Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2011. Show all posts

April 14, 2011

Range Of 2011 Wins Through Random Chance: 68 To 117

I enjoy the pre-season simulations/projections that SG runs over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, and I have linked to them in recent years.

He also ran the rest of the season depending on the different scenarios of the outcome of the recent series against the Yankees. After Boston won two of the three games, the projections were a dead heat:
           W      L
Red Sox   91.4   70.6
Yankees   91.3   70.7
These simulations always remind me of Bill James's "2,000 Years of Willie Mays", which I wrote about seven (!?!) years ago. James explains that a player could hit .330 one year and .260 the next (with a corresponding drop in home runs and RBI), and while media and fans would concoct all sorts of possible reasons for the slump, it could have happened simply because of bad luck. I have always been fascinated by this stuff.

With the Red Sox off to such a dismal start, I wondered what the worst seasons were of the thousands that SG ran. How many games did they win in a year in which all the breaks went against them? How many did they win when everything went right?

SG sent me some information from the 5,000 seasons he ran through Diamond Mind -- and through nothing but random chance, Boston's win totals ranged from 117 to 68!

The 2011 Simulated Red Sox finished at or under .500 in 100 of the 5,000 seasons (2%).
68-94 -  1 season
72-90 -  2 seasons
73-89 -  1 season
74-88 -  1 season
76-86 -  7 seasons
77-85 -  8 seasons
78-84 - 14 seasons
79-83 - 12 seasons 
80-82 - 17 seasons 
81-81 - 37 seasons
They won 100+ games in 1,057 seasons (21.1%). The best seasons:
117-45 -  1 season
114-48 -  5 seasons
113-49 -  2 seasons
112-50 - 11 seasons
111-51 - 12 seasons
110-52 - 14 seasons
The Yankees' best seasons were 114 wins (once), 113 (three times) and 112 (three times). Their lowest win total was 65. They were .500 and below in 250 of 5,000 (5%) seasons and they won 100+ games in 677 seasons (13.5%).

The average season for both teams:
           W      L
Red Sox  94.4   67.6
Yankees  92.4   69.6

March 31, 2011

RLYW Projection Outblow

SG, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog (my bold):
[I]t's time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout. The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2011 season multiple times through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator available. ...

Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. ... Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match actual 2011 playing time. ... We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. ... These are not meant to tell you how the season is going to play out. ... These are the averages of hundreds of thousands of simulated seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once. ...
SG further explains, using the Tigers as an example:
One thing I need to note, since it may not be obvious. Those standings are NOT saying the Tigers are going to win the AL Central with 84.6 wins. They are saying the Tigers projected to win the AL Central most frequently (31.2% of the time) and that they averaged 84.6 wins. Those are two separate things. In order to actually win the division, the AL Central winner had to win 90 games on average.
The winner of the AL East averaged 98 wins. The AL wild card winner averaged 92 wins.

While SG posted the projections for all six divisions, I'm including only the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays here.

