Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2014. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2014. Show all posts

March 30, 2014

ESPN: 30 of 44 Experts Pick NL To Win World Series

ESPN's 44 experts have posted their picks:

AL East
Rays        25
Red Sox     14
Yankees      3
Orioles      2
Blue Jays    0
AL Pennant
Tigers      16
Rays        15
Red Sox      5
Rangers      2
Yankees      2
Orioles      1
A's          1
Cleveland    1
Royals       1
World Series
Nationals   12
Dodgers     11
Cardinals    7
Rays         6
Tigers       5
Red Sox      2
Cleveland    1
Picking Red Sox to win AL Pennant: Bill Baer, Marty Bernoski, Mark Simon, Joe McDonald, Peter Pascarelli

Picking Red Sox to win World Series: Joe McDonald, Peter Pascarelli

AL MVP
Trout       29
Cabrera      6
Longoria     2
Beltre       2
Pedroia      1
Davis        1
Hosmer       1
AL Cy Young
Darvish     21
Price        5
Verlander    5
Hernandez    3
Lester       2
Sanchez      2
Masterson    1
Sale         1
Moore        1
Cobb         1
AL Rookie
Masahiro Tanaka   14
Xander Bogaerts   13
Jose Abreu        11
Yordano Ventura    2
Francisco Lindor   1
Taijuan Walker     1

More Predictions: Fangraphs, SB Nation, Schoenfield, NY Times

Fangraphs:

AL Division Winners
East: Boston (16), Tampa Bay (12), Baltimore (2), New York (1), Toronto (0)
Central: Detroit (21), Cleveland (8), Kansas City (2), Minnesota (0), Chicago (0)
West: Oakland (19), Anaheim (8), Texas (4), Seattle (0), Houston (0)

Number of Fangraphs authors who voted for each team to make the postseason, either through the division or the wild card:
Boston:     29 of 31
Oakland:    26
Detroit:    26
Tampa Bay:  24
Anaheim:    12
Cleveland:  11
Texas:       8
New York:    8
Kansas City: 6
Baltimore:   4
Seattle:     1
Toronto:     0
Minnesota:   0
Chicago:     0
Houston:     0
The National League predictions are here.
Example
SB Nation:

AL East
Rays
Red Sox
Orioles
Yankees
Blue Jays

AL MVP: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young: Yu Darvish
AL Rookie: Jose Dariel Abreu
AL WC: A's over Red Sox
ALCS: Rays over A's
NLCS: Cardinals over Dodgers
World Series: Cardinals over Rays
Example
David Schoenfield, ESPN:

AL East
Rays       93-69 
Red Sox    91-71 
Orioles    84-78
Yankees    84-78
Blue Jays  78-84
AL MVP: Mike Trout (Pedroia 5th)
AL Cy Young: David Price
AL Rookie: Masahiro Tanaka (Bogaerts 2nd)

World Series: Rays over Dodgers in 7.
Example

Tyler Kepner, New York Times:

AL East
Orioles
Rays*
Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays

MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Chris Sale
Rookie: Masahiro Tanaka
ALCS: Orioles over Rays
World Series: Cardinals over Orioles

March 28, 2014

ESPN Picks Red Sox To Win AL East

ESPN's MLB Preview is here.

AL East
Red Sox    90-72  ---
Rays       89-73    1
Yankees    85-77    5
Orioles    82-80    8
Blue Jays  77-85   13
On the Red Sox:
Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN: Turning the page on Boston's 2013 championship and refocusing for 2014 seems completely reflexive for the Red Sox players, given that a strength of Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli et al is to focus on each pitch in each at-bat in each game. They're ready for the next challenge.

David Schoenfield @dschoenfield: The Red Sox led the majors in runs scored in 2013, scoring 57 more runs than the Tigers, but you have to wonder if they will have that caliber of attack again. They must replace Jacoby Ellsbury's offense in center field, whether from Jackie Bradley Jr. or Grady Sizemore, who hasn't played a full season since 2008, and hope that 38-year-old David Ortiz can have another big season and that rookie Xander Bogaerts lives up to the hype. In the rotation, Clay Buchholz was stellar when on the mound and John Lackey had his best season in years. Can they be that effective again? Closer Koji Uehara had one of the most dominant relief seasons ever but has never had completely healthy back-to-back seasons in the majors. Still, Boston's depth in the lineup, bullpen and rotation makes it a solid favorite to return to the postseason.
AL Central: Tigers by 8 over Royals
AL West: A's and Rangers tied, 2 ahead of Angels
NL East: Nationals by 5 over Atlanta
NL Central: Cardinals by 7 over Pirates
NL West: Dodgers by 9 over Giants

ESPN is posting its individual predictions on Sunday.

SI 2014: Red Sox (92 Wins) Behind Rays (95)

Sports Illustrated's 2014 Baseball Issue is out:

AL East
Rays       95-67  ---
Red Sox    92-70    3
Yankees    82-80   13
Orioles    78-84   17
Blue Jays  73-89   22

AL Central: Tigers by 4 over Royals
AL West: A's by 4 over Rangers
NL East: Nationals by 12 over Atlanta
NL Central: Cardinals by 5 over Reds
NL West: Dodgers by 7 over Giants

MVPs: Mike Trout; Bryce Harper
Cy Youngs: Yu Darvish; Clayton Kershaw
Rookies: Xander Bogaerts; Billy Hamilton

AL WC: Red Sox over Rangers
ALDS: Rays over Red Sox; A's over Tigers
ALCS: A's over Rays
World Series: Nationals over A's

SI says the Red Sox are baseball's 6th-best team, 3rd-best in the AL.

February 18, 2014

Red Sox Vs The East; Jeter Hagiography In Full Swing

ESPN's Sweet Spot blog looks at how the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox match up against the other AL East teams for 2014: Rays, Yankees, Orioles, and Blue Jays.

From those previews, we see that Baseball Prospectus pegs the division like this:
Red Sox    89-73
Rays       89-73
Yankees    82-80
Blue Jays  80-82
Orioles    75-87
Fangraphs asks: Who Should Be Boston's New Leadoff Hitter?
Example

You may have heard that Derek Jeter is retiring after the 2014 season. Spring training has just begun and it's clear the extent to which the national media will praise Captain Intangibles this summer will make its usual Jeter Lovefest sound like non-Giants fans serenading Barry Bonds.

Jon Paul Morosi, Fox Sports, Jeter Means Just As Much To Baseball As He Does To Yankees:
Even the most obsessive Red Sox fans who jeered Jeeeee-taaaaah with irrational hatred during the tormented years before 2004 would have to agree: Jeter has been baseball's most consistent winner and greatest ambassador for the past two decades. ...

In the wake of Jeter's announcement, the debate raged on Twitter and through radio airwaves: What was the all-time best Jeter play? ...

The mere existence of that discussion validates Jeter's mystique. For how many other active players would we be able to have a similar conversation? Are there any? ...

Jeter always has possessed a preternatural sense for what was expected of a man in his position. ... Jeter's grace is not a myth.
Ian O'Connor, ESPNNewYork, As Always, Derek Does It Just Right:
Jeter is about to go down as one of the top 10 players in franchise history, and depending on how you keep score, maybe one of the top five. ...

Jeter was closer to perfect than just about any Yankee before him. ... The shortstop who made a career out of making the right call made another one Wednesday. Of course he did.
Jayson Stark, ESPN, Baseball Is Losing Its Face:
How does any sport replicate what Derek Jeter has meant to baseball over the last decade and a half -- and still does? Is that even possible? ...

[W]here does baseball find the next Derek Jeter? Good luck on that. ...

Is Derek Jeter irreplaceable?
Albert Pujols compared him to Christ! "Only Jesus is perfect, but he's pretty close to that guy." ... SB Nation had a somewhat more nuanced look. ... The Onion provided some humour: "Derek Jeter Announces 2012 Will Be His Final Decent Season".

A half-serious question: Will I have to watch the entire season on mute?

February 3, 2014

A Second Sign Of Spring

Some selected predictions from two more baseball season preview magazines:
Athlon Sports

American League East
Rays
Red Sox
Yankees
Orioles
Blue Jays

AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, A's
ALCS: Tigers over Rangers
NLCS: Cardinals over Nationals
World Series: Cardinals over Tigers

AL MVP: Mike Trout (Dustin Pedroia #5)
AL CY: Yu Darvish
AL Rookie: Taijuan Walker (Xander Bogaerts #3)

Boston Final Analysis: The Red Sox need to be realistic about teams that come out of nowhere - they often return there. While the Red Sox could certainly contend for another World Series and will be right in the thick of the AL East race, they're more likely to cede the stage. Last year they avoided injuries (besides Buchholz) and got bounce-back years from virtually all of their 30-something free agents. Those players are now a year older, and an injury to Ortiz or Pedroia or even Victorino could be devastating. On the flip side, they're beginning the process of getting younger with Bogaerts and Bradley, but entrusting two vital defensive positions to rookies generally isn't a World Series-winning strategy, at least in Year 1. It's Years 2 and beyond that have the Red Sox so excited.

New York Final Analysis: The Yankees have enough players in the latter stages of their primes to form a relentless lineup. If they stay reasonably healthy, they wil contend in the AL East. They just might have to outslug teams to do it, unless the pitching staff improves. Expect Cashman to stay on the lookout for arms to support the potent offense.
Example
USA Today Sports

Eight writers predict the AL East winner: Rays (4), Red Sox (2), Yankees (1), Blue Jays (1). ... Of the six writers that did not pick Boston for 1st in the East, four of them picked the Red Sox for one of the wild cards. ... Two writers pick the Red Sox to win the ALDS, but lose to the Tigers in the ALCS.

Paul White (who oversaw the AL preview) picked the Red Sox to win the East over the Rays by six games with 94 wins. He has the Yankees in 4th (three games out of the cellar) with 81 wins.

Here are the eight WS predictions:
Tigers over Dodgers
Tigers over Dodgers
Dodgers over Tigers
Dodgers over Tigers
Rangers over Atlanta
Rangers over Cardinals
Rangers over Cardinals
Cardinals over Yankees

AL MVP: Mike Trout (5), Prince Fielder (1), Evan Longoria (1), Josh Donaldson (1)
AL CY: Yu Darvish (6), James Shields (1), Chris Sale (1)
AL Rookie: Xander Bogaerts (5), Taijuan Walker (1), Jose Abreu (1), Jonathan Schoop (1)

January 31, 2014

A Sign Of Spring

Two baseball preview magazines are on newsstands.
Sporting News

American League East
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Orioles
Blue Jays

Boston: The Red Sox went from the A.L. east basement to World Series champs due to great chemistry and a resurgent pitching staff last year. They'll be big-time contenders for that title again.

New York: Injuries and advancing age killed the Yankees last year and they still won 85 games in baseball's best division. Braced with several new additions, they should be playoff-bound again.

AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL Wild Card: Yankees defeat Royals
ALDS: Rangers over Red Sox; Tigers over Yankees
ALCS: Rangers over Tigers
World Series: Dodgers over Rangers

AL MVP: Mike Trout
AL CY: Yu Darvish
AL Rookie: Xander Bogaerts

Lindy's Sports

American League East
Red Sox
Rays
Orioles
Yankees
Blue Jays

Boston: Jacoby Ellsbury high-tailed it to the Bronx, but the Red Sox retained enough talent over the winter to make another serious run at the top. With youngsters Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley joining the everyday lineup, the champs could be more dynamic than they were a year ago. Imagine that.

Yankees: This is not a golden age for Yankees baseball. Robinson Cano left for greener pastures, the A-Rod circus clouds the present, and the future looks bleak because the farm system is bereft of talent. Most important for 2014, the Yankees lack the starting pitching to keep pace with the American League's heavyweights.

AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
Wild Cards: A's / Rays
World Series: Tigers / Dodgers

AL MVP: Mike Trout
AL CY: Yu Darvish
AL Rookie: Xander Bogaerts