Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2009. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2009. Show all posts

April 7, 2009

Predictions: The Hardball Times

One last set of predictions, from The Hardball Times. Here is a quick summary of the East teams and how the 26 writers picked them to finish:
             1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th
Red Sox 15 8 3 0 0
Yankees 10 7 9 0 0
Rays 1 11 14 0 0
Blue Jays 0 0 0 13 13
Orioles 0 0 0 13 13
World Series
Red Sox      10
Yankees 5
Cubs 4
Rays 4
Mets 2
Atlanta 1
Angels 1
AL Pennant (25 of 26 from the ALE!)
Red Sox      13
Yankees 9
Rays 3
Angels 1
NL Pennant
Cubs         14
Mets 5
Diamondbacks 2
Dodgers 2
Giants 2
Atlanta 1
Marlins 1
AL MVP
Grady Sizemore    15
Mark Teixeira 6
B.J. Upton 2
Kevin Youkilis 1
Josh Hamilton 1
Nick Markakis 1
Alex Rodriguez 1
AL Cy Young
Roy Halladay      11
C.C. Sabathia 6
Josh Beckett 3
Zack Greinke 3
Daisuke Matsuzaka 1
Francisco Liriano 1
John Lackey 1
James Shields 1

April 5, 2009

Predictions: ESPN

ESPN's 2009 preview and staff picks:
                 ALE      WC       WS
Jorge Arangure Red Sox Yankees Cubs over Red Sox
Matthew Berry Rays Twins Rays over Cardinals
Jim Caple Red Sox Rays Twins over Mets
Jerry Crasnick Red Sox Rays Rays over Cubs
Peter Gammons Red Sox Yankees Red Sox over Mets
Pedro Gomez Rays Twins Rays over Phillies
Jason Grey Red Sox Yankees Red Sox over Dodgers
Orel Hershiser Rays Red Sox Rays over Mets
Eric Karabell Rays Red Sox Red Sox over Cardinals
Tim Kurkjian Yankees Red Sox Yankees over Cubs
Keith Law Red Sox Yankees Red Sox over Cubs
Amy Nelson Red Sox Rays Red Sox over Dodgers
Rob Neyer Yankees Red Sox Cubs over Yankees
Buster Olney Rays Red Sox Rays over Phillies
Peter Pascarelli Rays Yankees Cardinals over Rays
Nate Ravitz Rays Red Sox Mets over Rays
Brendan Roberts Yankees Red Sox Red Sox over Mets
Enrique Rojas Yankees Rays Cubs over Yankees
Chris Singleton Yankees Rays Yankees over Mets
Jayson Stark Red Sox Yankees Red Sox over Phillies
Gene
Wojciechowski Red Sox Rays Cubs over Red Sox
AL East Picks: Red Sox (9), Rays (7), Yankees (5)

Of the 21 "experts", 5 predict the Red Sox will miss the playoffs (though they could still finish in 2nd place). But 9 of the 21 expect the Red Sox to play in the World Series, with 7 saying they should win.

Other Red Sox/Rays/Yankees Stuff:

MVP
Teixeria (6): Arangure, Grey, Law, Neyer, Roberts, Rojas
Upton (2): Berry, Caple
Longoria (2): Crasnick, Karabell
Crawford (2): Hershiser, Pascarelli
Bay (1): Ravitz
Youkilis (1): Stark

Cy Young
Sabathia (6): Grey, Hershiser, Neyer, Olney, Stark, Wojciechowski
Lester (4): Karabell, Nelson, Pascarelli, Singleton

Breakout Player
Lowrie: Neyer

Underrated Player
Crawford: Olney, Rojas

RoY
Price: Rojas

***

ESPN.com asked 15 of ESPN's leading baseball experts to rank every major league team from 1-30, and the Red Sox came out on top, narrowly beating out their two AL East rivals -- the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees. In fact, the defending AL champion Rays finished with more first-place votes than the Red Sox (6-5), but fell short of the Red Sox in the overall point total.

Predictions: Globe and Herald


Sean McAdam notes that as the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees prepare to begin the regular season
there's the unsettling feeling that while Tampa, Boston and New York are quite likely the three best teams in baseball, one of them won't be advancing to the playoffs.

"That's amazing, when you think about it," said an executive from a team outside the East. "I think any one of those teams would win the other divisions going away. But one of them won't make (the postseason)."
The Red Sox play 15 of their first 32 games against Tampa Bay and New York.

***

Herald (2009 preview)

Michael Silverman:
Boy, winter just flew by, didn't it? [JoS: No, it did not.] ...

Just one day before Red Sox Opening Day and one eternal truth remains: I love the smell of horsehide in the morning. Very little in life is more exciting than the start of the baseball season ...

AL East: Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles

The best division in baseball, bar none. In fact, the three best teams in the American League are the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees. ... The Yanks are the ultimate case study on whether money can buy happiness. ...

The Red Sox placed smart-bomb bets on John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito and Rocco Baldelli and while they wait to see if they collect, their payroll flexibility and farm depth allows them to pounce on the midseason trade market. There's no limit to how far the Red Sox can go if all their bets pay off.

Why don't the Rays get more love? The fluke factor vanished for me last September. I see a defending AL champ that is still young, loaded with talent and with a valuable year of playoff experience under its belt. ...
More from the Herald:

Steve Buckley

AL East: Red Sox, Yankees*, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays
Others: Twins, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies*
World Series: Red Sox over Dodgers

Ron Borges

AL East: Rays, Red Sox*, Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles
Others: Twins, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies*
World Series: Red Sox over Dodgers

Karen Guregian

AL East: Red Sox, Yankees*, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays
Others: Twins, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies*
World Series: Red Sox over Cubs

Sean McAdam

AL East: Red Sox, Yankees*, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
Others: White Sox, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets*
World Series: Dodgers over Red Sox

Michael Silverman

AL East: Rays, Red Sox*, Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles
Others: Royals, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Phillies*
World Series: Rays over Cubs

John Tomase

AL East: Yankees, Rays*, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles
Others: Twins, A's, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Marlins*
World Series: Rays over Mets

***

Globe (2009 preview & staff picks)
                  AL EAST     OTHER DIVS     WS

Amalie Benjamin Red Sox White Sox Cubs
Rays* Angles over
Yankees Phillies Red Sox
Blue Jays Cubs
Orioles Dodgers

Tony Massarotti Rays Cleveland Cubs
Red Sox* Angels over
Yankees Phillies Rays
Blue Jays Cubs
Orioles Diamondbacks

Adam Kilgore Red Sox Royals Rays
Rays* A's over
Yankees Phillies Cubs
Orioles Cubs
Blue Jays Dodgers

Chad Finn Red Sox Cleveland Red Sox
Yankees* A's over
Rays Mets Cubs
Blue Jays Reds
Orioles Dodgers

Bob Ryan Red Sox Twins Red Sox
Yankees* Angels over
Rays Mets Cubs
Orioles Cubs
Blue Jays Dodgers

Dan Shaughnessy Red Sox Twins Cubs
Rays* Angels over
Yankees Mets Red Sox
Blue Jays Cubs
Orioles Dodgers

*: wild card

Predictions: From New York

Times

Jack Curry:
AL East Finish: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays
Other Divisions: Twins, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers

ALDS: Yankees over Twins, Red Sox over Angels
NLDS: Mets over Dodgers, Cubs over Phillies
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Cubs over Mets

World Series: Cubs over Red Sox
Tyler Kepner (AL):
East Finish: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays
Central: Royals
West: Angels
WC: Red Sox

MVP: Mark Teixeira
Cy Young: Zack Greinke

ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox
World Series: Cubs over Yankees
Ben Shpigel (NL):
Divisions: Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks
WC: Phillies

MVP: Manny Ramirez
Cy Young; Johan Santana

NLCS: Mets over Phillies
World Series: Red Sox over Mets
***

Daily News

Bill Madden looks at the AL East:
Rays    101-61
Red Sox 94-68
Yankees 90-72
Also:
AL Central: White Sox by 4 games
AL West: Angels by 1 game
NL East: Phillies by 9 games
NL Central: Cubs by 1 game
NL West: Dodgers by 7 games
Jesse Spector (Touching Base):
AL East Finish: Yankees, Red Sox (WC), Rays
The Yankees have the strongest lineup in the division -- even without Alex Rodriguez -- and that should be the difference in a division where the top three teams all have stellar rotations and bullpens. I do see the Rays' bullpen as a cut below the Yanks and Sox, and that's how I wound up putting them third.

Other Divisions: Twins, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers
ALDS: Yankees over Twins / Red Sox over Angels
NLDS: Cubs over Giants / Phillies over Dodgers

ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Cubs over Phillies

World Series: Cubs over Red Sox

AL Stuff
MVP: Mark Teixeira
Cy Young: Francisco Liriano
Batting Title: Dustin Pedroia
RBI: Mark Teixeira
Wins: CC Sabathia
ERA: Francisco Liriano
***

Post

Joel Sherman:
AL Cy Young: Jon Lester, Red Sox. He had a huge innings jump last year, so that is a bit scary. But he is a strike-throwing, fearless horse with well-above-average stuff.

