Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions and projections 2012. Show all posts

April 4, 2012

ESPN Predictions

Last year, ESPN's experts were ga-ga over the Red Sox:
45 of 45 (100%) picked the Red Sox to win the AL East
42 of 45 (93%) picked the Red Sox to win the AL pennant
33 of 45 (73%) picked the Red Sox to win the World Series
For 2012, however, they are not so positive.
                    AL East   AL WC              World Series
Jorge Arangure Jr.  Yankees   Rays, Angels       Tigers over Atlanta
Stephania Bell      Rays      Angels, Yankees    Rays over Giants
Matthew Berry       Red Sox   Rays, Rangers      Phillies over Angels
Steve Berthiaume    Rays      Yankees, Angels    Angels over Diamondbacks
Aaron Boone         Yankees   Blue Jays, Rangers Angels over Phillies
Jim Bowden          Yankees   Rangers, Rays      Angels over Diamondbacks
Dave Cameron        Yankees   Angels, Red Sox    Cardinals over Yankees
Jim Caple           Rays      Yankees, Rangers   Angels over Giants
Jason Churchill     Yankees   Angels, Rays       Rangers over Reds
Tristan Cockcroft   Rays      Angels, Yankees    Rays over Reds
Jerry Crasnick      Yankees   Angels, Rays       Rangers over Diamondbacks
Richard Durrett     Yankees   Angels, Red Sox    Rangers over Phillies
Terry Francona      Yankees   Red Sox, Rays      Angels over Phillies
Doug Glanville      Yankees   Rangers, Red Sox   Angels over Diamondbacks
Kevin Goldstein     Yankees   Rays, Red Sox      Tigers over Reds
Pedro Gomez         Yankees   Rangers, Red Sox   Angels over Reds
Carolina Guillen    Yankees   Red Sox, Rangers   Angels over Phillies
Orel Hershiser      Rays      Yankees, Rangers   Rays over Diamondbacks
Tony Jackson        Yankees   Rays, Red Sox      Phillies over Tigers
Christina Kahrl     Yankees   Rays, Angels       Angels over Diamondbacks
Eric Karabell       Rays      Angels, Yankees    Phillies over Rays
Jonah Keri          Yankees   Rays, Rangers      Yankees over Phillies
Molly Knight        Rays      Rangers, Yankees   Angels over Cardinals
John Kruk           Yankees   Rangers, Rays      Tigers over Brewers
David Kull          Rays      Yankees, Rangers   Angels over Diamondbacks
Barry Larkin        Yankees   Rays, Rangers      Angels over Diamondbacks
Keith Law           Yankees   Angels, Rays       Rangers over Atlanta
Andrew Marchand     Yankees   Angels, Red Sox    Phillies over Rangers
AJ Mass             Yankees   Rangers, Rays      Tigers over Atlanta
Javier Maymi        Rays      Angels, Yankees    Rays over Marlins
Matt Meyers         Rays      Yankees, Red Sox   Rays over Diamondbacks
Mark Mulder         Yankees   Rangers, Rays      Angels over Diamondbacks
Buster Olney        Rays      Yankees, Angels    Rays over Diamondbacks
Doug Padilla        Yankees   Rays, Rangers      Angels over Phillies
Peter Pascarelli    Yankees   Red Sox, Rangers   Tigers over Diamondbacks
Karl Ravech         Yankees   Red Sox, Rangers   Red Sox over Diamondbacks
Enrique Rojas       Yankees   Rangers, Red Sox   Angels over Giants
Adam Rubin          Yankees   Rays, Angels       Yankees over Nationals
Amanda Rykoff       Yankees   Rangers, Rays      Angels over Diamondbacks
Mark Saxon          Yankees   Rangers, Rays      Cardinals over Angels
Curt Schilling      Yankees   Angels, Rays       Phillies over Angels
Jon Sciambi         Yankees   Rays, Angels       Rays over Phillies
David Schoenfield   Red Sox   Yankees, Rays      Rangers over Brewers
Dan Shulman         Yankees   Rangers, Rays      Angels over Diamondbacks
Mark Simon          Yankees   Rangers, Red Sox   Angels over Cardinals
Jayston Stark       Yankees   Angels, Blue Jays  Tigers over Cardinals
Rick Sutcliffe      Yankees   Rays, Angels       Rangers over Nationals
Matt Szefc          Yankees   Rangers, Rays      Yankees over Phillies
Dan Szymborski      Yankees   Rays, Angels       Rangers over Phillies

         Pennant  World Series
Angels     21         18
Rays        8          7
Rangers     8          7
Tigers      7          6
Yankees     4          3
Red Sox     1          1

SG's RLYW AL East Projection Outblow

SG (at RLYW) has posted the results of five different projection systems: ZIPS, PECOTA, Marcel, Oliver, Cairo (his own system), and a combination of the five.

I have snipped the AL East in each case.

ZIPS (Dan Szyborski)

PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)

Marcel (Tango Tiger)

Oliver (Hardball Times)

Cairo (SG)

Total

SG: "First AL Wild Card team won an average of 92 games, second won an average of 89."

April 3, 2012

More Predictions

Providence Journal
              Tim Britton     Brian MacPherson
AL East       New York*       New York*
              Tampa Bay*      Boston*
              Boston*         Tampa Bay
              Toronto         Toronto
              Baltimore       Baltimore
AL Central    Detroit         Detroit
AL West       Los Angeles     Los Angeles
AL MVP        Miguel Cabrera  Miguel Cabrera
AL CY         CC Sabathia     CC Sabathia
AL Rookie     Matt Moore      Yu Darvish
AL Pennant    Los Angeles     Detroit
NL Pennant    San Francisco   Miami
World Series  Los Angeles     Detroit
The Boston Globe's predictions are behind a pay wall, but I read at SoSH that only Tony Massarotti picked them to make the playoffs. Which means Peter Abraham, Nick Cafardo, and the CHB (anyone else?) did not. (I'm curious what the exact predictions are, if anyone has access to them.)

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times picks the Red Sox for fourth place, behind the Yankees, Rays (2d wild card), and Blue Jays.
The Yankees have issues, but on the grander scale, they seem small. ...
Tampa Bay has a well-rounded rotation but a strikeout-prone lineup, and Boston can slug but has serious questions in its fourth- and fifth-starter spots.

The Blue Jays could be a year away but might make their move sooner ...
For what it's worth - which is nothing - the Blue Jays are the first team to win 23 of its first 28 spring training games in 15 years (1997 Marlins).

David Schoenfield of ESPN's Sweet Spot blog explains why the Red Sox will win 96 games.
Example
Over at The Hardball Times, they have averaged the picks of the 22 writers:
AL East                Ave. rank
New York Yankees         1.36
Tampa Bay Rays           2.00
Boston Red Sox           3.00
Toronto Blue Jays        3.64
Baltimore Orioles        5.00

AL Central             Ave. rank
Detroit Tigers           1.05
Cleveland Indians        2.73
Kansas City Royals       3.09
Chicago White Sox        3.91
Minnesota Twins          4.14

NL East                Ave. rank
Texas Rangers            1.45
Anaheim Angels           1.64
Seattle Mariners         3.41
Oakland A's              3.50

AL Wild Card           No. votes
Anaheim Angels            11
Tampa Bay Rays             9
Texas Rangers              9
New York Yankees           8
Boston Red Sox             5
Detroit Tigers             1
Oakland A's                1
And some notes (my bolding):
The AL East standings are weird. It looks like everyone picked Tampa Bay second, Boston third and Baltimore fifth, with Toronto oddly stealing some first-place votes from New York. While we did all list the O's last, the other perfectly rounded-off positioning is just an odd statistical aberration. The Rays and Red Sox each were placed anywhere from first to fourth, but their cumulative totals make their ranks seem nice and tidy. ...

The AL playoffs seem nearly set with the season hardly underway. With the Tigers a preseason lock to win their division, the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Rangers and Angels appear destined to fight for the four remaining playoff births.
Example
Seven Philadelphia Daily News writers - Ed Barkowitz, Sam Donnellon, Marcus Hayes, Rich Hoffman, Stan Hochman, David Murphy, John Smallwood - predict the 2012 baseball season:
             EB        SD        MH        RH        SH        DM        JS
AL East      Yankees   Rays      Yankees   Yankees   Yankees   Yankees   Rays
             Rays      Yankees   Red Sox   Red Sox   Red Sox   Red Sox   Yankees
             Red Sox   Red Sox   Rays      Rays      Rays      Rays      Blue Jays
             Blue Jays Blue Jays Blue Jays Blue Jays Blue Jays Blue Jays Red Sox
             Orioles   Orioles   Orioles   Orioles   Orioles   Orioles   Orioles
AL WC        LAA, TBR  TEX, NYY  TBR, TEX  LAA, BOS  BOS, TEX  BOS, TBR  NYY, TEX
AL Pennant   Rangers   Tigers    Tigers    Yankees   Angels    Yankees   Tigers
NL Pennant   Atlanta   Phillies  Phillies  Phillies  Phillies  Brewers   Phillies
World Series Rangers   Phillies  Tigers    Yankees   Phillies  Yankees   Phillies
Hoffmann and Murphy pick Adrian Gonzalez as the AL MVP. Murphy picked Jon Lester for the AL Cy Young.

March 31, 2012

Some Yahoo! Picks Red Sox For 4th

David Brown and Kevin Kaduk of Yahoo! Sports offer their predictions for the American League East:
'Duk: Death, taxes and the Yankees getting the annual chance to roll the pitching dice in playoffs! While I've admittedly waffled all offseason about who would get my top spot in the AL East, I keep coming back to the Yankees after trying to assemble season-long cases for the Red Sox and Rays.

Brown: Oh, the Red Sox have no chance. Not "no chance" in the actual or even Coolstandings sense. But if I were betting my own money, I'd say the Rays would be a 60-40 probability, conservatively, to finish ahead of them in the standings. ... They're either too beat up or too fragile. They have too many mediocre players in prominent roles. Who is catching, who is playing shortstop? ... I like Bobby Valentine for entertainment value, but this is going to be a challenge for him to manage — fried chicken and beer bans notwithstanding. ... [Y]ou need 25 guys, or 30 guys, to make it out of the AL East wilderness. The Red Sox have about 15, maybe 20.

'Duk: Wait a minute. You're not OK with their plan to shore up their rotation which — last I checked — included rolling the dice on Daniel Bard's conversion from the bullpen and waiting around to see if Dice-K will be able to contribute anything (he won't)? While I think you're short-changing that lineup, I agree that the sources of consistent pitching are few and far between. It'll be their downfall again.
Predicted Order of Finish
'Duk:  Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles
Brown: Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles
AL East MVP
'Duk:  Robinson Cano, Yankees
Brown: Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
AL East Cy Young
'Duk:  David Price, Rays
Brown: Matt Moore, Rays

February 13, 2012

Predictions From Athlon, USAToday Magazines

Athlon:
If you navigated last September without shaming yourself, your family, your employers and the city you call home, congratulations! You had a better month than the Red Sox. ...

Outside of Ellsbury, every player on the roster has room to improve and all of New England - not to mention the rest of baseball - will be watching hawkishly to see how they respond. ... The Sox have circled the wagons and proclaimed that they're not the freak show everyone thinks. Now comes their chance to prove it.
East        Central     West
Yankees     Tigers      Rangers
Rays        Cleveland   Angels
Red Sox     Royals      Mariners
Blue Jays   Twins       A's
Orioles     White Sox

Wild Cards: Rays and Angels
NL Divisions: Phillies, Cardinals, Giants
NL Wild Cards: Diamondbacks, Reds
ALCS: Rangers over Yankees
World Series: Rangers over Phillies
MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Pedroia #5, Gonzalez #6)
Cy Young: Justin Verlander (Lester #5)
Rookie: Jesus Montero
NL MVP : Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
USAToday:

One of the Burning Questions: "Are The Red Sox In Decline?"
East        Central     West
Yankees     Tigers      Angels
Red Sox     Cleveland   Rangers
Rays        Royals      Mariners
Blue Jays   White Sox   A's
Orioles     Twins

Wins: Yankees 98, Red Sox 92, Rays 88
Wild Cards: Rangers (93 wins), Red Sox
NL Divisions: Phillies, Cardinals, Diamondbacks
NL Wild Cards: Atlanta, Reds

February 3, 2012

Lindy's: Angels/Phillies WS; Red Sox 3rd In East


Lindy's pre-season baseball magazine is on newsstands. Here are some of its predictions:

American League 
East        Central     West
Yankees     Tigers      Angels
Rays        Cleveland   Rangers
Red Sox     Royals      Mariners
Blue Jays   White Sox   Athletics
Orioles     Twins

Manager  - Ned Yost, Royals
MVP      - Albert Pujols, Angels
Cy Young - Jered Weaver, Angels
Rookie   - Matt Moore, Rays

AL Wild Card - Rangers
AL Pennant   - Angels
NL Divisions - Phillies, Reds, Giants
NL Wild Card - Diamondbacks
NL Pennant   - Phillies
The editors say that Boston's offense will keep the team in the race all season, but that beyond Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the starting pitching is "sketchy".

February 1, 2012

More 2012 Sims

Another simulation of the 2012 season, run by SG over at RLYW. If I recall, he runs either 1,000 or 10,000 seasons and this is the average.

January 28, 2012

Valentine: We're Going To Do Something Special

Kevin Youkilis, a master of understatement, says the Red Sox "didn't have the best vibe in the clubhouse" last year.
It was very different. It was noticeable early, but when you win, winning heals all the wounds. But we definitely didn't have the right attitude in a lot of ways. We were worrying about things that we shouldn't have been worrying about and not playing the game of baseball. I think this year, with the coaching staff that's coming back, they saw things we can change. We're going to all can sit down and talk about it ... It's exciting to have [Bobby Valentine] on board. He's really pumped. It's fun to have him going. It's going to be a tougher spring training. We're going to be working our butts off with Bobby. Not that we didn't before, but I think we're going to be hitting a lot more of the fundamentals.
Valentine:
How September happened in Boston, I'll never know. But when it happened I knew I was going to get a chance to do something special. And we're going to do something special next year. Fans feel disrespected. I think the guys get it. ... They went home with a bad taste in their mouth and are going to do everything they can to get that taste out.
Well, according to numerous reports, the players did not "get it" even as the season was acting like the Titanic in mid-September, so we shall see what got got over the winter.

A Red Sox team with a lot to prove could give us a summer of fun - and some of the early projections (found in this flip-floppy Jonah Keri article*) paint a rosy picture for the Red Sox. Clay Davenport (formerly of Baseball Prospectus) has Boston winning 98 games and finishing six games ahead of the Yankees:
Davenport projects Boston to score the most runs in MLB yet again and have baseball's second-best record (behind the Rangers' 102-60 mark). ... CAIRO puts the Red Sox at 94 wins and in first place by a whisker. ... ZiPS calculates Boston for 89 wins and a wild card battle with the Angels.

* - Shorter Keri: Trading Scutaro was stupid, unless the deal works out and makes the Red Sox a better team, which could totally happen, thus making it a great decision.

Roy Oswalt is leaning towards signing with the Cardinals. ... Edwin Jackson says he has received some three-year offers, but is considering a one-year contract that would put him back on the market next winter, Beltre-style.

December 26, 2011

First Projected Standings Of The Winter

SG at RLYW has posted "Some Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2012 Projected Standings":
This simulation has Boston leading the AL in runs scored, but finishing 10th in RA.