September 19, 2007

Odds

The future is unknowable -- 1986 and 2004 showed us that -- but if you could play the rest of this season one million times, chances are good you'll know what "should" happen.

Cool Standings
       W   L   PCT  DIV%   WC%  POFF%
0913 89 58 .605 95.4 4.6 99.9
0914 89 59 .601 91.3 8.7 99.9
0915 90 59 .604 97.1 2.9 99.9
0916 90 60 .600 93.5 6.5 99.9
0918 90 61 .596 87.4 12.6 99.9
0919 90 62 .592 77.2 22.8 99.9
Our chances of winning the East dropped 10% with last night's loss (thanks, Tito) and 16% in the last two days. (But, hey, our chances of winning the wild card more than tripled (cough). Still, we're as close to a lock for the playoffs as you can get without clinching.

From Baseball Prospectus:

General Post-Season Odds
          W   L   East   Card  P-Offs
Red Sox 90 62 89.77 10.21 99.98
Yankees 87 64 10.23 87.17 97.40
In this standard sim, in 1,000,000 seasons, the Red Sox made the playoffs 999,784 times.

PECOTA version:
          W   L   East   Card  P-Offs
Red Sox 90 62 89.52 10.46 99.98
Yankees 87 64 10.48 87.07 97.55
ELO version:
          W   L   East   Card  P-Offs
Red Sox 90 62 78.78 21.18 99.95
Yankees 87 64 21.23 77.73 98.96
In all of these cases, the Tigers have an approximate 3% chance of making the playoffs.

8 comments:

L-girl said...

The East numbers here make me queasy. I will endeavor to ignore them.

Tony said...

Don't worry, l-girl...if the Sox win today, it'll pop back up to like 84% or something, and that looks a *lot* better.

L-girl said...

Tony, I was about to ask that! :)

If the Sox win and the Yankees lose tonight, what does it go up to?

redsock said...

We shall see.

Amy said...

"If the Sox win and the Yankees lose tonight, what does it go up to?"

Or...on the other hand, if we accept reality, and the Sox lose (which they did) and the Yankees win (which they did), what are our odds of winning the division now?

What are the odds we will play better than .500 ball for the next nine games and win 95, Theo's articulated "goal" for the season?

L-girl said...

I woke up this morning thinking about odds.

At a certain moment in 1986, what were the odds the Mets would win the WS? Almost none.

At a certain moment in 2004, what were the odds the Red Sox would win the ALCS? Almost none.

Allan began this post with a statement about how anything can happen. I just want to underscore that.

Baseball is a funny game. By Sept 30, we could be 4 games up, and win the division with room to spare.

Right now the only thing that is lost is our comfortable lead.

redsock said...

Our East % is now 64.1.

L-girl said...

Our East % is now 64.1.

Still better than half.