April 1, 2007

Predictions And Projections IX

Over at the Home of the Pie Chart (aka Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, which I see is moving tomorrow), SG has run 1,000 seasons in each of four projections -- Dan Szymborski's ZiPS, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA, Diamond Mind, and Sean Smith's CHONE.

However:
Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. ... Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match the actual playing time of the players involved. ... We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. ... These are the averages of 1000 seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean.
What we have here is wins and losses, runs for and against, the number of times the team won the division or wild card, and the highest and lowest win totals of any of the 1,000 seasons.
CHONE
W L RF RA DIV WC HiW LoW

NY 94.9 67.1 941 789 610 208 117 75
Bos 91.9 70.1 890 762 360 301 113 73
Tor 80.6 81.4 820 835 26 60 99 61
Bal 71.9 90.1 784 883 2 2 89 55
Tam 71.3 90.7 823 915 2 3 93 53

DMB
W L RF RA DIV WC HiW LoW

NY 97.4 64.6 934 760 744 130 118 78
Tor 89.1 72.9 848 780 167 246 107 63
Bos 86.5 75.5 909 832 86 173 105 66
Bal 74.9 87.1 794 856 3 14 96 54
Tam 69.3 92.7 812 930 0 0 93 49

PECOTA
W L RF RA DIV WC HiW LoW

NY 94.3 67.7 911 765 571 245 115 75
Bos 92.1 69.9 893 763 388 315 111 75
Tor 80.3 81.7 809 830 30 62 99 64
Tam 77.5 84.5 803 839 8 28 98 55
Bal 74.6 87.4 749 821 4 12 96 56

ZiPS
W L RF RA DIV WC HiW LoW

NY 92.1 69.9 920 806 611 112 116 70
Bos 86.8 75.2 866 786 220 177 105 67
Tor 83.8 78.2 778 765 134 98 107 66
Bal 78.7 83.3 789 823 35 24 99 58
Tam 67.6 94.4 758 879 1 3 87 47

Overall - 4000 seasons
W L RF RA DIV WC

NY 94.7 67.3 926 780 2536 695
Bos 89.3 72.7 889 786 1054 966
Tor 83.5 78.5 814 802 357 466
Bal 75.0 87.0 779 845 44 52
Tam 71.4 90.6 799 891 11 34
So there was a season in which the Devil Rays won 98 games -- and another in which the Red Sox went 66-96. I'd like to see the various player stats for that year. ... And what the hell is wrong with Diamond Mind? Its average -- 86-76 -- is pretty much a repeat of 2006. If that happens, I'll shut down this blog.

The Yankees made the playoffs 81% of the time, Boston 51%. After Jonathan Papelbon was moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen, SG re-ran 250 with each of the four projection systems, splitting what would have been Pap's starts between Julian Tavarez and Jon Lester.
        W    L    RF  RA  DIV%   WC% Playoff% 
As SP 89.3 72.7 889 786 26.4% 24.2% 50.5%
As CL 89.3 72.7 892 794 27.2% 23.2% 50.4%
Interesting. There was absolutely no difference in the regular season. SG notes: "The improvement at the end of the game is mitigated by the weakening of the rotation. It does make Boston a better short-series team though."

4 comments:

Sean said...

Uh, I wouldn't make that promise man. I'd put this team at around 87-88 wins, certainly not in the mid to high 90s that everyone else sees.

Dice-K will be lucky to get a 4.2 ERA, Schilling will probably be around 4.4, Beckett won't get lower than 4.9, Sexy Lips is Sexy Lips, and we have no center fielder or shortstop.

87 wins because of Papi, Manny and the Papelbot.

redsock said...

Uh, I wouldn't make that promise man.

It's an inside joke -- referring to a guy with a certain website with a canine name who was so sure that the Slappy-to-Boston trade was going to go through, he promised his site would go dark if it did not happen.

redsock said...

Dice-K will be lucky to get a 4.2 ERA, Schilling will probably be around 4.4, Beckett won't get lower than 4.9, Sexy Lips is Sexy Lips, and we have no center fielder or shortstop.

Jeez. I should turn over my Oscar pic to you. Didn't 2004 show you that nothing is beyond our reach? No matter how dark, we can do it.

Beckett's ERA will go down by more than 0.10.

Sean said...

All I'm saying is, while this is the time for hopeless optimism, the 2004 team was constructed with logic. Ever since Theo stopped being able to do his job (around July 2004), we haven't had a plan or a clue.

Obviously every bad thing that could happen won't happen this year, but I would feel far more confident if we had a GM who could fix matters. I'm afraid of having 2 40 year olds, a guy who has never pitched in the majors, and a horrible pitcher who can't keep the ball in the yard.

Papi, Manny and the Papelbot, thank god for them. I just have to hope that Ellsbury can take over center once Coco fails miserably yet again.