Some Depressing ALWC Tidbits

The Red Sox had a Win Expectancy Percentage over 50% for only two plate appearances in the two games. Both fleeting moments came early (or early-ish) in Game 2.

In the top of the third, after Nate Eaton doubled (0-0, 1 out), it was 52%.
When Jahmai Jones struck out looking, it dropped to 48%.

In the top of the fourth, after Willson Contreras walked (0-0 0 out), it was 54%.
Wilyer Abreu struck out (50%). Ceddanne Rafaela flied to center (47%).

Sarah Langs

26 scoreless innings vs the Red Sox dating to last year was the most consecutive scoreless innings pitched in the postseason by the Yankees vs a single opponent
h/t @EliasSports

The Yankees have won consecutive games by 7+ runs, tied with 1961, 1960 and 1937 for the longest single-postseason streak in franchise history
Only one team has won 3 straight by 7+ in a single postseason: 2007 Red Sox

+16 is tied with 1951 WS G4-5 for the second-highest run differential in a 2-game span in Yankees postseason history, behind only: 1960 WS G2-3: +23

Yankees pitchers opened this postseason with 14 consecutive scoreless innings
That’s the second-longest scoreless streak by NYY pitching to start a postseason, behind 20 IP in 1921
This is their 61st postseason appearance
h/t @EliasSports

This is the first time the Yankees have scored 9+ runs in consecutive postseason games since doing so in 3 straight 2020 ALWCS G1-2 and ALDS G1, which tied a franchise-record such streak (also done in 1998)

Fastest-tracked OF assists in postseason under Statcast (2015):
2016 ALDS G1 Jackie Bradley Jr.: 105.1 mph
2023 ALDS G1 Matt Wallner: 99.2 mph 
2026 ALWCS G2 Nate Eaton: 99.1 mph [Eaton threw out Ben Rice at the plate]

Most Common Postseason Matchups, MLB History
Yankees-Dodgers: 12 series (NYY leads, 8-4)
Yankees-Red Sox: 7 (NYY, 4-3)
Yankees-Cleveland: 7 (NYY, 5-2)
Yankees-Giants: 7 (NYY, 5-2)

OptaSTATS

The Yankees are the first team in MLB history to score at least 90% of the runs in a postseason series (min. 20 total runs).

The whitesox are the first team in MLB history to hold the lead at the end of every single inning of a multi-game postseason series.

The Padres are the first team in MLB history to hold the highest-scoring team in the majors during the regular season to just one run (or none) in a multi-game postseason series.
The previous low for runs scored by the regular-season scoring leader in a multi-game postseason series was 3 (Orioles held the White Sox to 3 runs in the 1983 ALCS).

Lowest slugging percentage in a multi-game postseason series, MLB history:
.145 - 2026 Cubs (NLWC)
.153 - 2020 Twins (ALWC)
.154 - 2022 Rays (ALWC)
.174 - 1998 Rangers (ALDS)
.179 - 2019 Cardinals (NLCS)

Katie Sharp @SharpStats17

Spencer Jones #FunFact
Jones is the first player in the play-by-play era (since 1910) to strike out twice and steal a base in an inning in any game (postseason or regular season).

Jones also scored in that inning, making his feat perhaps even harder to match, though if your team is batting around and you were on base, you probably scored a run. (Whatever. If Someone Named Spencer Jones is ever known for anything, it will be only this.)

Going back to Langs's list, how is it possible that the second-most common postseason matchup in all of MLB history are two teams from the same goddamn division? That is not how things should be. This is what happens when people who hate baseball are allowed to run baseball . . . into the ground.

After my YED 2026 hangover dissipates, I'll be doing game stories for the World Series.

ALWC 2: Yankees 9, Red Sox 2

Red Sox - 000 001 100 - 2  4  1 
Yankees - 000 116 10x - 9 14  0 

What a shit show.

The Red Sox trailed by one run after Willson Contreras bopped a home run to right-center in the top of the sixth. It was the first time in these two ALWC games that a Boston runner's foot had touched third base – and home plate. It snapped both the longest scoreless streak to start a postseason series in franchise history (14.2 innings) and a streak of 26.2 postseason innings in which the Red Sox had not scored (which included the final 12 innings of last year's ALWC series).

So things were looking up . . . sort of. A glimmer of hope.

