Pedro Precise In Mound Session. "For the first time in 135 days, Red Sox ace Pedro Martinez stepped on a pitcher's mound and threw a baseball. Rust? Invisible. Quality of the stuff after that considerable layoff? In the opinion of [Dave Wallace], "ridiculous." Martinez threw 49 pitches from the bullpen late Sunday morning and the results were typically sparkling. ... 'It felt great, actually. For so long without actually touching the mound, I thought it was great. Nice and loose, smooth. I thought I was going to be more divorced from the mound than I was. I got a little bit excited today and I actually threw all three pitches and all three seemed to be pretty comfortable. It's the first time ever that I threw breaking balls on the first time out on the mound. I normally just throw fastballs. This time I felt like I could do that, I had the luxury to do that."

Schilling's throwing BBs, Pedro's got 3 pitches working already, Nomar's spraying the ball to right field, Manny looks fierce, and we got Jesus Christ playing centerfield. It Is On.

Springtime For Bronson. Mr. Arroyo's first thought when told he'd be facing the Yankees next Sunday? "All right, Terry wants to see what I've got right off the bat.'" ... Pitching coachs Dave Wallace and Mike Griffin (Pawtucket) have nothing but praise for Arroyo.

Bombo Productions, a New York City sports and entertainment company, was given special access to the Red Sox last year and its as-yet-untitled film about the 2003 season may be in theaters by Opening Day. Team VP Charles Steinberg: "It is the story of the season through the eyes of about six fans ... from the time tickets went on sale, through Opening Day, watching games at home or listening on the radio. It's the emotional ride fans went through from the start to finish, with humor and pathos."

Curt Schilling is working on his relationship with Jason Varitek as much as his pitching arsenal, which now includes a cut fastball. ... Pokey Reese talks about growing up poor in Columbia, South Carolina. ... If it weren't for bad luck, Bryce Florie would have no luck at all. Damn. ... Chat with Jerry Remy tonight 7:30 pm.

BlogWatch: Alex Belth of Bronx Banter presents a two-part roundtable on the 2004 Yankees with Larry Mahnken (Replacement Level Yankees Weblog), Tim Marchman (New York Sun), Buster Olney (ESPN), Alan Schwarz (Baseball America, ESPN), Joe Sheehan (Baseball Prospectus), Joel Sherman (New York Post) and Glenn Stout (Author of Red Sox Century and Yankees Century). ... Dirt Dogs has an excerpt from Rob Bradford's book "Chasing Steinbrenner: Pursuing the Pennant in Boston and Toronto." ... Articles We Never Finished Reading: "If you're a Boston Red Sox fan, you worry. What if all those guys who had 'career years' in 2003 fall short in 2004?"

A few weeks ago, Rob Neyer reported that the performance of baseball's 10 greatest hitting catchers dropped a cumulative 31% from age 28-31 to 32-35. El Guapo's Ghost wonders what that means for Jason Varitek. ... Jeff at The House That Dewey Built looks at the AL East's catchers. ... Colby Cosh created a 2-D projection of the K/Inn, BB/Inn and HR/Inn of each ERA qualifying pitcher from 2003. Thanks to PSF for the link.

Theo Epstein on Byung-Hyun Kim: "He definitely is an X-factor for us because his ceiling is so high. He hasn't gone out and done it in that role [starting]. Until he does, we'll all be very anxious to see what he does. ... I remember when he gave up those bombs to the Yankees in the World Series. I was watching the game with a couple friends and said, 'Maybe this could be an opportunity. Maybe they'll be down on him if they go on and lose the World Series and maybe we [San Diego] can trade for him.'" ... Epstein said he pretty much spent the entire 2002-03 off-season pursuing Kim before acquiring him in late May for Shea Hillenbrand.

From e.e gammings: "For those Red Sox fans that marvel at what may be the best pitching staff in the game, but fear that pitchers like Tim Wakefield, Derek Lowe -- who is so focused on his job that he can never remember to sell his used frog on EBay -- and Scott Williamson might get overused so much their arms turn into rhinos, Boston had only nine games in the last four weeks in which they didn't use at least three pitchers. Simply yipes."

Green Light Means Go. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection for the AL East:

Team        Record   RS    RA     Diff  Deficit
Yankees     105-57   920   654    +266      0
Red Sox     105-57   922   661    +261   -  5 
Blue Jays    84-78   856   826    + 30   -236
Orioles      82-80   789   773    + 16   -250
Devil Rays   64-98   712   900    -188   -454

Will Carroll has BP's Red Sox Team Health Report: "Pedro gets a yellow light based on injury history, but honestly, he's much less likely than last year to come up lame. ... Four years removed from his shoulder surgery, Schilling may surprise people by being a green light player ... Kim's yellow light is cautionary, but again, like last year, there is a greater chance of him breaking out than breaking down. ... [T]he only red light on the team is prodigal DH Ellis Burks [but] as a platooned DH, he's also very unlikely to play so much that he injures himself. ... For Varitek, position and age are enough to push him slightly into the yellow. ... When I sat down to go through all the factors, I fully expected the Sox to look as colorful as the Yankees THR. Instead, there's enough green in that lineup to cover the Monster--and perhaps enough to get past the 'Evil Empire' once and for all."

Dan LeBatard, Miami Herald, on the "caveman culture of sports": "You will find more homophobia per square foot in a professional sports locker room than you will find just about anywhere else in America outside of a Klan meeting ... So while homosexuality makes that arduous walk toward America's altars ... you still won't find it anywhere near here, in the locker room where being a felon, rapist or cheat remains preferable to being gay."

The Hair Is A Hit. Some search strings that led people to this blog yesterday:



johnny damon hair
johnny damon haircut
johnny damon's spring training haircut
johnny damon long hair
johnny damon beard
johnny damon long hair and beard
johnny damon with long hair
johnny damon reports with beard
johnny damon 2004 beard
johnny damon caveman
damon, johnny jesus
johnny damon jesus
journal charles manson 2004

Manny Speaks Out, Curt Throws BP. Ramirez shared his thoughts about the Red Sox off-season with Deron Synder. "I can't be mad at anybody. I'm happy to be back with the guys. What happened in the winter happened, and it's in the past. ... I have five years left, and I'd like to stay here and finish my career in Boston. ... There are probably some people who think I'm difficult because I don't talk that much in the press. But I get along with everybody. I'm not mad at the press. They have a job to do. ... I'm not mad just because sometimes they write some stuff." Even so, he made it clear he was not doing any other interviews.

Pedro on Manny: "We wish he had more awareness and knowledge and understanding for certain stuff. ... But we can't ask him to have it all. We'd all like to be good at all things. But we're not. He's not a bad guy. He doesn't harm anybody or offend anybody. He's a pleasure to be around."

Spring Starters:
March 4* v Twins : Derek Lowe
March 5 v Boston College: Tim Wakefield
March 5 v Northeastern: Curt Schilling
March 6 v Twins: Byung-Hyun Kim
March 7 v Yankees: Bronson Arroyo

* - That's next Thursday!!!

Curt Schilling threw 45 pitches in live batting practice Saturday morning. MLB's Ian Browne says he looked in complete control, fired a barrage of nasty offerings to Jason Varitek and didn't take it easy on Brian Daubach, Adam Hyzdu or Cesar Crespo. Daubach: "He looked like he was game-ready. He meant business out there for sure. He didn't want anyone to hit him and he threw great. ... I think he was just trying to get used to throwing to Jason a little bit too. That's probably why he was taking it a little bit more seriously." ... Schilling began studying video of Boston's four AL East opponents about six weeks ago: "Anywhere from a half-hour to two, three, four hours a day depending on the schedule."

Pedro Martinez may throw his first side session on Sunday. ... Keith Foulke appears to be completely over the strained calf he suffered earlier in the week.

In the latest posting of "Baseball Prospectus Basics" -- Stolen Bases and How to Use Them -- Joe Sheehan makes a point that argues for placing Johnny Damon in the #8 spot. "Much of the frustration 'statheads' have with base-stealing isn't that it's happening, but with how teams misuse the tactic. You want to steal bases when: ... The batter at the plate is much more likely to score the runner from second than he is from first. Teams will often use their best base stealers at the top of the lineup, even players with low on-base percentages, in front of their most powerful batters. In fact, they should be using those players lower in the lineup, in front of their least powerful hitters. Risking an out to advance from first base to second base is much more important when the guy at the plate can't get the runner home from first base."

Sheehan also posted the run-expectation table from 2003:

     Bases               Outs
                   0       1      2
------------------------------------
      empty   0.5219  0.2783  0.1083
        1st   0.9116  0.5348  0.2349
        2nd   1.1811  0.7125  0.3407
    1st 2nd   1.5384  0.9092  0.4430
        3rd   1.3734  1.0303  0.3848
    1st 3rd   1.8807  1.2043  0.5223
    2nd 3rd   2.0356  1.4105  0.5515
1st 2nd 3rd   2.4366  1.5250  0.7932

A similar mindset exists about sacrifice bunts. With a runner on 1st and 0 outs, a team could expect to score .91 runs. However, bunting the runner to 2nd (and using up an out) lowers that expectation to .71 runs. Sacrificing a man from 1st to 2nd with one out already on the board lowers the team's run expectation from .53 to .34.

A New York sportswriter plays "What If?" and imagines Nomar signing with the Yankees and playing 2B. Another writer, also out of ideas, quotes Jason Giambi saying such a scenario "would be nice." Viola -- instant non-story.

Two Quotes.

Rick Santorum, on the 700 Club: "[T]he consequence is very clear. Marriage loses its significance. People will stop getting married. Homosexuals will not get married; heterosexuals will stop getting married. And that to me is the real threat to the American family and to the culture generally."

Rep. Seaborn Roddenberry of Georgia, on introducing an anti-miscegenation amendment to the Constitution in 1911: "Intermarriage between whites and blacks is repulsive and averse to every sentiment of pure American spirit. It is abhorrent and repugnant. It is subversive to social peace. It is destructive of moral supremacy, and ultimately this slavery to black beasts will bring this nation to a fatal conflict."

Thanks to Atrios.

One Hour. It's another Friday afternoon news dump. Preznit Bush will answer questions from 9/11 Commission Chairman Thomas Kean and Co-Chairman Lee Hamilton -- in private and for only one hour. One hour! Sixty fucking minutes. ... Bush spent more than 2 hours at this year's Daytona 500.

Bush, like any other person offering testimony, cannot dictate the terms of his interview. Besides insisting that it will decide who Bush meets, where he meets them, and for how long he will sit there, perhaps the White House could script the Commission's questions too. ... Bush, Cheney, Clinton and Gore should appear before the entire 10-member Commission and they should stay until all members have asked all their questions. Also, broadcasting each session live would be an excellent affirmation of our open, democratic society.

Allowing Bush to meet behind closed doors with a man who was doing business with Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law (Kean) and a man who actively helped derail the Iran-Contra investigation (Hamilton) does not inspire much confidence. Call the Commission at 202-331-4060 if you're as disgusted as I am.

Other Bush news from Friday: He "plans a week of heavy fund raising ... Bush starts with a reception Monday for the National Republican Senatorial Committee in Washington. ... On Wednesday, Bush flies to Los Angeles for a pair of fund-raisers ... Bush has a third California fund-raiser scheduled for Thursday in Santa Clara. ... Bush opens the following week with a pair of fund-raisers, including events in Dallas and Houston. Those two fund-raisers bookend an appearance by Bush at a Houston livestock and rodeo event." ... Well, it's no wonder Bush can't spare more than an hour; that's one busy schedule. Check out Uggabugga's cool pie chart.

I read that Kean appeared on C-SPAN yesterday and said fighter planes were not scrambled on 9/11 because the US military was not expecting attacks from inside the US. It's highly disturbing that Kean continues to trot out this long-discredited myth. Here are a few points (if you want dozens and dozens more, go here):

Time, June 20, 2001: "For sheer diabolical genius (of the Hollywood variety), nothing came close to the reports that European security services are preparing to counter a Bin Laden attempt to assassinate President Bush at next month's G8 summit in Genoa, Italy. According to German intelligence sources, the plot involved Bin Laden paying German neo-Nazis to fly remote controlled-model aircraft packed with Semtex into the conference hall and blow the leaders of the industrialized world to smithereens." (Also here, here and here.)

Condoleeza Rice received an intelligence summary on June 28, 2001, which stated "it is highly likely that a significant al Qaeda attack is in the near future, within several weeks." ... On July 5, 2001, Richard Clarke, the government's top counterterrorism official, warned that "something spectacular is going to happen here, and it's going to happen soon."

A widely-distributed FAA document from July 2001: "A domestic hijacking would likely result in a greater number of American hostages but would be operationally more difficult to accomplish. We don't rule it out. If, however, the intent of the hijackers is not to exchange hostages for prisoners but to commit suicide in a spectacular explosion, a domestic hijacking would probably be preferable."

The President's Daily Briefing given to Bush on August 6, 2001 warned that bin Laden may hijack airplanes for a terrorist attack within the United States. At the time, Bush is on vacation in Texas (for the entire month); the New York Times reports he "broke off from work early and spent most of the day fishing."

On the morning of September 11, John Fulton, a 25-year veteran of the intelligence community and the CIA's Chief of the Strategic War Gaming Division, and his team were "running a pre-planned simulation to explore the emergency response issues that would be created if a plane were to strike a building." ... Yet Rice stated on May 16, 2002: "I don't think anybody could have predicted that they would try to use an airplane as a missile, a hijacked airplane as a missile." Months later, she changed her tune slightly.

Also: The 9/11 Commission now has until July 26 to complete its work. Speaker of the House J. Dennis Hastert reversed himself yesterday and announced that he would support the 60-day extension.

Operation October Surprise? Asheq Hossein, the director of Iran radio's Pashtun service: "Osama bin Laden has been arrested a long time ago, but Bush is intending to use it for propaganda maneuvering in the presidential election."

One of the sources for the report was Shamim Shahed, the Peshawar bureau chief of the English-language Pakistani newspaper The Nation. Shahed claims he was misquoted, but he did add: "[OBL] is within their (the Americans') reach, and they can declare him arrested any time." ... The Pakistani military and the Pentagon both deny the report. ... For what it's worth, it was the Iranian press that first announced Saddam Hussein's capture, scooping the US by several hours.

Rumsfeld's visit to the region this week was allegedly in connection with the arrest, but on Thursday, he discounted reports that US forces may be close to locating bin Laden. ... Cartoon.

The US "is scaling up its military presence in Africa as concern mounts over terrorist threats — both immediate and future — on the continent ... Africa is a growing strategic interest to the United States because of its terror links and its oil ... [Air Force Gen. Charles] Wald's trip includes stops in regional military powers Nigeria and South Africa; oil-rich Angola, Gabon and Sao Tome and Principe ... [Wald:] 'Waiting for a crisis to occur just isn’t the way to do business any more.' ... Further south, the United States wants to protect oil supplies in the Gulf of Guinea." [Emphasis not in original, of course.]

Apparently, Antonin Scalia has a habit of hanging out with parties with cases pending before the Supreme Court and then ruling in their favor.

The Professional. Bill Mueller gets all the ink today: Fort Myers, Courant, Projo, Herald, Globe and MLB.

Spring Rotation:
Thursday night v. Twins: Derek Lowe
Friday afternoon v. Boston College: Tim Wakefield
Friday night v. Northeastern: Curt Schilling

Pedro Martinez will oppose Sidney Ponson in Baltimore on Opening Night, April 4. ... Martinez also shared some secrets with Anaheim's Bartolo Colon this past winter. ... Boom! So, can we blow up Gump?

Extension for 9/11 Commission Denied. House Speaker Dennis Hastert will not extend the May 27 deadline for the 9/11 Commission to finish its work. From Hastert's spokesman: "He thinks the report is overdue and we need to get the recommendations as soon as possible. He is also concerned it will become a political football if this thing is extended and it is released in the middle of the presidential campaign." Calpundit asks: "Aren't you supposed to at least pretend that you're motivated solely by what's best for the country? But here we have Hastert's spokesman blithely admitting in public that he doesn't want to let the commission do its job properly because it might be politically inconvenient for the president. They don't even have the good grace to lie about this stuff anymore."

George Bush and Dick Cheney "have placed strict limits on the private interviews they will grant to the [Commission], saying that they will meet only with the panel's top two officials and that Mr. Bush will submit to only a single hour of questioning ... Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, [has] rejected [the Commission's] request that she testify in public about the intelligence reports that reached her desk before the Sept. 11 attacks." ... Commission member Bob Kerrey (who joined the Commission only recently, replacing Max Cleland) is considering resigning because of the ongoing obstruction from the Bush administration. "I am no longer ... feeling comfortable that I'm going to be able to read and process what I need in order to participate in writing a report about how it was that 19 men defeated every single defensive system the US put up to kill 3,000 Americans on Sept. 11."

"British spies were bugging UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's office in the run up to the Iraq war, former UK cabinet minister Clare Short has claimed. ... From March 2003: "The existence of the surveillance operation, understood to have been requested by President Bush's National Security Adviser, Condoleezza Rice, is deeply embarrassing to the Americans..." (More) ... "Pentagon officials have confirmed that Guantanamo detainees may still be kept in detention, even if they are found not guilty by a military tribunal."

The first Gallup poll conducted on the issue of interracial marriage showed that 94% of whites opposed such unions. That was in 1958, nine years before the Supreme Court ruled in Loving v. Virginia that miscegenation laws were unconstitutional. Someday this country will view same-sex marriage in the same light most of us now view interracial marriage.

Evil Empire Update. Bernie Williams had an emergency appendectomy today and will be out of action for at least three weeks. ... Aaron Boone was released. ... Darryl Strawberry resigned as a player development instructor to spend more time with church-related activities. ... The Yankees and Red Sox are 1-2 in ESPN's Power Rankings.

Hair's Johnny. Jesus Christ, Charles Manson, Grizzly Adams -- Johnny Damon is hearing them all this spring, thanks to a full beard and shoulder-length hair. Damon clearly favors the Christ comparision -- he entered the Red Sox complex yesterday saying, "Bless you. Bless you all." -- but Manson looks like a better match. Charlie has a stronger throwing arm, but he's a bit of a clubhouse cancer.



Meanwhile, Pedro's thinking about a Royale with Cheese and a somewhat-frizzy Manny Ramirez looks like he's in fantastic shape.



Damon is also 15 pounds heavier, though he says the weight is "solid muscle" and not merely hair. "In my off-season workout, I live on a street where there's 25 mph signs and the cops get you if you go anything over. I'll wait on the side of the street ... late at night. A car starts coming, I'll race it to my house. So I know I can go at least 25. I scare the cars to speed up a little more, seeing a caveman-looking guy, long-haired, running after the car at 10 or 11 at night. ... But you know, I'm gaining weight the right way. I'm drinking beer."

David Heuschkel of the Hartford Courant relates this story about Damon and Ramirez: "Ramirez was standing in a hotel lobby in Texas last season when he was approached by a teammate. 'I had my cowboy hat on,' Johnny Damon said. 'I walked up to Manny and was talking to him. He didn't know it was me.' Damon said Ramirez walked away in the middle of the conversation. Damon learned the next day that he was a total stranger to Ramirez. 'I was like, "Manny, we're talking and then you just blow me off. I was the one wearing the cowboy hat!" He's like, "No, no, no, Poppy [sic]. That wasn't you."'"

Damon also mentioned "devastating" migraines that began every day after the playoffs, usually around 2pm and lasting for more than an hour. He did not say whether they were the result of his collision with Damian Jackson during the ALDS or from Gump's gift-wrapping the pennant for the Yankees. Now clear-headed, Damon added: "We have the best chemistry, the best team, the best pitching. We have the best team out there, hands down."

Pedro Admits He Was Shocked By Gump's Idiocy. Pedro Martinez did some stretching, long tossing and fielding drills and will not throw off a mound for a week. He was asked about Game 7: "It really wasn't wanting to stay. I was asked a question whether I wanted to pitch to Matsui or not. ... I was actually shocked that I was staying for the last two or three hitters. ... I was not insisting on staying in the game. I was a little scared to leave the game, but it really wasn't my decision." ... Lawrence Rocca of the Newark Star-Ledger: "All these months later, none of us can understand why Little blew that choice between his red-hot bullpen and his worn-out starter. We might find out how those giant statues got on Easter Island before we ever get a logical explanation."

Pedro on on the media: "I wish I never had to talk. I don't like you guys. I don't like talking but I have to. I do it especially to get along. I don't want to be a bad apple. Tomorrow I won't be talking. Whenever there's a need or if you guys feel I really need to talk, I will to help your jobs. ... I dislike the cameras and I dislike the media." More in the Courant, Herald and Globe.

Nomar Garciaparra spoke about the possible trade and his future in Boston: "[E]veryone's intelligent around here. I feel like anyone else would feel in that situation. Was I hurt? Absolutely. ... [B]asically I was gone (this winter). I've dealt with that already. As far as I was concerned, I was traded and it was a done deal. ... We were so close last year. We had a phenomenal team. I think we have an even better team this year. I'm looking forward to going out there and playing next to those guys." ... And: "Am I still mad? Well, I don't know about all those things. I was definitely hurt by a lot of it. ... But the good thing, the great thing, is I'm right here in front of all of you guys." [Also: here and here.]

Everything Nomar said sounded pretty normal -- a guy being honest about how he felt and how he's dealt with it. Now, I did not hear any of the interviews, but what's been reported in the papers seems somewhat differently than how it reads on the screen. Tony Massarotti, in the Herald: "The bitterness is still there, in his eyes and in his voice...." In two Herald pay columns, Steve Buckley said Nomar had a "Volkswagen-sized chip" on his shoulder and Gerry Callahan claimed "Garciaparra sounded yesterday like a man who just caught his wife with the pool boy." In the Globe, Bob Hohler wrote that Nomar "unleash[ed] his most emotional rebuke of the Red Sox in his 10-year run with the organization [and] raised serious questions about his long-term compatibility with the team." while Gordon Edes described "anger, hurt, and resentment." To Edes's credit he also pointed out that "the Sox felt they had no choice but to explore the A-Rod avenue because they had serious doubts about their ability to keep Garciaparra in a Sox uniform -- at least, for the price they were willing to pay."

Outside of Boston, the perception was a little different. The headlines in the Newark Star-Ledger ["Nomar Arrives At Ease With Past"] and New York Post ["Red Sox Fit Nomar Just Fine"] seemed rather benign. Shaun Powell of Newsday sees no gloom or doom in the Sox camp. ... As Garciaparra said, "I'm excited that my socks are still red."

Interesting quotes from Theo in Callahan's column: "It's not ideal to have so many guys (in their last year), but I'm not afraid of it at all. You know what I'm afraid of? Being stuck with a bunch of big contracts three or four years from now, and you can't move them, and you can't do what you have to do to make your team better. ... I remember when this team let Roger Clemens and Mo Vaughn walk. Some people thought that was some kind of huge mistake. But they let Mo become someone else's $66 million mistake, and they replaced Roger with Pedro Martinez. Does that sound like a disaster? Hey, it's always a risk when you let someone walk away, but that's part of the job. We're in the business of team-building, not individual-building."

The Red Sox will hold their first full-squad workout today. ... Some good stories on the return of Ellis Burks. ... The Red Sox are considering starting Byung Hyun Kim in the 4th game of the season and having Tim Wakefield pitch the home opener on April 9. ... Johnny Damon has a beard "and looks like he went the entire winter without a haircut." ... Bronson Arroyo turned 27. ... Fenway groundskeeper Paul K. Williams Jr. is suing former Yankees Jeff Nelson and Karim Garcia for more than $33,000 for medical bills, lost wages and his sense of smell. ... Mediot Watch: Steven Krasner, Providence Journal: "In Game 3, an ineffective [Pedro] Martinez precipitated a brawl by drilling Karim Garcia with a pitch ..." Actually, if Garcia was indeed hit by the pitch (video was inconclusive), it only grazed him near his shoulder blades.

E.E. Update: The Yankees signed 1B Travis Lee to a 1 year, $2.25 million contract, with an option for 2005, and released infielder Tyler Houston. Pitcher Jon Lieber is expected to miss about a week of spring training because of a groin injury, and the team is taking a look at both Orlando Hernandez and Pedro Astacio. ... Steinbrenner says the Red Sox are the favorites in the AL East and referred to Theo Epstein as "Esposito" (he has also called him "Oppenheimer" in the past).

Pedro.



"I'm not interested in talking about my contract right now. My situation is not a big deal right now. I think we have a good enough team to win this year if we stay healthy. I would just like to concentrate on that and leave the contracts and stuff behind me. ... I've always said, that I would like to retire with a Boston hat. ...

"I feel great physically. I actually feel like in those young days when it was easy to pick up a ball and just gas it somewhere. I hope I can maintain that. ... I feel all the work I've done the last two years is paying off. Everything is just fluent. Right now my body is reacting extremely well. I don't feel like 190. Before I felt a little heavy. I felt uncomfortable a little bit. Now I feel I got used to it. I feel equally as loose and actually throwing the ball a little harder."

No Guarantees. Re: Kevin Millar's comment to the New York Post: "I honestly believe that we're going to win the World Series this year." Several Yankees, speaking to two other Post reporters, acted like Millar had guaranteed a World Series title. Joe Torre seemed to understand where Millar was coming from. "That's the way to go to spring training. That's the way to do it." Nothing wrong with Millar's statement. Shouldn't every Yankee feel the same way about his team's chances? ... There will be plenty of fodder for the rivalry this year; there is no need to make anything up.

It turns out George Steinbrenner will not file a grievance with the Commissioner's office over John Henry's quasi-comparision of the senile Yankee owner to Don Rickles. Steinbrenner did, however, fire back with a quip of his own: "As far as Henry is concerned, he reminds me of Ray Bolger, the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz."



Alan Embree wants to stay in Boston. If he pitches in 50 games this season, his $3 million option kicks in for 2005. "I'd love to just tear it up and get something else done. ... My mentality is much better suited to this brand of baseball. ... I like it when it's on the line and every day it's on the line (in Boston)." ... Terry Francona on Curt Schilling: "I thought he put on a clinic. ... (Schilling's) command today was much better than the other day. He was crisp with everything. That's the way he pitches." ... Francona said that he's not planning to have any intra-squad games prior to the Grapefruit League opener against Minnesota on March 4. ... Keith Foulke, who suffered a minor left calf strain Sunday, did some long-distance throwing and indoor conditioning. ... Jason Giambi says he lost, at most, 4 pounds this winter. Some say it was as much as 25. You be the judge.

A couple of new websites I found yesterday: yankeesredsox.com and Fenwaynation.com.

Best Projected Rotations 2004. BP's Dayn Perry takes the VORP for each projected rotation member and uses the team totals to determine the rankings.

Rank    Team                    Total Rotation VORP
1.      Red Sox                 217.4
2.      Cubs                    191.9
3.      Yankees                 188.2
4.      A's                     151.8
5.      Astros                  148.9
6.      Mariners                122.4
7.      Phillies                120.2
8.      Angels                  118.2
9.      Twins                   114.0
10.     Blue Jays               112.6
11.     Diamondbacks            106.1
12.     White Sox               102.6
13.     Dodgers                  98.7
14.     Marlins                  94.1
15.     Cardinals                93.3
16.     Padres                   90.1
17.     Royals                   89.5
18.     Giants                   87.3
19.     Expos                    70.7
20.     Orioles                  70.0
21.     Pirates                  65.9
22.     Braves                   64.3
22.     Mets                     64.3
24.     Indians                  59.7
25.     Rangers                  57.7
26.     Rockies                  48.8
27.     Brewers                  43.3
28.     Reds                     42.3
29.     Devil Rays               41.8
30.     Tigers                   37.3

Perry notes: "The staggering VORP projection of Boston's Pedro Martinez (70.0) is better than that of the entire rotation of 10 other teams. ... PECOTA projects only a 7.0 VORP for Jon Lieber, which sounds a bit low. He seems like a good bet to heartily outperform the projection, and the Yanks could wind up with a better corps than the Cubs. ... PECOTA says the second-best starter on the Angels isn't Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar or Ramon Ortiz; rather, it's John Lackey. ... [I]t may come as a surprise that PECOTA tabs [Toronto] as having the seventh-best rotation in the AL. It's possible the best three teams in baseball may all be in the AL East."

Michael Wolverton on Support-Neutral Stats: "The idea behind the pitcher's W/L record is flawed on its face. ... If the offense fails to put runs on the board, or if the bullpen melts down in the late innings, the starter won't get the win no matter how well he pitches. Conversely, if the offense is having a great night ... the starter doesn't have to do anything more than last five innings to get the W. ... [T]here's been a gradual (very gradual) movement among baseball fans over the past 20 years to pay less attention to W/L record and more to ERA in pitching evaluation. And that's a good thing, since ERA is a good statistic. ... [But] it's not without its limitations."

Who am I kidding? I'll never stop linking to discussions of the Yankees' 3B/SS debate. Will Carroll thinks moving Rodriguez to 3B "could cost [the Yankees] three wins" and in the 2004 AL East, "that's a lot." ... Icy Jeter Seems to Have Left A-Rod in the Cold : "A friend of Jeter said the shortstop never relents once he holds a grudge, cutting out anyone from his small inner circle he feels has betrayed him. 'What is amazing," the friend said, "is how easily he does it. He doesn't have vendettas. He doesn't have fights; I don't think I've even ever seen him raise his voice. He doesn't do confrontation. He just puts an ice wall up and you're done.' ... Rodriguez is voracious and wants to swallow New York whole. ... Now, at best, Jeter has been downgraded to co-prince of the city."

2003 Koufax Awards. For the best lefty blogs. ... Who nabbed the top two spots in this week's Top Ten Conservative Idiots? ... Salon: "Several people confess that they've never done more with a computer than check their e-mail. Others admit they haven't even gotten that far. An impromptu contest develops to see exactly who knows the least. ... Our clueless bunch is now part of the technical-support staff for one of the world's top three computer manufacturers, and in seven days we're going to be taking your calls."

Storylines. Keith Foulke is the man getting the most attention in today's papers. "I like to be under the radar as much as possible, [but] it's probably not going to work this year." Foulke sustained a mild strain in his left calf on Sunday during a fielding drill and cut his workout short. ... Mike F reports on Sunday's workout.

Kevin Millar in the New York Post: "I honestly believe that we're going to win the World Series this year. ... I think we still have the better lineup. I can't wait to get after them. I really can't. ... When you're outside it, if you're a baseball fan, you understand that this is a pretty hot rivalry. But once you're on the inside ... it's just something else. Something incredible. And it's going to get even bigger this year." Millar also is not ready to surrender his oft-quoted slogan from last year. "[I]f I want to cowboy up, I'm going to cowboy up. Mirabelli is not going to tell me what to do."

2004 will be a pivotal year for Byung-Hyun Kim and he could play an important part in the Battle with the Yankees. He wants to start and now he will get that chance -- for a manager who will not jerk him in and out of vastly different roles. Boston showed its commitment to the 25-year-old right-hander and signed him to a two-year contract. Gordon Edes says the Red Sox believe they erred in allowing Kim to become isolated from the rest of the team last season, but Kim doesn't really agree. "I feel comfortable being by myself. ... When I'm by myself, I can focus more, and concentrate on baseball alone. ... I have a desire to be the best pitcher in baseball. I want the chance to be considered the best. And in the history of baseball, the starting pitcher has always been the best ... Also, being a closer for one or two years is OK, but it's very stressful." I don't know how Kim's relationship was with Schilling in Arizona, but since Curt has mentioned how talented he believes Kim is, perhaps he'll play a mentoring-type of role.

On Sunday, Edes wrote that during negotiations with Boston, Alex Rodriguez apparently spent "a considerable amount of time" saying how much he hated the Yankees. Rodriguez is quoted elsewhere as saying at that time "about three-fourths of my body [was] wearing a Red Sox uniform." ... New York Daily News: "Further annoyed at John Henry for the Red Sox owner's public comments Saturday comparing him to Don Rickles, Yankee owner George Steinbrenner is planning to file a grievance with the commissioner's office against Henry." Maybe he can go after Padres owner John Moores next: "George is one of the most profoundly selfish people I've ever known. I don't know if Steinbrenner is losing his mind as he gets older."

Random Stuff: Outfielder Gabe Kapler took grounders at third base and will also work out at first. ... Rule 5 lefty Lenny DiNardo cut short his workout because of shoulder stiffness. ... Pedro Martinez is expected in Florida today and will work out Tuesday. ... Sidney Ponson will oppose Martinez on Opening Night April 4 in Baltimore. ... Yankee pitcher Kevin Brown sustained a right ankle bruise after being hit by a ball on Saturday. ... New York's 3-4-5 batters will likely be Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield. ... Pirates infielder Freddy Sanchez might not be ready to start the season because of a right ankle injury. ...

Jackie MacMullan of the Globe was in the Cubs' camp Mesa, Arizona, where she spoke with the Grinning Jackass. ... Ian Browne of mlb.com posts five important questions for the Sox this spring: How is Pokey Reese's health? Will Tony Womack make the team? Can Ellis Burks play the outfield? How quickly will manager Terry Francona get on the same page with his new players? Who will emerge as the No. 2 hitter? ... Could Joe Nuxhall, baseball's youngest major leaguer (15 years, 10 months and 11 days), also become its oldest -- at age 76?

Oy. "[T]he true value of what [Tino] Martinez brings to the Rays extends beyond his bat and glove. It can't be measured statistically, not unless the sabermetricians have developed a program to quantify heart, experience, leadership, determination and intensity."

Official 1st Day, P&C. Mike F reports from Fort Myers ("Met up with a handful of familiar season ticket holders and we all compared the scar tissue on each other's wrists."). ... The practice was watched by approximately 1,000 fans, which surprised Terry Francona (who was up at 4:40 am) when he first saw them.

Ramiro Mendoza has an abdominal strain that will set him back at least a week. Pitcher Reynaldo Garcia missed the first workout because of a visa problem. ... Derek Lowe: From Cowboy Up to the Last Roundup. "We've made Doug Mirabelli in charge of the 'Cowboy Up' police," Lowe said. "We've got to get it all out of here." ... Byung-Hyun Kim prepared for the opening of camp by working out for nearly three weeks at Boston College. ... Tony Cloninger was in uniform as the team's senior pitching advisor.

Schilling left wearing a replica 1919 Babe Ruth Red Sox jersey (with the number 3). However, the Red Sox did not have numbers in 1919; no team wore them for another 10 years. Ruth was given #3 in 1929, when he was 34 years old, which is why he is always big-bellied when you see him wearing #3.

Dan Shaughnessy, Saturday's Boston Globe: "Schilling's cars have made a big splash in Fort Myers. The white BMW (760) with the spinning hubcaps is nifty, and then there's the vintage Hummer that changes colors depending on where you stand (blue to purple to green to teal)." ... Schilling, later that day, at SoSH: "Just for clarities sake, and for the sake of good honest reporting, I don't own a "Beemer", nor do I have hubcaps that spin, though my son does on his John Deere Tractor I think." ... SoSHer Chico Walker and the Man envisions tomorrow's headline: "Primadonna Schilling questions the integrity of the Boston Media: insists on luxuries such as 'accuracy in reporting.'"

Tony Massarotti believes the Red Sox should offer Nomar six years at $75-$78 million (more than Baltimore gave Miguel Tejada and slightly more than the 4/48 offer from last season). "If Garciaparra takes it, he wants to stay. If he doesn't, he doesn't." Six years seems a big steep for this ownership group. I don't see Nomar getting more than five, and from what is known of previous discussions, four years is more likely. ... Speaking of Garciaparra, Art Martone continues his look at the 2004 team and who is likely to improve, stay the same or decline.

Miami Herald: "Psst! The Red Sox are a better team in 2004. ... [T]he Red Sox remain superior on the mound, especially at 1-2-3-4 in the starting rotation. ... The Sox scored almost 100 more runs than the Yanks and will be an offensive powerhouse again. All New York has done is draw even, or (benefit of doubt) gain a slight edge." Another Herald writer disagrees.

Not that he's ever known what he's talking about, but -- David Wells: "On paper, [New York] looks good, but they've got a few holes. It's not in their lineup, but it's their pitching. ... If their pitching stays solid, they will win that division. But, right now as you look at it, Boston has the edge because they've got the pitching, and you cannot win without the pitching." ... T.R. Sullivan of the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram is on the pipe: "The Yankees? Their lineup is so loaded that Rodriguez could conceivably break the single-season record of 177 runs held by Babe Ruth. Seriously. Rodriguez averaged 127 runs per season with the last-place Rangers."

John Henry is taking the flap caused by his Steinbrenner-related email in stride, offering a few comments: "I don't want to give the commissioner a headache, so I shouldn't really go down that road. ... I was a [limited] partner [of the Yankees]. I've seen bellowing, and this isn't out of character. ... [Steinbrenner] was on the phone with the commissioner the same time I was on the phone. I called in and I was hoping the three of us could get together. It would have been funny." ... Henry also called Steinbrenner baseball's version of Don Rickles. ... Gordon Edes prints some of the more outlandish criticisms and notes: "In the barrage of criticism aimed at Henry, no one bothered to mention that the Sox owner has been consistent in his calls for some restoration of economic balance in the game ... There was a time, in the '90s, when even the Yankees expressed support for a salary cap."

Esquire writer Scott Raab once quoted Alex Rodriguez: "Jeter's been blessed with great talent around him. He's never had to lead. He can just go and play and have fun. And he hits second — that's totally different from third and fourth in a lineup. You go into New York, you wanna stop Bernie and O'Neill. You never say, 'Don't let Derek beat you. He's never your concern.'" Now Raab admits, "[A]s a die-hard Cleveland Indians fan and lifelong Yankees hater, if I had dreamed that Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez would ever play side by side in the Yankee infield one dark day, I would have done a more thorough job of ruining their friendship."

Alan Schwarz, New York Times: Joe Torre "cited no hard evidence to support his claim that Jeter is the superior defender. ... Instead, he burrowed into the impregnable haven of opinion, where baseball arguments go to die. 'There's something special about Derek Jeter. It's something that you can't put down on paper.' And that was that." ... Schwarz notes that "fielding statistics remain a fossilized snapshot of the game's younger days, when folklore reigned over figures," but that is slowly changing.

Frank Jobe loves White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen: "I want these guys ready to throw nine innings right from the get go. ... We have a young pitching staff, and I'm going to give the opportunity to let them go as far as they can. We have one month to go, and if they can't get ready in one month, they better get another job."

Who's In Camp? Theo Epstein last week that Boston would have only 52 players in camp. I haven't seen an actual list yet, but the 40-man roster and 12 Non-Roster Invitees (with an *) equals 52.

 Pitchers              B/T  Ht   Wt   DOB
 56 Edwin Almonte      R/R  6-3  220  12/17/76 
 61 Bronson Arroyo     R/R  6-5  190  02/24/77 
 68 Colter Bean        R/R  6-6  255  01/16/77 
 37 Nick Bierbrodt     L/L  6-5  215  05/16/78 
 40 Jamie Brown        R/R  6-2  200  03/31/77 
 63 Lenny Dinardo      L/L  6-4  195  09/19/79 
 43 Alan Embree        L/L  6-2  190  01/23/70 
 29 Keith Foulke       R/R  6-0  210  10/19/72 
 62 Jerome Gamble      R/R  6-2  200  04/05/80 
 53 Reynaldo Garcia    R/R  6-3  170  04/15/74 
 70 Tim Hamulack       L/L  6-4  210  11/14/76 
 59 Bryan Hebson       R/R  6-5  210  03/12/76 
 36 Bobby M. Jones     R/L  6-0  170  04/11/72* 
 51 Byung-Hyun Kim     R/R  5-9  180  01/19/79 
 32 Derek Lowe         R/R  6-6  215  06/01/73 
 46 Mark Malaska       L/L  6-3  190  01/17/78 
 67 Anastacio Martinez R/R  6-2  180  11/03/78 
 45 Pedro Martinez     R/R 5-11  180  10/25/71 
 26 Ramiro Mendoza     R/R  6-2  195  06/15/72 
 39 Paul Rigdon        R/R  6-5  240  11/02/75*
 38 Curt Schilling     R/R  6-5  235  11/14/66 
 73 Phil Seibel        L/L  6-1  195  01/28/79 
 57 Jason Shiell       R/R  6-0  180  10/19/76 
 50 Mike Timlin        R/R  6-4  210  03/10/66 
 49 Tim Wakefield      R/R  6-2  215  08/02/66 
 48 Scott Williamson   R/R  6-0  185  02/17/76 
 66 Ed Yarnall         L/L  6-3  235  12/04/75*

Catchers
 74 Jeff Bailey        R/R  6-2  200  11/19/78*
 64 Andy Dominique     R/R  6-0  220  10/30/75 
 58 Michel Hernandez   R/R  6-0  210  08/12/78 
 28 Doug Mirabelli     R/R  6-1  225  10/18/70 
 72 Kelly Shoppach     R/R 5-11  210  04/29/80*
 33 Jason Varitek      S/R  6-2  235  04/11/72

Infielders
 12 Mark Bellhorn      S/R  6-1  205  08/23/74 
 31 Cesar Crespo       S/R 5-11  170  05/23/79*
 23 Brian Daubach      L/R  6-1  230  02/11/72*
  5 Nomar Garciaparra  R/R  6-0  190  07/23/73 
 71 Jesus Medrano      R/R  6-0  180  09/11/78*
 15 Kevin Millar       R/R  6-0  210  09/24/71 
 11 Bill Mueller       S/R 5-10  180  03/17/71 
 34 David Ortiz        L/L  6-4  230  11/18/75 
  3 Pokey Reese        R/R 5-11  190  06/10/73 
 20 Terry Shumpert     R/R  6-0  200  08/16/66*
 16 Tony Womack        L/R  5-9  170  09/25/69*
 55 Kevin Youkilis     R/R  6-1  220  03/15/79

Outfielders/DH
 25 Ellis Burks        R/R  6-2  205  09/11/64
 18 Johnny Damon       L/L  6-2  190  11/05/73 
 30 Adam Hyzdu         R/R  6-2  220  12/06/71* 
 19 Gabe Kapler        R/R  6-2  210  07/31/75 
 10 David McCarty      R/L  6-5  215  11/23/69*
  7 Trot Nixon         L/L  6-2  210  04/11/74 
 24 Manny Ramirez      R/R  6-0  215  05/30/72

October Surprise in February? A British Sunday newspaper claims Osama bin Laden is currently "boxed in" by US special forces in a mountainous area to the north of the Pakistani city of Quetta. His movements are being monitored by an NSA satellite and special forces are "absolutely confident" there is no chance of escape. ... The White House denied the report. ... A second report says bin Laden's location was pinpointed after the CIA studied the background in a recent OBL video and found it matched rocks in the Toba Kakar ranges. "CIA agents, working with Pakistani guides, went from Afghanistan to the region to take photographs and bring out rock and soil samples. These were flown to Washington where the CIA analysts electronically matched them to the video background." Oh, you have got to be kidding me!

John Kerry has released a open letter challenging George W. Bush to a face-to-face debate on the Vietnam era and the impact of their experiences on their approaches to presidential leadership. "I'd like to know what it is Republicans who didn't serve in Vietnam have against those of us who did. ... We're not going to let them make this about a war 34 years ago, when we need to talk about the war today." Kerry cannot allow the Republicans to define the terms of debate or hope any accusations simply vanish. He must be the anti-Dukakis (and anti-Gore, for that matter).

Headlines: "Disenchanted Bush Voters Consider Crossing Over" ... "Security Efforts Turning Capital Into Armed Camp" ... "CIA Admits Didn't Give Full Weapons Data To UN" ... "Why Bush Stopped Flying in Guard Unclear" ... As someone who has had to put two dogs down, I can understand the sadness the Bush family must feel about 15-year-old Spot, but I wonder why Bush still refuses to attend the funeral of even one 18- or 19-year-old American solider.

Predictions, Part II. Part I is here. This is from Athlon:

AL East     AL Central    AL West
New York    Kansas City   Anaheim
Boston      Minnesota     Oakland
Baltimore   Chicago       Seattle
Toronto     Cleveland     Texas  
Tampa Bay   Detroit

NL East     NL Central    NL West
Atlanta     Houston       San Francisco
Phillies    Chicago       San Diego
Florida     St. Louis     Arizona
New York    Cincinnati    Los Angeles
Montreal    Milwaukee     Colorado
            Pittsburgh

Wild Cards: Boston & Philadelphia
AL Pennant: Anaheim over New York
NL Pennant: Houston over San Francisco
World Series: Houston over Anaheim
AL MVP: Garrett Anderson, Alex Rodriguez, Vernon Wells
NL MVP: Jim Thome, Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds
AL Cy Young: Tim Hudson, Pedro Martinez, Jose Contreras
NL Cy Young: John Smoltz, Mark Prior, Brandon Webb
AL Rookie: Joe Mauer, Minnesota
NL Rookie: Kazuo Matsui, Mets

For the AL East, here are Athlon's pithy comments:
New York Yankees -- Still rule improved AL East.
Boston Red Sox -- Grady bleeping Little.

