Predictions And Projections VIII

Baseball Prospectus

In case Murray Chass swings by, here is BP's PECOTA-projected standings for the AL East:

             W   L   RS   RA   AVG   OBP   SLG
Red Sox     93  69  892  762  .280  .361  .464
Yankees     93  69  897  771  .280  .362  .454
Blue Jays   80  82  813  831  .271  .342  .449
Devil Rays  78  84  806  834  .275  .338  .446
Orioles     74  88  754  823  .274  .333  .423

Very close!

BP's Joe Sheehan runs down his top ten teams. The Red Sox are #6 -- there are four AL teams above them. BP staff picks are here. A quick wrap-up of the 13 ballots:

AL East: Yankees 7, Red Sox 6
Wild Card: Red Sox 4, Yankees 4
MVP: Sizemore 6, Hafner 3, Slappy 1, Manny 1, Guerrero 1, Crawford 1
CY: Santana 9, Sabathia 1, Lackey 1, Millwood 1, Verlander 1
Rookie: Matsuzaka 10, Alex Gordon 3

Matsuzaka Predictions (ranked by ERA):

 W   L  ERA    K
19   7  2.92  211
17   6  3.12  215
19  11  3.20  195
17   8  3.28  195
16   9  3.36  175
18   5  3.41  215
13   8  3.57  190
16   6  3.79  212
21   8  3.80  180
15   9  3.80  190
16  10  3.75  185
17  12  4.22  179
18   7  4.35  180

BP will offer its NL and World Series picks tomorrow.

The Hardball Times

Last year, the THT consensus picked 3 of the 6 division winners, 1 of 2 pennant winners and correctly guessed the AL Cy Young, AL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP.

15 ballots for the AL East:

1st: Yankees 9, Red Sox 6
2nd: Red Sox 8, Yankees 4, Blue Jays 3
3rd: Blue Jays 11, Yankees 2, Red Sox 1, Orioles 1

Wild Card: Red Sox 7, Yankees 3, Twins 3, Blue Jays 1, Whte Sox 1
AL Pennant: Red Sox 4, Yankees 4, Angels 3, Cleveland 2, Blue Jays 1, Twins 1
World Series: Red Sox 3, Yankees 3, Mets 3, Cleveland 2, Blue Jays 1, Diamondbacks 1, Twins 1, Angels 1

MVP: Slappy 5, Hafner 3, Sizemore 2, Guerrero 2, Ortiz 1, Cano 1, Mauer 1
Cy: Santana 12, Halladay 2, Matsuzaka 1
Rookie: Alex Gordon 9, Matsuzaka 6

THT's Five Questions for the Yankees (actually 5 and 5) and Red Sox.