I wish I was as funny as Bob Costas thinks he is".

Chris Sale / Justin Verlander

Bogaerts, SS
Nunez, DH
Benintendi, LF
Betts, RF
Moreland, 1B
Pedroia, 2B
Devers, 3B
Leon, C
Bradley, CF

In Sale's last seven regular season starts, he allowed 7, 0, 3, 0, 4, 0, and 5 runs. ... Sale did not face the Astros in 2017. ... This will be the first postseason game of his career.

Sale: "I'm 28 years old, so I've been waiting for this for about 23 years. This has been a long time coming."

Verlander made five starts (all in September) after joining the Astros. He allowed only four runs in 34 innings (1.06 ERA), while walking five and striking out 43. ... He had a 1.31 ERA over his last eight starts.

Verlander faced the Red Sox twice as a member of the Tigers in 2017: on April 10, he allowed one unearned run in seven innings, and on June 10, he pitched five innings and allowed three runs.

(The Red Sox's ALDS roster and some of Alex Speier's observations are in comments. The game thread is here.)

Over The Monster's Matt Collins notes that Sale is pitching on eight days rest:

[It's] the second time he's gotten that much rest this season. The other, of course, was coming out of the All-Star Break. All he did in that game was toss 7.2 scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts and two walks against a dynamic Yankees lineup. ...

The lefty has made 24 career starts with at least six days of rest ... this includes Opening Days, for what it's worth — and he has a 1.88 ERA with 189 strikeouts and 34 walks in 167.2 innings. ... Among the 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings on six-plus days of rest since 2010, only Clayton Kershaw has allowed a lower OPS to his opponents. If you're curious, Justin Verlander is 21st on this list with a .646 OPS that is tied with David Price.

As far as coming back in Game 4, Sale has never* pitched on three days rest in his major league career. (*: While Sale did have just three days rest before a start on May 12, 2012, he had pitched only one inning of relief in the prior appearance.)

Collins adds that Red Sox manager John Farrell needs to be flexible with Craig Kimbrel:

Houston's lineup is absolutely loaded with right-handed talent. This is where John Farrell comes in. At some point before this series, he needs to let Kimbrel [who allowed RHB a .109/.156/.180 line in 136 PA] know that he is liable to come in at any point over the last few innings depending on the situation. ... That means, if the top of the Astros lineup is coming up for the eighth inning, that's when Kimbrel needs to enter the game. ...

The Red Sox will need a big performance from their bullpen in this series if they are going to advance to the ALCS, and that starts with Kimbrel. ... Farrell and company cannot mess around in these situations and rely on their second-tier relievers despite how good they've been all year. In Kimbrel, Boston has a unique weapon seemingly designed to shut down this Astros team. It's just up to them to be unafraid to use it.

Evan Drellich, NBC Sports:

[I]f Addison Reed is in trouble with two on in the eighth inning and none out and the heart of the order up, it's going to be difficult for Farrell to justify reserving Kimbrel for the ninth, or for a four-out save.

"Without the intent of using him in the ninth?" Farrell said when asked Tuesday if he'd go to Kimbrel in the eighth. "It would probably depend upon who was used prior to that. ... I feel like there's probably two or three guys down there who are interchangeable at the highest-leverage spots of the game right now." ...

Kimbrel, however, is not one of those guys. He is, per FanGraphs, the second most valuable reliever in the majors this season, behind the Dodgers' Kenley Jansen. Price may be awesome. He's looked it so far. Reed's dominant too.

But Kimbrel is a different weapon, and by far the most valuable Farrell has. ... Farrell must be willing to remove Kimbrel from the ninth inning entirely if need be.

John Tomase, WEEI:

Farrell touched on a number of issues, including the potential use of closer Craig Kimbrel, who could get the eighth inning instead of the ninth if the situation warrants it.

"I think that's going to depend on how the lineup stacks up," Farrell said. ... "Kimbrel in the eighth vs. someone else in ninth, Craig and I will speak. It's something we've talked internally about already." ...

What Farrell described as the "all-hands-on-deck" nature of the postseason, however, often calls for relievers to be deployed more aggressively, as the Indians proved last year with Andrew Miller. So Farrell will not mess around in the eighth if the Red Sox get in trouble -- he'll summon Kimbrel.

Farrell rarely thought very far out of the box during the regular season. But the Red Sox need a Playoff Assassin in the dugout. I'll be honest: I have absolutely no idea if Farrell will be (or can be) flexible with his relievers. (How David Price is used as a multi-inning reliever will also be interesting. In three games over a four-day span, Price retired 12 of 14 batters, with seven strikeouts. WEEI's Rob Bradford sees Carson Smith as a semi-secret weapon.)