Memo to Athlon: I understand you can't pack much analysis into 4-6 words, but Grady Little is no longer employed by the Red Sox. ... As for Pedro's predicted 2nd place finish for the Cy Young, Athlon writes: "Needs lots of bullpen help." But how will that help Martinez's Cy Young chances? The only way it helps is if award voters look solely at wins, a stat the pitcher has very little control over. When you see Hudson's comment ("Just a few blown saves from award in '03") you realize that is exactly what Athlon is saying. Is Joe Morgan writing for these guys now? ... And I love this comment for Contreras: "Is it that far-fetched?" Actually, yes, it is.

The First Domino. In Fort Myers Friday, it was all-Schilling, all the time. The right-hander has been working out at the same facility in Arizona Nomar Garciaparra has used for years. "I'm more flexible than I've ever felt. Throwing-wise, I'm feeling good enough to be nervous about how good I feel. ... I firmly believe that from top to bottom this is going to be the best team I've ever been on, with every opportunity to win a World Championship and multiple World Championships."

Schilling is also high on Byung-Hyun Kim. He "could go out and win 20 games if he's got his mind set to go out and do that. ... BK is as talented a pitcher as I've ever pitched with. ... I know he didn't end the season on the smoothest of circumstances, but that's last year. And if he's got pride and integrity, then he'll have answered a lot of questions himself this winter." ... A t-shirt hanging in Schilling's locker: "You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say will be misquoted, and then used against you." It should be fun watching him handle the Boston media.

Schilling's Plan Of Action: He wants to throw 28-32 innings this spring and doesn't want to face any AL East teams. He hopes to make at least 35 starts and pitch 245 innings. And he's working on a new pitch, possibly a curveball or changeup. ... He also gets some press in the New York Post and the Daily News; the latter tabloid claims Schilling came close to calling John Henry a hypocrite for his salary cap comments a few days ago. Not quite. ... Tim Wakefield also spoke to the Post.

Dave McCarty would like to pitch his way onto the team, a la Brooks Kieschnick of the Brewers. McCarty, a lefty, threw in the bullpen several times last September, though the last time he pitched seriously was in high school. Terry Francona called the idea "different" yet "very intriguing." ... Jeff Horrigan and Bob Hohler chat with Brian Daubach. ... ALCS? Mike Timlin and Tim Wakefield have moved on. [I've added the Fort Myers News-Press to the Sox Media list to the left.] ... Gabe Kapler has changed his uniform number from 29 to 19 to accommodate Keith Foulke.

Albert Pujols signed a 7-year, $100 million deal with the Cardinals. It will pay him $7 million this year, $11 million in 2005, $14 million in 2006, $15 million on 2007 and $16 million per year from 2008-2010. So while Nomar may have more leverage in contract negotiations now that Rodriguez is in New York, the salaries being doled out this winter (to Pujols, Tejada, Guerrero, etc.) clearly show that Garciaparra will not get as much as he would like from Boston. $14 is probably as much as he could hope for.

More Schilling: "I don't know that this rivalry has ever been at the intensity level it's at now and we haven't played a game yet. We haven't even had a workout yet. ... The American League East is going to be settled on the field, as it should be, and I think the two best teams in the game are in this division. And we're going to have 19 chances to beat up on each other to prove who's better." At least 19 chances.

On The Road.

           AVG   OBP   SLG 
Player A  .282  .384  .577 
Player B  .306  .350  .567

Dayn Perry: "Player A is A-Rod away from Arlington last season; Player B is Soriano away from Yankee Stadium last season. Closer than you'd think, no? ... The Yankees parted with one heck of a hitter despite having no apparent replacement." Perry, who writes the "Can of Corn" column for Baseball Prospectus, also weighs in on the Yankees' 3B/SS situation.

This ESPN poll, unless it was wildly distorted by hordes of Red Sox fans, lends credence to Perry's argument: "Who is the better defensive shortstop? Alex Rodriguez 72.4%, Derek Jeter 27.6%. Who should the Yankees move to third base? Alex Rodriguez 62.3%, Derek Jeter 37.7%." ... "Yanksfan vs. Soxfan" -- a blog which has serious potential this year -- has a post today entitled: "Piazza, Jeter, and New Positions."

Final thoughts on Alex Rodriguez and media perception: The Yankees did not best the Red Sox or out-smart them in any way by trading for Rodriguez. John Henry et al. decided to nix the deal from their end on their own terms. Taking a sober look at their finances, the Red Sox chose not to make the deal. Naturally, that doesn't make for the best storyline; you can't wedge any Curse Talk into that scenario. ... In New York, Joel Sherman reports today that "A major-league official who speaks regularly to the Rangers told The Post that Texas was so financially desperate to get out of the bulk of A-Rod's contract they would have done the deal without getting Alfonso Soriano in return." If true, this underscores (in really dark ink) the fact that Texas's negotiations with Boston and New York were wildly different.

Head Case. "You know better! You understand the vast conspiracy to keep Red Sox fans down. ... Now you can show your Red Sox pride while protecting yourself from the powerful mind control rays used by the Evil Empire to control their hidden army of sports journalists and major league baseball executives. ... The Tin Foil Red Sox Cap blocks all harmful mind control rays surreptitiously broadcast by the YES Network, including the ultra-powerful "WTF Rays" that caused Grady Little to leave Pedro in to start the 8th inning of game 7. Order yours today! Operators are standing by."

Larry Mahnken at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog crunches some numbers (here too): "The first thing that stands out is that last year's Yankees lineup projects as being a better hitting team than last year's or this year's Red Sox lineup. As wrong as that sounds, it kind of makes sense when you figure that Bernie, Giambi, Nick and Jeter were hurt last season. I still don't necessarily agree with it, so there's an issue you can have with these numbers. But then, this projects the Red Sox to score about 950 runs this season, so maybe they're not that off. ... The Yankees' top three starters are fantastic, and much better than Pettitte and Clemens would have been, but the bottom is a bit shakier. ... PECOTA says the Red Sox rotation is better than the Yankees. Barely. What stands out here is how crucial the Curt Schilling accquistion was for the Red Sox, how important it is for Byung-Hyun Kim to succeed as a starter ... Boston's bullpen is about the same as New York's overall, but the Yankees have two pitchers [Rivera and Gordon] that rate better than anyone in Boston's pen. But then, Boston has a lefty [Embree] who's not only above-average, but considerably so." The Pythagorean Winning Percentage Formula projects 106 wins for the Yankees and 108 wins for the Red Sox.

Travis Nelson, aka Boy of Summer, on the Rodriguez Trade: "I cannot, for my life, figure out why the Rangers would do this. ... They have argued that his enormous contract (all together now: $252 million over ten years) was a millstone around the organization's collective neck, preventing them from acquiring the pitching they needed to compete. This is ridiculous."

Letters to Theo: G-e-t V-i-d-r-o!

Leading Off. Okay, first day of spring training in Fort Myers -- what should we talk about? How about who won't be suiting up for the 2005 Red Sox? ... Sigh. Not that the issue of the potential free agents -- Pedro Martinez, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Lowe, Jason Varitek, David Ortiz and Scott Williamson -- isn't a legitimate issue -- those are some pretty big names -- but I do hope the Boston media turn their collective attention to this season soon.

Speaking of Pedro, he may not arrive in Florida until next Monday because of a family medical issue. Epstein: "We'll know more about that in the next couple of days. ... It's very, very legitimate and a serious issue that requires his attention." ... In New York, Filip Bondy writes: "Now that the stardust has settled and the sour grapes are drying on the vine, it may be time to whisper the truth that no Yankee fan wants to hear: Last laugh aside, the Red Sox had by far the better offseason. It is not an easy thing to write ... [but] Epstein filled his two biggest holes and lost no stars and is in Fort Myers with the more balanced team."... The best pitching staff in the AL?

Ian Browne, mlb.com: "Pitchers and catchers began reporting to camp at the team's minor league complex Friday morning, with the first workout under new manager Terry Francona slated for Saturday. ... Right-hander Curt Schilling -- the glitzy new addition to the starting rotation -- arrived Wednesday and immediately threw off the mound. ... Fort Myers resident Derek Lowe is also well into his spring conditioning program and will go into the season at full throttle. ... Kevin Millar didn't wait until the full squad reports on Feb. 24. He arrived Thursday night and he said earlier this week he's never been so excited for a season to begin." [More]

According to Bob Hohler, "The Sox are expected to take a close look during spring training at whether to alter their regular lineup. The possibilities could range from flip-flopping Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez in the third and fourth slots to experimenting with replacements for Johnny Damon as the leadoff hitter." ... Now this I like. Damon's .345 on-base percentage was one of the worst of the regulars (Walker .333, Nomar .345) and yet Gump glued him to the top of the order while AL batting champion Bill Mueller (.398 OBP, 2nd to Manny's .427) hit 8th. Notice how Gump batted the two worst OBP guys 1-2 almost all year long? God, I hate that &*%#@ moron.

Blogger El Guapo's Ghost lists 3 rules for managers regarding batting order: (1) Communicate with your players and find out where they, honestly, are most comfortable; (2) Other than the leadoff position*, have your best hitters bat first. The more at-bats going to your best hitters - the better; and (3) If the hitters are essentially equal, flip-flop RHB and LHB for better late inning match ups. [*Hitting leadoff is the only exception because it is advantageous for the first hitter to see as many pitches as possible for his teammates to get a feel for the stuff the starter has on that particular day.]

I generally agree with EGG's points, and because I put more emphasis on batting order than most sabermetric studies say I should, I like the openness of Francona and Epstein. I wouldn't mind seeing Nixon and Mueller bat 1-2 against right-handed pitchers and then replacing Nixon with Damon against lefties. Some Damon numbers:

2003    AB   AVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
#1     571  .266  .334  .392   .726
#7       7  .429  .600  .429  1.029
#8      19  .474  .565  .895  1.460
#9      11  .182  .308  .182   .490

2001-03 AB   AVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
#1    1673  .265  .333  .387   .720
#2     156  .321  .384  .532   .916
#8      20  .450  .542  .850  1.392

It's a small sample, but maybe Damon really likes hitting 8th. Here are his numbers for leading off an inning:

2001-03 AB   AVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
       700  .276  .332  .393   .725

I don't know how many more runs the Red Sox could have been expected to score in 2003 if Damon had batted 8th and he did see a lot of pitches per PA (4.1, 4th in the AL, behind Jason Giambi (4.2) and Frank Thomas and Edgar Martinez (4.3)). I guess the question Francona should ask Damon is: How comfortable does feel about batting somewhere else in the order? Judging from what little evidence we have, his performance doesn't appear to suffer. ... And I want Manny hitting third.

Finally, there are a few reports that the Red Sox and Yankees are interested in 38-year-old Orlando Hernandez. However, Hernandez recently turned down an offer to audition in Fort Myers because, according to his agent, he did "not [want] to look too eager or desperate." Uh, okay. Hernandez will have an open workout in Miami on Monday (at his last workout back on January 22, his fastball never topped 78 mph), so I guess the Red Sox will send someone for curiosity's sake. ... The Yankees have assigned Fat Billy's #22 and Andy Pettitte's #46 to Joe Girardi and Donovan Osborne, respectively.

Sour Grapes? Here is the complete text of John Henry's comments:

"It will suffice to say that we have a spending limit and the Yankees apparently don't. Baseball doesn't have an answer for the Yankees. Revenue sharing can only accomplish so much. At some point it becomes confiscation. It has not and it will not solve what is a very obvious problem.

"More often than not, $50 million, on average, will not allow a major league baseball franchise to field a highly competitive team. Every year there will be an exception, but that is really the baseline number. So what has meaning are the dollars spent above $50 million. Most clubs can perhaps afford to spend $10 million to $25 million above that figure trying to compete. A few can spend as much as $30 million to $60 million above that. But one team can and is spending $150 million incremental, and at some point 29 owners and their players say to themselves, 'We can't have one team that can spend $10 above the baseline for every incremental dollar spent by an average team.' One thing is certain the status quo will not be preserved.

"Fifty-seven percent of baseball fans polled this week by ESPN.com characterized this week's events as 'disgusting' and 'sad.' As for me, although I have never previously been an advocate of a salary cap in baseball out of respect for the players, there is really no other fair way to deal with a team that has gone so insanely far beyond the resources of all the other teams. There must be a way to cap what a team can spend without hurting player compensation in toto without taking away from the players what they have rightfully earned in the past through negotiation and in creating tremendous value. Revenue sharing alone, sufficient to address a problem of this magnitude, would require pure confiscation -- but there is a simple mechanism that could right a system woefully out of whack.

"Regarding the questions about how I feel about Alex going to New York. Personally, I am very happy for Alex. He very much wanted to play in games that have meaning. This year he will get that chance. We will be ready as well. The Yankees will have spent more than double the incremental dollars we will spend this year. It's a huge advantage, but we're not waving a white flag. We're going to continue to work just as hard to bring home a championship and are fortunate to have fans that are as uncompromising as we are when it comes to demanding excellence."

George Steinbrenner's response: "We understand that John Henry must be embarrassed, frustrated and disappointed by his failure in this transaction. Unlike the Yankees, he chose not to go the extra distance for his fans in Boston. It is understandable, but wrong that he would try to deflect the accountability for his mistakes on to others and to a system for which he voted in favor. It is time to get on with life and forget the sour grapes."

And then Henry: "I've been asked by the commissioner to not respond to the New York Yankees' comments today. I've agreed and will abide by that request. The anticipation about the 2004 season is at an all-time high. So let's shift our sights to the field. Let the games begin."

As one SoSHer wrote, "drivetime talk radio can't start quoting numbers like Henry did -- it would be bad for business so they just go for the easy angle -- Boston vs. MFY over Arod, curse of the whomeever. Once again proving the laziness of the typical media member." [cough] ... While perhaps being issued at the wrong time -- though considering how the rivalry has intensified since last summer, there may have been no right time -- Henry's statement does not sound like whining to me.

And just as the topic doesn't lend itself to soundbites, it isn't easy to offer an opinion in a short blog entry. I do not support a cap on either players salaries or owners profits. And part of the issue with Boston having the #2 payroll is that they play in the same division as the Yankees. If Boston was in the AL Central, I don't think their payroll would be as high as it is now. For 2004, the #1 payroll (Yankees) is approximately twice that of the #5 team (Cubs). And while on one level, that does seem unfair, the Tribune Company, which owns the Cubs, could spend more if it chose. There are no guarantees that spending equals success, but it does allow a team to make a few mistakes (Andy Morales, anyone?) and get away with it.

Then there are issues of what makes a "large market team" in the first place? It clearly isn't tied to population. And what of the penny-pinching owners who apparently pocket any luxury tax monies they receive, refusing to put money back into their teams (which I believe was the whole point of the tax)? Why should the Yankees reward Owner X for not trying to improve his club, for discouraging competition? ... The Red Sox have a clear financial advantage over many other teams and with the construction of new seats on the right field roof, they should be bringing in even more revenue. And that is how it should be. Both the Yankees and Red Sox are supported by big, loyal fan bases and they both should be allowed to use that loyalty to improve their product. And as pointed out in the SoSH thread, when you look at team payrolls as a percentage of published revenues, the Yankees and Red Sox spend about the same.

