First Yankees Series -- No Pedro. Terry Francona will not use today's off-day to give Pedro Martinez an extra day of rest. Which means Martinez will not pitch against the Yankees this weekend. Instead, the Sox will skip Bronson Arroyo's spot and Pedro will pitch against Baltimore on Thursday. ... Francona: "It doesn't mean the season's over. ... We're not skipping him. We're just pitching them in order."
Does anyone else think there will at least one New York media yahoo who will claim Martinez is ducking the Yankees after last fall's ALCS? Hell, we'll probably hear it on Fox this Friday night. Will this/these mediots realize that if Martinez faced the Yankees this Friday, he would miss the series the following week at Yankee Stadium? Will they realize that by setting up his rotation this way, Francona is pitching Martinez in the Bronx -- on April 25 in the series finale -- and not in Fenway? I have my doubts, but we'll see.
The match-ups (once we get through playing the Orioles again):
Friday: Schilling/Contreras
Saturday: Arroyo (7 days rest)/Mussina
Sunday: Lowe/Brown
Monday: Wakefield/Vazquez
Steven Krasner notes that Ortiz could have been "a spectator by the time his spot in the batting order rolled around in the 12th if Francona had gone by the mythical 'book' used by most managers." In the 8th, with a man on first and one out and the Sox trailing 4-2, LHP Valerio De Los Santos was brought in to face Ortiz. De Los Santos had struck out Ortiz the previous night, but Francona kept Ellis Burks on the bench. Ortiz singled to right, part of the rally that closed the gap to 4-3. ... In the 9th, Ortiz faced LHP Jason Kershner with a runner at second and two outs. He flew out to deep center.
Manny: "I told David before he went to home plate, I said, 'Hey! Finish this, man. We don't get paid overtime.'" ... Ortiz to Millar in the 12th: "Who are they going to bring in to face me now? All their lefties are gone." ... Francona said he and Dave Jauss had talked about Ortiz "against their left-handers. I felt like the lefties they had were not of a style for us to make a move with David. Jauss backed me up." So Ortiz was still in the lineup against Aquilino Lopez in the 12th. ... All of this is good for me to remember because there were several moves yesterday that had me shaking my head. And I'm determined to give Tito some slack, at least until May 1.
Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star says Carlos Tosca (who used 7 pitchers yesterday) is overmanaging his pen: "JP Ricciardi cobbled together an experienced relief corps with success in the big leagues. ... Carlos, forget about head-to-head stats. Some of these dudes can pitch an entire inning without screwing up. They did it elsewhere. They can do it here."
Curt Schilling: "My performance? Disappointing. I was disappointed. Coming off the heels of Pedro's gem (Saturday) night, you like to maintain that momentum. But as disappointed as I was when I came out of the game, it's a wash now. It's gone. I pitched today and we won, so it makes it all good." ... Scott Williamson was held out with a sore elbow and Francona was determined not to use Mike Timlin yesterday. Williamson: "It's just been a little tender since (Thursday night), that's all. You can pitch with it. It's just a precautionary thing." (This explains some of Francona's thinking.)
Mark Bellhorn (5-8 lifetime against Jays starter Miguel Batista) led off Sunday. Despite a .174 batting average, ten walks have boosted his OBP to .424. ... Millar's Diary focuses on Manny, who has either scored or knocked in a run in all seven games. ... Byung-Hyun Kim will pitch a two-inning simulated game today in Fort Myers. ... Tests on Ramiro Mendoza's shoulder revealed no structural problems. ... John Tomase notes that Pedro's seven strikeouts came on pitches clocked at: 89, 76, 75, 78, 90, 89 and 91.
April 12, 2004
April 11, 2004
Ain't We Lucky We Got Him? David "Florida" Ortiz provides some Good Times at Fenway. His 2-run home run in the 12th gave the Red Sox 6-4 win over the Blue Jays. It also saved the Sunday bacon of Terry Francona who made a few (dare I say it?) Gumpesque moves -- not having Varitek bunt in the 10th and letting Bobby "BM" Jones throw 8 pitches (all of them balls; what a surprise!) to start the Toronto 11th were particularly egregious. Mark Malaska mopped up Jones's mess and kept things quiet until Ortizzle unloaded in fine style. Box.
Any More Questions? That's how Bob Hohler begins his game story. He also quotes Gabe Kapler: "I just hope people recognize that you can't panic when he doesn't have an incredible night. It's unfair to Pedro to take a decent night and turn it into a nightmare. He sets such a high standard for himself that it's difficult for people to appreciate it when he has just an OK night for Pedro, which is a tremendous night for many, many people around the league."
Although only a few of his pitches topped 90 mph, Martinez dominated the Jays. His curveball -- MIA in Baltimore -- was especially sharp. In the 6th and 7th innings, he threw only 8 and 9 pitches, respectively. That allowed him to pitch into the 8th, at which point Keith Foulke needed only 11 pitches to get the final 4 outs. The crowd was roaring -- chanting "Ped-!ro, Ped-ro!" -- and exploding on every strike call. And this was only the sixth game of the season.
Terry Francona was booed when he went to get Martinez after he struck out Catalanotto, but it was the right move. "Even before the inning started I had determined that I would go to Foulke before Wells batted." Francona on leadoff man Cesar Crespo: "I like the idea of a left-handed bat facing Halladay ... Crespo can bunt, he can run, and this way it doesn't throw the rest of the lineup into chaos."
Boston has to place Daubach on waivers within the next 10 days, then another team would have 48 hours to claim him. Epstein said Daubach would be willing to join Pawtucket if he is not claimed. "[I]t's a move we had to make. ... We can't be in a situation where if we go to extra innings, all of a sudden, boom, we don't have anyone to take the ball."
