March 27, 2018

11 Sets Of Predictions, Including ESPN,, & SI

ESPN's 29 "experts" have given their team and award predictions for 2018:

AL East: Yankees (21 votes), Red Sox (7), Orioles (1)
[Can picking the Os really be called the actions of an "expert"?]

"Everyone's talking about the Yankees and their bash brothers, but the Red Sox getting J.D. Martinez is so critical to an OBP-laden crew and makes the offenses comparable. Xander Bogaerts will find his power. Hanley Ramirez will find his swing. David Price will find his health. And the Red Sox will find another division title." – Eric Karabell
AL Central: Cleveland (27), Twins (2)
AL West: Astros (29)
AL WCs: Red Sox and Twins (Angels, Mariners, and Blue Jays also received votes)

NL East: Nationals (29)
NL Central: Cubs (28), Brewers (1)
NL West: Dodgers (29)
NL WCs: Brewers and Rockies (Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Mets, Phillies, and Atlanta also received votes)

AL Champion: Astros (12), Cleveland (8), Yankees (7), Red Sox (2)
NL Champion: Cubs (11), Nationals (10), Dodgers (8)

World Series Champion: Astros (8), Cleveland (7), Cubs (4), Dodgers (4), Yankees (3), Red Sox (2), Nationals (1)

AL MVP: Mike Trout (14), Carlos Correa (3), Jose Ramirez (2), Manny Machado (2), Francisco Lindor (2), Gary Sanchez (2), Aaron Judge (2), Jose Altuve (1), Giancarlo Stanton (1)

NL MVP: Bryce Harper (11), Nolan Arenado (6), Kris Bryant (3), Joey Votto (3), Paul Goldschmidt (1), Corey Seager (1), Anthony Rendon (1), Anthony Rizzo (1), Tommy Pham (1), Eric Hosmer (1)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (13), Corey Kluber (6), Luis Severino (5), Justin Verlander (4), Carlos Carrasco (1)

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (13), Max Scherzer (8), Stephen Strasburg (5), Kyle Hendricks (2), Noah Syndergaard (1)

AL Rookie: Shohei Ohtani (11), Gleyber Torres (5), Willie Calhoun (4), Michael Kopech (2), A.J. Puk (2), Anthony Santander (1), Chance Sisco (1), Franklin Barreto (1), Willy Adames (1), Eloy Jimenez (1)

NL Rookie: Ronald Acuna (20), Lewis Brinson (4), Scott Kingery (3), Walker Buehler (1), Ryan McMahon (1)
Chad Thornburg presents the predictions from "more than 50 experts from the and MLB Network universe":
American League East: Yankees
These two teams are extremely evenly matched, and the news on Monday that Yankees first baseman Greg Bird will miss 6-8 weeks, because of right foot surgery closes whatever the perceived gap already was. ...

AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels
The Red Sox may not be favored in their own division, but our survey gives them very strong odds to make the postseason as the AL's top Wild Card team, receiving the most votes of any Wild Card candidate in either league. ...

AL champion: Yankees
The Yankees came within one win of the World Series last year, and our experts predict their splashy offseason moves are enough to push them over the edge in 2018. The Astros, of course, aren't going anywhere; they were named back-to-back AL champs on a number of ballots ...

World Series champion: Astros
It may seem weird to have the Astros as World Series champs when our panel picked the Yankees to win the AL, but that's how close the vote was. So while New York got 17 votes to win the pennant (to Houston's 13), many of those voters chose an NL team to win the Fall Classic. As a result, the Astros narrowly edged the Dodgers and Yankees by one vote as this year's World Series favorite among our experts.
Bob Nightengale of USAToday offers "a half-dozen bold predictions":
The Yankees won't win the AL East

From 1 to 25 - with a handful of potential stars lurking in the minor leagues - the Yankees are solidly built. Yet the Yankees are not invulnerable. ...

Judge, in his first full season in the majors, showed he's prone to an extended cold spell. Certainly, his 55-game tailspin (.185, 84 strikeouts in 189 at-bats) after the All-Star break can partially be attributed to that balky left shoulder. ...

Big bodies and big swings can be high-maintenance, however, and a 2018 looking exactly like 2017 for either is not guaranteed. ...

And then there are the Red Sox. It's easy to forget Boston is the reigning division champ and has a healthy David Price from the jump.
Three of Nightengale's other scenarios: "Mike Trout muscles up for 50 home runs ... Marlins will flirt with all-time loss record ... Astros will put away the AL West by June".
Fangraphs' projected standings:
           W    L   RS/G   RA/G   RunDiff
Yankees   95   67   5.28   4.40     143
Red Sox   93   69   4.45     123
That slim difference in runs scored per game works out to 11.34 runs over the course of the season (855.36 to 844.02).

The runs allowed difference is only 7.1 runs over 162 games (712.8 to 720.9).
Sports Illustrated (8 writers):

AL East: Yankees (8)
AL Central: Indians (8)
AL West: Astros (8)
AL WCs: Red Sox (7), Twins (4), Angels (3), Rangers, Athletics (1)

NL East: Nationals (8)
NL Central: Cubs (8)
NL West: Dodgers (8)
NL WCs: Cardinals (5), Diamondbacks (4), Brewers (4), Mets (2), Rockies (1)

ALCS: Yankees (5), Astros (3)
NLCS: Cubs (4), Nationals, Dodgers (2)

World Series: Cubs (3), Astros (2), Dodgers (1), Nationals (1), Yankees (1)
Cubs over Yankees in 7
Cubs over Yankees in 6
Dodgers over Yankees in 6
Nationals over Yankees in 7
Astros over Nationals in 7
Astros over Dodgers in 7
Cubs over Astros in 7
Yankees over Cubs in 6
Chicago Tribune (4 writers):

AL East: Yankees (4)
AL Central: Cleveland (4)
AL West: Astros (4)
AL WCs: Angels (4), Red Sox (3), Twins (1)

NL East: Nationals (4)
NL Central: Cubs (4)
NL West: Dodgers (3), Rockies (1)
NL WCs: Diamondbacks, Cardinals (2), Dodgers (1), Brewers (1), Giants (1), Mets (1)

AL Pennant: Astros (2), Cleveland (1), Yankees (1)
NL Pennant: Cubs (2), Dodgers (1), Nationals (1)

World Series: Astros (1), Cubs (1), Dodgers (1), Nationals (1)

AL MVP: Mike Trout (2), Jose Altuve (1), Aaron Judge (1)
NL MVP: Anthony Rizzo (2), Nolan Arenado (1), Kris Bryant (1)

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (2), Corey Kluber (1), Justin Verlander (1)
NY Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg (3), Clayton Kershaw (1)

AL Rookie: Austin Hays (1), Willie Calhoun (1), Michael Kopech (1), Gleyber Torres (1)
NL Rookie: Roland Acuna (2), J.P. Crawford (1), Lewis Brinson (1)

AL Manager: Terry Francona (1), Bob Melvin (1), Mike Scioscia (1), Aaron Boone (1)
NL Manager: Dave Martinez (2), Bud Black (1), Mickey Callaway (1)
The Sporting News' Ryan Fagan posts "18 thoughts about baseball in 2018":
2. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge will not combine for 100 homers. For some reason, some people will see that as a failure. The Yankees will win the AL East, though. ...

4. Mike Trout will win the AL MVP award. I like going out on limbs. ...

8. The Nationals will not win the World Series in their final year with Bryce Harper ... I'm sure it will be avert-your-eyes painful. ...

14. The pitch clock ... will cause more than a few veterans to be highly annoyed. ...

15. Bryce Harper will be the 2018 NL MVP. And then he'll sign an insane contract (north of $400 million) somewhere other than D.C. next offseason, almost certainly before the calendar turns to 2019. ...
John Harper, New York Daily News:
There is almost nothing harder to predict than which teams will survive the crapshoot that is the postseason, but if I don't say so myself, I'm on a roll after calling the Astros over the Dodgers in this same space a year ago. Not to mention Jose Altuve as AL MVP. ...

So for what it's worth, I'm picking the Yankees to survive the AL playoffs, the Cubs to find that extra gear they were missing last year, and Aaron Boone to outmanage Joe Maddon in another classic World Series. ...

Top 10 Bold Predictions for the 2018 season. ...

1. Yankees Win Championship No. 28
2. Judge and Stanton Out-homer Mantle and Maris [116 to 115]
6. Trout, Altuve, Judge, Stanton Do Not Win AL MVP ...
8. DeGrom wins NL Cy Young/Sale AL
9. Boone Wins AL Manager of the Year ..
New York Post (7 writers):

Five writers pick the Yankees to win the East, with Ken Davidoff and Mike Puma picking the Red Sox.

Three of the seven picked Chris Sale as the AL Cy Young winner.

Only one writer picked the Yankees to win the AL pennant.

Pete Caldera, Yankees beat writer: Yankees (94-68) win the East, beat the Red Sox in the ALCS, and lose the World Series to the Dodgers. Chris Sale wins the AL Cy Young and Miguel Andujar of the Yankees is the AL Rookie of the Year.

Matt Ehalt, Mets beat writer: Yankees (95-67) win the East, but lose the World Series to the Dodgers. The Red Sox lose to the Astros in the ALDS. Sale wins the AL Cy Young.
Baltimore Sun:

AL East: The four writers are split, with Jon Meoli and Peter Schmuck picking the Red Sox and Eduardo A. Encina and Josh Land siding with the Yankees.

AL Pennant: Encina and Land pick the Yankees, while Schmuck says the Red Sox will defeat the Yankees on their way to the World Series.

World Series: Schmuck (I like this guy) says the Red Sox will defeat the Dodgers. Encina says Yankees over Dodgers and Land has the Yankees over the Cubs. Meoli picks the Nationals over the Dodgers.

Meoli picks J.D. Martinez as the AL MVP and Schmuck has Sale winning the AL Cy Young. Schmuck (well, not unreservedly) and Land have Giancarlo Stanton as the AL MVP. Encina picks Luis Severino to win the AL Cy Young.

1 comment:

PK said...

Everyone has forgotten about Mookie Betts. Not a single vote for MVP up there. People are going to be slapping their foreheads wonder how they forgot about him when he is once again among the best in baseball.