August 27, 2007

Mazz: It's Over

Tony Massarotti, Herald:
Let's get right to the point: For all intents and purposes, the Red Sox just wrapped up the American League East. ...

Upon completion of their last homestand, they left Boston with a four-game lead in the division. Since, they've gone 6-1 while the Yankees have gone 2-4, pumping the Sox' advantage to a beefy 7½ games in the AL East. ...

If the Sox win only one of the three games in New York - Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling are scheduled to start - they'll still be six games up when they leave town. ...

If the Red Sox merely go 15-16 the rest of the way - and they still have 13 games against Tampa Bay and Baltimore - they will finish with 95 victories.


Cool Standings says Boston has a 97.7% chance to win the East (99.8% to make the playoffs). Baseball Prospectus' three projection systems agree.

Enjoy the off day!

26 comments:

chief said...

Gotta admit, the 4 game sweep of the Other Sox and NY's tough time in Detroit has a sense of finality to me. 7.5 with 31 to go sure feels nice.

__

So we have Dice-K, Beckett and then Schilling against the MFY. Wakefield opens the Orioles series at home on Friday. And, from the sources I've seen, Lester makes the start on Sunday. So who's pitching Saturday?

Anyone? Bueller? Anyone?

Devine said...

Beat the Yankees twice this week, and I'll feel almost comfortable in calling the AL East race over.

But the odds are already pretty good.

CaKeY said...

Oh man, no sense of finality here. Let's take 2 of 3 or better in their house before we start thinking about the playoffs.

This is the biggest series of the year for the Yankees and we should be thinking the same way.

tim said...

Good question. I would also like to know whose going to be starting at the game I go to Sept 14 - I'm pretty sure it will be either Dice-K or Beckett vs. Pettitte. Clemens @ Fenway would be ideal though :P

"RAH-GER! RAH-GER!"

I love how everyone was pushing the panic button one/two even three weeks ago, meanwhile we've been thinking RATIONALLY this whole time (except for my minor outburst that one game) and now the media seems to agree with us again and have 'seen the light'

mugro said...

I agree with the other commenters here. I would like to see the other side of the series in the Bronx before I will join Mazz in calling this thing over.

Nevertheless, it really will be fun to watch the Red Sox go into NY with the swagger and the confidence that they have right now.

Take care of business, win 2 of 3, then back to Fenway knowing that this thing is over. O-V-A. Over.

redsock said...

Let's take 2 of 3 or better in their house before we start thinking about the playoffs.

Playoffs! Playoffs! Playoffs!

This is the biggest series of the year for the Yankees and we should be thinking the same way.

Yep. And both teams have their three best pitchers lined up.

Pressure is on the Chokers. Big time.

Bray said...

Hey Redsock
don't know if you saw this, but it's a nice piece on Jemmer.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/27/sports/baseball/27okajima.html?ref=baseball

ish said...

Playoff implications or no playoff implications... This series is going to be a lot of FUN. The three best pitchers on each team going head to head, and our bullpen going up and shutting down one of the most potent offenses in the game... As a baseball fan you love to see it.

If it's a close game in the 8th inning, we better see Gagné out there because he's a big game, pressure-situation pitcher, and this is the perfect environment for him to get back on track in.

Don't forget, this is going to be one of the best weeks in MLB yet:

- Angels at Seattle for the AL West

- Minnesota at Cleveland (MIN is #3 in AL Central, but only 5.5 games behind #1 Cleveland. They have a chance to really get back in this thing.)

- Mets at Philadelphia (Mets have a 6 game lead over PHI, 7 over ATL. The Phils can get back in this or be put away.)

- Milwaukee at the Cubs for the NL Central... 1.5 game lead for the Cubs over the Brew Crew.

- Arizona at San Diego for the NL West. ARI leads SD by 3 games.

Very interesting to see how things play themselves out.

s1c said...

The pressure is on the spankees but it will be interesting to see how the Sox approach this series. Personally, I would like to see them keep the professional approach that they have so far. One game at a time, one at bat at a time, etc. Ideally, this is a chance to put the nails in the coffin. Lets hope they do better than the last time.

