World Series Predictions (ESPN, USAToday, CBS): Red Sox 33, Dodgers 6

Here are World Series predictions from USA Today, CBS Sports, and ESPN, and a couple of other things.

The 39 picks below break down like this:

                 Five Games   Six Games   Seven Games
Red Sox  (33)        13          15           5
Dodgers  ( 6)         0           4           2

USA Today

Bob Nightengale: The Red Sox clearly are the best team since they won the most games in MLB, and steamrolled through the American League playoffs. ... [T]he disparity is huge between the two leagues, and it will be exhibited in the World Series. Red Sox in 6.

Ted Berg: It's never good business to bet against a 108-win team ... [but] the Dodgers simply seem due. Dodgers in 6.

Steve Gardner: Entering the postseason, the one glaring weakness on the Red Sox roster was its bullpen ... However, the power trio of Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier and Joe Kelly has combined for a 0.96 ERA (2 ER in 18.2 IP) in the postseason. ...Red Sox in 5.

Gabe Lacques: Forcing J.D. Martinez into the field neutralizes perhaps the Red Sox's biggest strength - outfield defense - for three games at Dodger Stadium. But the precision with which the Red Sox dismantled the Astros indicates their 108-win season - now at 115 and counting - was far from a mirage. They are baseball's best team. Red Sox in 6.

Jesse Yomtov: Boston has silenced the haters (of which there are many) so far ... and are peaking at exactly the right time. The AL champs are batting .370 with runners in scoring position during the postseason, compared to the Dodgers' paltry .190 mark. That timely hitting is going to be the key in this series. Red Sox in 5.

CBS Sports

Katherine Acquavella: The Red Sox ... haven't showed signs of slowing down during their playoff run. ... I just don't see this Dodgers team, after having been in peril at multiple points during the season, overcoming the Sox's starting rotation or slowing down the Sox's offense. Red Sox in five.

R.J. Anderson: Boston ... dismissed the Yankees and Astros without too much effort. The Dodgers have a ton of talent and anything can happen in a four-to-seven game series, but ... Red Sox in five.

Mike Axisa: Alex Cora has done a nice job using his starters as setup men to mitigate their occasionally shaky middle relief. I believe the Dodgers are better than their 92-70 regular season record would lead you to believe. I also believe they're the worst team the Red Sox will face this postseason by a decent margin. I'd probably pick the Red Sox over a combined Dodgers-Brewers superteam. Red Sox in five.

Jonah Keri: [The Dodgers] led the majors in park-adjusted offense, fared better by advanced defensive metrics than the Red Sox did, and saw their starting pitchers outpace Boston's in park-adjusted ERA, park-adjusted defense-independent pitching, and strikeout rate. ... I still like Boston's young Killer B's to prevail, because the Sox have just a bit more top-line talent. But it'll be a close, really fun series. Red Sox in seven.

Matt Snyder: After watching them crush the Yankees and pretty much embarrass a 103-win defending champion, I'm convinced this is the team. I can see the Dodgers take one and maybe even two, but I'd be beyond shocked if this goes seven or the Dodgers win. ... Red Sox in five.

ESPN

Red Sox: 20 votes
Dodgers:  5 votes

Red Sox in 7   ( 3 votes)
Red Sox in 6   (12 votes)
Red Sox in 5   ( 5 votes)

Dodgers in 7   ( 2 votes)
Dodgers in 6   ( 3 votes)

Sam Miller: A matchup between a 108-win team and a 92-win team shouldn't be this hard to decide, but ... the Dodgers are also an exceptionally good, maybe even elite, team ... [T]hey won 104 games last year and mostly upgraded their roster ... Red Sox in (for purely selfish reasons) seven.

David Schoenfield: The Red Sox hit much better against right-handed pitching this year, so L.A.'s lefty starters -- not to mention the plus-plus stuff of Walker Buehler -- could be an advantage for the Dodgers. Likewise, all the right-handed relievers for Boston matched up well against the right-handed lineup of Houston, but the Dodgers have more quality left-handed hitters to present some problems. ... Dodgers in six.

Way back on October 2, Jack Dickey of Sports Illustrated correctly picked the World Series match-up:

Prediction: Red Sox over Dodgers in 7. What L.A. and Boston share is power from both sides of the plate (each team had its league's highest slugging percentage), the ability to get on base (the Dodgers' team OBP, .333, was third in baseball; the Red Sox, at .339, were first), bullpens on which you might not want to bet your rent money, and a history of recent postseason disappointment. It comes down to the rotations then, and I'd give Boston's the slight edge ... It'll be close, though.

World Series MVP: Mookie Betts

ESPN's Tim Kurkjian (ESPN) has "three reasons the Red Sox will beat the Dodgers in the World Series":

1. Offense. The Red Sox knocked around a great Astros pitching staff for 29 runs in five games; Houston had not allowed seven runs in three consecutive games this year until the ALCS. ...

The Red Sox are especially good at home, where they went 57-24 this season, the best record in the major leagues. They averaged 5.8 runs per game at Fenway Park, and allowed 4.0 runs, the second-largest disparity by any team in the past 15 years. Fenway can be especially dangerous for left-handed pitchers, and the Dodgers likely will start three left-handed pitchers.

2. Outfield defense. ... With all the strikeouts in the game today, defense has been de-emphasized ... because fewer balls are put in play, but no team can win with a lousy outfield defense, and a great outfield defense such as Boston's can mean the difference in not just one game, but a seven-game series.

3. Chemistry. It is corny, it is clichéd, it is difficult to quantify, but in the case of the Red Sox, the togetherness they show is real. ...

In ALCS Game 5, Nathan Eovaldi, pitching in relief, struck out Alex Bregman with high heat. David Price yelled out from the dugout: "Post that!"

In 10,000 FanGraphs ALCS Simulations, Red Sox Advance 49.4% Of The Time

Dan Szymborski, FanGraphs, October 12, 2018:

The ZiPS projection system will update these charts after every game and as the starting pitcher probables change. They are based on the up-to-date ZiPS projections of the strengths of the teams and the projected starting pitchers. They are different than the playoff odds that appear elsewhere at this site. The FanGraphs playoff probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations using the updated projections in the depth charts. Where ZiPS differs is guessing the game-by-game starting pitcher matchups and using the ZiPS projections, including split projections.

First, here are the game-by-game probabilities:

And here are the overall series probabilities.

Writers At The Athletic & MLB.com Give Postseason Predictions

MLB.com:

Who will win the World Series? We asked a handful of experts from MLB.com to weigh in, and here are their round-by-round predictions.

Totals

ALWC: Yankees 5, Athletics 4
NLWC: Cubs 5, Rockies 4

ALDS: Astros 8, Cleveland 1
ALDS: Red Sox 4, Yankees 4, Athletics 1

NLDS: Dodgers 9, Atlanta 0
NLDS: Brewers 9, Cubs 0, Rockies 0

ALCS: Astros 7, Red Sox 1, Cleveland 1
NLCS: Brewers 5, Dodgers 4

WS: Astros 5, Red Sox 1, Dodgers 1, Brewers 1, Cleceland 1

Will Leitch
ALDS: Yankees over Red Sox; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Astros over Yankees
World Series: Astros over Brewers

Richard Justice
ALDS: Red Sox over Yankees; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Astros over Athletics*
World Series: Astros over Brewers
[*: ALCS features Astros and Red Sox, but Astros will beat Athletics.]

Jim Duquette
ALDS: Red Sox over Yankees; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Red Sox over Astros
World Series: Red Sox over Dodgers

Mark Feinsand
ALDS: Yankees over Red Sox; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Astros over Yankees
World Series: Astros over Brewers

Jesse Sanchez
ALDS: Red Sox over Athletics; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox
World Series: Dodgers over Astros

Anthony Castrovince
ALDS: Yankees over Red Sox; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Astros over Yankees
World Series: Astros over Brewers

Alyson Footer
ALDS: Red Sox over Athletics; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox
World Series: Astros over Brewers

Mike Petriello
ALDS: Athletics over Red Sox; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Astros over Athletics
World Series: Astros over Dodgers

Jon Paul Morosi
ALDS: Yankees over Red Sox; Cleveland over Astros
ALCS: Cleveland over Yankees
World Series: Cleveland over Dodgers

The Athletic:

Who'll​ win it all?​ Well, we don't know either,​ but​ that's never​ stopped​ us from​ trying. Ahead​ of​ Tuesday's wild card​​ game, here are our attempts to predict the unpredictable.

Totals

ALWC: Yankees 6, Athletics 2
NLWC: Cubs 4, Rockies 4

ALDS: Cleveland 4, Astros 4
ALDS: Red Sox 5, Yankees 3, Athletics 0

NLDS: Dodgers 7, Atlanta 1
NLDS: Brewers 8, Cubs 0, Rockies 0

ALCS: Cleveland 4, Red Sox 2, Astros 2
NLCS: Dodgers 5, Brewers 2, Atlanta 1

WS: Cleveland 3, Red Sox 2, Dodgers 1, Brewers 1, Astros 1

Ken Rosenthal
ALDS: Red Sox over Athletics in 4; Cleveland over Astros
ALCS: Cleveland over Red Sox in 6
World Series: Cleveland over Dodgers

Jayson Stark
ALDS: Red Sox over Athletics in 5; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox in 7
World Series: Brewers over Astros

Eno Sarris
ALDS: Yankees over Red Sox in 5; Cleveland over Astros
ALCS: Cleveland over Yankees
World Series: Cleveland over Atlanta

Jim Bowden
ALDS: Red Sox over Yankees in 5; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Red Sox over Astros in 7
World Series: Red Sox over Dodgers in 6

The Red Sox were the best team I saw all season. Their outfield consists of three center fielders who are all significantly above average defensively with plus speed, range, arms, hitting ability and power. Betts is the second best overall player in the game, behind only Mike Trout. J.D. Martinez is ready to take over the postseason with his leadership and dominant bat. The trio of Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello now have enough postseason experience to pull from to finally have playoff success. The bullpen has an impact closer in Kimbrel, and he is surrounded by power arms. Steven Wright will play a big postseason role by eating innings, keeping hitters off-balance and making the arms around him tougher to hit. He's the x-factor, while Martinez will win ALCS MVP and Betts WS MVP.

Emma Span
ALDS: Red Sox over Yankees in 4; Cleveland over Astros
ALCS: Red Sox over Cleveland in 7
World Series: Red Sox over Dodgers in 6

For a team that won 108 games, this Red Sox team is surprisingly underestimated, at least outside of New England. True, there are some bullpen concerns, but that offense — clearly the best in the majors this season — can make up for a lot; since Boston's pitching is still among the games' [sic] best, even with the occasional bullpen hiccup, it likely won't have to make up for much.

Peter Gammons
ALDS: Red Sox over Yankees in 4; Astros over Cleveland
ALCS: Astros over Red Sox in 6
World Series: Astros over Dodgers

Joe Posnanski
ALDS: Yankees over Red Sox in 4; Cleveland over Astros
ALCS: Cleveland over Yankees
World Series: Cleveland over Brewers

Kaci Borowski
ALDS: Yankees over Red Sox in 5; Cleveland over Astros
ALCS: Cleveland over Yankees
World Series: Dodgers over Cleveland

ESPN's "Experts" Offer Postseason Picks

27 ESPN experts give their postseason predictions:

American League Wild Card
Yankees 17, Athletics 10

National League Wild Card
Cubs 20, Rockies 7

American League Division Series
Red Sox 20, Yankees 4 / Athletics 3
Astros 15, Cleveland 12

National League Division Series
Brewers 24, Cubs 3
Dodgers 26, Atlanta 1

American League Championship Series
Red Sox 10, Astros 9, Cleveland 6, Yankees 2

National League Championship Series
Dodgers 14, Brewers 11, Cubs 1, Atlanta 1

World Series
Astros 8, Red Sox 7, Dodgers 5, Cleveland 5, Brewers 1, Yankees

11 Sets Of Predictions, Including ESPN, MLB.com, & SI

ESPN's 29 "experts" have given their team and award predictions for 2018:

AL East: Yankees (21 votes), Red Sox (7), Orioles (1)
[Can picking the Os really be called the actions of an "expert"?]

"Everyone's talking about the Yankees and their bash brothers, but the Red Sox getting J.D. Martinez is so critical to an OBP-laden crew and makes the offenses comparable. Xander Bogaerts will find his power. Hanley Ramirez will find his swing. David Price will find his health. And the Red Sox will find another division title." – Eric Karabell

AL Central: Cleveland (27), Twins (2)
AL West: Astros (29)
AL WCs: Red Sox and Twins (Angels, Mariners, and Blue Jays also received votes)

NL East: Nationals (29)
NL Central: Cubs (28), Brewers (1)
NL West: Dodgers (29)
NL WCs: Brewers and Rockies (Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Mets, Phillies, and Atlanta also received votes)

AL Champion: Astros (12), Cleveland (8), Yankees (7), Red Sox (2)
NL Champion: Cubs (11), Nationals (10), Dodgers (8)

World Series Champion: Astros (8), Cleveland (7), Cubs (4), Dodgers (4), Yankees (3), Red Sox (2), Nationals (1)

AL MVP: Mike Trout (14), Carlos Correa (3), Jose Ramirez (2), Manny Machado (2), Francisco Lindor (2), Gary Sanchez (2), Aaron Judge (2), Jose Altuve (1), Giancarlo Stanton (1)

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (11), Nolan Arenado (6), Kris Bryant (3), Joey Votto (3), Paul Goldschmidt (1), Corey Seager (1), Anthony Rendon (1), Anthony Rizzo (1), Tommy Pham (1), Eric Hosmer (1)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (13), Corey Kluber (6), Luis Severino (5), Justin Verlander (4), Carlos Carrasco (1)

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (13), Max Scherzer (8), Stephen Strasburg (5), Kyle Hendricks (2), Noah Syndergaard (1)

AL Rookie: Shohei Ohtani (11), Gleyber Torres (5), Willie Calhoun (4), Michael Kopech (2), A.J. Puk (2), Anthony Santander (1), Chance Sisco (1), Franklin Barreto (1), Willy Adames (1), Eloy Jimenez (1)

NL Rookie: Ronald Acuna (20), Lewis Brinson (4), Scott Kingery (3), Walker Buehler (1), Ryan McMahon (1)

Chad Thornburg presents the predictions from "more than 50 experts from the MLB.com and MLB Network universe":

American League East: Yankees
These two teams are extremely evenly matched, and the news on Monday that Yankees first baseman Greg Bird will miss 6-8 weeks, because of right foot surgery closes whatever the perceived gap already was. ...

AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels
The Red Sox may not be favored in their own division, but our survey gives them very strong odds to make the postseason as the AL's top Wild Card team, receiving the most votes of any Wild Card candidate in either league. ...

AL champion: Yankees
The Yankees came within one win of the World Series last year, and our experts predict their splashy offseason moves are enough to push them over the edge in 2018. The Astros, of course, aren't going anywhere; they were named back-to-back AL champs on a number of ballots ...

World Series champion: Astros
It may seem weird to have the Astros as World Series champs when our panel picked the Yankees to win the AL, but that's how close the vote was. So while New York got 17 votes to win the pennant (to Houston's 13), many of those voters chose an NL team to win the Fall Classic. As a result, the Astros narrowly edged the Dodgers and Yankees by one vote as this year's World Series favorite among our experts.

Bob Nightengale of USAToday offers "a half-dozen bold predictions":

The Yankees won't win the AL East

From 1 to 25 - with a handful of potential stars lurking in the minor leagues - the Yankees are solidly built. Yet the Yankees are not invulnerable. ...

Judge, in his first full season in the majors, showed he's prone to an extended cold spell. Certainly, his 55-game tailspin (.185, 84 strikeouts in 189 at-bats) after the All-Star break can partially be attributed to that balky left shoulder. ...

Big bodies and big swings can be high-maintenance, however, and a 2018 looking exactly like 2017 for either is not guaranteed. ...

And then there are the Red Sox. It's easy to forget Boston is the reigning division champ and has a healthy David Price from the jump.

Three of Nightengale's other scenarios: "Mike Trout muscles up for 50 home runs ... Marlins will flirt with all-time loss record ... Astros will put away the AL West by June".

Fangraphs' projected standings:

           W    L   RS/G   RA/G   RunDiff
Yankees   95   67   5.28   4.40     143
Red Sox   93   69   4.45     123

That slim difference in runs scored per game works out to 11.34 runs over the course of the season (855.36 to 844.02).

The runs allowed difference is only 7.1 runs over 162 games (712.8 to 720.9).

Sports Illustrated (8 writers):

AL East: Yankees (8)
AL Central: Indians (8)
AL West: Astros (8)
AL WCs: Red Sox (7), Twins (4), Angels (3), Rangers, Athletics (1)

NL East: Nationals (8)
NL Central: Cubs (8)
NL West: Dodgers (8)
NL WCs: Cardinals (5), Diamondbacks (4), Brewers (4), Mets (2), Rockies (1)

ALCS: Yankees (5), Astros (3)
NLCS: Cubs (4), Nationals, Dodgers (2)

World Series: Cubs (3), Astros (2), Dodgers (1), Nationals (1), Yankees (1)

Cubs over Yankees in 7
Cubs over Yankees in 6
Dodgers over Yankees in 6
Nationals over Yankees in 7
Astros over Nationals in 7
Astros over Dodgers in 7
Cubs over Astros in 7
Yankees over Cubs in 6

Chicago Tribune (4 writers):

AL East: Yankees (4)
AL Central: Cleveland (4)
AL West: Astros (4)
AL WCs: Angels (4), Red Sox (3), Twins (1)

NL East: Nationals (4)
NL Central: Cubs (4)
NL West: Dodgers (3), Rockies (1)
NL WCs: Diamondbacks, Cardinals (2), Dodgers (1), Brewers (1), Giants (1), Mets (1)

AL Pennant: Astros (2), Cleveland (1), Yankees (1)
NL Pennant: Cubs (2), Dodgers (1), Nationals (1)

World Series: Astros (1), Cubs (1), Dodgers (1), Nationals (1)

AL MVP: Mike Trout (2), Jose Altuve (1), Aaron Judge (1)
NL MVP: Anthony Rizzo (2), Nolan Arenado (1), Kris Bryant (1)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (2), Corey Kluber (1), Justin Verlander (1)
NY Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg (3), Clayton Kershaw (1)

AL Rookie: Austin Hays (1), Willie Calhoun (1), Michael Kopech (1), Gleyber Torres (1)
NL Rookie: Roland Acuna (2), J.P. Crawford (1), Lewis Brinson (1)

AL Manager: Terry Francona (1), Bob Melvin (1), Mike Scioscia (1), Aaron Boone (1)
NL Manager: Dave Martinez (2), Bud Black (1), Mickey Callaway (1)

The Sporting News' Ryan Fagan posts "18 thoughts about baseball in 2018":

2. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge will not combine for 100 homers. For some reason, some people will see that as a failure. The Yankees will win the AL East, though. ...

4. Mike Trout will win the AL MVP award. I like going out on limbs. ...

8. The Nationals will not win the World Series in their final year with Bryce Harper ... I'm sure it will be avert-your-eyes painful. ...

14. The pitch clock ... will cause more than a few veterans to be highly annoyed. ...

15. Bryce Harper will be the 2018 NL MVP. And then he'll sign an insane contract (north of $400 million) somewhere other than D.C. next offseason, almost certainly before the calendar turns to 2019. ...

John Harper, New York Daily News:

There is almost nothing harder to predict than which teams will survive the crapshoot that is the postseason, but if I don't say so myself, I'm on a roll after calling the Astros over the Dodgers in this same space a year ago. Not to mention Jose Altuve as AL MVP. ...

So for what it's worth, I'm picking the Yankees to survive the AL playoffs, the Cubs to find that extra gear they were missing last year, and Aaron Boone to outmanage Joe Maddon in another classic World Series. ...

Top 10 Bold Predictions for the 2018 season. ...

1. Yankees Win Championship No. 28
2. Judge and Stanton Out-homer Mantle and Maris [116 to 115]
6. Trout, Altuve, Judge, Stanton Do Not Win AL MVP ...
8. DeGrom wins NL Cy Young/Sale AL
9. Boone Wins AL Manager of the Year ..

New York Post (7 writers):

Five writers pick the Yankees to win the East, with Ken Davidoff and Mike Puma picking the Red Sox.

Three of the seven picked Chris Sale as the AL Cy Young winner.

Only one writer picked the Yankees to win the AL pennant.

NorthJersey.com:

Pete Caldera, Yankees beat writer: Yankees (94-68) win the East, beat the Red Sox in the ALCS, and lose the World Series to the Dodgers. Chris Sale wins the AL Cy Young and Miguel Andujar of the Yankees is the AL Rookie of the Year.

Matt Ehalt, Mets beat writer: Yankees (95-67) win the East, but lose the World Series to the Dodgers. The Red Sox lose to the Astros in the ALDS. Sale wins the AL Cy Young.

Baltimore Sun:

AL East: The four writers are split, with Jon Meoli and Peter Schmuck picking the Red Sox and Eduardo A. Encina and Josh Land siding with the Yankees.

AL Pennant: Encina and Land pick the Yankees, while Schmuck says the Red Sox will defeat the Yankees on their way to the World Series.

World Series: Schmuck (I like this guy) says the Red Sox will defeat the Dodgers. Encina says Yankees over Dodgers and Land has the Yankees over the Cubs. Meoli picks the Nationals over the Dodgers.

Meoli picks J.D. Martinez as the AL MVP and Schmuck has Sale winning the AL Cy Young. Schmuck (well, not unreservedly) and Land have Giancarlo Stanton as the AL MVP. Encina picks Luis Severino to win the AL Cy Young.

A Common Refrain: Yankees Will Edge Past Red Sox In AL East

There is a consistent theme to almost all of these 2018 predictions: the Red Sox will finish in second place in the AL East.

Boston Globe:

Dan Shaughnessy: AL East: Yankees. ... AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels. ... ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox. ... World Series: Nationals over Yankees.

Tara Sullivan: AL East: Red Sox. ... AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Mariners. ... ALCS: [Cleveland] over Red Sox. ... World Series: [Cleveland] over Dodgers.

Peter Abraham: AL East: Red Sox. #SaleWinsCy ... AL Wild Cards: Twins, Yankees. #StantonStruggles ... ALCS: Red Sox over [Cleveland]. #PriceIsRight ... World Series: Dodgers over Red Sox. #KershawIsKing

Nick Cafardo: AL East: Yankees. Haven't heard one good reason why not. ... AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Twins. ... World Series: Yankees over Nationals. Not even the great Max Scherzer can tame Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

Alex Speier: AL East: Yankees. ... AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels. ... ALCS: [Cleveland] over Red Sox. ... World Series: Nationals over [Cleveland].

Chad Finn: AL East: Red Sox. ... AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Angels. Judge and Stanton could match Mantle and Maris's 117 homers in '61 ... World Series: Astros over Cubs.

Stanton and Judge could combine for 117 home runs? Yes, it is possible (like it's possible a team could go 162-0), but Finn is smarter than that. (After totaling 111 last year, they won't reach 100 this season.) And Cafardo has not heard "one good reason" why the Yankees could lose the division because he refuses to remove the pinstriped cotton balls from his ears. (Or, more likely, doesn't even realize they are in there.)

Grant Brisbee posted his predictions at SB Nation. He has the Red Sox finishing second to New York, but beating the A's in the Wild Card Game and losing the ALDS to the Yankees. Brisbee's World Series pick: Yankees over Cardinals. ... SB Nation's Red Sox preview is here.

Bleacher Report has the Yankees winning 100 games and the AL East, with the Red Sox close behind with 96 wins. A second Bleacher Report article also has the Yankees (95 wins) and Red Sox (90 wins) finishing 1-2.

Baseball America picks the Yankees to win the division, with Boston second (and grabbing the Wild Card). Here are the World Series predictions for the eight BA writers:

Cleveland over Nationals in 6
Cleveland over Dodgers in 7
Cubs over Cleveland in 6
Cubs over Astros in 7
Dodgers over Yankees in 6
Dodgers over Cleveland in 7
Yankees over Nationals in 6
Yankees over Cubs in 7

USA Today has the Yankees (93) and Red Sox (89) in the East. "It's the Yankees, but not by much. Would adding Martinez put the Red Sox over the top? Their fate may more likely hinge on health and performance of their starting pitchers."

The Sporting News says the Yankees will win the East, but Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge will not combine for 100 homers. (Smart pick on the dongs, TSN.)

Sports Illustrated picks the Nationals to beat the Yankees in the 2018 World Series. The Red Sox are listed #5 among 10 teams that SI believes could win it all:

The Red Sox will bring back most of the same team that won 93 games in 2017 and should definitely be in the postseason conversation, even if it's only a Wild Card spot. ... Even stronger than the Boston starting lineup is the Boston starting rotiation [sic]. David Price and Chris Sale need no introduction, and Rick Porcello is only a single season removed from winning the Cy Young in 2016. Knuckleballer Steven Wright was fantastic in 2016, but missed most of 2017 with a knee injury. His return should be a serious boost to the Red Sox on the mound (assuming he's 100% healthy). Drew Pomeranz also won 17 games in 2017, giving the Red Sox a lights out pitching staff. Closer Craig Kimbrel is also one of the best in the business. However, the Red Sox might have to go through their most iconic rivals to get to the World Series...

Rotochamp's projected standings are "a composite of Baseball Prospectus, Davenport, and FanGraphs". The Yankees are atop the division with 95 wins, with the second-place Red Sox at 92.

I don't know what COED is, but it also has the Yankees-Red Sox atop the AL East.

Predictions For 2018: Lindy's & Athlon

Two more baseball annuals are out.

Lindy's

Yankees
Red Sox (WC)
Blue Jays
Rays
Orioles

World Series: Dodgers versus Yankees

MVP: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland; Corey Seager, Dodgers
Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Astros; Carlos Martinez, Cardinals
Rookie: Francisco Mejia, Cleveland; Ronald Acuna, Atlanta
Rookie Pitcher: Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Walker Buehler, Dodgers
Manager: Mike Scioscia, Angels; Dave Roberts, Dodgers

Capsules

Red Sox

The road to the East title still goes through Boston. The Red Sox, who have won the division the past two seasons, have the requisite 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation (Chris Sale and David Price) to be formidable in playoff series. It's a good situation for new manager Alex Cora.

Yankees

The new look Bronx Bombers will be one of the sport's focal points this summer with Giancarlo Stanton joining Aaron Judge in a power-packed lineup. The pitching is first-rate, too; they yielded the second fewest runs in the American League last season.

Scouts

Red Sox

Cora played in Boston. That should give him a good idea of what it takes to manager there, but it is not enough. He's going to have a tough time this year. He's smart and will learn, and be better in his second year. ... The first thing Cora has to do is get Pedroia on his side. Pedroia runs that clubhouse. Farrell lost Pedroia and was finished from there on out. ... They really missed Big Papi last year. Nobody is that lineup really hit for power. You can't win playing 81 games in that ballpark with a bunch of Judy hitters. ... Bogaerts should do some damage in that park. He hits too many grounders. Pull the ball in the air; and he'll get 50 doubles. ... Price's command was terrible last year. He used to throw strikes with everything, but only the fastball worked for him.

Yankees

Things must hve really gotten bad in the clubhouse for Cashman to fire Girardi. He's an uptight guy, but he won and did a good job with that club. ... I get that Boone's a great guy and relates well to people, but there's more to the job than that. ... It's the type of lineup that can go into a funk without warning for a week or so because everyone is striking out.

Athlon Sports

Yankees
Red Sox (WC)
Blue Jays
Orioles
Rays

ALCS: Astros over Yankees
NLCS: Nationals over Cubs
World Series: Astros over Nationals

MVP: Mike Trout, Angels (Giancarlo Stanton #2, Aaron Judge #6, Mookie Betts #7, Didi Gregorius #9); Bryce Harper, Nationals
Cy Young: Chris Sale, Red Sox (Luis Severino #3); Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Rookie: Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Ronald Acuna, Atlanta

Scouts

Red Sox

The Yankees, on paper, have passed them. ... You don't know what you'll get from David Price with that elbow. And that market is all wrong for him. I bet he wishes he'd signed somewhere else, but he does have the chance to opt out after the season. ... Their young core is impressive. Andrew Benintendi has a lot of ceiling left, Jackie Bradley Jr. is a fabulous defender, and Mookie Betts can do it all. I'm excited to see Rafael Devers for a full year. He's got great hands at the plate, he plays loose, and he knows the strike zone.

Yankees

They're primed to make a deep run. There's nowhere for a pitcher to breathe against that lineup. ... Stanton and Judge can be pitched to; like most big guys, they have a hole up and in. ... But only the best of the best have the command to consistently exploit that weakness, and of course those guys hammer mistakes. I have a lot of confidence in Luis Severino; he's found his footing now, and he'll be one of the best pitchers in the game for the next decade.

Final Analysis

Red Sox

Two years ago, after a season that saw every New York regular post a below-average OPS, it appeared the Red Sox would dominate their rivals for at least five years. Instead, the Yankees once again look ready to rule, and it's fair to wonder if the Red Sox can keep pace. ... If they don't, we'll be wondering how this all fell apart so quickly.

Street & Smith's Likes The Yankees In 2018

The first baseball preview magazine of the spring is out. Here are some of the things that Street & Smith's has to say about the 2018 Red Sox and the Yankees:

Brief Comments

Red Sox: "A three-peat in the AL East won't be easy. Especially if injuries hit key players again. You can never count out the Red Sox, though, especially with such a deep farm system."

Yankees: "There's no reason this team can't be the best in the majors in 2018 and for years to come. All the ingredients are there. Adding superstar slugger Giancarlo Stanton ... was just the icing on the cake."

AL East Prediction (& Postseason And Awards)

Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Rays

WC: Twins over Red Sox / Diamondbacks over Cardinals
ALDS: Astros over Twins / Yankees over Cleveland
ALCS: Yankees over Astros
NLDS: Nationals over Diamondbacks / Dodgers over Cubs
NLCS: Nationals over Dodgers
World Series: Yankees over Nationals

MVP: Carlos Correa, Astros / Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Astros / Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Rookie: Willie Calhoun, Rangers / Ronald Acuna, Atlanta
Manager: Aaron Boone, Yankees / Dave Martinez, Nationals

Team Reports

Red Sox:

The Red Sox have a tremendous nucleus of talent, both experienced ... and youthful ... They have a hefty payroll, a deep farm system and an aggressive team president, Dave Dombrowski, who has shown the willingness to take risks in order to build a potential champion.

So, what could possibly go wrong for [manager Alex] Cora and the Red Sox in 2018?

Despite his reputation of being a smart baseball man and a people person, the 42-year-old Cora is inheriting a team of high-paid veterans, and it's his charge to make sure they are all working together. That didn't appear to be the case under [John] Farrell, who had to deal with several controversies during his time with the Red Sox ...

Yankees:

The New York Yankees didn't simply announce that they were back.

They shouted it from Bronx rooftops in 2017 - and it was loudly and clearly heard throughout baseball ... And it became eardrum-piercing this winter.

The [Stanton] trade doesn't just shift the balance of power in the A.L. East, it topples it.

An Opposing Scout's View

Red Sox:

On paper, they still have a good team, but I don't think it's a championship-quality team unless they add more. They need one more forceful bat and their starting pitching needs to be as good as it is on the back of their baseball cards, especially David Price and Rick Porcello. ... [Dustin] Pedroia gives you leadership ... The presence is still there, but others need to step up. Their shortstop [Xander Bogaerts] needs to do that. ... That outfield has speed, athleticism and produces offensively in meaningful ways.

Yankees:

It's a good team. It's a really good team. I saw it coming in their minors. I saw Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird, Chance Adams, who people aren't talking about yet but could be a top-end [starting pitcher]. They've done a great job with development. ... Aaron Boone has all the pluses. A great baseball guy, great baseball family, knows the game. But none of that may play into it, because someone else may be pulling all the strings. ... Judge has shown me he can make adjustments, and not just one time. He'll keep making adjustments to get better.

Bottom Line

Red Sox:

There's no reason this team shouldn't contend, but there is a sense the Red Sox have significantly fallen behind New York, Houston and Cleveland in the A.L. hierarchy. If their veterans maintain consistency and the young players continue to improve, however, there should be more playoff baseball in Boston this year.

Yankees:

There are some excellent clubs in the A.L., including the most recent pennant winners in Houston and Cleveland. But the addition of Stanton could make the Yankees the favorite to represent the league in the Fall Classic - this season and beyond.

Red Sox Obviously Doomed As Long As Judge Wears Pinstripes

Jesus. It's been only a few short years since the retirement of The Most Awesome Derek Jeter, but the sports media apparently cannot exist unless it has a Yankees player to constantly hold up as a shining example of how amazing and humble and wonderful and gifted and humble a single human being can be.

I can only hope Aaron Judge - who is quite a bit taller than the average player, did you know that? - falls flat on his ugly mug and flames out in a historic blaze of strikeouts or maybe somehow ends up playing for another team somewhere no one cares about (Milwaukee?), because, otherwise, it's gonna be a seriously long fucking slog for the many years he will play for our main rival.

ESPN frames the Red Sox's entire winter as a struggle to do what they can to counter The Judge Effect. (Because we know from history that Judge will only get better and better. He cannot possibly regress.) From two ESPN reports (Scott Lauber on the Red Sox and Andrew Marchand on the Yankees):

Boston Red Sox: Will they turn the power back on?

Home runs are en vogue again, but the Red Sox missed the memo. In the first year of their post-David Ortiz era, they hit only 168 homers, fewest in the American League. Of the 74 players who hit at least 25 homers, none were part of the Red Sox's lineup. Deposed manager John Farrell used seven different players in the cleanup spot, a testament to the fact that the team lacked a true middle-of-the-order power threat. As a result, the Sox scored 785 runs, a drop-off of 103 runs from 2016.

It's little wonder, then, that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has already made several public declarations that he'll be shopping for offense this winter. Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez are the top names on the free-agent market, and they would fit into the Red Sox's lineup as either a first baseman or designated hitter, respectively. And then there's the really big fish: Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who is potentially available via a trade now that Derek Jeter is running things in South Florida. As the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry heats up once again, it would be hard for Boston to find a more suitable counter to Aaron Judge.

Hey, look! We even got a Jeter reference in there!

New York Yankees: Will it really be a quiet offseason?

This winter is one that might be looked upon as a quiet one for the Yankees, except for the fact they will add a new manager, could add the "Babe Ruth of Japan" and may make a trade or two. Yankees GM Brian Cashman is looking for an "A.J. Hinch-type" to connect with the team's young players better than Joe Girardi could. Shohei Otani, the 23-year-old pitcher/outfielder, wants to come to the United States. As it stands now, if he does, he will not receive a huge contract because of the new collective bargaining agreement rules. That means the Yankees could have as good a chance as anyone to land him. Otani could be a sixth starter for the Yankees, while DHing and playing some outfield.

The Yankees will look to re-sign CC Sabathia, but for far less than the $25 million that the big lefty made in 2017. They will talk with Todd Frazier's representatives, but with Chase Headley already signed for 2018 it is unclear how much they will offer Frazier to play third. The Yankees could look to trade Headley, Starlin Castro and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Yes, there are likely many teams lining up for the privilege of grabbing Ellsbury, who has posted OPS+s of 87, 88, and 97 over the last three seasons and is due to be paid $63.3 million through 2020. Check out his total bases over the last two seasons as compared to 2011, the season that made the Yankees so excited to sign him as a free agent.

              GMS     PA    TB
2011          158    732   364
2016-17       260   1035   349

Sign me up!

The Start Of The Off-Season

The Red Sox will officially announce that Alex Cora is the team's new manager tomorrow. And since the end of the World Series, Cora has assisted in assembling his coaches:

Bench Coach: Ron Roenicke
1B Coach: Tom Goodwin
3B Coach: Carlos Febles
Hitting Coach: Tim Hyers
Assistant Hitting Coach: Andy Barkett

Dana LeVangie returns as the bullpen coach. The team has yet to hire a pitching coach.

Roenicke managed the San Antonio Missions (AA) to the Texas League Championship in 1997; Cora, then 21, was a shortstop and the second-youngest player on the team. The 2011 Brewers, with Roenicke in his first season as a major league manager, won a franchise-best 96 games. The Providence Journal states that, during his time with Milwaukee, Roenicke was known "for his analytical bend, including aggressive shifting on the infield".

Febles, after a six-year career with the Royals, worked as a hitting coach for three Red Sox minor league teams from 2007-10. He then managed the Lowell Spinners (2011), Greenville Drive (2012-13), Salem Red Sox (2014-15), and Portland Sea Dogs (2016-17). During those years, Febles had plenty of experience working with and overseeing the maturation of several of the Red Sox's young players, including Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts, and Rafael Devers.

For Hyers, this job represents a return to the Red Sox. He was an area scout from 2009-12, then served as the team's minor league hitting coordinator from 2013-15. (He also filled in as interim hitting coach during 2014 after Greg Colbrunn suffered a brain hemorrhage.) For the past two seasons, he was the Dodgers' assistant hitting coach.

Barkett has managed in the minors and worked as an assistant hitting coordinator for both the Pirates and Marlins.

Also: Tony LaRussa has joined the Red Sox front office as a vice president and special assistant to the president of baseball operations, a position newly created by Dave Dombrowski, who worked with LaRussa with the White Sox. This report states LaRussa "will assist with player development and serve as a consultant to the major and minor league coaching staffs, including rookie manager Alex Cora".

Peter Gammons wrote (without offering any examples or evidence):

In many ways, [hiring Alex Cora] is a seismic shift for the Red Sox, who now must deal with the reality that the Yankees have become the Theo Epstein Red Sox and may be a major power for the next few years as Boston faces tough, critical decisions between now and 2019 to avoid the American League East resembling what it was from 1996-2001.

Gammons does not employ an editor at his website, so we get both run-on and partial sentences, like this: "But the wires that bound this franchise from 2004-2013 are frayed, requiring."

Also, when will people stop writing things like: "[T]hese are not your Mike Higgins Red Sox." ... For the record, Higgins last sat in a Red Sox dugout 55 years ago, when Gammons was still a teenager. A few things have happened since then.

Old Hickory is not the only writer touting the Yankees as the team to beat in 2018.

In mid-October, John Harper of the Daily News wrote that the simple act of Boston firing John Farrell meant the Yankees had overtaken the Red Sox as the AL East favourite. That made little sense, of course - and now that the Yankees will also have a new manager for 2018, it makes zero sense. From Harper's article:

"It's hard to win without power, and the Yankees have it while the Red Sox are a little short," was the way a major-league scout put it on Wednesday. "Boston has some good pieces but they do need a thumper to replace Ortiz. I'd rather have the Yankees' kids. They're going to put up some big home-run numbers in the coming years. And they have better young pitching." ...

[T]he Sox are short on pitching depth ... and the Sox don't have any phenoms immediately on the horizon.

Remember, they traded two blue-chip prospects, infielder Yoan Moncada and pitcher Michael Kopech, in the deal with the White Sox last winter, and while [Chris] Sale certainly lived up to expectations, it was a win-now trade that didn't produce a championship, while significantly weakening the Red Sox farm system. ...

As the scout said, young power-hitting is the area where the Yankees are separating themselves. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird ... form the most formidable age 25-or-younger offensive trio in baseball. ...

All of which is a way of saying that, on the matter of young stars, things have changed more quickly between the Yankees and Red Sox than anyone would have anticipated.

A new manager in Boston isn't going to change the fact that it feels like the Sox, though two games better this season, are already trailing the Yankees going into 2018.

A little later in October, the Post's Joel Sherman offered "a peek at Yankees' potentially devastating 2018 rotation" and advised how the Yankees can finish 2018 in "The Canyon Of Heroes":

The 2017 Yankees came faster and went further than expected, reaching Game 7 of the ALCS. Their roster and farm system and future payroll are lined up to produce even better teams. But the step from promise to a parade is perilous. ...

[U]nlike 2017 next spring training is going to begin with the Yanks in their historically familiar position as the hunted, as a team with the overbearing expectations. ...

Joe Girardi talked about "mental growth" after his Yankees were eliminated by the Astros. ... What earmarked the dynastic Yankees that Girardi was part of as a player was that even as fame and fortune and pressure mounted for that group, hunger to win and unity to do so together never wavered. Their mental toughness and physical durability was special.

Most of ESPN's Dan Szymborski's article on early ZiPS projections for 2018 is behind a paywall, but the AL East is visible: