August 21, 2007

Lowell in '08?

Mike Lowell's solo home run gave him back the team lead with 85 RBI. It also broke Scott Kazmir's string of 61 consecutive innings without allowing a long ball.

According to Runs Created Per 27 Outs, Lowell (6.57) has been Boston's third most-productive hitter behind David Ortiz (8.60) and Dustin Pedroia (6.91). He's having what could be a career-best year at the plate, but he also will be a free agent after this season.

The Globe's Nick Carfado notes "there's been an unsaid, unwritten, nudge-nudge notion that Kevin Youkilis will wind up at third base [in 2008] and the Sox will bring in a first baseman". Lowell, 33, has said he does not want to sign a one-year deal -- presumably he'd like at least three, something that would take him to the end of his career.

I'd apply Branch Rickey's philosophy in this case: "Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late." Lowell could have a nice 2008, but his 2010 season will likely not be worth the money.

Also: Would Yook, who is having a second half slump for the second straight season, get more worn out playing third every night? Will Mark Teixeira re-sign with Atlanta?


Dan said...

I disagree. While I think three years may be too much, I think the upside of a 2 year deal might be just what the Sox need. He's a great clubhouse leader, and the ladies love him (Just look at Red Sox Chick :-) ). But, this is with the caveat that we don't see a late season dwindle of course.

redsock said...

I'm pretty sure I read that he wouldn't be keen on signing a two-year deal. I can't be 100% sure, though.

I can't imagine a team would give him four years, so three seems like a reasonable hope for him.

(He's running out of 2nd half time in which to dwindle!)

tim said...

I can't imagine a team would give him four years, so three seems like a reasonable hope for him.

You never know with the yankees :P

(I'm not saying that he'll go there, they have a-rod, but look at what they gave the handicapable Damon)

L-girl said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
L-girl said...

Thirty years of watching baseball have taught me to agree with Branch. Better too early than too late.

Allen said...

I doubt Teixeira resigns with Atlanta, though he is under team control for next season anyway. The stopgap options at 3B and 1B are not pretty unless you want to gamble that the real Carlos Pena is more like 1st half (1.004 OPS) than 2nd half (.797 OPS, though with a .255 BABIP and still showing decent power). I get the feeling some team (Cincinatti?) is going to give him a silly 4/48 type deal anyway.

Lowell for 2 years with a vesting option? If he's sure he's going to be worth the money/years, he'll get it. I'm sure the difference between what Lowell sees as his AAV and what the FO sees is negligible compared to the years question.