Bill James Edition
           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   95.2  66.8  796  667  40.0%  19.8%  59.7%   6.2  -22  -77
Yankees   94.2  67.8  817  698  36.4%  20.4%  56.9%  -0.8  -42    5
Rays      87.3  74.7  775  703  14.8%  14.9%  29.7%  -8.7  -27   54
CAIRO
           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   95.8  66.2  826  684  42.8%  18.7%  61.5%   6.8    8  -60
Yankees   93.1  68.9  821  713  31.7%  19.4%  51.1%  -1.9  -38   20
Rays      87.6  74.4  734  660  17.8%  14.9%  32.7%  -8.4  -68   11
Marcel
           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   91.6  70.4  841  734  40.0%  14.4%  54.4%   2.6   23  -10
Yankees   89.0  73.0  785  711  28.5%  14.1%  42.5%  -6.0  -74   18
Rays      85.3  76.7  747  699  19.2%  11.5%  30.7% -10.7  -55   50
Oliver
           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   95.4  66.6  813  672  46.5%  18.3%  64.8%   6.4   -5  -72
Yankees   93.5  68.5  801  682  36.6%  19.1%  55.7%  -1.5  -58  -11
Rays      83.2  78.8  787  759  10.7%  10.6%  21.3% -12.8  -15  110
PECOTA
           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   94.1  67.9  809  681  41.1%  17.7%  58.8%   5.1   -9  -63
Yankees   92.1  69.9  835  730  31.0%  18.1%  49.0%  -2.9  -24   37
Rays      87.0  75.0  765  700  17.5%  15.0%  32.5%  -9.0  -37   51
Diamond Mind (cumulative)
           W     L     RS   RA   Div    WC     PL    W+/-  RS+/-RA+/-
Red Sox   94.4  67.6  817  687  42.1%  17.8%  59.8%   5.4   -1  -57
Yankees   92.4  69.6  812  707  32.8%  18.2%  51.0%  -2.6  -47   14
Rays      86.1  75.9  762  704  16.0%  13.4%  29.4%  -9.9  -40   55
SG also offers general comments on each team, and why they might be better (or worse) than projected.

And pie charts!

March 30, 2011

ESPN: Red Sox Overwhelming Favourites to Win World Series

Will the Red Sox be playing in the 2011 World Series? Over at ESPN, 42 of its 45 pundits say Yes!

45 of 45 (100%) pick the Red Sox to win the AL East
42 of 45 (93%) pick the Red Sox to win the AL pennant
33 of 45 (73%) pick the Red Sox to win the World Series
                     AL EAST   WILD CARD   WORLD SERIES
Marty Bernosk        Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Aaron Boone          Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Steve Berthiaume     Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Braves
Dave Cameron         Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Braves
Jim Caple            Red Sox   Rays        White Sox over Phillies
Jason Churchill      Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Braves
Tristan Cockcroft    Red Sox   Yankees     Phillies over Yankees
Jerry Crasnick       Red Sox   Yankees     Braves over Red Sox
Richard Durrett      Red Sox   Yankees     Phillies over Red Sox
Gordon Edes          Red Sox   Tigers      Red Sox over Phillies
Doug Glanville       Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Jason Grey           Red Sox   Rays        Red Sox over Giants
Steve Goldman        Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Pedro Gomez          Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Braves
Orel Hershiser       Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Tony Jackson         Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Giants
Eric Karabell        Red Sox   Rays        Phillies over Rays
Jonah Keri           Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Brewers
John Kruk            Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Braves
David Kull           Red Sox   Yankees     Rockies over Red Sox
Tim Kurkjian         Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Keith Law            Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Braves
Andrew Marchand      Red Sox   Yankees     Phillies over Red Sox
Joe McDonald         Red Sox   Blue Jays   Red Sox over Phillies
Matt Meyers          Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Braves
Mark Mulder          Red Sox   A's         Phillies over Red Sox
Amy K. Nelson        Red Sox   A's         Braves over Red Sox
Dave O'Brien         Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Buster Olney         Red Sox   Yankees     Giants over Red Sox
Doug Padilla         Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Nick Pietruszkiewicz Red Sox   Yankees     Phillies over Red Sox
Karl Ravech          Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Braves
Nate Ravitz          Red Sox   Rays        Red Sox over Phillies
Mark Saxon           Red Sox   Rangers     Red Sox over Phillies
David Schoenfield    Red Sox   A's         Red Sox over Braves
Jon Sciambi          Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Dan Shulman          Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Braves
Mark Simon           Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Jayson Stark         Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Rick Sutcliffe       Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Matt Szefc           Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Peter Pascarelli     Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Giants
Bobby Valentine      Red Sox   Yankees     Phillies over Red Sox
Dave Winfield        Red Sox   Yankees     Red Sox over Phillies
Gene Wojciechowski   Red Sox   Tigers      Red Sox over Phillies
Other ESPN picks:

Cy Young Award
Jon Lester        22
Justin Verlander   7
Felix Hernandez    5
CC Sabathia        5
David Price        4
Clay Buchholz      1
Gio Gonzalez       1
Most Valuable Player
Adrian Gonzalez   15
Robinson Cano     12
Miguel Cabrera     4
Evan Longoria      4
Carl Crawford      3
Alex Rodrguez      3
Kevin Youkilis     2
Josh Hamilton      1
Mark Teixeira      1
Jayson Stark, on the Red Sox:
[T]hey finished second in the big leagues in runs scored last year -- and that was before they went out this winter and added Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. So how good can this team be? ...