Boston went 3-4 against the Astros in 2017:

At Houston
June 16: Red Sox 2, Astros 1
June 17: Astros 7, Red Sox 1
June 18: Red Sox 6, Astros 5

At Boston
September 28: Astros 12, Red Sox 2
September 29: Astros 3, Red Sox 2
September 30: Red Sox 6, Astros 3
October 1: Astros 4, Red Sox 3

Projected Starters
Boston

1B Mitch Moreland     .246/.326/.443   .769 OPS    99 OPS+
2B Dustin Pedroia     .293/.369/.392   .760 OPS   100 OPS+
SS Xander Bogaerts    .273/.343/.403   .746 OPS    95 OPS+
3B Rafael Devers      .284/.339/.482   .821 OPS   112 OPS+
LF Andrew Benintendi  .271/.352/.424   .776 OPS   103 OPS+
CF Jackie Bradley     .246/.324/.405   .729 OPS    90 OPS+
RF Mookie Betts       .264/.344/.459   .803 OPS   108 OPS+
C  Christian Vazquez  .291/.331/.406   .738 OPS    92 OPS+
DH Hanley Ramirez     .242/.320/.429   .750 OPS    94 OPS+

Houston

1B Yuri Gurriel       .297/.330/.481   .811 OPS   123 OPS+
2B Jose Altuve        .347/.411/.549   .961 OPS   166 OPS+
SS Carlos Correa      .315/.391/.550   .941 OPS   159 OPS+
3B Alex Bregman       .285/.353/.477   .830 OPS   129 OPS+
LF Marwin Gonzalez    .303/.375/.530   .905 OPS   149 OPS+
CF George Springer    .283/.367/.522   .889 OPS   145 OPS+
RF Josh Reddick       .314/.367/.484   .847 OPS   134 OPS+
C  Brian McCann       .241/.323/.436   .759 OPS   110 OPS+
DH Evan Gattis        .263/.311/.457   .767 OPS   111 OPS+

(Those OPS+ numbers are extremely depressing.)

MLB Ranking of 10 Postseason Teams

OPS

1. Astros       .823
2. Cleveland    .788
3. Yankees      .785
4. Nationals    .782
5. Rockies      .781
6. Cubs         .775
7. Diamondbacks .774
8. Dodgers      .771
9. Twins        .767
22. Red Sox     .736

Opponents OPS

1. Dodgers      .671
2. Cleveland    .673
3. Yankees      .680
4. Nationals    .703
5. Diamondbacks .707
7. Red Sox      .712
8. Cubs         .713
9. Astros       .720
20. Rockies     .771
22. Twins       .776

Runs per Game

1. Astros       5.53
2. Yankees      5.30
3. Rockies      5.09
4. Cubs         5.07
5. Nationals    5.06
6. Cleveland    5.05
7. Twins        5.03
8. Diamondbacks 5.01
10. Red Sox     4.85
12. Dodgers     4.75

Run Differential

1. Cleveland    +254
2. Yankees      +198
3. Astros       +196
4. Dodgers      +190
5. Diamondbacks +153
6. Nationals    +147
7. Cubs         +127
8. Red Sox      +117
9. Rockies      + 67
12. Twins       + 27

SoSHer KillersBs:

The key question for me is: how does a team with a 92 OPS+, 92 WRC+ score 785 runs, 4.85 per game, better than AL average of 763 runs or 4.71 per game? ...

1. The team was 8% better than league average with RISP, and 14% better with 2 outs RISP.

2. Baserunning. Even tho they led the league in Outs on Base, they were near top of league in stolen base and other base running stats, such as going 1st to 3rd.

Tim Britton, Providence Journal:

[Rajai] Davis is the kind of runner who can steal a base when everyone knows he's going to steal a base, which is important because, when he pinch-runs this month, everyone will know he's going to steal a base. ... The Astros are not a team with many weaknesses, but their inability in holding runners glares like the Texas sun. Opponents were successful on 102 of 116 attempts stealing against Houston. ... Houston's four highest-leverage relievers combined to allow 26 steals on 29 attempts.

Alex Speier, Globe:

The Red Sox outperformed the league [ERA] by 15.3 percent — their biggest margin since Babe Ruth was a member of the rotation in 1918. ...

The Red Sox bullpen, for the year, received credit for a 10.63 WPA — the highest in team history, nearly 30 percent better than any other team in the majors, and the eighth-highest mark by any team since the statistic has been tracked (starting in 1974).

Solid pitching and smart, aggressive baserunning will be the keys, and maybe the bats will get hot a couple of times.

After Sale and Drew Pomeranz in the first two games, it's possible that Doug Fister could start Game 3 with either Rick Porcello or Eduardo Rodriguez in Game 4. ... Game 3 will be on Sunday at 2:30 PM.

Eduardo Nunez says he's ready to play. Manager John Farrell: "Everything points to him being available." Since the 19-inning marathon on September 5, Nunez has played in parts of only three games: September 6 (7 innings), September 9 (2 innings), and September 25 (5 innings).

Among SB Nation's predictions: ALDS: Astros 6 votes, Red Sox 3 votes.