It is a very complicated issue and I have no idea how best to solve it (although the SoSH thread does have some suggestions). Perhaps Henry's comments would have been best made in an owners' meeting or brought up around the next CBA negotiations. Either way, Henry must have known the reaction his remarks would get. ... And the rivalry just got a little more heated.

SoSHer Angel Santos in Red notes the "extreme circumstantial luck" the Yankees had re: A-Rod. "They needed (a) a superstar to want out of an organization; (b) a signed player to break his contract by playing a pick-up game of basketball and end his season with an injury; (c) said superstar – noted for his superior defensive prowess – to want to change positions as well as ... (a) have their failed financial commitment in a no-hit 3B prospect nullified by his desire to void a $12M contract and play for the NFL team that just drafted him and (b) get out from under Boone's contract to make Arod a wash financially. George and the media come off as incredibly savvy, but some need to realize and credit luck with the way some of these stars aligned." ... As Ian Browne points out, the Rodriguez deal was simply a better match, in terms of both players and money, for New York. The Yankees did not "out-smart" Boston.

Also: "The Sox were relieved to find out that there was no truth to the rumor that Pedro Martinez had been involved in a serious car accident in the Dominican Republic. ... Martinez, who was in Boston yesterday, is expected to report on time with the rest of the pitchers and catchers tomorrow." ... Curt Schilling: "The way I've got it figured, I'm starting that first game vs. the Yankees (April 16 at Fenway Park) because of the way the rotation falls on that Friday. I've known that for about two months and I'm nervous about it and excited about it. Our schedule is not going to be easy. This division is going to be incredibly tough, but I look forward to stuff like that and that's one of the reasons I came here, to be a part of that. You can treat it the way you want, but I need to dwell on it and let it simmer. ... If Red Sox fans weren't passionate and angry and pissed off and bitter and didn't hate the Yankees, they wouldn't be who they are. Same thing with Yankee fans."

Thirty Seasons. In a Sox Therapy thread about the possibility of getting Soriano to play 2B in Boston, "SG" writes: "I've been running some Diamond Mind sims with Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections disk, and here are the results after 15 seasons":

                 Yankees     Red Sox
Avg Wins:          99.6        98.5
Avg Losses:        62.4        63.5
Actual Win%:       .615        .608
Pythag Win%:       .619        .614
High Wins:          113         111
High Losses:         71          81
Avg Runs Scored:    906.5       882.1
Avg Runs Allowed:   710.7     [blank?]
High Runs Scored:   988         939
Low Runs Scored:    822         823
High Runs Allowed:  776         798
Low Runs Allowed:   670         629
Division Titles:     8           7
Wild Cards:          6           5
Missed Playoffs:     1           3

SG's comments: "Obviously, these don't mean much, but it's kind of interesting to look at. It looks like the Yankees are projected to be a little better on offense, and a little worse on defense (pitching + fielding). About one game separates these teams, even after getting Rodriguez. As Joe C. said, the Yankees may have the higher ceiling, but the risk of implosion is also greater. ... Incidentally, Rodriguez averaged .291/.380/.550 [and] 41.7 HR, with a low of 32 and a high of 51. Best Avg. was .348, worst was .254 (think Steinbrenner would like that?). ... OK, I ran another 15 simulations, putting the total at 30 seasons. Here's the AL East data" [he includes all 5 teams in the thread]:

                  Yankees    Red Sox
Avg Wins:           99.9       99.2
Avg Losses:         62.1       62.8
Actual Win%:        .617       .612
Pythag Win%:        .620       .617
High Wins:          113         111
High Losses:         76          81
Avg Runs Scored:    905.4       884.1
Avg Runs Allowed:   708.7       696.2
High Runs Scored:  1022         939
Low Runs Scored:    800         823
High Runs Allowed:  780         798
Low Runs Allowed:   654         629
Division Titles:     16          14
Wild Cards:          11          13
Missed Playoffs:      3           3

99.9 to 99.2?!? That is close. ... Also, I have to read up on Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system [I didn't pay that much attention to it last season], because it sure loves the Red Sox pitching staff.

In Fort Myers. Alan Embree and Doug Mirabelli are unfazed by the Rodriguez trade. Mirabelli to a reporter reading a newspaper at City of Palms Park: "Hey, have they got us finishing in last place yet?" Keith Foulke is also in camp. Curt Schilling is expected to arrive today. ... Scott Williamson: "There's no panic here, by any means. One guy is not going to win you a World Series ... I don't see anyone who can hold a candle to us. I still think we have the best team in baseball. ... I want to win a World Series and wear a ring for the rest of my life."

9 Questions as the Red Sox open camp. ... Bill Simmons has 33 random thoughts on the Red Sox/Yankees this season. ... According to Brian Cashman, having Rodriguez and not Jeter play shortstop is "not a consideration whatsoever." And Steinbrenner says he wants Bernie Williams in CF, not DHing.

Thomas Boswell: "The longest, fiercest, bitterest rivalry in the game has been taken far over the top, over the moon it almost seems. Never before has there been such a sense of soul-deep animosity and identity-at-stake competition between two teams that extended through every level of the organization, from ownership through batboys, with players who will be remembered for generations taking the part of human chess pieces. Electric as this confrontation is, the nature of baseball itself brings an extra dimension into play. A level of unpredictability, caprice and psychological drama confounds predictions in baseball more than any other major sport. ... [The Yankees] no longer have four-fifths of last year's pennant-winning rotation. In any confrontation where the Red Sox start Martinez and Curt Schilling, the Yankees are already on the short end of both matchups no matter whom they choose. As for their fourth and fifth starters, the Yankees have names, but little more. ... Some will moan that this monumental Yankees coup is bad for baseball. It's just the opposite. ... But the Yankees, Rodriguez or not, are no longer constructed to be an October juggernaut with special daunting abilities. A great slugging lineup, backed by a pretty good starting rotation, what's that? It sounds like so many Red Sox teams that other Yankee outfits loved to meet."

Sarah at Rally Cuff: "Jim Donaldson, by the power vested in me as the self-appointed Militant Cheerleader of Red Sox Nation, you are hereby cast out of the fold, you miserable puke. If you want to see the Sox lose so bad then why don't you become a Yanks or an A's fan. ... You are beneath my contempt." Ah yes, Donaldson, King of the One-Sentence Paragraphs. While he's sometimes amusing to read in a I-can't-believe-someone-is paying-this-guy-real-money-to-write-this-shit, I will second Sarah's comments and declare Joy of Sox a "Donaldson-Free Zone." ... Speaking of bad writers, Aaron Gleeman takes apart a column written by Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times (also see here). Gleeman also found an older column about Barry Bonds, in which Plaschke wrote (in apparent seriousness): "Last season, one study showed that Bonds reached base 1.1 times per plate appearance."

Alex Rodriguez's New Deal. Despite the size of Rodriguez's contract, at no time will the Yankees pay him more than they pay Derek Jeter.

       Old Deal    Tex    NYY
Signing Bonus      $10
Assignment Bonus   $36
2001   $21 ($5)    $16
2002   $21 ($4)    $17
2003   $21 ($3)    $18
2004   $21 ($3)    $ 3   $15 ($1)
2005   $21 ($3)    $ 6   $15 ($1)
2006   $21 ($3)    $ 6   $15 ($1)
2007   $21 ($3)    $ 7   $16 ($1)
2008   $21 ($3)    $ 8   $16
2009   $21 ($3)    $ 7   $17
2010   $21 ($3)    $ 6   $18
      $252 ($36)   $140  $112 ($4)
(Deferred $ in paraenthesis)

Assignment Bonus: The $36 million in deferred money from the original contract is converted to an assignment bonus, guaranteeing the money against work stoppages. The interest rate on the deferred money will be lowered from the original 3% to 1.75% starting with the date of the trade, and the money will be paid each June 15 from 2016-25 instead of the original schedule of 2011-20.

Assignment Bonus will be paid:
2016: $5 million plus accrued interest
2017: $4 million plus accrued interest
2018: $3 million plus accrued interest
2019: $3 million plus accrued interest
2020: $4 million plus accrued interest
2021: $4 million plus accrued interest
2022: $4 million plus accrued interest
2023: $3 million plus accrued interest
2024: $3 million plus accrued interest
2025: $3 million plus accrued interest

New Deferred Money: The Yankees will defer $1 million annually from 2004-07 without interest, to be paid on January 15, 2011.

Holdover Provisions Opt Out: Player may terminate contract after 2007, 2008 or 2009 seasons. Escalator Team must increase salaries for 2009 and 2010 by the higher of $5 million or $1 million greater than the average annual value of the non-pitcher with highest annual average value.

No Trade Clause: Player may not be traded without his permission.

Award Bonuses:
MVP: $500,000
2nd MVP: $1 million
3rd or more MVP: $1.5 million
MVP voting 2nd-5th: $200,000
MVP voting 6th-10th: $100,000
All-Star selection/election: $100,000
Most All-Star votes in League: $100,000
Baseball America/Sporting News/UPI/AP/USAToday All-Star Team: $100,000
World Series MVP: $200,000
LCS MVP: $150,000
LDS MVP: $150,000
Gold Glove: $100,000
Silver Slugger: $100,000

Truck Day! "The truck will arrive late Wednesday night in Fort Myers and be unloaded Thursday morning."

Well, Here We Go. Murray Chass of the New York Times sets the tone for the framing of the A-Rod Trade with some puke-worthy prose masquerading as "analysis" (and on the front page of the paper, no less):

"In the end, the Yankees' trade for Alex Rodriguez is just another instance in which the Yankees beat the Red Sox. They beat them by finishing first in their division last season; they beat them in the postseason and went to the World Series; and now, in the game of winter hardball, it's Yankees 1, Red Sox 0. The funny thing about this latest competition is that the Yankees were not even competing with the Red Sox for Rodriguez, a star shortstop and the American League's most valuable player last season. When the Red Sox were trying to get him in a trade from the Texas Rangers this winter, they were all alone. ... They had an exclusive period to meet and court Rodriguez, courtesy of an overly sympathetic baseball commissioner, Bud Selig, and they still couldn't win."

This will be -- or already is -- the party line: The Cursed Red Sox and the Mighty Yankees were both bidding for Alex Rodriguez and, as they always do, the Mighty Yankees came out on top. And even though Chass admits this is/was not the case, he still scores it Yankees 1, Red Sox 0 -- though since the Yankees made a play for Curt Schilling before Boston swooped in, at the very least it's 1-1. And with Babe Ruth's name littering ESPN's coverage, the media has fallen in line. The headlines alone give you the flavor (though there are links if you want to wallow):

Summer or Winter, the Yankees Show the Red Sox How to Win (New York Times)
Time to Put Away the Sox (Washington Post)
Curse of the Georgino (Philadelphia Daily News) [SoSH mentioned]
Ho-hum, Steinbrenner Trumps the Red Sox Again (Toronto Globe and Mail)
Bosox in Panic Mode (Bergen Record)
This Rivalry Always Has the Same Ending (Newark Star-Ledger)
Hey, Red Sox Fans, Please Come Back in Off the Ledge (Houston Chronicle)
A-Rod Trade May Haunt Red Sox (Contra Costa Times)
A-Rod's Ruthian Switch (San Francisco Chronicle)

The Boston Herald covers all the bases:
Same old tune written for second fiddle (Michael Gee)
Good news Sox fans: AL East is not lost yet (Steve Buckley)
Sox have only themselves to blame (Gerry Callahan)
NY must still win on field (Tony Massarotti)

Speaking of the Herald, here's today's Gratutious Manny Slam: Tony Massarotti with "Manny Magoo" ... Terry Francona awaits The Truck. ... "Francona Facing Fireworks at Frantic Fenway" ... Derek Lowe comments on A-Rod. ... "Rodriguez Trade Could Kill Sox-Yanks Rivalry" ... Chris Havel, Green Bay Press Gazette: "The New York Yankees are to baseball what dysentery is to the flu. They aren't the sickness so much as an irritating symptom of what ails America's pastime."

And some snips (taking me well into Gleeman-length today!):

Michael Holley: "This is usually the point in the story when someone who is not affiliated with the New York media complains about the evil Yankees and their payroll. That won't happen in this space. The Yankee payroll is not the focus of their matchup with the Sox; the starting pitching is. ... [In 2001, 2002 and 2003] the Yankees lost to teams that had better pitching. As loaded as their lineup is now, they are going to see -- for the first time -- better pitching from a team in their own division. Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, and Derek Lowe are better than any three starters the Yankees have, and they're better in the regular season and postseason. ... New York has someone Boston wanted, but this time the theme is not a tragic one. Bizarre? No doubt. A dose of humiliation after a whole lot of flirting? Uh, yeah. Tragic? Nah. The Sox have some people who can play a little bit, too."

Art Martone: "The Red Sox may have believed they were only potential landing place for A-Rod, and, logically, you can see why they'd think that. The Yankees had Derek Jeter at shortstop and a payroll approaching $180 million. ... You have to think the Rangers agreed, judging by their very public attempts to mend fences with both Rodriguez and their fan base ... up to and including the charade of naming A-Rod captain. But the Rangers weren't looking to trade Alex Rodriguez to Boston. They were looking to trade Alex Rodriguez, period. ... You want to blame the Red Sox for something? Blame them for not understanding that once they didn't acquire Alex Rodriguez, it meant someone else could. Or, more accurately, for taking the gamble that no one else would. ... [B]eating the Yankees just got harder. The decisions the Sox have to make after the 2004 season just got tougher. And the curse chorus -- which would have been silenced forever had Grady Little been alive and well during the bottom of the eighth inning on Oct. 16 -- just got louder."

Newsday: "Multiple baseball sources said the Red Sox reached out to both the Texas Rangers and Rodriguez Saturday. In these discussions, the Red Sox offered to take Rodriguez and his bulky contract "as is" - a stunning reversal from their previous position. According to a source, a mutual friend of both Rodriguez and the Red Sox approached the All-Star on Boston's behalf. ... Rodriguez enthusiastically told the go-between, 'tell [Red Sox president] Larry Lucchino to - off!' Lucchino did not return a phone call for comment yesterday. Through a Red Sox spokesman, general manager Theo Epstein denied the Red Sox made an 11th hour push for Rodriguez. However, he conceded that there might have been communication between the mutual friend and Rodriguez. ... [Rangers general manager John] Hart denied speaking with the Red Sox ..."

Move Over, Derek. So says the front page of today's New York Daily News. The Daily News and the Post are divided over which player should be the Yankees shortstop -- right now, Rodriguez has the edge (1 - 2 - 3 to 1). ... The Toronto Sun: "Rodriguez at third? Give it 20 games"; another columnist says: "By the Fourth of July it'll be A-Rod SS, Jeter 3B."

My partner Laura - who is both a diehard Yankees fan and an Alex fan - says: "Whatever the relative merits of Jeter/Alex/3B/SS may be, at the home opener on April 8, Yankee fans will see their man Derek Jeter - who they revere - in his rightful spot at SS. Anything else would be perceived as a massive, collosal dis and Torre will not do that. How it will play out in the long run, that's another story. But starting the season with Jeter at SS and Alex at 3B is not going to cost them anything significant." ... While it's true that starting the season with Jeter at shortstop wouldn't hurt that much, wouldn't it be a better idea to make the transition before the real games begin? Of course, doing that and then moving Jeter back for the home opener (the 7th game of the season) would be weird. And Torre does have a history of veteran loyalty. ... My take? Both players will practice at third base in spring training and at some point before New York heads to Tokyo to start the season, it will be decided that Jeter moves to third.

Jim Baker, ESPN Insider: "There is one word for the notion that Derek Jeter would be allowed to stay at shortstop while Alex Rodriguez would move to third to accommodate him: silly. Tradition, pride, primacy -- these are all nice words but there are baseball games on the line here. Jeter has gotten so bad at shortstop that not even the staunchest Yankee fan even bothers to defend him anymore." [Well, that's debateable, but anyway ...]

Range Factor among qualifying AL shortstops
2003: Rodriguez -- 5th (4.54); Jeter -- 10th/last (3.75)
2002: Rodriguez -- 4th (4.73); Jeter -- 12th/last (3.81)
2001: Rodriguez -- 2nd (4.72); Jeter -- 10th/last (3.82)

Zone Rating* among qualifying AL shortstops
2003: Rodriguez -- 6th (.859); Jeter -- 10th/last (.791)
2002: Rodriguez -- 1st (.919); Jeter -- 12th/last (.803)
2001: Rodriguez -- 4th (.853); Jeter -- 10th/last (.789)
* ZR: The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.

Baker: "A-Rod should not be displaced defensively by anybody except an Ozzie Smith-caliber shortstop. Just how bad is Jeter at this point? Consider this: defensive Win Shares per 1,000 innings. Most shortstops are over 4.00 in this category. All but four -- including the scrubs, fill-ins, part-timers and cup of coffee drinkers -- were over 3.00. Derek Jeter was at 1.31. Fellow Yankees Eric Almonte and Enrique Wilson were also in the ones while Damian Jackson of the Red Sox was at 2.23. ... Defensive stats are a lot more murky than their offensive counterparts, but the discrepancies between A-Rod and Jeter are so vast that they transcend any murkiness caused by the shortcomings of the tools."

Obit. Lawrence S. Ritter, who wrote many baseball books, including "The Glory of Their Times," died Sunday at his Manhattan apartment. He was 81. "The Glory of Their Times" is a collection of 22 oral histories from deadball-era stars like Ty Cobb, John McGraw, Honus Wagner, Rube Marquard, and Smoky Joe Wood. It was one of the first baseball books I ever read. It was published in 1966 and is rightly regarded as perhaps the best baseball book of all-time (and damn good American history as well). A CD of the interviews (including many not in the book) was released a few years ago. I liked reading that Ritter divided his royalties from the book among the players and their families.

Fun With Anagrams. The bloggers and readers of Corrente offer a long list of anagrams for the Republicans 2004 campaign slogan -- "Steady Leadership in a Time of Change." Here are my top 10:

I'm a hypertense, death-dealing fiasco.
Slimy, cheapish deafening toadeater.
The famed ace is lying, Oedipean trash.
Fleeting hypocrite ass-head idea man.
Honestly! I am a disheartened pig-face.
He is the friendly scapegoat idea man.
Megadeath and hyperfine socialites.
Ape Shit! tone-deaf, hymenial disgrace.
Inane freedoms agitated cheapishly.
Dad cheat? Fly airship? Gee! I am not seen.

Calpundit: "Former Lt. Colonel Bill Burkett says that members of George Bush's staff, along with senior officers at Texas National Guard Headquarters, purged Bush's National Guard files of potentially embarrassing material back in 1997. Is his story true?" With links to transcripts of interviews he's done with the people involved and the journalists who have written about it over the past few years. ... Harry Jaffe of The Washingtonian follows up on the tense exchange between Helen Thomas and Scott McClellan last Friday over whether Bush had been compelled to perform community service in the early 1970s.

Trade Not Final Yet. The MLB Players Association gave its approval to the Rodriguez-to-Yankees deal, but the trade will not be finalized until Monday, at the earliest. According to a Rangers statement: "The Commissoner's Office has notified the Texas Rangers that there will be no decision made by Commissioner Bud Selig today on the proposed trade with the New York Yankees."

According to the terms announced by ESPN, Texas will pay an additional $67 million of Rodriguez's contract. Factoring in what Texas has already paid for the 2001-03 seasons, when all is said and done, Tom Hicks will have paid Alex Rodriguez $140 million for 3 years of work -- a staggering $46.7 million per season. By contrast, the Yankees will pay Rodriguez an average of $16 million for seven years. ... Step aside Bud, it looks like baseball's got a new Supreme Moron. ... Ben Affleck: "George Steinbrenner is the center of evil in the universe."

I Am Ready. There is no way to spin Alex Rodriguez playing for the 2004 New York Yankees as a good thing for the Nation, but after a night's sleep (and even as the deal is being officially announced), I can state that I am not worried. The Yankees are a better team with A-Rod instead of Soriano; only a fool would claim otherwise. His addition does not make the Red Sox worse, although it does lessen whatever puny margin for error existed in the East. ... The existence of the wild card (boo!) certainly removes some of the impact of this deal. Imagine the fervor if the AL East was all-or-nothing.

Let's not forget that Theo & the Trio have put together an amazing team, one that filled the various holes from 2003 (another ace starter, an established closer, a glove at 2B, a competent manager and a stronger bench). Toss in a full season of Scott Williamson in the pen, Byung-Hyun Kim in the rotation and Ortizzle as DH and this is easily the best Red Sox team I've seen in my almost 30 years as a fan.

If Derek Jeter is playing shortstop on Opening Day, I'll be totally shocked. Obviously, there is no way Torre will make any sort of announcement before camp is well underway, but the switch is coming. Why would any team trade for the premier shortstop (and a Gold Glover) and play him out of position in deference to perhaps the least-mobile starting shortstop in the game? ... New York will apparently have no qualms about moving Bernie Williams out of center field for Kenny Lofton, so I believe at some point in March, Cap'n Intangibles will "step up" and step aside.

Speaking of which, in today's New York Post, there is a box entitled "Out of Position." It states: "When Alex Rodriguez joins the Yankees, he'll play third base even though he is statistically a better fielding shortstop than Derek Jeter. ... In the past four seasons, Rodriguez has handled 655 more chances and made 21 fewer errors [than Jeter]." And it includes these statistics:

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs, 2000-03
(runs saved or cost compared to others at position, per 162 games)
Rodriguez -- Saved 10
Jeter -- Cost 28

Range Factor, 2000-03
(putouts + assists per 9 innings)
Rodriguez -- 4.69
Jeter -- 3.87

UZR and RF in the Post? And used to show what a below-average shortstop Jeter is? Strange days indeed.

Dateline November 3, 2000. Alex Rodriguez not looking to be a Yankee
Alex Rodriguez wants to beat the New York Yankees, not play for them. The All-Star shortstop is weighing his options as a free agent, but the Yankees aren't one of his choices. "I would like to sign with another team and help dethrone the Yankees — they've won too much already," Rodriguez said Friday. The Yankees have been rumored to be interested in signing Rodriguez and moving him to third base because they already have his buddy, Derek Jeter, at shortstop. Rodriguez isn't interested in that possibility. "I like playing shortstop and I'm young," the 25-year-old said. "I want to play it until I'm 35 and then I'll study the possibility of being moved."

Check out the big "A-Rod to New York" SoSH thread for over 500 responses (including Curt Schilling at 5:39pm Saturday), stats and the gamut of emotional states. [Royal Rooters and Your Turn]

There is no doubt that the Red Sox knew this was a possibility when they closed the door on a possible Rodriguez-to-Boston scenario. I agree with Zupcic Fan, who wrote in the SoSH thread: "It bothers me that we could have had ARod and Magglio Ordenez and chose not to for financial reasons that would have been risky but probably not prohibitive---and as a result allowed this to happen. If the Yankees are your principal opponent, at least part of your thinking has to be to anticipate these kinds of things. I don't know this for sure, but I suspect that the financial value of having ARod on the team in terms of advertising, product sales, etc would have absorbed some of the money the Sox were worried about."

Go here for links to New York papers. ... According to the Times, the Rangers will also give the Yankees about $67 million, reducing Rodriguez's average annual payment from the Yankees to about $16 million from $25.5 million. ... Bob Ryan compares the two teams as of now and rates them: Boston 5, New York 4, Even 3. ... Derek Lowe on Game 7. ... Art Martone on the Red Sox roster. ... Here's another 4:00 am October call-getter: Adrian Wojnarowski.

Let's also take a moment and give thanks that Grady Little (aka Gump, aka That Grinning Jackass, aka Huckleberry Happytalk, aka That *&$%^# Moron) is gone (Game 7 still hurts, but doesn't his reign of error seems like a loooong time ago?) because every game, every inning, will be critical this season. ... Buffalo Head [2/15/04 4:15 am]: "I would hope you'd support who we are, not who we are not. These 25 individuals have made the choice to work, the choice to sacrifice, to put themselves on the line 162 nights for the next six months, to represent you, this fanbase. That kind of committment and effort deserves and demands your respect. This is your team."

I am ready.

Oh Shit. Newsday moved this story at 3:02 pm: "The Yankees and Rangers have an agreement in principle on a monster trade that will send superstar shortstop Alex Rodriguez to New York in exchange for Alfonso Soriano [and a minor-league pitcher]. No announcement is expected today, as a couple very minor technical details are still to be worked out. However, all sides remain confident everything will be finalized within a few days, a source said. ... The impetus for the deal was Rodriguez's surprising willingness to agree to play third base."

Fort Worth Star Telegram: "Alex Rodriguez could be on his way to the New York Yankees as early as today. Major League officials confirmed that the Rangers have been talking with the Yankees about a trade that would send Rodriguez to New York for second baseman Alfonso Soriano and possibly a minor league player. The teams are awaiting approval from the Baseball Players' Association about minor restructuring of Rodriguez's contract. ... The trade talks have been going on for about a week."

Sportsline.com has totally jumped the gun with this headline: "Yankees acquire A-Rod from Texas for Soriano." ... According to x-jack at Sam Horn, Kevin Kiernan (NY Post) and Tom Keegan (ESPN) "suspected that this was a ploy by ARod/Boras/Hicks to get the Red Sox back into the picture. ARod can veto any trade and Kiernan didn't think he wanted to come to NY and share the spotlight with Jeter -- never mind play third base." ... That is looking less likely as the afternoon goes on, however.

Oh and before I forget. Mike Celizic? You are now on the List -- the List to get 4am wakeup calls when Boston takes the World Series this fall.

Beasts of the East. Could a group of Red Sox and Yankees outperfom an All-Star team drawn from the other 28 clubs? Dayn Perry takes a look. ... Transcript of Francona WFAN interview.

George King of the New York Post reports: "Brian Cashman approached the Rangers about a deal that would have brought Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees [and] the Rangers nixed the deal ..." Cashman said he was doing nothing more than floating a "weather balloon," figuring it never hurts to ask.

MLB has a Q&A with Rodriguez (no real mention of the Red Sox though):
Q: Standing just 60 feet from the pitcher doesn't leave you a lot of time to think, what goes through your head when the pitch is coming?
A: Well, I told you that you pray a lot on the baseball field. When you have Randy Johnson ... you wish that you could go straight to church."

Jim Souhan, Star Tribune: "Will steroid use and accusations of such taint the game, and the records set by massive sluggers such as Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire? In a word, no. ... Here's a short list of the problems baseball has survived: Pep pills. Corked bats. Spitballs. Segregation. Desegregation. Cocaine use. Night baseball. Interleague play. The DH. ... Expansion. Contraction. ... [T]he idea that Bonds' records will be tarnished is the product of overactive imaginations. Babe Ruth played in tiny ballparks, and never had to face a black pitcher or have a home run stolen by a black outfielder. Nobody questions his legitimacy."

Toronto manager Carlos Tosca, on his team's lack of an established closer: "I don't want to have a bullpen by committee or a closer by committee, but I wouldn't mind having a situation where we might go with one guy for two innings one night, then go with match-ups the next night." ... You moron, Tosca, that is exactly what a "bullpen by committee" or a "closer by committee" actually is. Go ask your GM about it sometime. Oh, and have fun fighting the Yankees for second place.

Coup Coup Ka Choo. "In the fall, I sat with Jim March, an anti-Diebold tech expert in Sacramento, Calif., while he showed me on his home PC how to steal an election. ... March helped me open a file containing actual results from a March 2002 primary election held in San Luis Obispo County, Calif. -- a file that March says would be accessible to anyone who worked in the county elections office on Election Day. Following March's direction, I changed the vote count with a few clicks. Then, he explained how to alter the "audit log," erasing all evidence that we'd tampered with the results. I saved the file. If it had been a real election, I would have been carrying out an electronic coup. It was a chilling realization." [Farhad Manjoo, "Will the Election Be Hacked?"]

Miami Herald: "The [Florida] Department of State has notified elections supervisors that touchscreen ballots don't have to be included during manual recounts because there is no question about how voters intended to vote."

WaPo: "Files released by the White House last night from President Bush's Vietnam War-era service in the National Guard ... provide no evidence that he did any military service in Alabama. ... And the records show officials from Bush's home base in Texas declining to provide details of his activities between May 1972 to April 1973, even though such documentation was requested by National Guard headquarters." ... It's getting tough to keep the lies straight. ... Anyone else curious about Bush's community service (done in "inner-city" Houston right after working on the campaign of a segregationist)?

I'm In The Index. Eric Alterman, author of the excellent "What Liberal Media?," has a new book out: "The Book on Bush," written with former New York City public advocate Mark Green. On page 226, Alterman/Green write: "As Allan Wood and Paul Thompson describe on their extremely informative (and well-documented) Web site "An Interesting Day," many questions persist about George W. Bush's behavior on September 11, 2001." The next three pages outline some of the information from the article. Alterman also writes the blog "Altercation" for MSNBC. ... This testy exchange between WH press secretary Scott McClellan and the press is highly entertaining. ... A kickass Q&A with Paul Waldman.

Francona Speaks. SoSHer Stu Nahan has some notes on Terry Francona's interview on WFAN yesterday. Among them: On On Foulke's usage: The bullpen is deep and it can help "shorten the game". Foulke can/will be used for more than 1 inning. ... On ownership: Theo and [Bill] James have the "ability to make me think about the game" and I "appreciate that". "We're in this together" and "we want to work together". ... On Boston: "I'm excited" and I know that there will be "37,000 assistant managers every night". Loves the passion of Boston and "understands people second guessing every move". When he makes moves, he has to "have a reason for doing it". If he doesn't, then he expects/deserves to get slammed.

Jackie MacMullan has a lengthy feature about Francona and how he "cheated death four times during a medical odyssey that included multiple knee surgeries, blood clots, staph infections, massive internal bleeding, and a near amputation of his leg. ... 'I'm probably lucky to be alive,' said Francona, in his first extensive comments regarding his ordeal. 'And I know I'm lucky to have all my limbs.'"

Derek Lowe talks to Gordon Edes in Fort Myers about his future with the Red Sox. Lowe believes that with the signing of Curt Schilling, either he or Pedro Martinez isn't coming back in 2005. He also reports that will be much better prepared this spring than in 2003. Last spring, Lowe missed a month of conditioning just before spring training because of his skin cancer surgery. "Missing that whole month last year just killed me. I'm not using it as an excuse, but mentally I knew I wasn't ready, and I tried to catch up way too fast. ... My mechanics, everything was a disaster." Compared to 2002, Lowe gave up more walks (72 to 48), hits (216 to 166), and home runs (17 to 12), and his ERA ballooned from 2.58 to 4.47. His record was 17-7 because he received the best run support in the AL. ... This year, Lowe has added 15 pounds (up to 240) and been working out regularly and has already put in two months of long-tossing and six bullpen sessions.

Hitting coach Ron Jackson on the black players that inspired him (Satchel Paige, Josh Gibson, Jackie Robinson, Larry Doby, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Frank Robinson). ... John Burkett turned down the Yankees' NRI offer and has officially retired. ... Bartow Littell, 97, recalls fishing with Babe Ruth in the early 1920s in Florida.

Dentist Likes Russert's Toothless Style. The Daily Howler comments on the Russert/Bush love-in last Sunday: "Bush boasted about his cooperation with the 9/11 commission -— a commission which has routinely complained about the president's lack of cooperation. But Russert ignored this odd statement too. What would Bush have said if challenged? The public will never find out. ... The bulldog had left his teeth in a jar." Russert was apparently quite pleased with his performance, however. He told the Buffalo News that the day after the interview he went to the dentist and "the dentist, the receptionist and the hygienist started clapping, it was really sweet." ... Check out the many news links at Daniel Froomkin's White House Briefing, including this one from the Memphis Flyer: "Two members of the Air National Guard unit that President George W. Bush allegedly served with as a young Guard flyer in 1972 had been told to expect him and were on the lookout for him. He never showed, however; of that both Bob Mintz and Paul Bishop are certain."

Theo Epstein Talks To Baseball Prospectus. Here is Part I; Part II is part of BP's subscription.

BP: Your father, on the "Cowboy Up" year-end DVD ... said that you are self-described as "risk-averse." What's that mean? It surprises me.

Epstein: Well, risk is a funny thing. We talk about it a lot at the Red Sox. You could say our approach is a bit of a paradox, because at the same time we are risk takers and risk-averse. I think we're risk takers in the sense that we'll try anything within reason, within moral boundaries, to get a competitive advantage. So if someone has an idea--no matter how crazy, no matter how off-the-wall, no matter how illogical it seems--as long as we don't have to expend a tremendous amount of resources to try it, we'll try it. ... Where we're risk-averse is in situations where there are a lot of resources involved. And when I say resources, I really mean a percentage of our payroll. By design, we're risk averse with our payroll. We feel that we have tremendous resources, and the quickest thing that we can do to sacrifice that competitive advantage is to take an ill-advised risk with our payroll and have it backfire on us, eliminating that edge. So we are risk averse, because we want to make every single unit of resource count for us; every single dollar on the payroll really counts for us and translates into wins. So I think it is accurate to say that we're risk-averse and risk takers at the same time."

Some have wondered if Epstein's comment -- "to take an ill-advised risk with our payroll and have it backfire on us" -- has any relevance to a possible contract extension for Pedro Martinez. ... Sarah at RallyCuff notes a Pedro interview (in Santo Domingo's Listín Diario) and attempts a translation. ... Keith Woolner always told people that the Red Sox lost the first game he saw at Fenway. Turns out he was wrong. I, however, can say with certainty that Boston lost the first game I saw at Fenway.

Jim Cassandro at Baseball Primer: "In the following piece I will argue that in baseball these measures [Avg, OBP, SLG, ERA, K:BB, etc.] are inappropriately applied and statistically flawed, and I will introduce rather simple residualized measures that are more valid, flexible, and statistically meaningful alternatives. Residualized measures have already been adopted successfully in other research fields where ratio statistics have been misapplied (e.g., social and behavioral sciences). Perhaps this introduction will help residuals find their place on the landscape of baseball research as well."

A Squadron Of Postal Handlers. Bush left his Texas Air National Guard assignment and moved to Alabama, even though the Air Force had denied his transfer request, adding that Bush was "ineligible" to move to the unit he wanted: a squadron of postal handlers. ... Also, Bush's August 1972 suspension from flight status (triggered by his failure to take a required annual physical) should have prompted an investigation. ... Several members of the Alabama Air National Guard said they don't remember ever seeing Bush at their Montgomery base.

More on the removal of potentially embarrassing details from Bush's military records, including "mentions in the records of arrests." ... Blogger Calpundit spoke to Bill Burkett (transcription here). ... The Baseball Crank says the "monomaniacal" Calpundit has "gone off the rails" on this story and asks 14 Questions. ... Bush said last Sunday he would open his entire military file to the press, but the White House is now backing away from that promise, although it did release some dental records. ... Is Colin Powell starting to crack?

Finally, the 9/11 Commission will ask Bush, Dick Cheney, Bill Clinton and Al Gore to testify in public about possible warnings they might have received from US intelligence sources before the terrorist attacks. Chairman Thomas Kean: "We need them to testify." ... Since Condoleeza Rice was able to dictate the circumstances of her questioning last Saturday -- not under oath and in secret session that will not bemade public -- and Bush told Tim Russert that "I don't testify," I fully expect Kean to backpedal very soon and say there is no need for the current administration to say anything to anyone. (The White House has made no comment about a Bush appearance.)

Everyone Loves A Contest!



Win three* signed copies of my book on the 1918 Red Sox by correctly predicting how many regular season games Boston will win in 2004. In case of a tie, guess Pedro's ERA and (in case of a further tie) Manny's slugging percentage. You have until April 3 to enter. On April 4 (Opening Day), I will post all the entries. ... Send your name and three predictions to: joyofsox@hotmail.com.

* -- For the curious: There were problems printing the original orange cover (which I hated), so it was changed to the red one (which I designed); then last summer, Barnes & Noble chose the book for a big promotional campaign and both the cover and title were revised. The actual content has remained unchanged, except for the correction of two factual errors in the original. (Oh, the books are all the same size!)

A Q&A with Terry Francona.

"MLB.com: Ramiro Mendoza is a guy we've hardly heard anything about all winter. He became a forgotten man last year because of injuries and ineffectiveness. What have you heard about Ramiro this winter and how does he fit in?

"Francona: I've talked to [assistant trainer] Chris Correnti, who has been monitoring Ramiro in Fort Myers, and Chris said he's doing outstanding. ... We'll give him every opportunity to bounce back and hopefully he'll be the pitcher he was. When he's throwing good, he can pitch the ninth one day and the first the next. ...

"MLB.com: You hear a lot about how Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling can rub off on each other and sort of fire each other up. Is that something you just hear about in the media, or do two highly competitive pitchers like that have a way of driving each other?

"Francona: I don't doubt that for one minute. Randy Johnson and Schilling were great for each other. They were trying to one-up the other guy. If that's the case, great. Let them push each other. Derek Lowe can jump right into that mix to and he can push them too. So can Tim Wakefield. ... The best thing about this now is that Derek Lowe pitching third in our rotation means that he'll be getting matched up a lot of times with the other team's third starter. That makes us better right there. ...

"MLB.com: Managing the Red Sox is probably the most scrutinized job in the city of Boston or the entire region of New England. You did manage in a tough market in Philly, but how do you prepare for the non-stop scrutiny that will come in the baseball hotbed that is Boston?

"Francona: I guess the best way I can do that is to prepare to do my job right. If I do that, which I will, I just have to be smart enough to know that this job comes with a ton of scrutiny. I have to do my job, and when I do it, have a reason for it. Explain the reasoning. ... Understand that people are passionate and they'll have opinions. That's the beauty of the game. I've been in winter ball when people throw bottles at you. I've had good training for this job being in Philly. I don't think it will compare, but it's a good training ground. ..."

Opening Day Countdown ... Top of the 9th looks at the Bullpen/Closer debate. ... Alex Ciepley on the expectations of baseball's first openly gay ballplayer. ... The Baseball Crank posts his "AL East Established Win Shares Level Report." ... Weapons of Mass Production: Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and Ted Williams.

Bush to 9/11 Commission: Play Dead. The Whitewash continues. The "independent" 9/11 Commission yesterday rolled over like a puppy (again) and allowed the White House to rub its belly. The Commission backed off its threat to subpoena the President's CIA-prepared Daily Briefs, deciding that a 17-page summary, as prepared by the White House, would suffice. This tidbit came on the same day that Commission chairman Thomas Kean said there was no evidence suggesting Bush and/or senior White House aides fumbled intelligence warnings of the terrorist strikes. Kean: "There were no smoking guns, nothing that would make you sit up and say, 'Wow.'" ... Alright, if there are no smoking guns, then why can't the White House release all of the requested information? And I may be just a schlub looking at mainstream news, but I could list dozens and dozens and dozens of items that have made me sit up and say Wow! [Like this] Maybe I should send some of my printouts to Mr. Kean?

California Democrat Henry Waxman is calling on Attorney General John Ashcroft to reveal who cleared members of Osama bin Laden's family and other Saudi citizens to leave the country immediately following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Rut-row: "Retired National Guard Lt. Col. Bill Burkett said Tuesday that in 1997, then-Gov. Bush's chief of staff, Joe Allbaugh, told the National Guard chief to get the Bush file and make certain 'there's not anything there that will embarrass the governor.' Col. Burkett said that a few days later at Camp Mabry in Austin, he saw Mr. Bush's file and documents from it discarded in a trash can. He said he recognized the documents as retirement point summaries and pay forms." ... "Those who encountered Bush in Alabama remember him as an affable social drinker who acted younger than his 26 years. ... he also tended to show up late every day ... prop his cowboy boots on a desk and brag about how much he drank the night before. They also remember Bush's stories about how the New Haven, Connecticut police always let him go, after he told them his name, when they stopped him 'all the time' for driving drunk as a student at Yale in the late 1960s." ... [Excellent wrapup of media coverage]

Finally, some words from Colin Powell, from his autobiography "My American Journey": "I am angry that so many sons of the powerful and well placed and many professional athletes managed to wangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units. Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to our country."

Predictions, Part 1. "Boston/Yankees" means "Boston defeats Yankees" and * = wild card.

The Sporting News

              Ken Rosenthal   Stan McNeal    Tom Gatto
              Senior Writer   Managing Ed.   Senior Ed.

AL East       Boston          New York       New York
AL Central    Minnesota       Minnesota      Kansas City
AL West       Anaheim         Anaheim        Seattle
AL Wild Card  New York        Boston         Boston


NL East       Philadelphia    Philadelphia   Philadelphia
NL Central    Chicago         Chicago        Chicago
NL West       San Francisco   Arizona        San Francisco
NL Wild Card  Houston         Florida        Houston


AL MVP        Rodriguez       Rodriguez      Rodriguez
AL Cy Young   Mussina         Schilling      Brown
AL Rookie     Mauer (Min)     Crosby (Oak)   Rios (Tor)
AL Manager    Scioscia        Francona       Melvin


NL MVP        Bonds           Bonds          Thome
NL Cy Young   Prior           Prior          Prior
NL Rookie     LaRoche (Atl)   Matsui (NYM)   Matsui (NYM)
NL Manager    Bochy           Baker          Alou


ALCS          Boston/Anaheim  Boston/Yankees Boston/Yankees
NLCS          Phillies/Cubs   Cubs/Phillies  Phillies/Cubs
World Series  Boston/Phillies Boston/Cubs    Phillies/Boston

The Sporting News

              Chris Bahr     Tricia Garner
              Associate Ed.  Associate Ed.

AL East       New York       Boston
AL Central    Kansas City    Chicago
AL West       Oakland        Oakland
AL Wild Card  Boston         New York


NL East       Atlanta        Philadelphia
NL Central    Chicago        Chicago
NL West       Arizona        San Francisco
NL Wild Card  Houston        Atlanta


AL MVP        Garciaparra    Garciaparra
AL Cy Young   Mulder         Martinez
AL Rookie     Mauer          Mauer
AL Manager    Francona       Francona


NL MVP        Sosa           Thome
NL Cy Young   Schmidt        Prior
NL Rookie     Matsui (NYM)   Matsui (NYM)
NL Manager    Williams       Alou


ALCS          Boston/Yankees Boston/Yankees
NLCS          Cubs/Astros    Cubs/Phillies
World Series  Cubs/Boston    Boston/Cubs

Street & Smith's

AL East    AL Central   AL West   NL East   NL Central  NL West
Boston     Kansas City  Seattle   Phillies  Chicago     Los Angeles
New York*  Minnesota    Anaheim   Atlanta*  St. Louis   Arizona
Toronto    Chicago      Oakland   Florida   Houston     SF Giants
Baltimore  Cleveland    Texas     New York  Cincinnati  Colorado
Tampa Bay  Detroit                Montreal  Pittsburgh  San Diego
                                            Milwaukee
MVPs: Manny Ramirez/Albert Pujols
Cy Youngs: Curt Schilling/Mark Prior 
World Series: Boston over Cubs

Lindy's Scouting Report

AL East    AL Central   AL West   NL East   NL Central  NL West
New York   Minnesota    Anaheim   Phillies  Chicago     SF Giants
Boston*    Kansas City  Oakland   Florida   Houston*    San Diego
Toronto    Chicago      Seattle   Atlanta   St. Louis   Arizona
Baltimore  Cleveland    Texas     New York  Pittsburgh  Los Angeles
Tampa Bay  Detroit                Montreal  Cincinnati  Colorado
                                            Milwaukee

MVPs: Garret Anderson/Lance Berkman
Cy Youngs: Mark Mulder/Mark Prior
Rookies of Year: Joe Mauer (Min)/Kazuo Matsui (NYM)
Rookie Pitchers: Matt Riley (Bal)/Edwin Jackson (LA)
Managers of Year: Ron Gardenhire/Felipe Alou
World Series: Cubs over Boston

High Hopes. Pitchers and catchers begin reporting to Fort Myers February 20; the full squad is due four days later. Terry Francona will greet a squad of only 52 players, since Theo Epstein feels there are few jobs to be won on the 25-man roster. ... There's optimistic and then there's optimistic. I'm looking forward to this season as I have never looked forward to a season before, but I'm still not seeing things as rose-colored as MLB's Tom Singer. In his rundown of the AL East, he offers these final standings:

Boston Red Sox       105  57  --
New York Yankees      92  70  13
Toronto Blue Jays     91  71  14
Tampa Bay Devil Rays  78  84  27
Baltimore Orioles     74  88  31

That's real pretty to look at, but there is no way the balance of the East has swung 19 games in the Red Sox's direction. I can't see the division being won by any more than it was last year. I'll take Boston, but by no more than 5 or 6 games. ... I picked up a mess of pre-season magazines (a Penn Station newsstand had the Boston regional covers!), so I'll be posting those soon.

More on AWOL. Which will we find first: WMDs or George Bush's National Guard records? Bush said during his Meet The Press interview (which was so bad, even writers for the National Review were shaking their heads) both that the relevant records did not exist and that he would provide those same records. ... CalPundit has done some exceptional research and analysis (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) and TPM offers some comments (1 and 2), adding: "Late word from the White House is that they're releasing some pay stubs which will verify the president's attendance at Guard duty in Alabama. ... As nearly as I can tell the president is still refusing to waive his Privacy Act rights and allow the government to release all his military service records to the press, without having them filtered through the White House." Also check out Time. ... Also, why can't the White House produce one -- just one -- person who will say he saw Bush in Alabama?

For the most part, I agree with Atrios on the relevancy of said records: "I don't care who did or didn't go fight in Vietnam. ... I look forward to the day when our presidential candidates are no longer from the Vietnam generation so we can be done with the whole thing. But, there are two reasons that Bush's military record are at issue. ... The primary reason is that Bush has made his military service an issue. If in 1999 Bush had gotten up and said "You know what? I was grounded because I refused to take a required physical. Then, I transferred to Alabama and didn't show up much. I'm not proud of it, and eventually I managed to get an honorable discharge, but it wasn't a shining moment in my life," then I'd be fine with the whole thing. ... But, he didn't. He claimed to have flown for several years in Texas after his training. A lie. He used his Guard service to claim he learned important life lessons - from his autobiography: "I can remember walking up to my F-102 fighter and seeing the mechanics there. I was on the same team as them, and I relied on them to make sure that I wasn't jumping out of an airplane. There was a sense of shared responsibility in that case. The responsibility to get the airplane down. The responsibility to show up and do your job." He then used his military service to justify the whole Flightsuit Boy Goes to the Aircraft Carrier Day, as his administration did their best to imply that he not only flew the plane but personally landed it (no, they never said so, but they were coy enough to encourage speculation and confusion). So, he made an issue of it - and, the issue is honesty. Simple."

Bush has granted the 9/11 Commission another 60 days (until late July) to finish its work (some victims family members would like it extended into 2005, but the Commission has said 60 days would be enough). However, the White House is still imposing "maddening" restrictions on important documents and the Commission may be forced to subpeona the necessary papers.

Dateline Ft. Myers. Mike F has filed his first spring training report from Florida (2003 reports here): "Not much going on that is available to the general public. The Fantasy Camp is utilizing the Edison Complex and other than the occasional word with one of the instructors it's not that interesting for the Nation. There are an increasing number of minor leaguers and probably some NRI hopefuls. Thought I recognized Andy Dominique across half the field but none of the others. ... Best I can do for openers is to relate bits from an interesting interview between DLowe and a local sports talk show guy.

"Derek feels that there is a feeling of urgency this year among the players there being 20 of the expected members without contracts for 2005. He emphasized (my choice based on voice sound not DL's reiteration) urgency not pressure as he feels this "last chance" to win it together. ... After being introduced as the best buy for the buck on the Sox this year, Derek said that when he signed the contract he well knew that if he performed well he might well be underpaid on the back half. ... Asked whether Pedro or Curt would be the #1, he deftly ducked the issue essentially saying: It might be more important to Pedro than Curt, but having two #1 starters was a good thing, not a contentious issue. ..."

Chris Dial: "What effect will the change in defense have on Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte?" ... Paul DePodesta: "The Genesis, Implementation, and Management of New Systems." ... According to Lee Sinins, here's some evidence that the Angels' bullpen could be very scary. I also notice that there is only one starter on this list:

Best ERA vs. the league average, among pitchers with 100+ career IP

                         DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE
1    Brendan Donnelly    2.69     1.82     4.50
2    Mariano Rivera      2.22     2.49     4.72
3    Scot Shields        1.96     2.55     4.51
4    Pedro Martinez      1.87     2.58     4.46
5    Billy Wagner        1.77     2.53     4.31
6    Troy Percival       1.70     3.00     4.70
7    Rafael Soriano      1.54     2.96     4.50
8    Damaso Marte        1.52     2.97     4.49
9    Bryan Harvey        1.51     2.49     4.00
10   Trevor Hoffman      1.50     2.78     4.28

Gordon Edes: Schilling "thought Fenway Park was too much of a home run park for him to feel comfortable in -- until the Sox showed him that the numbers proved otherwise. In "The 2004 Bill James Handbook," Fenway Park ranked just 10th in the AL in ballpark index ratings for home runs ... For lefthanded hitters, the ballpark index ratings for home runs has Fenway Park last in the league. ... That apparently convinced Schilling, who ranks ninth on the list of home runs allowed by active pitchers (263, 67 fewer than leader David Wells), that the Fens would be more hospitable than he thought."

Tony Massarotti on the future of Nomar Garciaparra: "The Red Sox are saying little. Garciaparra's camp is saying less. And all things considered, one must assume that to be a relatively good thing. ... [Nomar's agent Art] Tellem and Sox part-owner and chairman Tom Werner have an excellent relationship ... Yet indications last month were that Epstein and Sox president Larry Lucchino were the point men in discussions with Tellem ..."

Mazz also answers some mail: "I don't believe you liars for a second. The only time (Manny Ramirez) said anything about going (to New York) was when he told Joe Morgan that he knows he has five more years here, but after that he wonders what it would be like to play in his hometown. ... I happened to run into (agent Jeff Moorad) this winter and all he said was, 'Don't believe everything you read.'" ... Mazz replies: "Dear John, Don't believe everything you hear from an agent. (Trust me on this one.)" ... Fine, Tony, but what about addressing the substance of the email, which was Manny's quote?

Some quotes from a lengthy feature in the New York Times entitled "Red Sox Picturing the Parade":

John Henry: "We haven't won a championship in 86 years. Given that we have undoubtedly the most ardent fans in baseball, this is our mandate. ... It's an epic saga that plays out over every single day, 365 days a year, in Boston."

Theo Epstein: After the ALCS, "we instituted a 24-hour rule. For 24 hours, we allowed ourselves to moan and feel sorry for ourselves and yell, 'Five more outs!' and things of that nature. And we stopped after 24 hours. ... I think it became a 36-hour rule, actually. ... We consciously used the frustration over the outcome of that game to really motivate us to have a good off-season."

Henry: "There will be the longest celebration in the history of baseball over a Red Sox world championship. That is one thing we can be sure of."

8 Simple Questions For Giving Bush A Nervous Breakdown. What Tim Russert won't ask Bush on MTP (which is not being show live, as usual; it is being taped today so Bush can be given as many chances as he needs to answer Timmy's softballs "correctly"). So there is no chance of hearing Bush "fill the air" with F-bombs. ... Joshua Micah Marshall's Talking Points Memo on the Plame-related indictments and the Iraq Commission. (See also.) ... Indepth examinations of George aWol Bush: 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Three Articles. The Lie Factory: Lt. Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski, 43, "a now-retired Air Force officer who served in the Pentagon's Near East and South Asia (NESA) unit in the year before the invasion of Iraq, observed how the Pentagon's Iraq war-planning unit manufactured scare stories about Iraq's weapons and ties to terrorists. ... It was by turning such bogus intelligence into talking points for U.S. officials ... that the administration pushed American public opinion into supporting an unnecessary war."

Paul Krugman reviews books from Kevin Phillips and Ron Suskind: "It's a lot easier to document links between the bin Laden family and the Bushes than it is to document links between the bin Ladens and Saddam Hussein."

Daniel Hopsicker: "A software company called Ptech, founded by a Saudi financier placed on America's Terrorist List in October 2001, had access to the FAA's entire computer system for two years before the 9/11 attack."

Nixon: Three More Years! Trot Nixon has signed a three-year contract worth $19.5 million. It replaces the one-year, $6.6 million deal he signed January 20.

The Sons of Sam Horn presented the Jimmy Fund with a check for $23,600, raised through contributions as a tribute to the 2003 team. ... Gordon Edes chats with Curt Schilling. ... Prosecutors have videotape that may include part of the ALCS fight in the Yankee bullpen at Fenway Park. ... Scuffling in Red Sox Blogland. ... Ellis Burks on coming back to Boston.

Howard Bryant: "[I] first met [Burks] 1995, when he was with Colorado ... Boston had hurt him, mostly because as a kid outfielder, he was thrust into volatility that was special to Boston. He never became the next Big Thing, as was projected. Race had weighed heavily on everyone in the Sox clubhouse during those years. ... He was not an attention-seeking player, and throughout the years when we spoke formally in conversations that would appear in my book, "Shut Out: A Story of Race and Baseball in Boston," as well as informally, his desire to discuss his experiences in Boston were not borne out of the need to vent. Ellis Burks simply remembered hard times as he saw them. ...

"The Boston that Burks returns to now, I reported to him yesterday, is one of softening edges and better everyday living. ... He may not see more black faces at Fenway, but he won't feel the hostility he felt back in the 1980s, either. ... 'I could have gone to Seattle, but the Red Sox were so close. I'm only an hour plane ride away from my family, and the team is stacked with Schilling and Foulke. Wouldn't that be something, Ellis Burks coming back to Boston on a World Series team?'"

Also: Two changes to the spring training schedule: Boston will play Baltimore (not Florida) on March 14; March 15's game against Cleveland has been moved to March 18.

The Colossus Turns 109! My computer was wigging out yesterday, so this comes one day late: Happy Birthday!

Burks Is Back. Ellis Burks, 39, has signed a one-year deal to return to the Red Sox. Last season, Burks had surgery on his right elbow, but Jim Turner, his agent, says he is fine now. "He had bone chips that were compressing on the nerve in the elbow. ... [H]e saw the surgeon in Cleveland, and the doctors will tell you he is at full strength. He's hitting and has full flexibility. The elbow is not an issue in his mind [and] he expects an exceptional performance."

In 2003, Burks batted .322/.444/.576 (1.020 OPS) against left-handers. Of course, that was in only 59 AB, but his OPS against RHP was a dismal .674 and his numbers in 2002 tell a similar story. Looking at Burks's 2001-03 splits:

          AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
v LHP    305  .292  .384  .564  .948
v RHP    850  .285  .357  .505  .862

and looking at David Ortiz's .216/.260/.414 against LHP last year and his 3-year splits:

          AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
v LHP    320  .213  .265  .413  .678
v RHP    843  .289  .376  .573  .949

I think Francona should have a nifty little platoon arrangement. ... Speaking of Ortizzle, he says he'd like to play more first base and had some Pedro news: "The other night, we got together. It was one of our friend's birthdays. Tonight I'm going to go by his house. But one thing he told me the other day was that he's throwing hard. I was like, 'That's not really news'. He throws hard whenever he wants to. But he was really happy when he told me. He's in pretty good shape. He's happy, so everything looks good."

The AL Beast. Peter Gammons looks at the AL East: "Barring some breakdown and given the encouraging throwing sessions by Steve Karsay, New York goes into camp with all 11 pitching spots in place, while Boston is looking for a possible second left-handed reliever. New York has to solve the third-base situation, decide how the Bernie Williams/Kenny Lofton combination is going to work and do some minor tinkering with the bench. Boston, presuming Ellis Burks signs, may not have one positional decision for Terry Francona, from Jason Varitek catching all the way to Mark Bellhorn and Tony Womack. ... On paper, [Boston] is a much-improved team because of the pitching. Curt Schilling, Martinez, Lowe and Tim Wakefield comprise one of the most reliable rotations anywhere. And after going through a year of Chad Fox and Rudy Seanez and 10 different pitchers getting saves, they now are 1-through-10 in place, with Keith Foulke set up by Williamson, Embree, Mike Timlin and Bronson Arroyo."

Dr. Strangelove. Watching the movie last night, something sounded familiar.

Gen. Buck Turgeson: "Mr. President, I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed. I do say, no more than ten to twenty million killed, tops! Depending on the breaks."

Ann Coulter: "The Democratic logic on national defense is: As soon as anyone in the military gets his hair mussed, we must pull out and bring 'international peace-keeping' forces in...."

The Army may have been plagued by a "morass" of supply shortages, ineffective radios and virtually no reliable intelligence on how Baghdad would be defended, but I hope they all had combs. ... Lots of Bush/AWOL coverage/links (and here and here and here); the White House has its propaganda machine in high gear. ... Thanks to Wonkette, we now know the real reason Cheney and Scalia went duck-hunting.

Duck Tape! Big primary day for the Democrats, Bush's approval numbers in the sh*tter and these two online polls:

CNN: "Do you believe a commission assembled by President Bush to review
prewar intelligence on Iraq can be truly independent?"

Yes:   407   3%
No:  11525  97%

MSNBC: "Did the White House knowingly misrepresent intelligence on Iraq?"

No. The administration was misled, too.               18%
Yes. Bush and Cheney knew the intelligence was wrong. 76%  
I don't know.                                          6%
(24943 responses)

And what do we get? Anthrax and ricin. Can these people get any more predictable?

The Anti-Gump. When he gets to Ft. Myers later this month, Terry Francona will be prepared. "By the middle of January, he and bench coach Brad Mills had mapped out every day of spring training to the point where Francona knows which batch of hitters he is throwing batting practice to on the first day of camp. This offseason, Francona has been spending time in the Red Sox front offices, getting to know staff, poring over written analyses of Red Sox players, and trying to contact all the members of the 40-man roster and many minor-leaguers as well. ... There are not many key roster spots to be won this spring training, outside of some utility player jobs. ... Francona seems particularly excited about the upside of pitchers Ramiro Mendoza and Bronson Arroyo."

Aaron Gleeman: "Doug Krikorian, in a column about the Los Angeles Dodgers in last Thursday's Long Beach Press-Telegram: 'The other person being mentioned as [LA GM Dan] Evans' possible successor, Oakland's Billy Beane, has done a terrific job with modest funds with the A's, but he's also a shameless self-promoter who wrote a book about his imagined genius and is despised by scouts around baseball.' ... This is absolutely mind-boggling to me. [Michael Lewis is the actual author.] ... [I]t is apparent Krikorian didn't bother to actually read Moneyball. I suppose that is fine, although I think a California sports writer might have thought about picking up a book about the Oakland A's. However, if you haven't read the book and you don't even know who wrote the damn thing, at least don't make a complete mockery of yourself and your column by commenting on it."

Many Red Sox fans also like the Patriots (among them Ed, Sarah and PSF), but for me (and maybe Big K), the only thing the Super Bowl means is that spring training is very, very close.

Breasts of Mass Destruction-Related Halftime Activities. Latest National Crisis: Janet Jackson's right breast was exposed! Fearless Leader had already passed out, er, gone to bed, but the FCC has launched an investigation. Wow, that's fast; why did it take 14 months for an independent investigation of 9/11? ... Dan Froomkin of the Washington Post looks at the Bush/AWOL charges and will offer more links tomorrow. ... Paul Wolfowitz: More dead Americans = Success in Iraq. ... TPM on the WMD/Intel investigation: here and here. New York Times: "By using an executive order to establish the commission, Mr. Bush will retain greater control over its membership and mission ... [Bush] sidestepped a reporter's question today about whether Americans were owed an explanation before the Nov. 2 elections." ... Question: "Should an advisor to the Pentagon be pocketing a fee for helping to raise money for a terrorist organization?" ... Finally, beware of lollipops that cost $10!

Subliminable.