"Everyone in Major League Baseball has some kind of fatal weakness -- except the Red Sox," said the same GM who rated the Phillies the NL's best. "I mean, what's their weakness -- that they're not going to crush left-handed pitching? If that's the worst thing people can pick out, they're in a good place.

"They should have really good starting pitching. They should have a really good bullpen. They've got speed and power. So every other team out there has way more significant holes than they do. Look, things can always go wrong. Lester could go down. Crawford could go down. If that happens, it's a different story. But we're at the starting line. And I don't see how you can look at that team and not think they're a huge favorite."

Well, you know what? I don't, either.

They're better than the Phillies. They're better than the Yankees. They're better than the Rangers. They're better than everyone ...

SI Picks Red Sox To Win 100 Games, 3rd World Series In 8 Years

The Phillies' starting rotation may be on the cover, but Sports Illustrated's MLB Preview predicts the Red Sox will be the toast of baseball in 2011, winning the AL East with a 100-62 record, and steamrolling past the A's, Twins, and Giants on their way to their third World Series title in eight years.

SI also picks Carl Crawford as the AL MVP and Jon Lester as the Cy Young winner. SI has the Yankees winning the wild card (finishing eight games out) and getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs by Minnesota.

Some predictions ("that will be wrong") from Fangraphs' Dave Cameron:
Playoff Teams (AL): Boston-Chicago-Texas-New York
Playoff Teams (NL): Atlanta-Cincinnati-Colorado-Philadelphia
World Series: Boston over Atlanta

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
AL Position Player WAR Leader: Joe Mauer
NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
NL Position Player WAR Leader: Troy Tulowitzki

AL Cy Young: Jon Lester
AL Pitcher WAR Leader: Felix Hernandez
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
NL Pitcher WAR Leader: Josh Johnson
Example
Adrian Gonzalez says his spring went perfectly.

The Red Sox added catcher Mike McKenry to their 40-man roster, grabbing the 26-year-old minor leaguer from Colorado for pitcher Daniel Turpen. McKenry hit .265/.328/.424 in AAA last year, and was 0-for-8 as a September call-up. Catcher Mark Wagner was designated for assignment.

The Red Sox left Fort Myers yesterday and will play an exhibition game in Houston tonight. Josh Beckett gets the ball tonight; Dennys Reyes, Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard and Bobby Jenks are expected to pitch one inning each.

Infielder Nate Spears will not make the Opening Day roster, but he has had a great spring, hitting .290/.389/.403 in a team-leading 72 PAs. He will be with the team for the Astros series.
It's going to be the first time I've worn a suit on a plane. ... I was just coming into camp trying to make Tito actually know my name. As camp went along, he was calling me "Kid" and now he's calling me "Spearsy".
The time of Saturday's game in Texas has been moved to 8:15.
Example
Mike Sweeney hit 83 home runs in 2003.

In my previous life as a member of the 19th Century Baltimore Orioles, I was known as "Smallpox Danny", a righteous spiker of third basemen and tireless drinker of corn liquor.