Then Boston manager Chad Tracy decided – for the most important four innings of the entire season, when it was imperative to keep the Yankees from scoring any more runs – to hand the ball to the biggest question mark in the bullpen – Garrett Crochet – a guy who had not pitched in an actual game in over five months. On the plus side, he'd be pitching on 157 days of rest.

And to no one's real surprise, everything unraveled. Crochet struck out Spencer Jones, but the ball got away from catcher Adley Rutschman, rolling off to the third base side of foul territory. His throw was just a little too late – the original call was out, but was overturned when the Yankees challenged. Jones then stole second and went to third when Rutschman's throw sailed wide of second and into center field. Crochet allowed singles to the next three batters (one was a bunt to third), before he was pulled.

Garret Whitlock came in with New York up 3-1, the bases loaded, and no one out. Whitlock got two outs, but both a fly to left and a grounder to third brought in single runs. It was 5-1. Tracy opted to walk Ben Rice (who was 1-for-3 with a single after his big Game 1) intentionally, a move which backfired horribly when Cody Bellinger hit a three-run dong to right-center. (Not that it mattered in the end. 5-1  would have been more than enough to dismiss the Red Sox.)

Nick Sogard homered in the seventh with two outs. The Yankees also scored in that frame on two walks, three stolen bases, and a single. Boston's season came to an meek and pathetic end when Caleb Durbin swing and missed the final pitch of the night, a 95-mph fastball down the middle.

ALDS: The Yankees will play the Rays. The White Sox swept the Astros 6-3, 7-3 and will play the Guardians. Both series start on Saturday.

NLDS: The Padres beat the Cubs 8-0, 4-1 and will face the Brewers on Saturday.  The Phillies and Atlanta are tied 1-1 (Atlanta won G1 5-3 before Phillies took G2 4-3 in 10 innings). Game 3 is Thursday night; the winner plays the Dodgers beginning on Sunday.

Jones, DH
Rutschman, C
Contreras, 1B
Abreu, RF
Rafaela, CF
Durbin, 3B
Sogard, 2B
Story, SS
Eaton, LF

Sonny Gray / Max Fried

Sonny Gray waived a no-trade clause last December, agreeing to a trade to the Red Sox, because

it feels good to me to go to a place now where it's easy to hate the Yankees. It's easy to go out and have that rivalry and go into it with full force, full steam ahead. I like the challenge.

Gray, 36, will meet his biggest challenge of the season tonight. He was the Red Sox's best starting pitcher in 2026, leading the staff with a 2.72 ERA (8th in MLB) and 150 ERA+ (tied for 10th in MLB). He also tied for the most wins (18), for whatever that's worth. More importantly, he pitched at least six innings in 22 of his 29 starts.

Gray also pitched for the Yankees in 2017 and 2018. He was traded to New York at the 2017 deadline and admits he "never wanted to go there in the first place" and the move was not good for his family.

Jacob Roy, Over The Monster, September 30, 2026:

Let's think about it in innings. The Red Sox used five relievers on Tuesday night . . . That leaves Ranger Suarez, Garrett Crochet, Garrett Whitlock, Aroldis Chapman, and Jake Bennett as the unused [bullpen] pitchers . . . 

Ranger Suarez is set to start game three. Garrett Crochet is a complete unknown. . . . Garrett Whitlock has been one of the best relievers in baseball, but his longest outing of the season is 1.1 innings. . . . Chapman, like Whitlock, has been fantastic, but hasn't got more than three outs in a game this season. If you put those three arms together and assign two innings to Crochet, that's four innings. . . . 

The offense was, at least in terms of scoring, the worst in baseball in September. Roman Anthony was lost in the middle of game one, and the rest of the lineup couldn't touch Schlittler. . . .

For the Red Sox to win today, they need Sonny Gray to turn in one of the best postseason performances of his career.

Roman Anthony was taken off the Red Sox roster and replaced with Curtis Mead. Manager Chad Tracy said:

He was sent back last night after leaving the game. Sent him back to Boston for extra, additional imaging, which actually revealed some new strains to different muscles in his wrist, in addition to exacerbating the old [finger] injury [a partially torn tendon in a joint that connects his right ring finger to his wrist back on May 4].

The roster change means that if the Red Sox win this series, Anthony would be forced to miss the ALDS. 