Damon was greeted at the players' parking lot by a group of fans wearing long wigs, fake beards and "Damon's Disciples" T-shirts (with "We have Jesus on our side" printed on them). X-rays of Damon's left knee showed no bone damage. He will likely return Tuesday. ... At the end of Edes's Baseball Notes column is a cool story of how Daubach met his wife Christine in Baltimore. ... Baseball Primer's Looking Forward To 2004: Red Sox and Yankees. ... Statistical analysis in baseball goes back to Henry Chadwick in the 1860s.
A nervous Curt Schilling faces his former Arizona teammate Miguel Batista at 2:05 pm.
Although only a few of his pitches topped 90 mph, Martinez dominated the Jays. His curveball -- MIA in Baltimore -- was especially sharp. In the 6th and 7th innings, he threw only 8 and 9 pitches, respectively. That allowed him to pitch into the 8th, at which point Keith Foulke needed only 11 pitches to get the final 4 outs. The crowd was roaring -- chanting "Ped-!ro, Ped-ro!" -- and exploding on every strike call. And this was only the sixth game of the season.
Terry Francona was booed when he went to get Martinez after he struck out Catalanotto, but it was the right move. "Even before the inning started I had determined that I would go to Foulke before Wells batted." Francona on leadoff man Cesar Crespo: "I like the idea of a left-handed bat facing Halladay ... Crespo can bunt, he can run, and this way it doesn't throw the rest of the lineup into chaos."
Boston has to place Daubach on waivers within the next 10 days, then another team would have 48 hours to claim him. Epstein said Daubach would be willing to join Pawtucket if he is not claimed. "[I]t's a move we had to make. ... We can't be in a situation where if we go to extra innings, all of a sudden, boom, we don't have anyone to take the ball."
Damon was greeted at the players' parking lot by a group of fans wearing long wigs, fake beards and "Damon's Disciples" T-shirts (with "We have Jesus on our side" printed on them). X-rays of Damon's left knee showed no bone damage. He will likely return Tuesday. ... At the end of Edes's Baseball Notes column is a cool story of how Daubach met his wife Christine in Baltimore. ... Baseball Primer's Looking Forward To 2004: Red Sox and Yankees. ... Statistical analysis in baseball goes back to Henry Chadwick in the 1860s.
A nervous Curt Schilling faces his former Arizona teammate Miguel Batista at 2:05 pm.
This PDB Goes to 11. The White House has released a slightly redacted copy of the August 6, 2001 PDB (pdf). There is some damning information and it exposes some more White House lies, but there is nothing that would warrant the kind of resistance the administration has shown in keeping the memo away from anyone, no matter how high his or her security clearance. Why?
Well, the August 6 PDB might actually be 11½ pages long -- and we are simply being thrown a bone. An October 2002 story in the German weekly Die Zeit states that the PDB was actually 11½ pages long, not the 1½ pages usually reported (and released). ... The article can be read here. A snip:
"Crawford, Aug. 6, 2001. U.S. president George W. Bush is on vacation. He wants to spend the whole month at his ranch in Texas. Every morning, however, he still receives his Presidential Daily Brief, or PDB, wherein the CIA informs the president about the country's security situation. On this morning, the report is straight from the CIA director. His PDB runs 11 and one-half printed pages, instead of the usual two to three, and carries the title, "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." Therein the CIA chief explains that al Qaeda has decided to carry out attacks within the United States, and that presumably members of the terrorist organization have been in the country for some time. It is unclear whether the CIA director informed the president about the statements of arrested al Qaeda members. According to their confessions, the terrorist organization for some time has been thinking about hijacking planes and using them as missiles."
Some people have wondered if the article includes a typo -- and 11½ really should be 1½.
First, there is another reference to this PDB being 10-12 pages long in the New York Times of November 11, 2003: "People call it a lot of things: the world's most exclusive newspaper, a supersecret product of the Central Intelligence Agency and a document so sensitive that widespread dissemination would endanger lives. ... Whatever the definition, the document is the innocuously named President's Daily Brief, a 10- to 12-page report produced overnight by the CIA. In recent weeks, it has become the hottest property in Washington. Two powerful bodies are demanding to see it: the nonpartisan commission investigating the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the Senate Intelligence Committee..."
Second, in a discussion of the memo at Democratic Underground, the original German article was found. The key sentence: "Sein PDB-Papier hat statt der sonst üblichen zwei bis drei diesmal elfeinhalb bedruckte Seiten und trägt die Überschrift Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." ... One poster comments: "The elfeinhalb highlighted translates as eleven and a half. Impossible to get a 'one' out of that." Someone else offers a literal translation: "His PDB-Paper has instead of the otherwise usual two to three this time eleven-and-a-half printed pages and bears the title Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S."... A third poster: "I speak German not fluently, but enough to get by. It definitely says 11.5 printed pages, normally 2 or 3."
So. What are the chances the media will press the White House to clear up this discrepancy?
I'd also like to see this memo: "One such CIA briefing, in July 2001, was particularly chilling and prophetic. It predicted that Osama bin Laden was about to launch a terrorist strike 'in the coming weeks,' the congressional investigators found. The intelligence briefing went on to say: 'The attack will be spectacular and designed to inflict mass casualties against U.S. facilities or interests. Attack preparations have been made. Attack will occur with little or no warning.' ... (One source says the recipients of the briefing included Bush himself.)"
Quote of the Day: "I will not permit any course that leaves America undefended." Bush, August 29, 2001 speech to the American Legion.
Well, the August 6 PDB might actually be 11½ pages long -- and we are simply being thrown a bone. An October 2002 story in the German weekly Die Zeit states that the PDB was actually 11½ pages long, not the 1½ pages usually reported (and released). ... The article can be read here. A snip:
"Crawford, Aug. 6, 2001. U.S. president George W. Bush is on vacation. He wants to spend the whole month at his ranch in Texas. Every morning, however, he still receives his Presidential Daily Brief, or PDB, wherein the CIA informs the president about the country's security situation. On this morning, the report is straight from the CIA director. His PDB runs 11 and one-half printed pages, instead of the usual two to three, and carries the title, "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." Therein the CIA chief explains that al Qaeda has decided to carry out attacks within the United States, and that presumably members of the terrorist organization have been in the country for some time. It is unclear whether the CIA director informed the president about the statements of arrested al Qaeda members. According to their confessions, the terrorist organization for some time has been thinking about hijacking planes and using them as missiles."
Some people have wondered if the article includes a typo -- and 11½ really should be 1½.
First, there is another reference to this PDB being 10-12 pages long in the New York Times of November 11, 2003: "People call it a lot of things: the world's most exclusive newspaper, a supersecret product of the Central Intelligence Agency and a document so sensitive that widespread dissemination would endanger lives. ... Whatever the definition, the document is the innocuously named President's Daily Brief, a 10- to 12-page report produced overnight by the CIA. In recent weeks, it has become the hottest property in Washington. Two powerful bodies are demanding to see it: the nonpartisan commission investigating the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and the Senate Intelligence Committee..."
Second, in a discussion of the memo at Democratic Underground, the original German article was found. The key sentence: "Sein PDB-Papier hat statt der sonst üblichen zwei bis drei diesmal elfeinhalb bedruckte Seiten und trägt die Überschrift Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S." ... One poster comments: "The elfeinhalb highlighted translates as eleven and a half. Impossible to get a 'one' out of that." Someone else offers a literal translation: "His PDB-Paper has instead of the otherwise usual two to three this time eleven-and-a-half printed pages and bears the title Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S."... A third poster: "I speak German not fluently, but enough to get by. It definitely says 11.5 printed pages, normally 2 or 3."
So. What are the chances the media will press the White House to clear up this discrepancy?
I'd also like to see this memo: "One such CIA briefing, in July 2001, was particularly chilling and prophetic. It predicted that Osama bin Laden was about to launch a terrorist strike 'in the coming weeks,' the congressional investigators found. The intelligence briefing went on to say: 'The attack will be spectacular and designed to inflict mass casualties against U.S. facilities or interests. Attack preparations have been made. Attack will occur with little or no warning.' ... (One source says the recipients of the briefing included Bush himself.)"
Quote of the Day: "I will not permit any course that leaves America undefended." Bush, August 29, 2001 speech to the American Legion.
April 10, 2004
Red Sox 4, Blue Jays 1. All is good.
Pedro is The Man! Manny, Ortizzle and Bellhorn all go deep. Foulke nails it down.
Pedro is The Man! Manny, Ortizzle and Bellhorn all go deep. Foulke nails it down.
A Clean Slate. I could bitch about a lot of things right now. Like Malaska should have started the 8th, Burks shouldn't be hitting third, Kapler should get more time in RF than Millar, and Tito should resist the impulse to overmanage (he may be nervous, which is understandable). ... But I'm going to write off yesterday's loss as an ugly by-product of no sleep and turn the page tonight.
There is a lot of bad news, though. Damon fouled a ball off his left knee yesterday and left the game with a golf-ball size bruise. "I can't move. I'm probably slower than Millar right now." Damon will likely miss two games, but hopes to rise on the third day. ... Mendoza was put on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder tendinitis and Malaska was called up from Pawtucket. It turns out Malaska last threw in a simulated game on Tuesday (he didn't pitch in the PawSox opener Thursday). He damn well could have thrown more than 10 pitches on Friday.
Arroyo on his start: "I was definitely disappointed, especially knowing those guys got back so early. I wished I had kept the score a little bit lower. If we would have squeaked it out it would have been a little bit better. ... I didn't feel as well as I would have liked ... I didn't have my best stuff out there, but that's going to happen a lot, especially if you go out there 35 times."
It's nice to see the Yankees losing. Brown and Vazquez have been magnificent, but Mussina has struggled, Contreras has never shown he can be consistent and DePaula stumbled out of the gate today. New York managed only four hits and lost their second in a row to Chicago (9-3 and 7-3). They are 3-4.
High praise for the right field roof seats. ... Pedro and Halladay at 7:05 pm.
There is a lot of bad news, though. Damon fouled a ball off his left knee yesterday and left the game with a golf-ball size bruise. "I can't move. I'm probably slower than Millar right now." Damon will likely miss two games, but hopes to rise on the third day. ... Mendoza was put on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder tendinitis and Malaska was called up from Pawtucket. It turns out Malaska last threw in a simulated game on Tuesday (he didn't pitch in the PawSox opener Thursday). He damn well could have thrown more than 10 pitches on Friday.
Arroyo on his start: "I was definitely disappointed, especially knowing those guys got back so early. I wished I had kept the score a little bit lower. If we would have squeaked it out it would have been a little bit better. ... I didn't feel as well as I would have liked ... I didn't have my best stuff out there, but that's going to happen a lot, especially if you go out there 35 times."
It's nice to see the Yankees losing. Brown and Vazquez have been magnificent, but Mussina has struggled, Contreras has never shown he can be consistent and DePaula stumbled out of the gate today. New York managed only four hits and lost their second in a row to Chicago (9-3 and 7-3). They are 3-4.
High praise for the right field roof seats. ... Pedro and Halladay at 7:05 pm.
Wow! Check out these two articles from Asia Times regarding the 9/11 investigation. ... I know most of this stuff from my own research, but it is amazing to see it all laid out in a mainstream venue. ... The US media may one day report these facts, but we'll probably be a lot older or dead when it happens.
One tidbit: Two of the defendants in the $1 trillion lawsuit filed in August 2002 by the families of the victims of September 11 are former business partners of Commission chairman Thomas Kean. One of those men -- Saudi billionaire Khalid bin Mahfouz -- is Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law. Kean severed his ties to bin Mahfouz only three weeks before Bush appointed him to head the Commission.
One tidbit: Two of the defendants in the $1 trillion lawsuit filed in August 2002 by the families of the victims of September 11 are former business partners of Commission chairman Thomas Kean. One of those men -- Saudi billionaire Khalid bin Mahfouz -- is Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law. Kean severed his ties to bin Mahfouz only three weeks before Bush appointed him to head the Commission.
The August 6 PDB. Washington Post: "The classified briefing delivered to President Bush five weeks before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks featured information about ongoing al Qaeda activities within the United States, including signs of a terror support network, indications of hijacking preparations and plans for domestic attacks using explosives, according to sources who have seen the document and a review of official accounts and media reports over the past two years." ... New York Times: "President Bush was told more than a month before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, that supporters of Osama bin Laden planned an attack within the United States with explosives and wanted to hijack airplanes, a government official said Friday.
If you've been paying attention, this ain't news. Way back on May 19, 2002: "The top-secret briefing memo presented to President Bush on Aug. 6 carried the headline, 'Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US,' and was primarily focused on recounting al Qaeda's past efforts to attack and infiltrate the United States, senior administration officials said."
So we see the media reported on this almost 2 years ago, but then promptly ignored it or "forgot" it existed -- one quick mention and then own the meory hole -- covering up for the Bush administration as long as they could. ... Damn liberal media.
The evolution of this document has been fascinating.
1. White House says the document is so sensitive that even the Congressional Joint Inquiry into 9/11 cannot see it.
2. White House refuses to allow the 9/11 Commission to see it.
3. White House agrees to let two members of Commission see it at the White House.
4. White House agrees to let all 10 members of Commission see it.
5. White House refuses to declassify PDB.
6. White House agrees to declassify PDB.
7. White House may release parts of the memo publicly.
And these guys accuse Kerry of flip-flopping?
If you've been paying attention, this ain't news. Way back on May 19, 2002: "The top-secret briefing memo presented to President Bush on Aug. 6 carried the headline, 'Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US,' and was primarily focused on recounting al Qaeda's past efforts to attack and infiltrate the United States, senior administration officials said."
So we see the media reported on this almost 2 years ago, but then promptly ignored it or "forgot" it existed -- one quick mention and then own the meory hole -- covering up for the Bush administration as long as they could. ... Damn liberal media.
The evolution of this document has been fascinating.
1. White House says the document is so sensitive that even the Congressional Joint Inquiry into 9/11 cannot see it.
2. White House refuses to allow the 9/11 Commission to see it.
3. White House agrees to let two members of Commission see it at the White House.
4. White House agrees to let all 10 members of Commission see it.
5. White House refuses to declassify PDB.
6. White House agrees to declassify PDB.
7. White House may release parts of the memo publicly.
And these guys accuse Kerry of flip-flopping?
As Troops Die, Bush Tapes Appearance On Fishing Show. Under a recent headline -- "12 Marines killed" -- we learn that Bush held a 20-minute telephone conference call to discuss the slaughter of Americans in Iraq. See? He is too working! ... "On Saturday, Bush and his father were to go fishing at the ranch's bass pond with a crew from the Outdoor Life Network's 'Fishing with Roland Martin.' The White House approached the network about coming to film Bush, who is eager to cultivate an image as a sportsman with the millions of voters who hunt and fish."
Bush is now on his "33rd visit to his ranch since [taking office, totaling all or part of 233 days] ... Adding his 78 visits to Camp David and his five visits to Kennebunkport, Maine, Bush has spent all or part of 500 days in office at one of his three retreats, or more than 40 percent of his presidency."
Catherine Austin Fitts, Former Assistant Secretary of Housing under George HW Bush to Condoleezza Rice: "You are a liar. ... You are guilty of criminal gross negligence. If you want to catch a terrorist today, you need look no further than your own mirror." ... And Uggabuuga on Rice.
Bush is now on his "33rd visit to his ranch since [taking office, totaling all or part of 233 days] ... Adding his 78 visits to Camp David and his five visits to Kennebunkport, Maine, Bush has spent all or part of 500 days in office at one of his three retreats, or more than 40 percent of his presidency."
Catherine Austin Fitts, Former Assistant Secretary of Housing under George HW Bush to Condoleezza Rice: "You are a liar. ... You are guilty of criminal gross negligence. If you want to catch a terrorist today, you need look no further than your own mirror." ... And Uggabuuga on Rice.
Blue Jays 10, Red Sox 5. Annoying -- highly annoying. Arroyo was decent enough, I suppose -- he did leave with a 5-4 lead. I'm curious why Malaska pitched only the 7th (a 1-2-3 10-pitch inning) and an overworked Timlin was trotted out in the 8th to piss the game away (with 37 pitches).
I hope Tito is not of the same "why use two pitchers when you can use four" school as his Predecessor. It seemed that during the Orioles series, he was. Although if Embree was going to come into Friday's game anyway -- was he slotted for the 9th? -- he should have been up in the pen earlier than the seventh batter in the 8th. ... I am confident that, unlike his Predecessor, Francona will learn from his mistakes.
I also hope everyone went to bed early last night. ... More later.
I hope Tito is not of the same "why use two pitchers when you can use four" school as his Predecessor. It seemed that during the Orioles series, he was. Although if Embree was going to come into Friday's game anyway -- was he slotted for the 9th? -- he should have been up in the pen earlier than the seventh batter in the 8th. ... I am confident that, unlike his Predecessor, Francona will learn from his mistakes.
I also hope everyone went to bed early last night. ... More later.
April 9, 2004
Orioles 3, Red Sox 2 (13). Ugh. Not fun ... but after reading the papers and comments in the game thread, I'm not sure what could have been done differently. Jones got squeezed in the 13th, but couldn't be expected to get any close calls because he simply wasn't throwing strikes. Mendoza was the last reliever in the pen and there was some doubt about whether he was available or not. So Jones ended up being Brenley-ized, working a second inning for the second straight night. His last pitch of the game was his 78th in two days.
There will always be plenty of second-guessing in a 13-inning game. In the 7th, with the game tied 2-2, Francona had Cesar Crespo bat for Doug Mirabelli. Baltimore's starter LHP Matt Riley had begun the inning by walking McCarty and Bellhorn and was up to 98 pitches. Crespo was bunting, something Mirabelli could have done. And if Francona felt he needed to pull Mirabelli, he could have batted Varitek. Crespo failed to get the bunt down and struck out. Varitek batted for the next scheduled hitter -- Pokey Reese -- thus removing Boston's best infielder. Riley walked Varitek to load the bases. BJ Ryan came out of the pen and retired Damon and Mueller on soft line drives. ... Did Francona panic too early? Hard to say, but I think so. However, in his defense, Boston was not hitting. The Sox did not record their fourth hit of the game until the 11th inning.
In the 11th, Ramirez walked with one out. Millar singled to left center and Manny hustled to third. Francona then pulled him for pinch-runner Kapler. Buddy Groom entered the game. Ortiz lined out to second and after Bellhorn walked to load the bases, Crespo struck out. Francona: "I was just trying to win the game. It seemed like the right thing to do at the time. ... I figured Kapler would have a better chance to score on a short sac-fly." ... If Ramirez was quick enough to take 3rd on a ball to left center, he was probably quick enough to tag and score.
The other problem was Bobby Jones, Boston's 6th pitcher of the night. He allowed a lead-off single to Bigbie in the 12th, and after Roberts bunted Bigbie to second and Mora flied to center, Jones intentionally walked Tejada and retired Palmeiro on a grounder to second. ... In the 13th, Jones walked Lopez and after Bautista struck out, he walked Segui, Matos and Bigbie. ... Jones: "I wanted to throw him mostly sliders because that's the pitch that I can get lefties to roll over and get ground balls." However, after all those close pitches and walks, though, there is something to be said about simply throwing a strike and making the batter hit the ball.
Francona said it was Jones or bust. "He was our last pitcher tonight." Jones was surpised to hear that: "I wasn't the last guy." The only reliever left in the bullpen was Ramiro Mendoza, but Francona said Mendoza "made it clear to the medical staff that if we could stay away from him, we needed to." Apparently Mendoza was stiff after pitching Wednesday night. But other accounts say Mendoza wasn't stiff and would have pitched if he had been asked.
Two good things: Wakefield pitching out of man-on-2nd/none-out jams in both the first and second innings (neither runner even advanced to third); and Damon making a perfect throw home in the bottom of the 10th to complete an 8-2 double play to save the game. ... Art Martone on Opening Day at Fenway. ... The Red Sox were scheduled to leave Baltimore about 11:30 last night, but the game did not end until 11:44. The team arrived at the airport at 1:00 am, but their charter was then delayed for another four hours because of a mechanical problem.
Matchups for the Blue Jays series:
Friday: Bronson Arroyo/Ted Lilly
Saturday: Pedro Martinez/Roy Halladay
Sunday: Curt Schilling/Miguel Batista
First pitch: 3:05 pm.
There will always be plenty of second-guessing in a 13-inning game. In the 7th, with the game tied 2-2, Francona had Cesar Crespo bat for Doug Mirabelli. Baltimore's starter LHP Matt Riley had begun the inning by walking McCarty and Bellhorn and was up to 98 pitches. Crespo was bunting, something Mirabelli could have done. And if Francona felt he needed to pull Mirabelli, he could have batted Varitek. Crespo failed to get the bunt down and struck out. Varitek batted for the next scheduled hitter -- Pokey Reese -- thus removing Boston's best infielder. Riley walked Varitek to load the bases. BJ Ryan came out of the pen and retired Damon and Mueller on soft line drives. ... Did Francona panic too early? Hard to say, but I think so. However, in his defense, Boston was not hitting. The Sox did not record their fourth hit of the game until the 11th inning.
In the 11th, Ramirez walked with one out. Millar singled to left center and Manny hustled to third. Francona then pulled him for pinch-runner Kapler. Buddy Groom entered the game. Ortiz lined out to second and after Bellhorn walked to load the bases, Crespo struck out. Francona: "I was just trying to win the game. It seemed like the right thing to do at the time. ... I figured Kapler would have a better chance to score on a short sac-fly." ... If Ramirez was quick enough to take 3rd on a ball to left center, he was probably quick enough to tag and score.
The other problem was Bobby Jones, Boston's 6th pitcher of the night. He allowed a lead-off single to Bigbie in the 12th, and after Roberts bunted Bigbie to second and Mora flied to center, Jones intentionally walked Tejada and retired Palmeiro on a grounder to second. ... In the 13th, Jones walked Lopez and after Bautista struck out, he walked Segui, Matos and Bigbie. ... Jones: "I wanted to throw him mostly sliders because that's the pitch that I can get lefties to roll over and get ground balls." However, after all those close pitches and walks, though, there is something to be said about simply throwing a strike and making the batter hit the ball.
Francona said it was Jones or bust. "He was our last pitcher tonight." Jones was surpised to hear that: "I wasn't the last guy." The only reliever left in the bullpen was Ramiro Mendoza, but Francona said Mendoza "made it clear to the medical staff that if we could stay away from him, we needed to." Apparently Mendoza was stiff after pitching Wednesday night. But other accounts say Mendoza wasn't stiff and would have pitched if he had been asked.
Two good things: Wakefield pitching out of man-on-2nd/none-out jams in both the first and second innings (neither runner even advanced to third); and Damon making a perfect throw home in the bottom of the 10th to complete an 8-2 double play to save the game. ... Art Martone on Opening Day at Fenway. ... The Red Sox were scheduled to leave Baltimore about 11:30 last night, but the game did not end until 11:44. The team arrived at the airport at 1:00 am, but their charter was then delayed for another four hours because of a mechanical problem.
Matchups for the Blue Jays series:
Friday: Bronson Arroyo/Ted Lilly
Saturday: Pedro Martinez/Roy Halladay
Sunday: Curt Schilling/Miguel Batista
First pitch: 3:05 pm.
April 8, 2004
Two Thousand Years Of Willie Mays. That's the title of a short Bill James article I mentioned back on April 5. I said that it had appeared in one of his early Abstracts, but it turns out it was published much later, in The Baseball Book for 1992. (And there's a good reason why we need stats; because personal recollections can be way off the mark.) Anyway, the 2-page bit begins:
"What it is possible for a great player to do in a great year? Suppose that a great player, a Willie Mays or a Joe DiMaggio, hits in good luck for an entire season. What kind of stats could he compile? Suppose that he hits in bad luck for an entire year, what then? ... What if he played forever ... What are the limits here?"
It took James "about three days on my little home computer" to simulate 2,000 seasons of Willie Mays. Here are a few of them:
In 2,000 years, the longest hitting streak Simulated DiMaggio compiled was 48 games. ... Simulated Boggs made repeated runs at .400. In Year 358, Sim Boggs batted .425, breaking Rogers Hornsby's record by .001. James writes: "Think about it: after trying 357 times to hit .400 but failing all 357 times, the simulated Boggs not only hit .400, but cleared it with fourteen hits to spare. It's a Bob Beamon feat."
James calls this whole thing a "silly exercise," but I've always thought it was pretty cool -- and a fantastic example of what is so instructive and entertaining about James's best work. It may be silly on some level -- but it also shows us that flucuations in performance should be expected. ... Jason Giambi hit only .250 last year, but was still in the top 5 in OBP; his low batting average was nothing more than a random fluke. ... Knowing stuff like this, you can then laugh at (or ignore) broadcasters and writers who go on about 6-game hitting streaks or what some batter did in 10 at-bats against a pitcher over 5 seasons. It's completely meaningless.
This little article has always been, for me, a great reason why James should have published a "Best of" of his Abstracts/Baseball Books. ... I also wish James would reprint his very early (late 70s) self-typed and stapled Abstracts in one volume. While a lot of the information would be quite dated by now, the costs of reprinting would be minimal and I know there are thousands of fans who would snap it up sight unseen.
"What it is possible for a great player to do in a great year? Suppose that a great player, a Willie Mays or a Joe DiMaggio, hits in good luck for an entire season. What kind of stats could he compile? Suppose that he hits in bad luck for an entire year, what then? ... What if he played forever ... What are the limits here?"
It took James "about three days on my little home computer" to simulate 2,000 seasons of Willie Mays. Here are a few of them:
Year# AB R H AVG HR RBI
29 583 145 201 .345 50 127
226 562 137 203 .361 45 133
826 559 88 132 .236 21 89
1203 553 90 141 .255 16 79
1800 580 132 198 .341 50 149James concludes that it's possible for a player to hit .360 one year and .240 the next just by random chance. Mays's highest HR and RBI totals were 54 and 155, he never came close to hitting .400 and his longest batting streak was 34 games. ... James then ran 1,000 years of both DiMaggio and Wade Boggs. Here are two consecutive DiMaggio seasons:
Year# AB R H AVG HR RBI
6 592 135 200 .338 38 150
7 553 96 146 .264 18 79James: "Suppose that a real player did this ... won the MVP Award if not the triple crown, and then the next year was an ordinary player. Every explanation under the sun would be offered for his decline, and ultimately one explanation would come to be the accepted one -- he got fat and lazy after a winter of celebration, or he was affected by the absence of X, who hit behind him in his big year ... or even that he began pressing after a slow start. Do you suppose that anybody would write that he was the same player, just hitting in tougher luck? That's my point; that when a player has an off year, even a terrible year, there may not be any reason for it. It may just be the breaks of the game."In 2,000 years, the longest hitting streak Simulated DiMaggio compiled was 48 games. ... Simulated Boggs made repeated runs at .400. In Year 358, Sim Boggs batted .425, breaking Rogers Hornsby's record by .001. James writes: "Think about it: after trying 357 times to hit .400 but failing all 357 times, the simulated Boggs not only hit .400, but cleared it with fourteen hits to spare. It's a Bob Beamon feat."
James calls this whole thing a "silly exercise," but I've always thought it was pretty cool -- and a fantastic example of what is so instructive and entertaining about James's best work. It may be silly on some level -- but it also shows us that flucuations in performance should be expected. ... Jason Giambi hit only .250 last year, but was still in the top 5 in OBP; his low batting average was nothing more than a random fluke. ... Knowing stuff like this, you can then laugh at (or ignore) broadcasters and writers who go on about 6-game hitting streaks or what some batter did in 10 at-bats against a pitcher over 5 seasons. It's completely meaningless.
This little article has always been, for me, a great reason why James should have published a "Best of" of his Abstracts/Baseball Books. ... I also wish James would reprint his very early (late 70s) self-typed and stapled Abstracts in one volume. While a lot of the information would be quite dated by now, the costs of reprinting would be minimal and I know there are thousands of fans who would snap it up sight unseen.
Predictions, Part 8. Some picks from Baseball Prospectus:
BP's Michael Wolverton says the earned run -- "a lame and counterproductive attempt at solving the pitching/fielding conundrum" -- has got to go. And if the rule was being introduced for the first time today, we'd see right away how absurd it is.
First Second Third Fourth FifthJoe Sheehan on the Red Sox: "Their current edges at the back of the rotation--where I expect Bronson Arroyo to be one the season's better stories--and on the bench make the difference. ... Overall, this team is actually better than last year's, with a stronger bullpen and bench, and a deeper rotation less reliant on Pedro Martinez. For the first time since they acquired the skinny right-hander, it's possible to envision a Sox postseason appearance even if Martinez were to miss significant time to an injury. The rest of the team is that good, good enough to be called the best in the American League."
Steven Goldman Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Gary Huckabay Yankees Blue Jays Red Sox Orioles D-Rays
Rany Jazayerli Red Sox Yankees Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Chris Kahrl Red Sox Yankees Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Jonah Keri Yankees Red Sox Orioles Blue Jays D-Rays
Doug Pappas Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Dayn Perry Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Joe Sheehan Red Sox Yankees Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Nate Silver Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Ryan Wilkins Red Sox Yankees Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Mike Wolverton Yankees Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
Derek Zumsteg Red Sox Yankees Blue Jays Orioles D-Rays
World Series
Will Carroll Red Sox over Cubs
Steven Goldman Cubs over Yankees
Gary Huckabay Athletics over Phillies
Rany Jazayerli Red Sox over Astros
Chris Kahrl Red Sox over Cubs
Jonah Keri Athletics over Atlanta
Doug Pappas Astros over Athletics
Dayn Perry Yankees over Astros
Joe Sheehan Red Sox over Phillies
Nate Silver Red Sox over Phillies
Ryan Wilkins Red Sox over Phillies
Derek Zumsteg Athletics over Phillies
BP's Michael Wolverton says the earned run -- "a lame and counterproductive attempt at solving the pitching/fielding conundrum" -- has got to go. And if the rule was being introduced for the first time today, we'd see right away how absurd it is.
An Astute Observation. This should be an interesting subplot this summer. Schilling: "I have never seen -- and I'm not stereotyping everybody in Boston, there's a lot of good writers, there's good people in the media just like any other market -- but I have never seen more people out to create stories on their own in one space in my career, and that's just in this brief time. They think we're stupid, and they don't think we see and pay attention. I've never seen so many anonymous quotes from people in a shorter period of time than I have in the last three days."
After having failed with runners in scoring positions for two games, the bats finally took advantage of some Orioles mental errors last night. In the second inning, Pokey Reese, with runners at first and second and two outs, grounded a ball to Miguel Tejada's right side. Tejada looked towards third base -- in the hopes of forcing Varitek and ending the inning -- but Melvin Mora was nowhere near the bag. Tejada then whipped a throw to first, but Reese beat it out for a single that loaded the bases.
Tejada got a lot of blame for not going to first base immediately, but starter Kurt Ainsworth also failed over five batters (and 22 pitches) to notch that third out. Damon singled home two runs, Mueller singled home two more, Ortiz walked, Ramirez doubled in two runs when centerfielder Luis Matos lost his deep fly ball in the twilight, and Millar singled in the 7th run of the inning.
Derek Lowe pitched fine with the big lead. He faltered in the bottom of the second, but that may have been due to the 30-minute rally his teammates had. Lowe hit Palmeiro to start the inning and got out of a bases loaded jam when Millar made a nice diving stop and fed Lowe at first. ... Lowe allowed single runs in the 3rd and 6th. He was saved from further damage when Damon robbed David Segui of what would have been a 3-run home run. If Damon didn't reach over the left-center field fence and snag that ball, Baltimore would have closed the gap to 7-5 with only one out in the 6th. ... Lowe allowed only three fly ball outs -- and they all came in his last inning of work.
Bobby Jones took over in the 7th and surrendered a home run to Larry Bigbie on his first pitch. After that, Jones threw two innings and allowed only a walk and a single. Ramiro Mendoza pitched the 9th. He gave up a bouncing single to right to Jose Bautista (his first ML at-bat), struck out Jack Cust and got Luis Lopez to ground into a game-ending double play.
I don't understand why Francona is not having Ramirez bat third. And he's not doing a very good idea of explaining it. Is this only going to happen when Nomar is playing? There are various quotes from Manny saying he likes cleanup, but that he also doesn't care where he hits. One quote had him saying he'd like to hit 6th after Millar, so he'd see a lot of fastballs. I didn't understand that one.
Tim Wakefield/Matt Riley at 7:05 pm.
After having failed with runners in scoring positions for two games, the bats finally took advantage of some Orioles mental errors last night. In the second inning, Pokey Reese, with runners at first and second and two outs, grounded a ball to Miguel Tejada's right side. Tejada looked towards third base -- in the hopes of forcing Varitek and ending the inning -- but Melvin Mora was nowhere near the bag. Tejada then whipped a throw to first, but Reese beat it out for a single that loaded the bases.
Tejada got a lot of blame for not going to first base immediately, but starter Kurt Ainsworth also failed over five batters (and 22 pitches) to notch that third out. Damon singled home two runs, Mueller singled home two more, Ortiz walked, Ramirez doubled in two runs when centerfielder Luis Matos lost his deep fly ball in the twilight, and Millar singled in the 7th run of the inning.
Derek Lowe pitched fine with the big lead. He faltered in the bottom of the second, but that may have been due to the 30-minute rally his teammates had. Lowe hit Palmeiro to start the inning and got out of a bases loaded jam when Millar made a nice diving stop and fed Lowe at first. ... Lowe allowed single runs in the 3rd and 6th. He was saved from further damage when Damon robbed David Segui of what would have been a 3-run home run. If Damon didn't reach over the left-center field fence and snag that ball, Baltimore would have closed the gap to 7-5 with only one out in the 6th. ... Lowe allowed only three fly ball outs -- and they all came in his last inning of work.
Bobby Jones took over in the 7th and surrendered a home run to Larry Bigbie on his first pitch. After that, Jones threw two innings and allowed only a walk and a single. Ramiro Mendoza pitched the 9th. He gave up a bouncing single to right to Jose Bautista (his first ML at-bat), struck out Jack Cust and got Luis Lopez to ground into a game-ending double play.
I don't understand why Francona is not having Ramirez bat third. And he's not doing a very good idea of explaining it. Is this only going to happen when Nomar is playing? There are various quotes from Manny saying he likes cleanup, but that he also doesn't care where he hits. One quote had him saying he'd like to hit 6th after Millar, so he'd see a lot of fastballs. I didn't understand that one.
StartersThe Courant reports that Trot Nixon could start some baseball activities in the next few days. Terry Francona said Nixon "jogged for 10 minutes and did some pounding and didn't feel any pain." ... Byung-Hyun Kim threw 30 pitches off the mound Wednesday and could start a minor league rehab assignment the middle of next week.
IP H R ER BB K BF PIT
Pedro 6 7 3 2 1 5 26 93
Schilling 6 6 1 1 1 7 24 109
Lowe 6 7 2 2 2 3 26 95
18 20 6 5 4 15 2.50 ERA
Tim Wakefield/Matt Riley at 7:05 pm.
April 7, 2004
Red Sox 10, Orioles 3. A 7-run second inning. Lowe throws 6 strong innings. Ortiz smashes a 3-run home run to cap the scoring. And Jesus H. Damon goes 5-5. ... Boston is 2-1 and in sole possession of 1st place. Hallelujah!
Francona: No Pedro Problem. Tito: "I'll tell you, I wasn't that shook up about it. Yes, I talked with him this morning, and it's not an issue. I think he felt comfortable with leaving early. We have a policy, but this is not boot camp. These are grown men who work hard every day." ... And: "He was not called in on the carpet. I just wanted to make sure everyone's on the same page." ... And: "As big a deal as it was [to the media], it wasn't earth-shattering [to me]." ... I think we can put this "incident" to rest -- after some words from Bruce Allen.
Keith Foulke on his nine-pitch 9th inning: "This was more my style of pitching today. That stuff down in Florida, I'm not really sure what that was." ... Kevin Millar suffered a bloodied bridge of the nose and a swollen upper lip after colliding with Johnny Damon. He plans to play tonight. .. Manny Ramirez left yesterday's game with a right quadriceps strain and is "day to day." Ramirez said he hurt himself diving back into second base to avoid a tag after David Ortiz singled in the second inning. "I hit the ground pretty hard." ... Is the Manny batting third era over?
Hardball Times: Five questions for the Red Sox and the Yankees. ... Kaz Matsui became the 18th player to hit the first pitch he saw in the major leagues for a home run. He finished the night 3-for-3 with the homer, two doubles, three RBIs and two walks. ... After diving for a foul pop, Twins rookie catcher Joe Mauer needs arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. ... This just in: Michael Kay is still a total dick.
Derek Lowe/Kurt Ainsworth at 7:05 pm.
Keith Foulke on his nine-pitch 9th inning: "This was more my style of pitching today. That stuff down in Florida, I'm not really sure what that was." ... Kevin Millar suffered a bloodied bridge of the nose and a swollen upper lip after colliding with Johnny Damon. He plans to play tonight. .. Manny Ramirez left yesterday's game with a right quadriceps strain and is "day to day." Ramirez said he hurt himself diving back into second base to avoid a tag after David Ortiz singled in the second inning. "I hit the ground pretty hard." ... Is the Manny batting third era over?
Hardball Times: Five questions for the Red Sox and the Yankees. ... Kaz Matsui became the 18th player to hit the first pitch he saw in the major leagues for a home run. He finished the night 3-for-3 with the homer, two doubles, three RBIs and two walks. ... After diving for a foul pop, Twins rookie catcher Joe Mauer needs arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. ... This just in: Michael Kay is still a total dick.
Derek Lowe/Kurt Ainsworth at 7:05 pm.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
