May 15, 2010

G37: Tigers 7, Red Sox 6 (12)

Red Sox - 003 120 000 000 - 6  9  0
Tigers - 001 003 020 001 - 7 10 1
Ramon Ramirez walked two of the three batters he faced in the 12th inning. The second one -- a four-pitch pass to Ramon Santiago -- forced in the winning run.

There were more walks in the game (20) than hits (19). Detroit pitchers handed out 12 passes, including seven from Willis (3.1-4-4-7-5, 86). Kevin Youkilis walked five times for the first time in his career; he reached on an error in his other plate appearance.

The Rays, Yankees, and Blue Jays all won earlier in the day.
Example
Jon Lester / Dontrelle Willis
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Drew, RF
Hall, LF
McDonald, CF
The Red Sox are 15-8 since April 20. Only the Padres (15-7) have a better record over the last 25 days.

May 14, 2010

G36: Red Sox 7, Tigers 2

Red Sox - 500 100 001 - 7 10  1
Tigers - 100 000 010 - 2 5 0
Marco Scutaro singled to start the game and Dustin Pedroia homered to left. After an out, Kevin Youkilis walked, J.D. Drew singled, and David Ortiz crushed a 450-foot three-run bomb to right center.

Ortiz led off the fourth with a solo home run to right. He struck out in last two at-bats.

Buchholz had a rough first inning (two walks and a single), but beginning with the third out in that inning, he retired 15 of 18 batters through the sixth. He walked two in the seventh and was pulled.

Bill Hall hit a pinch-hit dong in the ninth.

The Rays lost to Seattle 4-3, so Boston is again 5.5 GB. Tampa's magic number for eliminating us holds steady at 122. ... The Yankees beat the Twins 8-4.
Example
Clay Buchholz / Max Scherzer
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Drew, RF
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
McDonald, CF
Scherzer had a nice 2.62 ERA after four starts, but he has been horrible his last three times out: 13 innings, 27 hits, 21 runs, and an opponents OPS of 1.151. He began his career in Arizona in 2008, so he has never faced the Red Sox. Only Jeremy Hermida (1-for-3) and Bill Hall (2-for-3) have played against him.

Here is what current Tigers have done against Buchholz.

Tim Britton, MLB.com:
It's tough to argue against the idea that [Miguel] Cabrera has been the best hitter in the American League so far this season. He leads the league in average and RBIs and is second in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Cabrera is also kicking everyone's ass in WPA, but Justin Morneau does have a higher OPS and more Runs Created.

B-Ref Stuff: Mat Latos nearly pitched a perfect game against the Giants. It was the Padres' eighth shutout of the season. ... The most productive spot in the Giants' order this year? #8?!? (Boston's #8 spot is 4th best.)

Jays Radio Gaffe On Drew Swing

I was watching Wednesday's afternoon game on mute and Laura had the Jays radio broadcast on in the kitchen. (I meant to post this earlier, but kept forgetting.)

Jerry Howarth is in his 30th season as the team's play-by-play guy. He's got a great voice and his work is solid. But on Wednesday, he was seeing things that were not there.

The TV was lagging behind the radio by about five seconds, so in the fourth inning, when I heard him say that J.D. Drew swung and missed and almost fell down, and was trying to keep his balance, I was curious to see it "live", since Drew does not often take unhinged cuts. (Is it still live if I have already heard a description of it on the radio?)

In came Shaun Marcum's 0-1 pitch and Drew swung and missed. And .... nothing. No huge Reggie Jackson corkscrew swing, no loss of balance, no stumble. At all. Just a normal Drew swing and miss, like we have all seen dozens of times.

Later on, Howarth said Jeremy Hermida's fly ball was hit to right-center, but Vernon Wells caught it in straightaway center (or maybe a step or two towards right). That's a minor gaffe, but the Drew call was bizarre.

Also: I noted that the out-of-town-score-updater guy made a fuss that the Yankees game was over in only 2:15. His "Are you guys sitting down...?" comment seemed like overkill, but he was right to be surprised. The Yankees have played only two games (of at least nine innings) in under 2:15 since May 2005, and only four since the 2003 All-Star Break:
June 6, 2004   - 2:12
April 29, 2005 - 2:08
August 8, 2008 - 2:14
April 22, 2010 - 2:07

May 13, 2010

NPR: 4 Exile Bonus Tracks Posted

Woo-hoo!
Plundered My Soul (4:00)
Dancing In The Light (4:24)
So Divine (Aladdin Story) (4:34)
Loving Cup (Alternate Version) (5:26)
Despite my reservations, this is exciting! The ending of this alternate Loving Cup makes me think it's a different take from the other bootlegged versions. Dancing In The Light is incredibly infectious. ... Of course, the vocals are too damn high on everything.

Exile on Main Street: Pussy Galore / Phish

In the summer of 1986, Pussy Galore recorded a version of Exile on Main Street. The three-day recording
was done as a sort of gag response to Sonic Youth's often-stated intent to cover the Beatles' White Album. [Guitarist] Neil [Hagerty] knew the Stones' "Exile" well and was given the task of interpreting the record and teaching it to the rest of us. Neil would present a song to the band, we would play it a few times, then lay it down. In this manner the entire album was recorded in sequence. By side three everyone had gotten into the swing of it and we were not yet sick of the process. Recorded with the "Pussy Galore Mobile Unit," a borrowed cassette 4-track, in the PG practice space, NYC ...
Only 550 cassette copies of the extremely lo-fi, trashy, hissy mess were made. I bought #426 at See Hear on the Lower East Side soon after moving to Brooklyn. Listen! Do not expect anything even approaching decent sound quality; this tape makes the original Exile (or Metal Machine Music, for that matter) sound like a mint Steely Dan album.
Example
Phish played Exile on Main Street from start to finish during a Halloween concert last year at Festival 8 in Indio, California. Guitarist-singer Trey Anastasio:
The first thing I did was sit down and start learning, note for note, the two guitar players' licks. I really dug in. And lo and behold, there are incredible, distinct guitar lines. It's played with an attitude — that rock & roll attitude. But everybody's playing sloppy together. Sit down someday and try to play along with those drums. It's incredibly intricate. It comes off as sloppy, but it's not sloppy at all.
Also included are scans of the eight-page concert program. Phish lacks the raunch to do Exile's rockers justice, but the soulful, gospel-tinged songs are quite good. Listen (I and II)!
Example
Rocks Off
Rip This Joint
Shake Your Hips
Casino Boogie
Tumbling Dice
Sweet Virginia
Torn And Frayed
Sweet Black Angel
Loving Cup
Happy
Turd On The Run
Ventilator Blues
I Just Want To See His Face
Let It Loose
All Down The Line
Stop Breaking Down
Shine A Light
Soul Survivor

Wakefield: 2,002 Strikeouts

Tim Wakefield became the 64th pitcher in history to strike out 2,000 batters yesterday when he got Vernon Wells swinging to end the fourth inning.

Of Wakefield's 2,002 career Ks, 1,892 have come with the Red Sox. Only Fat Billy has more (2,590); Pedro Martinez is third (1,683).
It's a tribute to longevity and I feel very blessed. Ive been able to wear this uniform for a long time ... The fans have been behind me the whole time I've been here. I'm very proud to be able to come out and not only get an ovation for that accomplishment or (for) a great start like my last one. They acknowledge great work and I'm honored to be able to tip my cap to them.
Mike Cameron hopes to return to the lineup for the Yankees series next Monday. Fellow injured outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury may begin a rehab assignment in a few days.

David Ortiz is hitting .310 with a .999 OPS in eight May games.
I feel great right now. I feel the way I like to be right now.
Scrolling through Ortiz's 2010 splits, I see that he is 0-for-17 in late & close* situations. After the sixth inning in all games, he is 3-for-26.

(*: PAs in the 7th or later with the Sox tied, ahead by one, or with the tying run at least on deck.)

Boston finished the LAA-MFY-TOR homestand with a 7-3 record. While the Sox scored an average of 6.6 runs per game, in half of the games they scored only 2 or 3 runs (1-4 record in those games). Slash stats:
Before homestand: .260/.333/.438/.770
During homestand: .297/.392/.478/.870
J.D. Drew managed to take the bat off his shoulder enough times to hit .469 (with an OBP of .526) in the three series.
Example
One more screenshot of pitch that Ortiz "struck out" on, which was Ball 5 of the at-bat.Pitch/fx had the pitch 8.1" outside the rulebook zone.

May 12, 2010

G35: Blue Jays 3, Red Sox 2

Blue Jays - 000 010 200 - 3  6  0
Red Sox - 000 000 002 - 2 6 0
See that red square on the left? That was the pitch that home plate umpire Dale Scott called David Ortiz out on in the bottom of the ninth inning. It should have been Ball 4.

Here is Gameday (pitch 7):
The blown call changed the dynamics of the inning tremendously. With one out and the Red Sox down by three runs, facing Kevin Gregg, Kevin Youkilis singled and J.D. Drew doubled Yook in to make it 3-1. Ortiz was the potential tying run, but instead of having men at first and second and one out, Boston had the one runner at second and two outs.

[Also, a called Strike 2 to Drew on the pitch before his double was almost as bad. That also should have been Ball 4. As SoSHer radsoxfan put it, "This ump is approaching NBA level referee incompetence out there." (Read)

It makes you wonder, especially when you can see how much Scott favoured the Toronto pitchers all afternoon, on both sides of the plate, in this graphic. Jays pitchers got 18 calls on pitches outside the strike zone to Boston's 2. Is Scott BFF with Joe West?]

How much did the obviously wrong call hurt? In nearly 30 years of data found here, home teams down by 2 in the bottom of the 9th, with 1st/2nd and 1 out -- the situation Boston should have had if Scott had made the right call -- came back and won 17.1% of the games (101 of 509). In the situation the Red Sox were put in -- down by 2, man on 2nd, 2 outs -- only 4.2% of teams rallied to win (34 of 810).

Over at FanGraphs, Drew's double increased Boston's chances of winning from 5.5% to 13.7%. The strikeout of Ortiz dropped the odds back down to 5.5%.

Adrian Beltre followed Flo to the plate and checked his swing on a 1-1 pitch. Scott said Beltre swung and refused Beltre's request to check with the first base umpire. It seemed obvious to me that Scott was ignoring Beltre because of Ortiz's complaints about the farcical called strike 3. If so, Scott was punishing one team for being angry at his own mistake, which seriously hurt their chances in the game. He seemingly decided to put his own emotions ahead of doing his job.

Terry Francona, who had come out to guide Tiz back to the dugout, was out again -- the second time in four pitches -- and this time, after he was ejected, he gave Scott an earful. Beltre lined Gregg's next pitch into center for a single and Drew scored to make it 3-2. But Darnell McDonald popped up to the second baseman down the right field line to end the game.

Did Ortiz see a replay of the pitch/call?
I don't have to. Thank God I wasn't hitting righthanded because that would have hit me in the ribs.
Wakefield (7-5-3-1-5, 102) allowed a run in the fifth on doubles by Lyle Overbay and Travis Snider. Snider hit a two-run homer in the seventh.

Boston could do very little with Marcum (7-2-0-1-6, 103). The Sox had 1st/3rd with one out in the second, but Beltre and Jeremy Hermida could not deliver. That was their only scoring threat until the ninth.
Example
Shaun Marcum / Tim Wakefield
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Drew, RF
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
Van Every, CF
Wakefield makes his 5th start of the year and his first since April 25. He has made three recent relief appearances: 6 runs and 7 hits (including 3 HR) in 6.1 innings. He last pitched on Sunday night, throwing 10 pitches in an inning against the Yankees.

Other than an April 27 start against the Red Sox at Skydome, Marcum (7-4-1-3-5, 103) has not faced Boston since August 2008.

The Rays play the Angels at 7 PM and the Yankees have a day-night doubleheader (1 & 7 PM) in Detroit.

Manager Mistaken, Mutters More MUMS

In noting that Josh Beckett's back troubles are not serious, Terry Francona made a joke about not knowing which side was bothering Beckett.
On the side and lower. Left or right. As Manny said, "Pick one."
Two years ago, I figured out (to my satisfaction, anyway), that the whole Manny/Which-Knee-Hurt was pure fiction.

A number of things converged to create the 2008 Manny Myth: a two-year-old wisecrack from Tim McCarver, an Onion-esque blog post, Alex Gonzalez's knee(s) trouble, and a media eager to report what a lazy, space cadet Manny Ramirez is.

So what's Tito doing? Either he has some inside information or he's unwittingly perpetuating some MUMS (from the Glossary: Made-Up Manny Shit).

May 11, 2010

G34: Red Sox 6, Blue Jays 1

Blue Jays - 000 001 000 - 1  4  1
Red Sox - 210 120 00x - 6 7 0
Matsuzaka: 7-3-1-0-9, 106!

Matsuzaka went seven innings, allowed just three hits and a run. He didn’t walk anyone while throwing 71 strikes in 106 pitches.

He worked quickly, had a great four-seam fastball, and went to a three-ball count on only five of his 24 batters. And only four of the 21 outs left the infield (three of them in the second inning).
Since arriving here, I think this game is the one where I felt the most comfortable using my fastball.
It was only the 3rd time in his major league career that Matsuzaka pitched at least 7 innings and did not walk a batter. The other two came in consecutive starts way back in 2007: May 14 (9-6-1-0-5 against the Tigers; his only CG no-walker!) and May 19 (8-9-3-0-6 against Atlanta).

And it was only the 7th time in 76 career starts (of any length) that he did not issue a walk. The others: May 30, 2007 (5.2 innings), April 1, 2008 (6.2), May 27, 2008 (4), and June 7, 2009 (5.2).

Jason Varitek belted yet another home run (#6), a second inning bomb that cleared everything in left. The Cactus also singled and scored in the fourth. J.D. Drew singled twice, walked, and stole a base; Dustin Pedroia doubled, singled, and walked; and both Kevin Youkilis and Marco Scutaro walked twice. Yook was also HBP. Toronto pitchers, after walking seven batters last night, walked eight tonight.

The Yankees were rained out in Detroit (they will play a day-nighter on Wednesday) and Tampa Bay beat the Angels 7-2.
Example
Dana Eveland / Daisuke Matsuzaka
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Drew, RF
Youkilis, 1B
Lowell, DH
Beltre, 3B
Varitek, C
Hall, LF
McDonald, CF
Third start of the season for Dice. Maybe he can avoid having one ghastly inning this time. So far this year: 10 innings, 12 hits, 6 walks, 7 strikeouts, 9.90 ERA.

Eveland had a rough go of it against the Sox back on April 26 (3-8-7-3-3). but then, he always does. In four career starts, he has a 18.24 ERA (30 hits and 11 walks in 12.2 innings = 3.324 WHIP!). Current Boston players are hitting him at a .446/.512/.568 clip.

Regressing to the mean: Darnell McDonald is 3 for his last 24, with 9 K. ... Jacoby Ellsbury did some baserunning drills this afternoon. ... The White Sox signed Alan Embree.

After the Red Sox lost to the Yankees last Saturday, Cool Standings had the team (then 7.5 GB) at a 4.4% chance to make the playoffs. In two days, Boston has gained two games in the standings and is now 5.5 GB. CS is not overly impressed, however -- or rather, Tampa Bay and New York don't look appreciably weaker -- and has Boston at only 6.9%. BP's PECOTA projections currently has the Sox at 18.8%.

Wakefield Starts Wednesday; Beckett Moved To Friday

Update: Beckett will not be starting Friday. No word on when his next start will be.
Example
Poor performance and back spasms have caused Terry Francona to push Josh Beckett's next start up two days from Wednesday to Friday. Tim Wakefield will start in the finale of the Blue Jays series.

Beckett tweaked his back taking batting practice in preparation for interleague games, but Francona implied that the rotation change was happening even before Beckett's discomfort. In seven starts, Beckett has the worst ERA (7.46) of any starter in MLB; he has allowed the most runs (35), the second most hits (one fewer than Shields and Pineiro), and has the 8th worst WHIP (1.659).

John Farrell:
There's multiple reasons for the adjustment in the rotation. An additional side with Josh to force -- particularly out of the stretch -- him getting back to a proper balance point and not getting spread out to where he loses his downhill plane on his fastball. When he gets into a proper position, his curveball is less readable by an opposing hitter.
Jonathan Papelbon is mixing his splitter and slider with his fastball and thinks his repertoire is "probably at its peak". Daniel Bard likes the return of Bot's splitter: "He's not just throwing it up there for a different look. ... [I]t's back to what it was when I was watching him on TV a couple years ago. It's that nasty, 90-mile-an-hour, foot of sink."

In his last six games, Papelbon has a 6-2-1-1-5 line, with the one run being unearned. However, the error in that game was Papelbon's errant pick-off throw; if the run scores due to the pitcher's own error, shouldn't that be counted against him as an earned run? ... For the season, Papelbon has allowed nine hits and nine walks in 16 innings. He has walked only one batter since April 24 (7 games, 6.2 innings, 26 batters faced).

Also: Mike Cameron was Pawtucket's leadoff hitter and DH last night. He went 1-for-3, with a double and a walk in his last two trips to the plate. He will play the outfield tonight. ... J.D. Drew was scratched from last night's lineup with vertigo. Tito: "He got real dizzy before the game. ... Looked like he just got off a boat."

May 10, 2010

G33: Red Sox 7, Blue Jays 6

Blue Jays - 040 020 000 - 6  8  2
Red Sox - 241 000 00x - 7 8 1
After Victor Martinez drove in two quick runs in the first -- Lewis had thrown only nine pitches -- Lackey allowed the first six batters to reach in the second. Then Boston sent ten men to the plate in the home half of the second, six of whom walked (including four of the first five and five of the first seven).

A two-run dong by Jose Bautista in the fifth brought Toronto to within one, but the Sox pitchers allowed only one baserunner after that. Lackey (6-8-6-3-6, 95) retired the next four, Hideki Okajima pitched a perfect seventh, Daniel Bard issued a one-out walk in the eighth, and Jonathan Papelbon kept the ball in the infield for a 1-2-3 ninth.

More good news: The Tigers beat the Yankees 5-4 and the Angels beat the Rays 5-4 in 11 innings.
Example
Brandon Morrow / John Lackey
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Drew, RF
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
McDonald, CF
Lackey has pitched seven innings in each of his last three starts, allowing 3, 3 and 1 runs. ... Boston is 2.5 GB the third-place Jays. Both teams are 12-8 over their last 20 games.

Buster Olney, in yesterday's ESPN Insider column: "I'd be stunned if Ortiz finishes the month on the Boston roster." I no longer subscribe to Insider, so I don't know if Olney offered any reason/anonymous source/etc. ... Flo is hitting .286/.333/.762 this month, with 3 taters.

Red Sox team totals, AL ranking among 14 teams:
Batting:
1st in H, 2nd in SLG, 3rd in RS & OBP, 4th in BB

Pitching:
14th in RA, 13th in HR, 12th in H, 10th in BB & WHIP
Mike Cameron begins a rehab assignment tonight as Pawtucket's DH. He will play center field tomorrow and meet with Sox staff on Wednesday.
My body feels good. It's been responding to back-to-back days of constant pounding. Other than like general soreness, I've got to let it go. ... I need to go see where I'm at ... I just have to be brutally honest with myself and brutally honest with the staff.
Adrian Beltre wore non-prescription glasses last night to protect his eyes from the cold (47 degrees) and wind (20 mph to RF).
My eyes are really sensitive, and every time it's windy, I can't see. ... It was the first time I've ever worn them. Ever. I've had them for many years ... but I never had the guts to use them ... I'll probably use them more often.
That's amazing. Never had the guts? I was initially embarrassed to wear my glasses to school back in 6th or 7th grade, but why would a 13-year MLB vet (who plays at the "hot corner") be hesitant to make sure his vision was not blurry during games? Is protecting your eyes against something as innocuous as wind unmanly?

Only two other AL games today: Yankees/Tigers and Rays/Angels.

"Exile On Main Street" Week

May 10-14 is "Exile on Main Street Week" on Jimmy Fallon's late night talk show.

He will have a musical guest play a song from Exile each night. Tonight is Green Day; then it's Keith Urban on Tuesday, Sheryl Crow on Wednesday, and Phish on Thursday. (I think there will be other musicians playing with the show's regular band.)

On Friday, Mick Jagger will introduce an excerpt from the new documentary "Stones in Exile" (the full 151-minute DVD will be released in June).

I will have a similar Exile-related post on Thursday.

Stick It, A-Rod

Peggy Lindsey, Dallas Braden's grandmother:
Stick it, A-Rod.
Braden (9-0-0-0-6, 109) vs Rays:

1: Bartlett (c) L5. Crawford (bcf) 3U. Zobrist (cs) F8.

2: Longoria (bcbbc) F8. Pena (bc) 3U. Upton (fbf) K looking.

3: Aybar (cbc) K looking. Navarro (bcf) F8. Kapler (fbf) L7.

4: Bartlett (ccbbb) 5-3. Crawford (cfff) K swinging. Zobrist (fbfbb) 6-3.

5: Longoria (fcff) K swinging. Pena (cb) F7. Upton (b) 5-3.

6: Aybar (fbc) K swinging. Navarro (cbb) PF5. Kapler (ccfbfbfffff) PF5.

7: Bartlett (bb) L7. Crawford 4-3. Zobrist (bc) F9.

8: Longoria (bfcb) F8. Pena PF5. Upton (ff) K swinging.

9: Aybar (cfbb) L3. Navarro (c) L7. Kapler (bcbb) 6-3.

May 9, 2010

G32: Red Sox 9, Yankees 3

Yankees - 000 200 010 - 3 7 1
Red Sox - 015 120 00x - 9 10 0
Lester was on (7-4-2-2-7, 103) and the bats socked it to Burnett in the third.

J.D. Drew singled to start the second, moved up on a wild pitch, and scored when Marcus Thames misplayed Jeremy Hermida's fly ball to deep left. RBIs in the third came from Drew's sac fly, David Ortiz's double, Adrian Beltre's double (2 RBI), and Hermida's single. Kevin Youkilis doubled home Dustin Pedroia in the fourth. In the fifth, after Beltre doubled again, Hermida belted a dong (#4) to right.

Manny Delcarmen allowed three singles and a run in the eighth and Tim Wakefield threw a perfect ninth on 10 pitches.

Oakland's Dallas Braden pitched a perfect game against Tampa Bay this afternoon -- the 19th in history -- so the Red Sox gained a game on the FKR.

A good day.
Example
A.J. Burnett / Jon Lester
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Drew, RF
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
McDonald, CF
Lester's last three starts: 0.44 ERA, 20.2 innings, 10 hits, 1 run, 23 strikeouts, 8 walks. ... Keep doing that.

A Must Win In Early May?

An overview of the nearly-identically-titled SoSH thread:
Paul M
[Tonight] is as close to must-win before the calendar even hits June as any game in a long time. For most of the last 15 years or so, .500 through the first 40 or so games was tolerable. Now, you have a team that's obviously performing well below expectations (under .500 and more importantly allowing nearly 6 runs per game!) PLUS you have two super-elite teams in the AL East.

Rudy Pemberton
It seemed like the Sox had a better staff than the MFY and Rays, but in hindsight, it's probably not true. ... Sox offense, which has been pretty good, is certainly inferior to the MFY, and it seems like there are a lot of hitters on the team that feast on the dregs of the league more than most and are rendered useless vs. good pitching. The defense may be better, but it's certainly not making highlight reels on a nightly basis like we may have been led to believe. At this point, you just hope they start playing better and see what happens.

SoxFanSince57
The Sox will come back, but I am not overly confident that they will hit on enough cylinders to make it into the post season. ... Right now, I am hoping that Lowell becomes DH, our starters and relievers return to form and the batting order outperforms their career norms. Like I said, I have some hope. It is way too early to throw in the towel.

paulftodd
FWIW, the Yankees were 15-16 last year and 5.5 games down. They won 103 games.

Ed Hillel
The Yankees also had a vastly superior team and were missing one of the best players of all time in his prime. ... I'm not quitting or anything, because baseball is awesome, and nothing is certain here, but I'm not going to get upset when they lose to superior teams. The Baltimore series...now that was upsetting.

The Gray Eagle
Tampa and NY have come into Fenway and beat the living shit out of the Red Sox every way you can beat a team. At this point, the Sox are barely even putting up any resistance. ... Sunday is not a must-win game ... It's a really-really-want-to-win-game to save some freaking pride and avoid humiliation. Show you aren't just wetting your pants every single game when [TB and NYY] come to your park, and we'll go from there.

bankshot1
Back in '02 or '03 Theo laid out the game plan for the Sox
-build a team for 95 wins
-rebuild the farms, selectively use FA
-hope you don't get side-tracked by injuries
-and you should get into the post-season more often than not.
And it's turned out to be a sound game plan, but this is shaping up to be a "not" year.

yecul
[T]he problem I have envisioning the big turnaround is that we're not seeing a single area that is dragging them down nor a few key players. There is bad play across the board. Bonehead decision making, lackluster offense against non-horrible opponents, defensive crappiness abound, and one of the worst performing staffs. Oh, and some injuries on top of all that.

Rudy Pemberton
At this point, the run differential seems to be a pretty good indicator of talent. Worst six teams in the AL: Baltimore (-46), Cleveland (-41), Angels (-39), Seattle (-29), White Sox (-22), and Red Sox (-18). ... 30 games in, and the Sox have allowed 84 more runs than TB, and 72 more than the Yankees. And the team strength is pitching?

Cuzittt
It would be the height of foolishness for me to come in here and declare that the Red Sox are going to go to the playoffs this season. Obviously, they have built themselves a nice little hole to climb out of. They are in a division with two really good teams. There is a good likelihood that the Red Sox will not make the playoffs this year. But, we do ourselves a disservice to not look at history. [Stuff about the 2009 Yankees, 2001 A's, 1951 Giants, 1988 Red Sox] This is not to say that this current Red Sox squad will do what the above teams did. But it is silly to count them out at this point. ... [T]here is a lot of time yet left.

Pumpsie
The offense is about where we expected it to be, especially with two key starters out. ... The problem is the pitching, especially the rotation, which was supposed to be our strength. It flat-out sucks. ... I have no idea how to predict our starting pitching at this point but the season all hinges on that, and little else, really. If we're shutting down the opposition, no one here will be complaining very much that we won 4-1 instead of 6-1 ... When the pitching is crap, game after game, and right from the get-go, it's easy for a team to look absolutely awful. That's where we are right now.
The past five weeks have been incredibly frustrating. There would be copious amounts of ranting and raving in this space if this was pre-04, but any true anger at this point would be forced. I'm simply not that person anymore. The losses piss me off, because these players are better than this, but they no longer gnaw away at my insides.

I believe the Red Sox can turn their sinking ship around and get back into the ALE race -- the FKR's magic number over the Sox is 125 with 131 games to go -- though no matter what they do, they are not assured of a playoff spot. But what is a fan is she doesn't have faith?

May 8, 2010

G31: Yankees 14, Red Sox 3

Yankees - 002 130 242 - 14 17  0
Red Sox - 003 000 000 - 3 8 1
Shoulda called it.

Game resumed at 6:25. Martinez fouled out to second against Alfredo Aceves to end the fifth. Manny Delcarmen is taking over for Buchholz (5-9-6-5-1, 93; 1 unearned run).

Rain delay at 5:11 with a 2-2 count on Victor Martinez, a runner on first and two outs in the bottom of the fifth.

In the space of two pitches, the sky opened up and suddenly sheets of rain were coming down. Because the Red Sox are still batting in the bottom of the fifth -- though Sabathia was one strike away from ending the inning -- the game is not official.
Example
CC Sabathia / Clay Buchholz

If the weather allows:
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Lowell, DH
Drew, RF
Beltre, 3B
Hall, LF
McDonald, CF

Why They Know What Isn't So

Why do people continue believing something is true long after its accuracy has been disproved (or when it wasn't true in the first place)?

Kevin Kernan, Post:
If the Red Sox can't get Beckett straightened out, they have bigger problems than anyone could have imagined. Their offense is already a question mark.
The 2010 Red Sox*:
RS          - 3rd in AL, 7th in MLB
RS/G - 4th in AL, 8th in MLB
AVG - 3rd in AL, 5th in MLB
OBP - 4th in AL, 5th in MLB
SLG - 1st in AL, 2nd in MLB
OPS - 2nd in AL, 3rd in MLB
OPS+ - Tied for 2nd in AL and MLB
Total Bases - 2nd in AL and MLB (3 fewer than TOR)
*: Of course, the usual caveats apply, e.g., the Sox have had a couple of very high-scoring games (17, 13, 11), which inflates the average, especially after only 30 games.

Boston's team OPS is .811, not too far behind New York's .822. Only one other team is over .800. It is undeniable that the Red Sox are getting on base and slugging the ball better than almost any team in baseball. In fact, with men on base, they are hitting better than the Yankees, although they are weaker with RATS.
              NYY               BOS
Men On .265/.357/.416 .274/.357/.467
RATS .284/.384/.473 .280/.373/.457
In fact, Boston is doing all that hitting with two of its starting outfielders on the DL, a DH who is not H-ing much at all, and lower-than-expected production from its right fielder and catcher. The bats are not the problem, Kevin.

P.S. I do not have access to any fancy or secret information. You can find almost all of it right here.
Example
Jamie Moyer became the the oldest pitcher in history to throw a complete game shutout: 9-2-0-0-5, 105 last night against Atlanta.

May 7, 2010

G30: Yankees 10, Red Sox 3

Yankees - 000 306 010 - 10 11  0
Red Sox - 000 101 010 - 3 9 0

Example
Phil Hughes / Josh Beckett
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Drew, RF
Youkilis, 1B
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
Varitek, C
McDonald, CF
After a couple of bad starts, Beckett rebounded against the Orioles (7-6-2-0-6, 106) last Sunday. Hughes has been outstanding. In 25 innings over four starts, he has allowed only 10 hits (including nine singles) and four runs, though he has walked 12. Right-handed batters are 3-for-39 against him this year (.077, with a .199 OPS).

Here is your series preview, courtesy of SoSH's mabrowndog. You won't find anything anywhere even 10% as good. Snips:
NYY - 19-8 (.704)
2nd in AL East
1.0 game behind TB
2nd best record in AL

BOS - 15-14 (.517)
4th in AL East
6.5 games behind TB
6th (T) best record in AL ...
It's fair to say the Yankees have yet to be truly tested. The average current W-L record of the teams they've played so far is 13.1-16.0, and only 3 of their 27 games have been against teams with a record better than 15-14. Meanwhile the Sox' average oppositional W-L is 14.6-14.3 with 13 of 29 games against teams better than 15-14. ...

Pettitte (14.9), Burnett (14.0), Sabathia (12.2) and Hughes (11.3) rank 4th, 5th, 8th and 12th in VORP among AL starting pitchers. They're 15-1 with a 2.14 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a .216/.288/.300/.588 opponents' batting line. ...

Where the Yankees appear to have flubbed their management of Joba Chamberlain's development, they've hit it out of the park with Hughes. ... [a ton of solid info on Hughes]

What the hell is up with Cap'n Intangibles' low walk total? Just 5 in 123 PA, or 4.1%?? He's on pace for the lowest walk rate and OBP of his career ... Sure enough, he's swinging at far more junk outside the strike zone ... [hitting] a shitload more grounders ...

Curtis Granderson's on the 15-day DL with a groin strain and is likely out until late May. ... An MRI revealed inflammation of [Pettitte's elbow] joint but no ligament damage. ... [Posada missed two games] with a "mild calf strain" ... The 40-year-old Rivera hasn't pitched since April 30 and wasn't available at all this week due to "left side stiffness", whatever the hell that's supposed to mean. ...
Tampa Bay (12-1 on the road this year) is in Oakland tonight.

And: Andre Ethier of the Dodgers has 11 walk-off hits since 2008. No other player has more than five. ... Joe Posnanski remembers Robin Roberts and explains why baseball has never been better than it is right now.

May 6, 2010

G29: Red Sox 11, Angels 6

Angels  - 400 002 000 -  6  9  2
Red Sox - 002 054 00x - 11 11 0
Boston rallied from a 4-0 hole -- sending 19 batters to the plate in the fifth and sixth innings -- to sweep Los Angeles. It was the first four-game sweep of the Angels at Fenway in 43 years.

Boston swept the California Angels on August 18-20, 1967 (3-2, 12-11, 12-2, 9-8), the start of a seven-game winning streak that boosted the Red Sox into a first place tie in the AL on August 22, Carl Yastrzemski's 28th birthday.

A quick look at Baseball Reference turned up 15 four-game series between 1968 and 2009 (two of those were five-gamers, actually), though only two of the 15 have been played since 1998. Only twice (1984 and 1991) did Boston win the first three games before losing the finale.

After Dice's craptastic 39-pitch first inning, including walks to the first two batters of the game, he settled down nicely. He gave up a single in the second, a wind-blown double in the fifth and a double off the Wall in the sixth. He went to a three-ball count only once in his final 18 batters.

Victor Martinez hit a two-run homer in the third and doubled in the first two runs in the fifth. Later in the inning, facing reliever Brian Stokes, pinch-hitter Jeremy Hermida smacked a first-pitch 2-run single and Darnell McDonald followed with a first-pitch RBI double. In the sixth, the Red Sox had only two hits, but were helped out by two walks, an HBP, and an infield error.

Dustin Pedroia singled, doubled, and walked, stole a base, and scored three runs; he also made a couple of nice plays in the field in the early innings.

The Yankees are in Boston this weekend; they did not play on Thursday. Tampa Bay is leading the Mariners 6-0 in the 6th inning.
Example
Scott Kazmir / Daisuke Matsuzaka
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Lowell, DH
Drew, RF
Beltre, 3B
Hall, LF
McDonald, CF
The Red Sox go for a four-game sweep of the Angels. A win would put them over .500 for the first time since they were 1-0, after beating the Yankees on Opening Night.

Boston has gone 10-5 since April 20 and actually lost ground (one half-game) to Tampa Bay (20-7 overall, and 17-4 since April 11). In that 21-game stretch, the Rays have outscored their opponents by an average of almost four runs per game: 6.5 to 2.6. I hope they cool off by May 24.

Last night was Terry Francona's 1,000th game as Red Sox manager. At the end of this season*, he will be at 1,134, trailing only Joe Cronin (2,007, 1935-47). Francona would have to stick around until June 2016 to top the list.
Example
92 Years Ago Today: Red Sox manager Ed Barrow's lineup has pitcher Babe Ruth hitting 6th and playing first base. Boston loses to the Yankees 10-3 at the Polo Grounds, but Ruth goes 2-for-4 with a home run. The next day, Ruth bats 4th and homers off Walter Johnson. Barrow decides to keep Ruth in the everyday lineup.

Owners Ignore Warnings, Plan More Sunless Ball

Jack Smith, New York Daily News, August 9, 1942:
Heedless of the dangers of an overdose of twilight and night baseball, major league club owners are rapidly breaking away from the time-honored tradition that baseball is a day-time sport. Eager to boost war-time gate receipts, and without looking ahead to the future, the magnates are forgetting the conditions under which the game grew to great popularity. They have turned deaf ears to warnings of experienced observers and blind eyes to the example set by the minor leagues.

There is no doubt that baseball, in its experimentation with early evening and night games, is treading on a "hot" spot that may eventually result in its disintegration. For years, the major league owners fought against the creeping progress of night ball, but their defense now has utterly collapsed. ...

The majors should have learned from the minors all about the evils of the night game. Undoubtedly, during the depression, the arc lights kept many of the lower leagues alive. The novelty of it was a strong gate attraction. However the minors did just what the majors are now doing, added to their night schedules until, in many cities, all but Sunday games were played under lights. It worked for a while, but the "circus glitter" faded -- and so did the attendance. ...

Several of the cities have worked out their own plans. Cleveland, for instance, starts all week-day games at 4 P.M. in the hope of luring early-shift defense workers through the turnstiles. So far, it has not proved successful. ... Detroit's venture has been a little more fruitful. The Tigers starts at the usual time all except one day a week, Wednesday, when the bell rings at 5 P.M. This seems to be the best method of handling the problem.

Of course it all is still in the experimental stage. But the trend is a definite one as well as dangerous one. Apparently the baseball people aren't content to experiment in small quantities but must plunge the whole hog. By the time they read the danger sign it may be too late to turn back.
Fenway Park did not have lights until 1947. Of the 16 major league teams, the Red Sox were the third-to-last team to succumb to "the evils of the night game".

May 5, 2010

G28: Red Sox 3, Angels 1

Angels  - 000 010 000 - 1  2  0
Red Sox - 010 100 01x - 3 11 0
Lackey (7-2-1-2-4, 102) shut down his former team with very little fuss, David Ortiz hit an opposite field solo home run in the fourth, and Adrian Beltre, after singled in Boston's first run, slammed a dong over the camera platform in center field for some eighth inning insurance. Which wasn't needed, because Bard and Bot were totally awesome.

The Angels had only two hits: Kendry Morales's single to left to start the second and Brandon Wood's solo homer in the fifth. Wood came up with the bases loaded in the second, Lackey's only worrisome frame: Morales had singled, Maicer Izturis walked with one out and then, with two down, a thread on Mike Napoli's uniform was grazed by a pitch to load the bases. Wood (1-for-12 in his career with the sacks juiced) struck out.

Flo had a single and a walk to go with his tater; Dustin Pedroia singled twice and walked, Beltre was 3-for-4; and Kevin Youkilis singled in the seventh after striking out in his first three trips. Third base coach Tim "Wendell" Bogar sent Marco Scutaro to the plate on Yook's single, and even with Shemp's not unexpected crappy off-line throw, Scutaro was out. With Boston ahead 2-1 at the time and the possibility of having Drew up with the bases loaded with only one out, it was a moronic decision.

But Terry Francona got a W in his 1,000th game as Red Sox manager (579-421).
Example
Joel Pineiro / John Lackey
Scuatro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Drew, RF
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
Hall, CF
The Rays, Yankees and Blue Jays all won yesterday, so Boston (13-14) remains 6.5 GB in 4th place. Toronto and New York both play this afternoon, while Tampa Bay plays tonight.

The Red Sox will honour Nomar Garciaparra before the game (#5 on 5/5).

X-rays of Clay Buchholz's left ankle were negative. "If it had been an inch lower, it would have been bad - it would have been right on my ankle bone."

Jacoby Ellsbury took batting practice yesterday for the first time since going on the disabled list.

Ernie Harwell: January 25, 1918-May 4, 2010 -- MLB.com - Detroit Free Press - Detroit News.

May 4, 2010

G27: Red Sox 5, Angels 1

Angels  - 000 100 000 - 1  5  1
Red Sox - 100 000 04x - 5 11 0
Jeremy Hermida made sure that Kevin Jepsen did not escape the eighth inning unscathed. Though he needed some help from Jepsen's left fielder, Juan Rivera.

Jepsen took over for Santana (7-7-1-1-7, 115) in a 1-1 tie and got into trouble immediately. He walked Victor Martinez on four pitches, then walked Kevin Youkilis on eight. J.D. Drew poked an opposite field single to load the bases. David Ortiz, who had ended possible scoring opportunities in the first and third innings, grounded a 2-0 pitch into a 4-2-3 double play, his second twin killing of the evening.

But the Red Sox did not fold. Adrian Beltre walked on four pitches to re-load the bases and Hermida lifted a 2-2 pitch to deep left. Rivera drifted back and twisted around, clearly having no idea how to play the fly. It ended up not even hitting the Wall, but landing on the warning track. By the time Rivera got the ball back to the infield, all three base runners had scored and Hermida had a double that improved Boston's win probability by 32.7% (63.8 to 96.5)!

Jepsen (.2-2-4-3-0, 32) was replaced by Scot Shields, who gave up an RBI double to pinch-hitter Mike Lowell. Marco Scutaro (who doubled back in both the first and second innings) singled and Dustin Pedroia walked to once again load the bases, but Jonathan Van Every, who had pinch-run for Martinez at the start of the inning, struck out.

Jonathan Papelbon then set down the Angels' 3-4-5 hitters in order (K swinging, 5-3, K looking) and Boston took the second game of this four-game series.

Pedroia had preserved the tie in the top of the eighth when, with one out and the bases loaded, Bobby Abreu grounded to second. The infield was in, so FY had the ball as Erick Aybar was running past him from first to second. Pedroia tagged Aybar and as he stumbled and fell towards first base, shuffled the ball to Youkilis to end the inning.