Max Ralph (mlb.com) reports:

[T]eams taking a 1-0 lead in a three-game Wild Card series have gone on to win the series 21 of 24 times (88%), including 17 two-game sweeps. Home teams have won all nine series in which they have gone ahead 1-0, including eight sweeps.

ALWC 1: Yankees 9, Red Sox 0

 

Red Sox - 000 000 000 - 0  3 0

Yankees - 010 010 25x - 9 12 0

Almost exactly one year ago, on October 2, 2025, in the winner-take-all Game 3 of last year's ALWC series, Cam Schlittler pitched eight shutout innings against the Red Sox, striking out 12. The Yankees mugged Connelly Early in the fourth inning, winning the game with ease, 4-0.

Schlittler was also on the mound Tuesday night in New York, the next postseason game between these two rivals. Schlittler was equally untouchable (6.1-2-0-1-10, 117). He recorded 18 swings-and-misses . . . in the first four innings.

He and two relievers had absolutely no trouble rendering the Red Sox lineup completely impotent. Boston had a total of four baserunners, only one of which got past first base (and was left on second). Of the Red Sox's first 23 outs, only one left the infield.

The Yankees led 2-0 at the stretch and then hammered the back end of the Boston bullpen, scoring seven more runs in two innings. Ben Rice capped an outstanding night, hitting an grand slam in the eighth of Brayan Bello. Rice hit two home runs, a single and a double, scored twice and drove in six. He's the first MFY with multiple homers including a grand slam in a postseasion game.

OptaSTATS reports:

On Tuesday the Yankees' Ben Rice: hit multiple homers, hit a grand slam, had all of his team's XBH, outhit the entire opposing team. No one else in MLB history has done all of that in any game, regular season or postseason.

56 pitchers have made multiple postseason starts against the Red Sox. Schlittler joined Bob Gibson as the only two to have two games of 10+ strikeouts. Gibson fanned 10 Red Sox batters in Games 1 and 7 of the 1967 World Series.

Schlittler now has a 0.47 ERA in his first six career starts against the Red Sox (including postseason) , the lowest by a pitcher against Boston since ERA became an official stat in 1913. . . . His 117 pitches was a career high.

This was the entirety of the Red Sox's offense:

T1: Adley Rutschman singled with one out. Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu both struck out.

T5: Jarren Duran walked with two outs. Trevor Story flied to center.

T7: Abreu singled to right-center (Schlittler's last batter). Ceddanne Rafaela GIDP.

T8: Story doubled with two outs. Caleb Durbin flied to center.

Reached Base Safely

Ben Rice: 4 times in 5 plate appearances

Red Sox: 4 times in 30 plate appearances

September 29, 2026 was the first day in postseason history with two shutouts of 8+ runs. The Padres dismissed the the Cubs 8-0.

The Red Sox are in danger of exiting this postseason without leaving any evidence they were here at all.

Red Sox -  
Yankees -  

G1: Payton Tolle / Cam Schlittler

G2: Sonny Gray / Max Fried

G3: Ranger Suarez / Gerrit Cole

Best-of-3. The winner of the series will play the Rays in the ALDS.

The Red Sox have been in a hitting/scoring slump for most of this month. In 17 games since September 8, they've scored only 42 runs (2.47 runs per game) while going 7-10. In their last eight games, the red Sox have scored more than two runs only once (1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 4, 2, 2). . . . Boston went 6-7 against New York this season. The most runs they scored off the MFY in a game was six, which they did three times.

But all that is old news. It's time to bring the bats because . . .  IT IS ON!

Red Sox & Yankees Will Meet In ALWC On Tuesday

The Red Sox and Yankees are expected to meet in one of the two American League Wild Card series next Tuesday. Boston can grab the AL's #5 seed with a win tonight. The series will be a best-of-3, with all of the games in the Bronx. . . . Will the Red Sox ring in YED 2026 on September 30 or October 1?

The Red Sox are in the postseason thanks to a historic 30-game stretch in which they went 27-3 (.900), a stretch that stands in stark contrast to the 58-70 record (.453) in games before and after that period.

0326-0701:  37-48 .435
0702-0807:  27- 3 .900
0808-0923:  21-22 .488
            85-73 .538  (4 games remaining)

Lefty Garrett Crochet (2025 AL Cy Young runner-up) hasn't pitched in a game since April 25, because of left shoulder inflammation. On Tuesday, he threw 16 pitches of batting practice, hitting 96 mph.