Headline of the Day:

March 29, 2011

Hardball Times: Red Sox Will Win World Series

The Hardball Times staff have posted their 2011 predictions. Some extremely relevant parts are as follows:

AL EAST
                      1st    2nd    3rd    4th    5th
Derek Ambrosino       BOS    NYY    TOR    TB     BAL
John Barten           BOS    TB     NYY    TOR    BAL
Vince Caramela        NYY    BOS    TB     TOR    BAL
Mike Clark            NYY    BOS    TOR    BAL    TB
David Gassko          BOS    NYY    TB     TOR    BAL
Jeffrey Gross         BOS    TB     TOR    NYY    BAL
Jonathan Halket       BOS    NYY    TB     BAL    TOR
Chris Jaffe           NYY    TB     BOS    TOR    BAL
Brad Johnson          BOS    TB     NYY    TOR    BAL
Mat Kovach            TB     NYY    BOS    TOR    BAL
Kevin Lai             BOS    TB     NYY    TOR    BAL
Max Marchi            TB     TOR    NYY    BOS    BAL
Bruce Markusen        BOS    NYY    TB     BAL    TOR
Rory Paap             BOS    TB     NYY    TOR    BAL
Ben Pritchett         BOS    NYY    TOR    TB     BAL
Josh Shepardson       BOS    TB     NYY    TOR    BAL
Greg Simons           BOS    NYY    TB     TOR    BAL
Paul Singman          BOS    TOR    NYY    TB     BAL
Dave Studeman         BOS    NYY    TB     TOR    BAL
Paul Francis Sullivan BOS    NYY    TB     TOR    BAL
Steve Treder          BOS    TB     NYY    TOR    BAL
David Wade            BOS    NYY    TB     TOR    BAL

AL WILD CARD/AWARDS
                  WC     MVP        Cy Young      ROY
Derek Ambrosino   NYY    Cabrera    Lester        Pineda
John Barten       TB     Longoria   Verlander     McGee
Vince Caramela    BOS    Rodriguez  Anderson      Hellickson
Mike Clark        BOS    Mauer      Pavano        Hellickson
David Gassko      NYY    AGonzalez  Lester        Hellickson
Jeffrey Gross     TB     Longoria   Verlander     Pineda
Jonathan Halket   NYY    AGonzalez  Verlander     Hellickson
Chris Jaffe       TB     Rodriguez  Sabathia      N/A
Brad Johnson      TB     AGonzalez  Lester        Pineda
Mat Kovach        KC     Santana    Wilson        Hellickson
Kevin Lai         TB     Longoria   Lester        Ackley
Max Marchi        TOR    Suzuki     Price         N/A
Bruce Markusen    NYY    Rodriguez  Lester        Ackley
Rory Paap         TB     AGonzalez  Hernandez     Hellickson
Ben Pritchett     NYY    Cabrera    Lester        Hellickson
Josh Shepardson   TB     Longoria   Liriano       McGee
Greg Simons       NYY    Cabrera    Verlander     McGee
Paul Singman      TOR    Bautista   Gio Gonzalez  Hellickson
Dave Studeman     NYY    Hamilton   Hernandez     Hellickson
Paul Francis
   Sullivan       NYY    Youkilis   Haren         Hellickson
Steve Treder      TB     Longoria   Lester        Hellickson
David Wade        NYY    AGonzalez  Verlander     Hellickson

WORLD SERIES
Derek Ambrosino         Red Sox over Phillies
John Barten             Red Sox over Rockies
Vince Caramela          Yankees over Rockies
Mike Clark              Atlanta over Twins
David Gassko            Phillies over Red Sox
Jeffrey Gross           Atlanta over Rays
Jonathan Halket         Red Sox over Atlanta
Chris Jaffe             Dodgers over Rays
Brad Johnson            Rays over Phillies
Mat Kovach              Indians over Reds
Kevin Lai               Red Sox over Phillies
Max Marchi              Rays over Atlanta
Bruce Markusen          Atlanta over A's
Rory Paap               Red Sox over Giants
Ben Pritchett           Brewers over Red Sox
Josh Shepardson         Red Sox over Atlanta
Greg Simons             Tigers over Atlanta
Paul Singman            Atlanta over Red Sox
Dave Studeman           Giants over Red Sox
Paul Francis Sullivan   Phillies over Angels
Steve Treder            Rays over Giants
David Wade              Red Sox over Phillies

Maple Street Press - Red Sox and Yankees 2011 Annuals

The Maple Street Press annuals are essential reading for any baseball fan. MSP strives to "publish high quality, authoritative, analytical, and insightful sports publications ... [and] provide insight into various aspects of sports and debunk commonly held beliefs and thoughts".

Unlike the spring preview magazines from Lindy's, Athlon, and The Sporting News, etc., which offer perhaps four pages per team, MSP devotes 128 AD-FREE pages per team -- for $9.99*, only a few dollars more than those other magazines.

* The price on my copies of the Red Sox and Yankees annuals, which I received from Cecilia Tan, who edited the Yankees edition, is $12.99, but the MSP website lists them at $9.99.

As I noted in my post about the 2010 Annual, I am not so much writing a review as pointing out some highlights and hopefully enticing you to run out right now and buy the damn thing.

The Globe's Chad Finn leads off the Red Sox Annual with a solid overview of the 2010-11 winter and how the roster shapes up for the coming season. Finn rightly criticizes the "snide and snarky skepticism" of some members of the Boston media "who measure a team's commitment to winning solely by its payroll". Thankfully, we all have many alternate places to get more thoughtful information.

Finn tabs first baseman Adrian Gonzalez "the right player at the right time" and says that while the cost in prospects to obtain him was high (not to mention his soon-to-be-announced contract extension), "it's still hard to believe that this deal is one the Red Sox will ever regret". After Boston went 22-26 in one-run games last year (and 6-12 in extra innings), Finn sees Dan Wheeler as "arguably [Theo Epstein's] shrewdest signing of the off-season".

WEEI's Alex Speier asks whether the team's extravagant spending on Crawford and Gonzalez constitutes a "radical shift" from the team's previous way of doing business.

Two articles highlight the hitting history (and future expectations) of Crawford and Gonzalez. Dave Cameron (Fangraphs) writes that Crawford ranks 6th among all MLB players in WAR (Wins Above Replacement, which considers batting, fielding and baserunning) over the last two seasons. Only Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Mauer, and Chase Utley have contributed more to their team's success than Crawford.

Finn reports, in writing about how Gonzalez should wear out the Wall, that Gonzalez hit .516 with a 1.479 OPS on his 95 fly balls to left field at pitcher-friendly Petco Park last year. Paul Swydan follows that up with an in-depth examination of Gonzalez's career, offering clear evidence why the Red Sox front office has lusted after Gonzalez for nearly a decade. In terms of stoking anticipation for 2011, it's the highlight of the magazine.

Swydan reveals how playing half his games in San Diego's Petco Park (where from 2008-2010, batters hit only .234) has depressed AG's numbers, yet his production is still among the best in baseball over the past three years. Gonzalez's .507 career slugging percentage ranks 85th all-time, and among the top 100 sluggers in baseball history, Gonzalez has the largest differential in home/road slugging -- by an incredibly large margin.
                 Slugging Percentage    
                 Career  Home   Road    Diff
Adrian Gonzalez   .507   .440   .568   -.128
Joe DiMaggio      .579   .546   .610   -.064
Mike Piazza       .545   .515   .572   -.057
Justin Morneau    .511   .488   .533   -.045
Eddie Matthews    .509   .488   .529   -.041
Bill Terry        .506   .487   .525   -.038
Travis Hafner     .517   .501   .533   -.032
Lou Gehrig        .632   .620   .644   -.024
* - Is any player as underrated as Gehrig? (Other than maybe Stan Musial.) Only three players in baseball history have a career slugging as high as Gehrig's home mark of .620 (Ruth, Williams, Pujols (and Gehrig himself, of course)) and it is still "low" enough to make the comparison to his road slugging the 8th largest differential of all-time.

Swydan includes a graphic that overlays Gonzalez's batted balls into Petco's outfield in 2010 onto the dimensions of Fenway Park. While any precise predictions made from this data would be highly suspect -- because of the numerous variables involved -- the graphics suggest that approximately 19 of Gonzalez's Petco flyouts would have been home runs at Fenway (most of them landing in the Monster Seats).

David Laurila has Q&As with John Lackey and Jose Iglesias; Brandon Magee summarizes the minor league system; Art Martone looks back at 1986; and Bill Nowlin details the Red Sox's 1911 cross-country spring training tour.
Example
Cecilia Tan's introduction sets the tone:
"It was largely a winter of discontent for Yankees fans, and probably the front office too. ...

"[T]here is no denying that the Yankees were confident they would land [Cliff] Lee to shore up a rotation that last year had more soft spots than a rotten tomato, and that it was a disappointing blow when he didn't sign. ... And there is also no denying the envy with which New Yorkers looked north, where Boston fans were gleefully gloating about what they found in their Christmas stockings: Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.

"Which isn't to say the Yankees did nothing. ... [stuff they did] ... If that all sounds like small potatoes, well, it is. ... [But] Cashman is still on the hunt ... The farm system is well stocked with trading chips ... Although Boston is strengthened, Tampa Bay looks weaker. It's going to be a long summer in baseball's toughest division, but then, it always is."
Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger has a lengthy and even-handed rumination over the good, bad and ugly of the Yankees 2010 season and the past winter.

There are features on Robinson Cano, hitting coach Kevin Long, the 2010 draft, and 6'8", 22-year-old pitching prospect Dellin Betances (who went to high school in Brooklyn).

David Golebiewski uses pitchf/x data to get a better assessment of how the starting rotation performed last year; David Laurila interviews Phil Hughes and ambidextrous pitcher Pat Venditte; and just like the Red Sox edition, there is an overview of every team in the farm system and a list of the top 10 prospects.

Alan Nathan attempts to uncover the truth behind Mickey Mantle's infamous home run at Washington's Griffith Stadium on April 17, 1953, a "tape measure" blast that as gone down in history as traveling 565 feet.

And since this is the Yankees, there are several articles on the team's history: recaps of all 13 MVP winners, Charlie Keller's performance in the 1941 World Series (the first time Brooklyn and New York tangled in the Fall Classic), and an excerpt from a book on the 1921 season, with the Yankees clinching the pennant during the season-ending series against Cleveland.

Both the Red Sox and Yankees annuals have full-colour pages on each of the expected starters (lineup and rotation), showing spray zones, hit zones, pitch zones, and various statistical splits.

In addition to these two editions, MSP also published 2011 annuals for the Twins, Tigers, Rangers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Mets, Reds, Brewers, and Atlanta.

March 27, 2011

All Six Globe Writers Pick Sox To Win Pennant

The Globe published its 2011 Baseball Preview today. Its five baseball writers make their picks:

Dan Shaughnessy
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees (wc), Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays
Other divisions: Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Brewers, Giants, Atlanta (wc)
World Series: Giants over Red Sox

Bob Ryan
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees (wc), Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles
Other divisions: Tigers, Athletics, Phillies, Cubs, Rockies, Atlanta (wc)
World Series: Red Sox over Phillies

Peter Abraham
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays
Other Divisions: Twins, Athletics, White Sox (wc), Phillies, Reds, Rockies, Giants (wc)
World Series: Phillies over Red Sox

Michael Vega
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays
Other divisions: Tigers, Rangers, [no AL wild card listed], Phillies, Cardinals, Giants, Atlanta (wc)
World Series: Red Sox over Phillies

Christopher L. Gasper
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees (wc), Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
Other divisions: Twins, Athletics, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Giants (wc)
World Series: Red Sox over Brewers

Tony Massarotti
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees (wc), Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
Other divisions: Twins, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Giants, Atlanta (wc)
World Series: Phillies over Red Sox

February 15, 2011

PECOTA Sees Red Sox Winning East (Barely)

Steven Goldman, Baseball Prospectus/ESPN:
Boston Red Sox: 92-70 (projected 2011 record)

A reloaded and presumably healthy offense invigorated by Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez will get all the attention, but [Baseball Prospectus' projection system] PECOTA sees the real improvement as being due to a strong starting rotation aided by a rebound season from Josh Beckett and a deeper bullpen. ... PECOTA expects the Sox to allow 50 fewer runs than last year, a tall order if Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka don't deliver on past performances. ... Adrian Gonzalez could be due for a real breakout in Fenway Park. ... PECOTA foresees .281/.379/.502 rates and 31 home runs, but that projection might prove to be too conservative. ... Player who could disappoint: Beckett.

New York Yankees: 91-71

[S]everal Yankees disappointed at the plate last year and yet they still led the league in runs scored. They should be potent again this year, with PECOTA calling for them to lead the division in runs scored. The bullpen, with its Rafael Soriano-to-Mariano Rivera endgame, should be a standout. Why they might not win: Because the richest team in baseball has Bartolo Colon, Sergio Mitre and Freddy Garcia competing for rotation spots ... Player who could disappoint: Derek Jeter. ... [He] couldn't get the ball off the ground last year. (His ground ball rate of 65.7 percent was the highest in baseball.) PECOTA's .281/.350/.389 projection offers faint hope for the 37-year-old shortstop.

Tampa Bay Rays: 84-78

Rays starters had the third-best ERA in the league. Replacing Matt Garza ... with top prospect Jeremy Hellickson should further strengthen the unit. ... Almost the entirety of last season's bullpen is gone and the replacements have names like Farnsworth and Peralta. Joe Maddon is the game's most creative manager, but it would take an act of sorcery to create a bullpen as good as last year's best-in-AL unit. ... According to PECOTA, the Rays will drop nearly 60 runs of offense and allow more than 60 more. ... Player who could surprise: Manny Ramirez ... A conservative PECOTA calls for him to hit .269/.380/.462.

Baltimore Orioles: 82-80

Toronto Blue Jays: 76-86
Example

SG at RLYW ran another round of sims last week (+/- are as compared to 2010 totals)
           W     L     RS   RA   ALE    WC    POST   W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox   96.2  65.8  831  687  45.6%  17.6%  63.2%   7.2   13  -57
Yankees   92.1  69.9  821  726  28.8%  19.4%  48.2%  -2.9  -38   33
Rays      87.9  74.1  737  663  17.3%  14.6%  31.9%  -8.1  -65   14
Blue Jays 77.2  84.8  709  738   4.2%   5.0%   9.2%  -7.8  -46   10
Orioles   76.9  85.1  739  788   4.2%   4.8%   9.0%  10.9  126    3
SG:
In the AL East, the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays and Yankees all improved, with Baltimore making the biggest gains. The Red Sox still project as the best team in baseball, but the gap has shrunk a bit. ... Even though rosters are a bit more settled than they were six weeks ago, it's still too early to read too much into these. So take them with the appropriate amount of skepticism.
Example
On February 4, I posted the predictions from three pre-season magazines, including The Sporting News. Here is a bit more from the magazine, some of the "rival scout" remarks about the Red Sox and Yankees:

Red Sox:
... hard to find a lot of holes. The lineup looks like a monster with Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, who I think is going to go nuts now that he's out of San Diego ... I guess if you want to pick it apart, you can wonder a little bit about that rotation if they don't get a bounce-back from Beckett and Lackey ... even if the rotation has question marks, it's still deeper than what the Yankees have right now.
Yankees:
Unless A.J. Burnett gets things figured out real quick, they're going to really struggle again with that starting pitching.
Joe Girardi on Burnett: "I just have a feeling in my gut that he's going to have a good year."

I fully assume that Girardi said something very similar last spring.

February 4, 2011

Spring Annuals Really Like The Red Sox

Lindy's
AL East
Red Sox
Yankees (wc)
Rays
Blue Jays
Orioles
  
AL Champion: Red Sox
World Series: Red Sox vs Phillies*
  
Manager: Terry Francona
Cy Young: Jon Lester
(* I was in the bookstore, quickly scribbling this stuff down, but I'm pretty sure there was no prediction of the World Series outcome.)

The Sporting News
AL East
Red Sox
Yankees (wc)
Blue Jays
Rays
Orioles
  
AL Champion: Red Sox
World Series: Red Sox over Phillies
  
Manager: Francona
Cy Young: Lester
Athlon
AL East
Red Sox
Yankees (wc)
Rays
Orioles
Blue Jays
  
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
World Series: Red Sox over Phillies
  
MVP: Carl Crawford (5th), Kevin Youkilis (7th), Adrian Gonzalez (10th)
Cy Young: Lester (3rd), Clay Buchholz (8th)

January 24, 2011

More Projected Standings

SG of RLYW looked at the AL East's projected standings now that the Rays have signed Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez and the Blue Jays traded Vernon Wells for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera:
            W     L     RS   RA   Div     WC   Post
Red Sox    94.9  67.1  834  693  45.5%  16.3%  61.8%
Yankees    90.3  71.7  819  739  25.4%  17.4%  42.8%
Rays       88.1  73.9  736  663  19.8%  15.1%  34.9%
Blue Jays  77.9  84.1  721  738   5.6%   5.6%  11.2%
Orioles    75.5  86.5  732  796   3.8%   4.0%   7.8%
The results from the earlier sims (here) had Boston's lead in the East at approximately nine games. These projections cut that to 4.6 games. Interestingly, the Yankees' chances of making the post-season actually dropped from the earlier projections, from 44.9% to 42.8%.

The Truck heads south in 15 days.

January 3, 2011

Early RLYW CAIRO Sims Look Very Nice

About a week ago, RLYW's SG posted the results of his super-early 2011 projections. He played out the season 10,000 times with his CAIRO v0.3 method, with a dump truck full of caveats:
It's very limited ... [This] shows us how things would look if nothing changed from now until April. Which won't happen. ... [T]hese projections will favor the teams that have essentially completed their 2011 rosters. ... [P]rojection systems are inherently limited. ... Did I mention that it's still too early to do this, and that it shouldn't be taken seriously? ... Did I mention that it's too early for this to be taken too seriously?
I agree with all of that -- and I'll add that injuries to a few key players can also sink a team's chances -- but these looked so good, I'm sharing them anyway!
           W   L   RS   RA   Div    WC    W+/-  RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox   98  64  856  690  54.6%  15.6%   + 9    38   -54
Yankees   89  73  835  740  23.2%  21.7%   - 6   -24    47
Rays      87  75  707  640  17.9%  18.7%   - 9   -95   - 9
Blue Jays 74  88  693  737   2.6%   5.8%   -11   -62     9
Orioles   70  92  723  813   1.8%   2.9%   + 4   110    28
The columns are average projected wins, losses, runs scored, and runs allowed; % of times winning the division and wild card; change in projected wins, runs scored, and runs allowed versus 2010 totals.

The average of the 10,000 seasons has the Red Sox improving by nine wins, scoring 38 more runs while allowing 54 fewer runs. By comparison, the Yankees project to score 24 fewer runs, allow 47 more, and decline by six games (though they would win the wild card). Boston had the best record in baseball, with Philadelphia (96-66) and St. Louis (90-72) as the only other teams to average more than 90 wins per season.

This is what CAIRO has to say right before the 2010 season began:
           W     L     RS    RA
Yankees   97.7  64.3  881   708
Rays      94.2  67.8  783   655
Red Sox   93.9  68.1  824   685
And actual finish:
           W     L     RS    RA
Rays      96    66    802   649 
Yankees   95    67    859   693 
Red Sox   89    73    818   744