December 4, 2010

Red Sox, Padres Agree On Gonzalez Trade

The San Diego Padres have agreed to trade Adrian Gonzalez to Boston Red Sox in return for four minor league prospects, including pitcher Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, and outfielder Reymond Fuentes.

Sox Prospects lists Kelly and Rizzo as the team's #1 and #3 prospects, respectively; Fuentes was #16, though Baseball America had him at #6.

There has to be some amount of regret in seeing these young guys leave, but you can't get a player of Gonzalez's talent by offering table scraps. None of the three named prospects would have made any significant impact on the Red Sox until 2013, at the earliest. As long as Gonzalez keeps doing what he has been doing, everything will be fine.

Theo Epstein has had his eye on Gonzalez for years, and this deal gives the Sox, who Gonzalez has expressed a desire to play for, an exclusive window (without the noise and distractions of free agency) to work out a contract. The deadline for those talks is being reported as 2 PM EST tomorrow. (Gonzalez will be paid $6.3 million in 2011.)

Here are Gonzo's spray charts from 2009 and 2010 overlayed on Fenway Park.

2009

2010
Example
Dave Magadan, Padres hitting coach in 2006, talking about AG in March 2010:
I noticed from the first day I threw batting practice to him, it didn't matter where you threw the ball, he found a way to get the barrel on it. ...

You see him swing the bat, it's poetry in motion, man. It's so fluid and easy, and he's got such good rhythm up there, the ball just jumps off his bat, especially the other way. ... His ball, when he hits it the other way, doesn't slice. It stays straight. He can hit those balls right down the line that, with a lot of lefties, kind of fade. His just stay straight.
SoSHer DeJesus Built My Hotrod:
[Petco] has led the MLB in lowest park factor for four of the seven years it has been open. It is the only stadium to show up more than once during that time. Petco Park is damn habitual recidivist when it comes to stealing runs.
Which means that Gonzalez will be a big bopper in Febway and Kelly should benefit greatly from a move to the NL.
Example
Anthony Rizzo was actually at Casey Kelly's house this morning -- they both live in Florida -- when he heard the news.
The Red Sox are such a great organization. Theo's smart and the whole staff's smart. I would have loved to have played for them. ... It's better to go over with one of your best friends to someplace where you don't know anyone.
Example
The early reactions of some Red Sox players:

Daniel Bard:
Was I involved? [No.] That's a great trade for us. That's really good to hear.
Tim Wakefield:
Obviously this has been in the works for a long time and it's finally some to fruition. It's a great addition to our club. Not only are we getting a quality player but we're also getting a quality guy.
Kevin Youkilis:
The way he hits at PETCO, he can hit at Fenway Park because he can use the wall to his advantage. It's going to be great to have him on the team. That'll be a huge acquisition for us if everything works out.
Dustin Pedroia:
I'm excited to play alongside him. It's going to be fun. ... We picked up a player who's one of the best hitters in the game, so everyone's excited. We've got an All-Star. He's outstanding. We're excited and I think everyone's pumped to get to spring training and start everything.

29 comments:

9casey said...

If I amreading the chart correctly for 2010 , he would not gain any HR's by moving to fenway, right

Mylegacy said...

As a Jay's fan it pains me to see you guys get this horse for so few ponies - 'specially when the Jay's could have offered a better package of Drabek, Gose, McDade and Jenkins. Unfortunately, AGon actually wanted to play for the Sox and the Padres really didn't have much of a choice. Looks like a good one - no, make that a great one, for the Red Sox Nation.

PSF - and other naughty words.

redsock said...

I think the orange dots -- not dongs in SD -- would be dongs in FP, no?

(I went to the site were these were generated, but there was not much there. Maybe only in season? Also, this blog post offers some caution that the data can be inaccurate.)

redsock said...

Sean McAdam has some background on the deal:

As recently as three weeks ago, general manager Theo Epstein doubted that the Padres would deal Gonzalez this winter, believing that the surgical procedure on the first baseman's right shoulder would postpone serious trade talk until teams could see for themselves that Gonzalez was fully healthy.

Epstein also believed that it was more likely that the Red Sox would sign Gonzalez as a free agent rather than involve themselves in any bidding war next July. The reason: the Sox far preferred to sign Gonzalez and lose only compensation draft picks.

The Sox were further emboldened by the knowledge that, this time out, they would not have to compete with the Yankees. With Teixeira signed for six more years, they would have neither a position nor the interest for Gonzalez.

But within the last 10 days, the landscape began to shift, and with it, Epstein's approach. As more and more teams begin approaching San Diego GM Jed Hoyer, Epstein sensed that the time was now.

In between jetting around the country to visit with prospective free agents Carl Crawford (Tuesday night in Houston) and Jayson Werth (Wednesday night in Chicago), talks intensified for Gonzalez.

After initially refusing to include pitching prospect Casey Kelly, the Sox came to the realization that a deal could not be made without him. The Padres, seeking an eventual replacement for Gonzalez at first base, also wanted Rizzo, and the athletic Reymond Fuentes, the last first-round pick by Jason McLeod, the former Red Sox scouting director, now Hoyer's assistant in San Diego.

****

Couldn't the MFY have considered AG for DH? (NYY's DHs had a .777 OPS in 2010.)

redsock said...

Cafardo, 8 PM:

A source familiar with the negotiations between the Red Sox and Adrian Gonzalez said there was still no contract agreement at this hour but that both sides were "trying."

The talks are ongoing this evening and will likely head into the night ...