Lester (8-5-1-2-5, 120) turned in his third straight excellent start.

The standings are still gruesome -- it will take more than two days to make them even remotely palatable -- but it feels like we are watching an entirely different team than the one we suffered with in Baltimore over the weekend.
Example
Ervin Santana / Jon Lester
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Drew, RF
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Hermida, LF
McDonald, CF
Lester has not allowed a run in his last two starts: 12.2 innings, 5 hits, 6 walks, 18 strikeouts.

Santana has not pitched very well in Boston -- 4 starts, 21.1 innings, 20 hits, 17 runs -- but three of those starts were in 2005 and 2007.

All nine starters in last night's lineup had (at least) one hit and one run scored. Pinch-runner Jonathan Van Every also scored a run, but did not get a hit in his one at-bat.

It was the second time this season a team had all of its starters get a hit and a run. San Diego did it in a 17-2 win over Atlanta on April 12, with starting pitcher Kevin Correia hitting a two-run single and scoring on a double.

B-Ref says it happened nine times in 2009, 10 times in 2008, 12 times in 2007, 19 times in 2006, and 15 times in 2005.

No Walks

MLB players with at least 20 PA and 0 walks (and where they usually bat in the lineup):
                TEAM  PA   AVG   OBP   SLG  OPS+ Lineup
Aaron Rowand SFG 52 .300 .327 .440 97 1st
John McDonald TOR 37 .229 .229 .400 70 9th
Wil Nieves WAS 35 .200 .200 .229 14 7-9
Jacoby Ellsbury BOS 30 .333 .333 .467 110 1st
Matt Tuiasosopo SEA 22 .182 .182 .182 1 9th
Chris Johnson HOU 22 .227 .227 .318 43 6&9
Roy Halladay PHI 22 .182 .182 .182 -4 9th
Randy Ruiz TOR 21 .095 .095 .238 -12 7th
Xavier Paul LAD 20 .250 .250 .450 84 1&7
Jason Michaels HOU 20 .200 .200 .550 90 PH-9
Last year, McDonald walked once in 156 PA.

Scutaro Makes Contact

Something amazing and rare happened last night, and I'm not talking about the Red Sox pounding out 17 runs and 20 hits.

Marco Scutaro swung at a pitch and missed it. How rare is that?

He's done it only six times this year!*

*: By contrast, Kevin Youkilis swung and missed at five pitches in one game (April 11). I went to look at the 11th because it was David Ortiz's 4K game, but Flo missed only four pitches that day.

Going through my scorecards, I came up with 479 pitches to Scutaro. (Fangraphs has 480. Arrgg! I don't know where that missing pitch is, so I'm going to ignore it in the info below and go with my total.)

Scutaro's first swing and a miss came in the 5th inning on April 20 (G14), on his 230th pitch of the year. (Or maybe 231st.) It was during his 56th plate appearance.

That number also includes pitches taken for balls, not only swings. FG has broken down Scutaro's pitches seen as 195 balls and 285 strikes.

For the record, of the 479 pitches I have for Scutaro, he has swung and missed at #s 230, 251, 362, 378, 415, and 476.

Dave Roberts Being Treated For Hodgkin's Lymphoma

Dave Roberts was diagnosed with the Hodgkin's lymphoma in March and has since had two rounds of chemotherapy. "Fortunately, the prognosis is very positive. We got it at an early stage."

Terry Francona:
I expect Davey can outrun anything. He's got a lot of people here pulling for him. I think he probably feels that everywhere. Everywhere he's been, I would think he's got people pulling for him.
Nice ring!
Example
The player with the largest WPA* last night?

*: Win Probability Added is the difference in Win Expectancy -- the percent chance a particular team will win based on the score, inning, outs, runners on base, and the run environment -- between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.

Bill Hall. His two-run homer in the second inning increased the Red Sox chances of winning 15.8%.

Over the last nine games, Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek have thrown out 6 of 7 attempted base stealers (after catching only 2 of 29 in the first 17 games of the season).

The Yankees will not have Javy Vazquez (9.78 ERA; 32 hits and 15 walks in 23 innings) pitch BP at Fenway this weekend. The expected match-ups: Beckett/Hughes, Buchholz/Sabathia, Lester/Burnett.

May 3, 2010

G26: Red Sox 17, Angels 8

Angels  - 000 301 004 -  8 12  1
Red Sox - 032 207 30x - 17 20  1

Example
Joe Saunders / Clay Buchholz

With:
Scutaro, SS Pedroia, 2B Martinez, C Youkilis, 1B Drew, RF Lowell, DH Beltre, 3B Hall, LF McDonald, CF
Peter Abraham, Globe:
Starting tonight, the Red Sox will play 20 of their next 23 games (in 24 days) against teams that figure to be playoff contenders this season. ...
May  3- 6    Angels
May  7- 9    Yankees
May 10-12    Blue Jays
May 14-16 at Tigers
May 17-18 at Yankees
May 19-20    Twins
May 21-23 at Philadelphia
May 24-26 at Tampa Bay
Come May 27, the season will be 30 percent over and the Sox will know whether they are contenders or frauds.
There is probably some middle ground between those two choices, but there's little arguing with the fact that this is a very important month.
Example
Is it too early to give up on the 2010 Red Sox? NO!, say 54.1% voters in this Globe poll.

Dear 54.1%:
Then would you guys truly give up? Don't go to any more games at Fenway. Don't call any radio station. Don't post anything at any website. Have nothing to do with the team. The season is over, right? If you're giving up, GIVE UP!

Despair? You're Soaking In It

They walked off the field, heads down, eyes hidden by the brims of their caps. The dugout swallowed them as they headed to pack their suitcases for a return to Boston. It was ... a new low in a season full of them.
It was the first time Boston had been swept in a three-game series in Baltimore in 35 years (September 2-4, 1974).

The Red Sox are 11-14.

They are in fourth place.

They are 7 GB.

And this week's schedule has four games against the Angels and three against the Yankees.Dustin Pedroia:
Everyone thought Baltimore was three easy wins, and we got our asses kicked three times.
Theo Epstein:
... bad baseball. Unintelligent, undisciplined, uninspired baseball. It's got to change. It either changes itself or we have to do something to change it.
Nick Underhill, RSM:
[T]hey are either going to wake up and start playing well or sink closer to oblivion.
Example
At Over The Monster, in a "Comprehensive Guide to April", 0157H7 asks: "Why is such a good team, at least on paper, playing so badly?"

First, he notes that the Sox are actually overperforming (!) their expected wins by one game and claims that the offense "has been fine. They are 5th in the league in runs scored."