AL MVP: Evan Longoria, Rays. I see a 40-homer Gold Glover winner, and it is possible his top competition will come from teammate B.J. Upton. ...

Best free-agent signing: John Smoltz, Red Sox. This signing may not work for everyone. But once the Red Sox's bid failed on Mark Teixeira, they had plenty of cash. And for a big-market team, a one-year, $5.5 million gamble on a motivated, athletic star who also happens to be among the best big-game pitchers ever, works. ...

Manager of the Year: Terry Francona, Red Sox. He has a lot of moving parts in a difficult atmosphere, but always seems to have a firm grasp on his roster, and that should be even easier in his first full season without Manny Ramirez. ...
***

The websites of the Daily News, Post and Newsday are such a godawful mess that there may be actual staff predictions hidden away in their online sports section, but I was unable to root them out. If anyone finds them in the print copy, leave a comment.

April 4, 2009

Predictions: Globe & Mail, Yahoo, Rosenthal

Here are the picks from the two Globe and Mail writers. I could not find an online version, but this was in today's paper:
              Jeff Blair     Robert MacLeod
AL East Rays Red Sox
Red Sox (wc) Yankees (wc)
Yankees Rays
Blue Jays Blue Jays
Orioles Orioles

AL Central Cleveland Cleveland
AL West Angels Angels
NL East Phillies Phillies
NL Central Cubs Cubs
NL West Dodgers Dodgers
NL WC Marlins Reds

AL Pennant Red Sox Red Sox
NL Pennant Cubs Cubs
World Series Red Sox Cubs

AL MVP Sizemore Teixeira
AL Cy Young Lester Lester
Best AVG Pedroia Pedroia
RBI Leader Teixeira Teixeira
AL Wins Lester Matsuzaka
ERA Sabathia Halladay
Strikeouts Burnett Sabathia
Saves Papelbon Papelbon
***

Richard Griffin, Toronto Star:
The Jays and O's are stuck in the AL East with three superior teams, likely putting the division title and wild card out of reach.
Yes, likely.

***

Yahoo (Tim Brown, Jeff Passan, Gordon Edes and Steve Henson):
     Brown      Passan     Edes       Henson
AL E Rays 96 Red Sox 94 Red Sox 95 Red Sox 96
Red Sox 95 Rays 92 Rays 94 Rays 95
Yankees 87 Yankees 89 Yankees 92 Yankees 90

AL C Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Twins
AL W Angels Rangers A's Angels

NL E Phillies Mets Mets Phillies
NL C Cubs Cubs Cubs Cubs
NL W Dodgers Dodgers Dodgers D'Backs

AL Red Sox Red Sox Red Sox Red Sox
NL Cubs Dodgers Mets D'Backs
WS Cubs Red Sox Red Sox Red Sox
Jonathan Lee, AccuScore analyst (Yahoo):

AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at-bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series.
                 WIN    DIV    MAKE   WIN    WIN
W L DIV OR WC ALCS ALCS WS

Red Sox 95 67 32.2% 46.5% 28.0% 19.5% 13.1%
Rays 93 69 28.1% 42.6% 24.7% 16.5% 10.6%
Yankees 91 71 25.4% 40.8% 21.9% 14.5% 9.1%
Blue Jays 80 82 11.5% 22.4% 9.6% 5.3% 2.4%
Orioles 68 94 2.8% 6.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
***

Ken Rosenthal, MSN/Fox:
AL East
Rays
Red Sox (WC)
Yankees
Blue Jays
Orioles

AL Central: Twins
AL West: Angels
ALDS: Rays over Twins / Red Sox over Angels
ALCS: Rays over Red Sox

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Dodgers
NL WC: Mets
NLDS: Phillies over Dodgers / Cubs over Mets
NLCS: Phillies over Cubs

World Series: Rays over Phillies in 6
Red Sox: Too many physical questions to merit a full endorsement, but the depth of the pitching staff should ensure at least a wild card.

Yankees: As with the Red Sox, plenty of potential for age- and injury-related issues — and that's assuming A-Rod returns at 100 percent.

Rays: A lot went right last season, but not everything. The offense should be better, the defense remains outstanding and the pitching is deep and strong. For virtually every problem that may arise, the Rays have an answer.

April 2, 2009

Predictions: SI & CBS

It's becoming the standard line about the American League East, which doesn't make it any less true. One of the top three teams in baseball will not be among the eight clubs playing in October.

Danny Knobler, CBS Sports:
It's hardly a stretch to say that the Rays are now one of the best two or three teams in the game. ... But it's also no stretch to say the Rays could easily miss out on the playoffs altogether this October. ... [But] let's make clear that what applies to the Rays applies to the Yankees and the Red Sox as well. They all could be among the two or three best teams in the game -- and any one of them could miss the playoffs. [JoS: Yep.]
The always-excellent Joe Posnanski (bookmark his blog) has eight predictions for 2009:
... [CC] Sabathia isn't the reason I think the Yankees will miss the playoffs again. And Joba Chamberlain's sudden and shocking decrease in velocity is not the reason. And the aging of Derek Jeter is not the reason. And the fact that sooner or later Mariano Rivera will either age or be forced to return to his home planet is not the reason. And the sad ballad of A-Rod is not the reason either.

No, the simple reasons are that I think that Tampa Bay will be better than last year. And I think Boston is a more complete team than the Yankees. In my view, those are three of the five best teams in baseball, and one is going to miss the playoffs [JoS: See?]. I think it will be the Yankees.
Tim Marchman, SI.com:
In the American League East we're in for a fantastic race. Tampa Bay, Boston and New York are the three best clubs in the game, and at least one of them is going to finish out of the money. [JoS: Everyone is saying it.] Along with the punters I think it's going to be Tampa Bay, less because of any failing on their part than because of the competition. Boston has both absurd depth and stars such as Josh Beckett who are capable of playing at a level that Tampa Bay's best haven't quite reached yet; New York's roster is gristly and jury rigged, but not so much so that they won't make best use of the $440 million (!) they spent this winter. ... World Series: Red Sox over Cubs ...
Tom Verducci, SI.com:
The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are the three best teams in baseball, and yet at least one of them is guaranteed to miss the playoffs. [JoS: Did you think I was kidding?] "It's going to be a frickin' war in that division," said A's general manager Billy Beane. Seven of the past 12 teams to play for the AL championship (and 12 of the past 22) have come from the AL East ...

No team has won a pennant in 29 years or a World Series in 54 years with a shortstop as old as Derek Jeter, who turns 35 in June. ... Only poor health should keep the Yankees from winning 95 games.

Boston has two legit aces in Josh Beckett and Lester, and John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz on hand as the best supply of pitching reinforcements in baseball. Tampa Bay, with pitchers Wade Davis, David Price and Jeff Niemann ready to contribute this season, and B.J. Upton and Longoria primed for superstardom, is better on paper this year than when it won 97 games last year.
SI Staff (Bold pennant = World Series champion):
                 East      Wild Card   Pennant
Tom Verducci Yankees Red Sox Angels
Jon Heyman Red Sox Yankees Red Sox
Ted Keith Yankees Red Sox Yankees
Joe Posnanski Rays Red Sox Red Sox
Gennaro Filice Red Sox Yankees Red Sox
Cliff Corcoran Red Sox Yankees Red Sox
Ben Reiter Red Sox Yankees Red Sox
David Sabino Rays Red Sox Rays
Joe Lemire Red Sox Yankees Red Sox
Albert Chen Red Sox Rays Rays
Lee Jenkins Yankees Cleveland Twins
Melissa Segura Yankees Rays Yankees
Jonah Freedman Rays Yankees Cleveland
Extra:
Verducci   MVP: Youkilis - CY: Lester
Heyman MVP: Teixeira - CY: Lester
Corcoran CY: Sabathia
Sabino CY: Lester
Lemire CY: Beckett
Segura MVP: Teixeira
***

CBS Staff:
               East     WC       WS
Scott Miller Red Sox Rays Cubs over Red Sox
Danny Knobler Red Sox Yankees Red Sox over Cubs
Eric Mack Red Sox Yankees Cubs over Red Sox
Adriane Rosen Red Sox Yankees Cubs over Red Sox
Other Stuff
Scott Miller   MVP: Youkilis; Disappointment: Jeter
Danny Knobler Disappointment: Chamberlain
Eric Mack CY: Beckett
Adriane Rosen MVP: Teixeira; CY: Lester
More from Miller here:
AL Most Disappointing Team: New York Yankees. In a $1 billion stadium and with a payroll approaching $200 million, anything short of turning water into wine for those in the $2,000 (per game) seats behind the plate will be disappointing. ...

AL Disappointing Player: Derek Jeter, Yankees. Sadly, but surely, Father Time sneaks up on everyone.