The physical, which also included two MRI's to take a look at past injuries besides the shoulder surgery Gonzalez had after the season, were also examined. The fact that the sides are negotiating a deal indicates that the physical has passed.

***

L-girl said...

This is exciting!

redsock said...

Heyman tweets:

"red sox may be willing to do a-gone deal without extension and may actually prefer to just talk parameters now, then watch him in spring"

"some teams wanted to make sure a-gone's shoulder responds this spring before committing $160-plus mil. red sox may be 1 of those teams"

"so the trade may go thru without extension. dont forget, a-gon's shoulder is still in a sling, even if it checked fine."

***

Padres beat writer Dan Hayes seems to agree with Heyman:

"Was told earlier today that Gonzalez trade could "possibly" happen w/o extension. Seems to fit with what @SI_JonHeyman is reporting."

***

This seems like complete bullshit. Theo will give up 3 of his top 6 prospects but then wait until February to see if Gonzalez's shoulder is okay and maybe just go with a one-year rental?

***

SoSHer Buzzkill Pauley says doing this would be a luxury tax move:

"By not signing him to an extension until the season starts, the Sox can clear Ortiz' and Drew's $26.5MM off the AAV books before factoring the 6-7 years for AG at FMV. Meanwhile, the Sox assume a mere $6.3MM for AG's 2011.

There's no way he doesn't sign an extension. The Sox are simply using his shoulder surgery as an excuse to play the game to improve other aspects of the team as well. In Philly Sox Fan's thread, he estimates $30MM of space available -- meaning if AG signs now, they can't get Werth or Crawford and stay under the tax threshold.

By waiting until April 5 or whenever they decide "he's good to go" they can do just that, and sign several quality relief pitchers, too.

***

redsock said...

Buzzkill links to a Yardbarker story from early 2010 about Beckett:

"The Red Sox timed Josh Beckett's contract extension to save money: By announcing the deal after the season started, Beckett's new salary isn't included in luxury tax calculations until next year. If the Red Sox announced it before the opener, it would have raised his average annual pay and been included in the calculations for this year, potentially increasing the team's luxury tax. The Red Sox are always on top of things. ..."

***

redsock said...

Here is another overlay of 2010 Petco on Fenway. AG will clearly be helped by the Wall, as long as he hits the ball high enough!

SoSock said...

Pretty stoked about this. Saw it cross on the bottom line last night and let an audible yelp!
The only downside is that I REALLY like Beltre and this of course means he is gone. But alas, such is the game.
Now if there were only a catcher out there........

redsock said...

Joe McDonald: "No matter who you talk to about Adrian Gonzalez, the common theme among players, teammates, coaches and scouts in the majors is that the soon-to-be newest member of the Boston Red Sox is going to rake in the American League."

redsock said...

McAdam: "Source on Gonzalez contract talks: "They went through most of the night. There's a good feeling." Still, no deal in place yet."

Dan Hayes says this deal is contingent on the Red Sox getting a contract extension. If there is no extension in the next 103 minutes, the deal will fall through (says his source).

redsock said...

Hayes, 11:03 AM: "Hearing 2 sides are somewhat at an impasse right now & everything is up in the air. Trade potentially might not happen."

JimD, SoSH: "To save my sanity, I think I'm just going to shut off the computer and go outside until after 2:00."

Probably a wise move.

redsock said...

heyman says sox offered 6 years, do not want to go as high/long as teix (8/180)

mattymatty said...

This has an air of the Curt Schilling negotiations over Thanksgiving in '03. I'm as nervous now as I was then. Hope it works out...

redsock said...

I will not be going outside! Got tabs open for Hayes's and Heyman's twitter pages -- and SoSH.

redsock said...

Pos traveled to NYC on Wednesday. It took a bit longer than expected.

redsock said...

Heyman; "45 mins before gonzalez deadline. still guessing trade happens despite alleged difference in yrs (8 vs. 6) last nite. But guessing.
12 minutes ago via web"

redsock said...

Alex Speier: "Heard that as of a couple minutes before 2pm, the Sox and Gonzalez were still bunkered down, with nothing done yet."

COME ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!

redsock said...

Joel Sherman, New York Post (via Twitter), 1:32 pm: "Boston might be okay with just laying out parameters with Gonzalez and finalizing a deal during Spring Training if the slugger is healthy"

No. Not okay.

matthew said...

Heyman's saying no deal.

redsock said...

HEYMAN SAYS
DEAL FELL THROUGH?!?!?!!?

redsock said...

WHAT THE FUCKING FUCK?

Ish said...

Tweets from Jon Heyman...

2:13 PM: #redsox could still make trade without firm extension, so long as paramters are close

2:15 PM: The 2 pm deadline on a-gon window may be "soft" as baseball understands the significance of player and situation. Overtime may be ok.

2:42 PM: Source; gonzalez deal fell thru

2:42 PM: #redsox just could not reach deal w a-gon.


WOW.

Ish said...

Guess you were one step ahead of me!

I share the same sentiment... WHAT THE FUCK.

Ish said...

Ken Rosenthal: "Source: 'Window closed. No deal.' Trying to find out more."

Ish said...

Heyman: "word last nite was that at a-gon sought 8 yr deal, #redsox preferred 6. but that was early in process and unconfirmed. "

mattymatty said...

If this is true its pretty bad...

Ish said...

Now Rosenthal is saying it's far from over. The window closed to negotiate an extension, but the two teams can still negotiate a trade.

All of this sparked by a simple tweet by Jon Heyman that the deal has "fallen thru" with no details at all. How about get the fucking details and then break the news, eh?

He ends up looking like a dumbass.