I would say the way that live just went, that I could go get outs. It depends obviously what role they want me in. . . . I know myself, and I know my body, and the biggest thing was that I felt good out there. Felt like I was able to ramp up intensity to a place that I haven't gone yet.

Ian Browne reports that Aroldis Chapman is back after missing about two weeks with a lat issue. "I'm happy to be back. . . . I feel like I'm at 100 percent right now." Manager Chad Tracy expects to have his set-up-closing trio of Tyron Guerrero, Garrett Whitlock and Chapman for the ALWC.

Tracy's starters for this week's series against Cleveland were Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez, but he has not yet confirmed that would be the order against the Yankees. . . . Gray's 2.72 ERA is 8th in MLB, 5th in the AL. Tolle (3.03) and Suarez (3.23) are not too far behind in ERA.

The Red Sox went 6-7 against the Yankees this season. Boston's four-game sweep at Fenway (June 25-28) was a bit of a prelude to their 27-3 run.

In 2021, the Red Sox beat the Yankees 6-2 in the Wild Card Game. In the 2025 ALWC, the Yankees defeated the Red Sox 4-3 and 4-0 after Boston won the first game 3-1.

Will perennial IL-lodger and postseason whiff-machine* A-A-Ron Judge play in the series? Judge (right calf strain) said he'll be ready to play ("that's what the plan is"), but his manager said the exact opposite. "We're planning on him not being a part of [the ALWC]." . . . Craig Calcaterra reports that this is "the third or fourth time since Judge came off of his long IL stint this season that he's either contradicted what someone on his team said or otherwise did not go along with the expected flow of ballplayer communications".

*: If strikeouts were hits, Judge would have a .370 postseason batting average (91-for-246). . . . His actual average, in 65 career post-season games, is an unimpressive .236 (58-for-246).

Red Sox Wallop Athletics 13-1 – Now 27-3 In Last 30 Games

Payton Tolle struck out 14 Athletics in six innings on Friday night, the most strikeouts by a Boston pitcher at age 23 or younger since Fat Billy From Ohio fanned 20 Mariners on April 29, 1986, as the Red Sox walloped the Athletics 13-1. Tolle had a career-high 24 swings-and-misses.

Boston is 27-3 over the last 30 games.

Tolle struck out the side in the second, fourth, and sixth innings (231 323). He allowed a leadoff homer in the fifth and an infield single to start the sixth. The Athletics hit only three of Tolle's 84 pitches out of the infield – and only one of Raymond Burgos's 34 pitches in relief.

Some context on the Red Sox's white-hot streak:

Sarah Langs (and Elias): 

The Red Sox are the 10th team since 1900 to enjoy a 27-3 run – and only the third team in the last 73 years. The 1977 Royals and 2017 Clevelands are the others.

The Red Sox began this 27-3 run with a 37-48 record. They are the first team in major league history to win at least 27 games in a 30-game span while entering that span 10+ games under .500. (Only two other teams began a similar 30-game stretch with a record below .500: the 1916 Giants (three games under) and the 1887 St. Louis Browns (one game under).

On June 25, Boston was 32-46. Now they are 64-51. The Red Sox are the fastest team in major league history to go from 14 games under .500 to 13 games over: 44 days, according to Elias. The previous quickest was accomplished 112 years ago by a different Boston team: 59 days, by the 1914 "Miracle" Braves.

The Red Sox began July at 37-47. They ended the month at 58-51. They are the first team in major league history to enter a calendar month 10+ games under .500 and leave that month at least seven games over .500, per Elias. (In fact, only two teams had entered a month 10+ games under and ended the month two games over: Giants (July 2019) and Red Sox (August 1996).

Boston's 21-4 (.840) record in July is the highest winning percentage in a calendar month in franchise history (min. 15 games).

OptaSTATS:

In July the @RedSox:
won 20+ games

had a 15+ game winning streak

had 10+ comeback wins

swept a 9+ game road trip

had a .900+ road win pct
No other team in MLB history has done all of that in a single month.

The Red Sox have won 19 consecutive games against teams from the three largest metro areas in the United States (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago). That's the longest winning streak by any team against opponents from those three metro areas in major league history. . . . The previous record for longest winning streak against foes from the NY/LA/Chicago metro areas was 17 by the 1915 St. Louis Terriers of the Federal League (6 vs. Brooklyn Tip-Tops, 6 vs. Newark Peppers, 5 vs. Chicago Whales).

Payton Tolle is the only MLB pitcher to throw fewer than 85 pitches and have 14+ strikeouts (since pitches were first tracked in 1988).

Lowest ratio of pitches to strikeouts in a major league game (since 1988, min. 75 pitches):
1 K every 5.95 pitches - Max Scherzer, Nationals (9-6-2-0-20, 119) against Tigers, May 11, 2016
1 K every 6.00 pitches - Payton Tolle, Red Sox (6-2-1-0-14, 84) against Athletics August 7, 2026
1 K every 6.10 pitches - Kerry Wood, Cubs (9-1-0-0-20, 122) against Astros, May 6, 1998

P.S.: It's nuts that it took until 1988 for major league baseball to keep track of pitches on any sort of organized basis. That was the National League's 113th season. MLB also waited until 1984 to make on-base percentage, which measures a batter's most essential task (not making an out), an official stat.

"Biologically Incapable Of Losing": Unstoppable Red Sox Are 26-3 and 31-5 After Astonishing 13-Inning Walkoff; Postseason Odds Up From 9% to 97%

Since the Red Sox lost to the Rockies way back on June 24, the team has won 31 of 36 games, a streak that includes a franchise-tying 15-game winning streak. It is the best 36-game stretch in team history.

Boston is 17-0 against first-place teams in that span, and is the first team to record six sweeps of first-place teams in one season since divisional play began in 1969 – and they accomplished that feat over only six weeks.

June 25-28:       Swept 4 games from first-place Yankees
July 7-9:         Swept 3 games from first-place White Sox
July 17-19:       Swept 4 games from first-place Rays
July 31-August 2: Swept 3 games from first-place Dodgers
August 4-6:       Swept 3 games from first-place White Sox

The Red Sox have won nine straight series, the second-longest streak in team history; the 1912 team won 11 consecutive series from August 4 to September 15, 1912.

Boston has won its last 28 games in which they score at least four runs. And the Red Sox have won 26 of their last 29 games, something only three other teams have accomplished in the last 73 seasons (1977 Royals, 2002 Athletics, 2017 Clevelands).

Boston's record stands at 63-51; they are five games behind Tampa Bay and a mere half-game behind the Yankees. While Boston has gone 31-5, the Rays have gone 24-15 (third best in MLB). A 63-51 record would easily lead both the AL Central (by four games) and AL West (by five games).

After games of June  24: 1st Yankees (48-31), 15.5 GA of 5th Red Sox (32-46)
After games of August 6: 2nd Yankees (64-51),  0.5 GA of 3rd Red Sox (63-51)

Since June 24, the Red Sox are fifth in MLB in on-base percentage, fourth in slugging percentage and third in runs scored. Before their hot streak started, they were projected to have a 9% chance of making the postseason. Those odds now stand at 96.1%, with a 15.3% chance of winning the pennant and a 7% chance of winning the World Series.

J.P. Long (@SoxNotes) states: "The Red Sox are the 26th team in the World Series Era (1903-present) to go 30-5 or better in a 35-game stretch. Each of the other 25 made the Postseason (10 of them won the World Series)."

Boston's 12-11 victory last night at Fenway (against the AL-Central leading White Sox) was the most impressive victory in [fill in the blank] years:

Chicago White Sox – 004 120 000 211 0 – 11 13  1
Boston Red Sox    – 002 301 001 211 1 – 12 16  2

I've loved looking at linescores for all sorts of oddities for nearly a half-century, and it fuckin kills me  that I can no longer enjoy extra-inning linescores because Commissioner Asshole Motherfucker decided that one of the most foundational rules of the game should suddenly change – for no meaningful or logical reason and no observable or measurable benefit – if there is a tenth (or later) inning. It means I can't fully enjoy the Red Sox's linescore above, or this minor league game from roughly a month ago (July 4):

Great Lakes - 000 300 020 121 21 - 12 17  3
Fort Wayne  - 120 000 000 121 22 - 13 15  1

If this had happened when all innings were created equal, it would be mind-blowing. Instead, it's a cute curiosity.

The quote in the post title comes from Reddit: "This team is biologically incapable of losing. I have no idea what happened to them."

Meanwhile, in MFY-land: