October 3, 2019

Postseason Predictions Are (It Is Agreed) A Fool's Errand

ESPN: "Will the Houston Astros take home their second title in three years? Or can the Los Angeles Dodgers get over the final hurdle and take home their first championship since 1988? Or will it be a surprise team like the Washington Nationals or Minnesota Twins?" (Wait ... ESPN did not mention the Yankees?)

Vote totals of 30 "experts":
NLDS: Dodgers 26, Nationals 4
NLDS: Atlanta 20, Cardinals 10
ALDS: Astros 29, Rays 1
ALDS: Yankees 21, Twins 9
NLCS: Dodgers 23, Atlanta 3, Nationals 3, Cardinals 1
ALCS: Astros 27, Yankees 2, Twins 1
WS: Astros 19, Dodgers 6, Twins 1, Nationals 1, Cardinals 1, Atlanta 1, Yankees 1
Also, ESPN: (a) indicates that one "expert" is picking the A's in the ALDS and (b) did not bother updating Jeff Passan's answer (though the Brewers (wisely) are not mentioned in the NLDS sections):

Jesse Yomtov (USA Today): "Four teams (Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, Twins) won 100 games this year, but one seems to stand out as the favorite to win the World Series."
Bob Nightengale: Astros over Dodgers in 4.
Gabe Lacques: Astros over Dodgers in 6.
Jesse Yomtov: Astros over Nationals in 5.
Scott Boeck: Astros over Atlanta in 6.
Steve Gardner: Astros over Atlanta in 6.
Matt Snyder (CBS Sports): "One month of playoff baseball awaits ... As usual, it's worth noting that baseball is pretty unpredictable and we're bound to miss a few. Then you get to yell at us ..."

Everyone except ESPN has individual picks, but I'm going to summarize:
ALWC: Athletics 3, Rays 2 (start yelling!)
NLWC: Nationals 4, Brewers 1
ALDS: Astros 5
ALDS: Yankees 5
NLDS: Dodgers 5
NLDS: Atlanta 5
ALCS: Astros 4, Yankees 1
NLCS: Dodgers 4, Atlanta 1
WS: Astros 4, Yankees 1
Craig Calcaterra (NBC Sports): "The playoffs are weaponized randomness. The one-and-done Wild Card games are like Russian roulette, only with worse odds. ... Picking playoff winners is a fool's errand. Luckily, we here at HardballTalk are not afraid to look foolish."
ALWC: Rays 3
NLWC: Nationals 2, Brewers 1
ALDS: Astros 3
ALDS: Yankees 3
NLDS: Dodgers 3
NLDS: Atlanta 3
ALCS: Astros 3
NLCS: Atlanta 2, Dodgers 1
WS: Astros 2, Atlanta 1
Yahoo Sports: "It's a fool's errand to predict what's going to happen in postseason baseball. Nine times out of 10, you're setting yourself up to be completely wrong because the unpredictable nature of baseball is, in fact, what makes it so fun."

Yahoo's picks are in blue font on a purple background (nicked, I'm guessing, from an old Geocities site from 1996).
ALDS: Astros 6
ALDS: Twins 3, Yankees 3
NLDS: Atlanta 5, Cardinals 1
NLDS: Dodgers 5, Nationals 1
ALCS: Astros 5, Yankees 1
NLCS: Dodgers 4, Nationals 1, Atlanta 1
WS: Astros 5, Dodgers 1
The Sporting News: "The field is set, October is here. Let's have some fun. ... [P]ostseason predictions [are] a bit of a fool's errand, but we're here to offer our thoughts anyway."
ALCS: Astros 9 (over Yankees 6, Twins 3)
NLCS: Atlanta 4, Dodgers 3, Cardinals 1, Nationals 1
WS: Astros 8, Dodgers 1


GK said...

I will need your expert Baseball Historian's opinion on whether Acuna is disrespecting the game.....

"Cardinals reliever Carlos Martinez, who surrendered a home run to Acuna Jr., was upset at Acuna's home run trot.

"I simply want him to respect the game and respect me as a veteran player," Martinez told reporters. "That's it. Just play the game."

allan said...

I will need your expert Baseball Historian's opinion on whether Acuna is disrespecting the game.....

He is not. ... But he needs to learn to hustle because he's pissing off his teammates. (Perhaps he thinks he's honouring Cano by lollygagging so often.)

GK said...

I guess so!, but clearly Acuna was showing disrespect to Martinez with his trot! You see, veteran players can give up 9th inning play-off homers, that is totally allowed.