August 21, 2009

Batting With Runners On - Bos/NY

After the second inning last night, there was this exchange in the game thread:
Jeff Polman said...
Hate to say it, but there's the difference between the Sox and the Twisted Swastikas (MFY). The Yankees would have scored at least five runs in that inning.

redsock said...
... the Yankees haven't scored 5 runs in 4 of their last 6 games.

Jeff Polman said...
I watch every game and it seems like Boston is frequently leaving people on and hitting into DPs.

Kevin said...
I think that has more to do with the fact that they get a ton of guys on base more than anything.

L-girl said...
There's no evidence that the Sox leave more men on base than any other team - except maybe the teams that don't get any men on base in the first place.

redsock said...
the game and pbp logs for many seasons are available. if someone wants to go check and see if historically, the mfy score more baserunners and have a smaller LOB % than the sox, be my guest. i'd honestly love to see some data.
A big thanks to James, who emailed me the following this morning:
I was looking over [last night's] gamethread today, and I noticed the mini-argument over the Yanks performance with runners on base vs. the Sox performance with runners on. It drives me as crazy as it does you, so I checked some baseball ref splits:

Splits with runners on
Yanks  .272/.360/.448  tOPS+  95
Bosox .267/.359/.442 tOPS+ 103
So we're hitting pretty much just as well as they are. More importantly, since they're a better hitting team than we are in general (although a lot of that's probably the park, they don't have good park translations for Yankee Stadium, yet), they're hitting 5% worse than they do in general, while we're hitting 3% better with runners on that we do in general.

Even more interesting:

Splits with runners in scoring position
Yanks  .259/.361/.412  tOPS+  88
Bosox .270/.377/.426 tOPS+ 104
We're hitting appreciably better than they are with runners in scoring position! They're 12% worse with RISP than in general, and we're 4% better.

Splits with bases loaded
Yanks:  .248/.287/.349  tOPS+  54 (!)
Bosox: .284/.331/.388 tOPS+ 82
So we've been no great shakes there, but they've been absolutely terrible.

RISP and 2 outs
Yanks:  .237/.364/.386  tOPS+  83
Bosox: .277/.392/.443 tOPS+ 112
Again, we're much, much better.

Late & Close
Yanks:  .316/.404/.555  tOPS+ 130
Bosox: .229/.313/.370 tOPS+ 73
So we're getting absolutely killed there. I'm not too worried about this, though; a quick look shows that we weren't good in this category in '04 or '07, either.
It's far from the final word in this discussion --- SSS, and all that -- but any information is better than relying solely on our memories. And as L mentioned, if we are watching all of the Red Sox games, then we are watching almost nothing of what the Yankees are doing.

23 comments:

andy said...

Well researched thank you. Means nothing however because both teams get a lot of runners on and in games between the two either the pitcher completely shuts down the other team or its a blowout on both sides with lots of offense. This series will be much more favorable for us because of the games going into it. The last series saw our bullpen come in ruined and get more ruined after game 2. Bottom line this series is just a catch up not lead changing opportunity. Patience.

tim said...

I don't mean to sound like Joe Morgan (a complete ignoramus) but it really does boil down to W-L. (Captain Obvious, thank you). This stuff is interesting to see how we compare to them, but the bottom line is that our tOPS+ with RISP, or whatever stat, means nothing if we lose and end up at home in October. This sounds like a completely idiotic jumble of words...how about I clarify:

I don't care how they do it, I don't care what the stats are, don't care about the tOPS+ numbers, ERA+ or any other stat, as long as they SWEEP THESE FUCKERS this weekend, and in September and forever and ever until the end of time, amen.

james said...

Fantastic work, guys - thanks James. I laughed out loud at Redsock's last comment - too true. I notice some tiny change in Pap's stance, or JD's swing, or FY's facial hair because we are literally staring at these guys in high def on a 52" tv for 162 nights of the year - and then someone says something about Erick Hinske hitting a homer for the Yankees and I'm like "Shit! Eric Hinske plays for the Yankees?"

James said...

It's confusing that there are two James's. Maybe I'll change my name.

redsock said...

high def on a 52" tv

I wish.

9casey said...

I actually think those stats say quite a bit.....mostly that close and late , they have won a lot of games in the 7th - 9th innings, where as we just havent't done that mich this year.........they have also outscored us by almost 50runs....but hitting is never the full story right now the 2 pitching staffs are pretty even , which ever one can stay more consistent will most likely come out on top.....a lot of people are poo-pooing this series, the yankees still have a tough go of it , with a trip to the west coast yet ......so it could still be very interesting.....

james said...

Perhaps I should have said 'for three or four innings of 162 nights a year", the rest being spent washing children, putting on PJ's, reading 'Goodnight Moon', etc, etc. A great night has everyone asleep in time to stretch out and watch the end of a game. Though Yankees games are so long that sometimes kids have wakened up again before the end!!!

redsock said...

I will have G121 up soon, so do not fret!

(At work, actually doing work at the moment)

james said...

James - you were commenting here first. If anyone changes it should be me. I'll change [if it's not technically beyond me!] either to Scottish James or MacLeodCartoons.

ScottishJames said...

How's that?

redsock said...

... and "eating our pudding", which us old farts do at night.

redsock said...

"eating our pudding" sounds like a "steaming spinach" type of pharse.

We're gonna make the MFY eat our pudding!!!

Amy said...

Thanks for the stats, James, whichever James you are!

ScottishJames said...

MLB stats expert James is asked to draw cartoons for the local paper. Cartoonist James is asked to analyze the Sox performance in bases-loaded, 2 outs, situations in the 1980's. Hilarity ensues!

L-girl said...

Great stuff, thank you! I don't agree with "means nothing however". Obviously it all comes down to who wins and who loses, yes, we know that. But if you gamethread on even a semi-regular basis, you know that fans complain bitterly about Red Sox LOB - and many fans believe the Red Sox strand more runners than other teams - way more. People call runners LOB a "Red Sox special" and similar names. And apparently some fans believe other teams don't strand runners! So it doesn't mean nothing - it means a lot to the people who are watching the games.

And yes, of course we must SWEEP THESE FUCKERS now and forever.

L-girl said...

It's confusing that there are two James's. Maybe I'll change my name.

I don't know if James # 1 saw my comment a while back, but your invite to JoS went to James # 2 by mistake! Luckily everyone was invited in a post anyway.

L-girl said...

I agree with 9Casey...............

9casey said...

L-girl said...
I agree with 9Casey...............





You mock , because you love......:)

L-girl said...

You mock , because you love......:)

But of course!




***
(Actually, I do it because you once said it makes you laugh. But perhaps I am over-doing it and it's ruining the joke.)

A Seawolves Fanatic said...

Hey, Redsock do you think the Red Sox organization would be willing to send my sports marketing class some free promotional materail of any sort? Preferbely, any posters, or something of that sort?

9casey said...

L-girl said...

(Actually, I do it because you once said it makes you laugh. But perhaps I am over-doing it and it's ruining the joke.)




Never...

redsock said...

ASF:
I haven't the slightest idea.
Call and ask: 617-226-6000.

A Seawolves Fanatic said...

Thanks