February 20, 2009

PECOTA Projected Standings

Clay Davenport, Baseball Prospectus:
...[W]e're playing the entire season from day one, and we're using the depth-chart projections to set the team's strength (though since the depth charts also use a strength-of-schedule adjustment to calculate the records you see, I had to temporarily undo that). We can set a win percentage for each game, and by essentially rolling dice in the computer, we can determine who wins or loses each game. We can do that for an entire season, or a dozen seasons, or a million seasons -- and yes, our usual number is a cool million.
                        Div.     Wild    Total
AL East W L Title% Card% Postseason%

Red Sox 98.0 64.0 38.9 24.0 62.0
Yankees 95.9 66.1 32.1 24.5 56.5
Rays 91.3 70.7 20.3 21.1 41.4
Blue Jays 81.2 80.8 6.4 10.1 16.5
Orioles 73.9 88.1 2.3 4.5 6.8
This is the powerhouse division; they very nearly rated as having the three most likely playoff teams in the AL, even though only two of them can make it. An Eastern team took the AL Wild Card in a staggering 84 percent of the simulations; even the Orioles earn a higher wild-card chance than any team in the other two divisions. All that playing against each other comes at a cost, however, as each team is losing 3-4 games against an average strength of schedule.

February 13, 2009

Pre-Season Mags: Lindy's & Athlon

Two more pre-season magazines have hit newsstands. Here are some of their predictions:

Lindy's

AL East        Other Playoff Teams
Yankees Twins
Red Sox (wc) Angels
Rays Phillies
Blue Jays Cubs
Orioles Dodgers
Marlins (wc)

AL Pennant: Yankees
NL Pennant: Cubs
MVPs: Mark Teixeira, Hanley Ramirez
CYs: Jon Lester, Cole Hamels

Athlon
AL East        Other Playoff Teams
Red Sox Twins
Yankees (wc) Angels
Rays Phillies
Blue Jays Cubs
Orioles Diamondbacks
Mets (wc)

ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees
NLCS: Phillies over Mets
WS: Red Sox over Phillies
MVPs: Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez
CYs: Jonathan Papelbon, Johan Santana

February 5, 2009

TSN Predictions

I picked up my first pre-season magazine today -- The Sporting News 2009 Yearbook. Spring cannot be far behind!

Sadly, I am in Region 2 and am stuck with cover boy Roy Halladay, as opposed to getting FY and LBJ in Region 1.

In his AL East intro, Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger writes that the division "may have the three best teams in the league, of not all of baseball. And since no more than two of those teams can qualify for the postseason, it promises to be an all-out dogfight."

Here is TSN's predicted finish:
             Final Grade*
Yankees 94
Red Sox (wc) 93
Rays 92
Blue Jays 74
Orioles 65
*: I don't know what this is or how it is calculated, but it sure looks like
TSN could have listed the top three teams in any order and gone to press.


Comments from rival scouts:

Yankees:
They needed starting pitching and they got it. Those two guys they got, Sabathia and Burnett, they're real No. 1-type guys. So they'll be better, no doubt about it. But for me, the biggest problem they had last year was they were a team that looked like it was getting old. And I'm not sure how well they've answered that ...

Bobby Abreu was a real useful player for them, and they couldn't fit him in their [2009] outfield because they're stuck with Damon and Matsui, who can't do much anymore. Jeter is basically a singles hitter now, and he's a disaster in the field. He actually hurts them at shortstop. Posada's coming off shoulder surgery. Cano ... who know what they'll get from him? ...

They could win [the division], but they're not clearly better than those other two teams at the top.
Red Sox:
They'll score plenty. Ortiz should be back from the wrist [injury] and be the monster he used to be. Everybody's raving about the two No. 1 starters the Yankees got, but they forget the Red Sox already had three of them. Beckett and Lester are as good a 1-2 as anybody has. Dice-K drives you nuts, but he knows how to win the game. And Papelbon is the best closer going right now. I love that kid's stuff and attitude. Like, "I'm better than you and there's nothing you can do about it."
Rays:
They won the league with the league's lowest payroll. Seriously, that's a GM's dream, right? What GM wouldn't have traded his whole team, straight up, for Tampa's team last October? The whole 25-man roster. And there's more on the way, too. If they're putting David Price in the rotation, he'll be an impact guy right away. ...

They could use another big bat, but they'll probably get one, and they'd do well to make sure it's one that doesn't mess with the good stuff, chemistry-wise, they've got going on there. The starting pitching is rock solid. I worry a little about their bullpen because I don't see a closer. But they have enough arms to figure it out. ...

Guys like Upton and Longoria are just going to get better and better, and they have more guys in the system coming up to help in the next year or two. They make everybody jealous.
TSN's picks for the other five divisions: Twins, Angels, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers, with the Mets as the NL wild card.

MVPs: Longoria / Pujols. CYs: Sabathia / Santana.

World Series: Yankees over Cubs. (In 2008, TSN picked the Red Sox over the Cubs.)