Have the Sox won 5 games in a row this year? I can't remember.

redsock said...

Have the Sox won 5 games in a row this year? I can't remember.

3 times (longest of the year)

April 18 to April 22
May 25 to May 29
July 20 to July 24

BR is your friend.

redsock said...

Thanks bray!

better link

"Earlier this season, a Boston cabbie kept raving about this new guy, Hideki Okajima, unaware that his favorite left-hander was riding in the back seat. Okajima said he and his wife never alerted the taxi driver."

efd said...

This story from The Onion is pretty good.

Keep reading to the end, even if you think the joke is getting tired.

Jere said...

"Clemens @ Fenway would be ideal though :P"

I'll be at a game of that series, too, Tim. And I'll give you one million dollars if either of us sees Roger on the Fenway mound.

"This is the biggest series of the year "

This week is a huge series for the Yanks--because they're within 2 of the wild card. We can just win one and be in great shape afterward.

s1c said...

Ah, I see you are liking your subscription to Baseball-Reference :).

I was making a quick post so I didn't have time to run the figures, then again, I probably shouldn't have posted the question before. Now would be a good time for them to make those meaningless streaks by winning six in a row.

Lester makes the start on Sunday. So who's pitching Saturday?

I wouldn't count on the Lester start (though it wouldn't surprise me), I've also seen and heard some rumuors about Buccholz making a start then also. If, and I stress if the Sox can extend this lead while in the Bronx, it should be an interesting final month as far as the pitching goes.

efd said...

Even if the Yankees somehow break off a 4-game winning streak starting tonight, when Thursday night rolls around they'd still be 4 games out -- just like they were a week ago, and the week before that. I feel pretty good about the Red Sox right now.

Of course, the ultimate satisfaction for me (and probably most of the people here) would be for the Yankees to miss the playoffs altogether. That's still somewhat up in the air; hopefully if Seattle falters then Detroit will step it up.

redsock said...

Haven't actually bought it yet, s1c! But I will.

redsock said...

I'll give you one million dollars if either of us sees Roger on the Fenway mound.

So Tubby will have a sudden hamstring problem?

These are must wins for the MFY. Granted, Billy has a hard time doing well in those, but this is not really a game he can call in sick for.

I say he pitches -- I can't wait for the chants!!!

westcoastsox said...

Re the Jeemer article, I keep loving it when I see the "hero in the dark" quote. Did anyone other than me see MFC's column (Murray F@#$%% Chass) in the NYT today? It was infuriating. The guy is a moron.

L-girl said...

I've been thinking playoffs since April!

No, make that November.

tim said...

I'll be at a game of that series, too, Tim. And I'll give you one million dollars if either of us sees Roger on the Fenway mound.

Heh, true. He is about due for a hammy injury during his start prior to the September series, forcing him to miss one start. What incredibly bad timing. Oy. Woe is billy.

And come on people, enough with all this "if we take one we'll be in great shape" talk! Screw that, I want a sweep! Bury em now, its not like it's that hard to do. I mean it is the Yankees after all.

tim said...

Holy avatars, batman! I'm gonna have to get one set up.

L-girl said...

Why does anyone read Murray Chass? Seriously, why? Do you love being annoyed? Or do you just hate good writing?

L-girl said...

And come on people, enough with all this "if we take one we'll be in great shape" talk! Screw that, I want a sweep! Bury em now, its not like it's that hard to do. I mean it is the Yankees after all.

WHOO-HOO! I'm with Timmy.

Jeff in PA said...

Amen Tim! I say get the brooms out of the closet and hurt them at home!

s1c said...

ok how did you get your avatars to show?

Second, I hope its not Lester starting on Sunday. Just got off the phone with a buddy and we have two tickets for Sunday's game. I've seen Lester I want to see Buchholz or Matsuzaka (will even settle for SL).

I'll be the one behind the dugout in the s1c hat!!! woo woo

chief said...

I had heard Lester for Sunday in the Globe and from Edes on NESN, so that's probably one source.

It doesn't make sense to me though - it looks like it should be Dice-K's normal spot with Lester/Buckhultz/Lips starting Saturday.

Oh well, we'll know soon enough.

Go Tigers!