Well, ... Boston is actually 6th in RS, and if they had scored only four fewer runs over the 25 games, they would be down to 8th. 0157H7 points out the Sox's good record when they score 5+ runs (8-3). However, for a team averaging 4.56 runs per game (an average boosted by three games of 9, 9 and 13 runs, by the way; it's 3.77 in the other 22 games), that tidbit may not offer the clearest picture of the offense.

Plus, you can turn it around and say that when the Red Sox have scored six runs or fewer, they are 4-11. By contrast, the Rays are 7-6 and the Yankees are 8-7. Only when the Sox get seven or more men across the plate is a win pretty much assured, as they are 7-1 when that happens. Tampa Bay is 11-0 and New York is 8-1.

There have been is very little late-inning heroics so far:

Red Sox record when they are tied ...
After 6 innings 2-3
After 7 innings 1-6
After 8 innings 2-5
Extra innings 1-5
The Soxaholix ask "Is It 'Still Early' Yet?":
Example
And is this the first indication of clubhouse trouble?
A clear divide is opening between the veterans of the team's World Series and playoff runs and the new players who were acquired to bolster the club this winter. Marco Scutaro seems like the only truly assimilated player of the bunch.
Pedroia sounds like Jeter circa 2005/06 when he says, "There's a lot of guys that have been here that are not used to this."

Jonathan Papelbon:
This game is going to test you, it's going to test every last bit of your will and fortitude. ... . You can't sit here worrying about the last game. You have to move on to next game and keep grinding away.
A reminder:

May 2, 2010

Previously Unheard Version Of Stones' "All Down The Line" Available For Free

Update, 2:43 AM: Woo-hoo! Got it!

Could someone in the UK be a dear and grab this free mp3 of a previously unknown outtake of "All Down The Line" -- which kicks off Side 4 of the Rolling Stones' Exile on Main Street -- and email it to me?

The track (4:09) is available for free from May 3-9, but not outside the UK, apparently. I'd be happy to upload it and post it here for everyone afterwards. ... I know I'll get it from somewhere eventually, but I want to hear it now! :>)

Thanks!

You can hear two different 30-second snips here. I don't think we yet know when this outtake was recorded, though I assume it was after the well-known acoustic outtake from 1969. ... There is an odd (for the Stones) bit of guitar at the :16 second mark.

Have I posted the mono mix for the 1972 ADTL single? This mix has some studio whooping at the start, and the piano from the great Nicky Hopkins and the gospelish background singers are higher in the mix. Some harmonica from Jagger (buried or missing from Exile) kicks in at about 3:00 and we get a few extra seconds of the song thanks to a longer fadeout. The more prominent piano gives it a lighter and slightly bouncy feel as opposed to the unrelenting locomotive of the Exile mix.

G25: Orioles 3, Red Sox 2 (10)

Red Sox - 000 010 100 0 - 2  7  1
Orioles - 000 200 000 1 - 3 10 0
Swept by Baltimore.

7 GB.
Example
Josh Beckett / Kevin Millwood
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Drew, RF
Lowell, 1B
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
Varitek, C
McDonald, LF
Van Every, CF
The Red Sox are 2-3 against the Orioles this season; they have already lost more games to Baltimore than they did in all of 2009 (16-2).

Tom Singer, MLB.com:
This can be a crazy game: The Orioles have lost four of Millwood's five starts. In contrast, the Red Sox have won four of the starts made by Sunday starter Josh Beckett, even though his ERA [7.22] is more than double that of Millwood's [3.38].

May 1, 2010

G24: Orioles 12, Red Sox 9

Red Sox - 011 200 410 -  9 12  1
Orioles - 100 064 10x - 12 12 0
Baltimore outhomered Boston 5-4 -- two of them coming during a fifth-inning battering of Matsuzaka -- and took the second game of the series.

Dice started with a hiccup (nerves, maybe?) when he walked Adam Jones (only Jones's 3rd BB in 107 PA this year), threw away a pickoff attempt, and allowed an RBI single to Nick Markakis. He recovered to end the inning with a GIDP and a K, and then retired nine of the next ten hitters (the one man to reach base was thrown out stealing on a perfect throw from Victor Martinez).

Through 4.1 innings, Matsuzaka had allowed only one hit and the Sox had a 4-1 lead. He was at only 70 pitches -- but then the wheels came off. Home run, single, walk, fielder's choice, single, single, home run, double. And it was 7-4 Birds and Tim Wakefield was coming in for his first relief appearance in almost six years. Wake allowed three home runs as the Orioles managed to get another run or two every time the Red Sox started to creep back.

Sox Dongs: David Ortiz hit two solo bombs, and Jonathan Van Every and Kevin Youkilis each hit one homer.

Last night, Dave O'Brien expressed surprise when J.D. Drew took five straight pitches, acting as though it was both strange and rare. Well, it happened seven times tonight, including four times in the first two innings. Drew was one of the seven.
Example
Daisuke Matsuzaka / Brad Bergesen

Dice makes his 2010 debut. In three rehab starts, he allowed only three earned runs in 16.2 innings, with one walk and 13 strikeouts. His pitch count will be limited to approximately 90. (... so, 3 IP?)
Scutaro, SS
Pedroia, 2B
Martinez, C
Youkilis, 1B
Drew, RF
Ortiz, DH
Beltre, 3B
McDonald, LF
Van Every, CF
The Red Sox have acquired infielder Niuman Romero from Cleveland for cash. Romero, 25, made his MLB debut last September and played in 10 games (-5 OPS+!).

Dave O'Brien Has A Thing For J.D. Drew

But it's not a good thing.

Many people are obsessed with J.D. Drew, for a variety of reasons, most of which have very little to do with playing baseball. Drew doesn't talk much, so you won't hear him bark at umpires or offer some post-game tidbit. He is not prone to Jobaesque fist pumps and you won't see him throw his helmet or curse the heavens after making a critical out. He gets paid a lot of money, but he doesn't drive in a lot of runs, and his batting average isn't all that high. Plus he's so fragile, the next strong breeze might knock him onto the disabled list*.

*: What? He's played in 22 of 23 games this year? And last year, he played in more games than Kevin Youkilis? Shush, you!

There is another bunch of people who like Drew because he is a damn good fielder and a smart baserunner. He stays calm and focused at all times, and gets on base better than just about anyone else on the team. A lot of those same people don't care what his direct deposit statements look like. Those people are boring, though, and hard to make fun of. So screw them.

Thankfully, of the two Drew camps, Red Sox radio man Dave O'Brien is in the former. It's impossible to say if O'Brien is actually as ignorant about baseball as he sometimes makes himself sound or if his dislike for all things Drew (he has also been riding the MUMS Train since at least 2003) is rotting his brain. On Friday night, his obsession was front and center.

First, here is O'Brien's call in the second inning, when Drew stepped in against David Hernandez with one out and no one on, and Boston down 2-0:
Here's J.D. Drew taking a strike to the outside corner. J.D. hitting .181 with two homers, but he could get well very quickly here in Baltimore. He loves hitting at Camden Yards. He swings, there's a high fly ball, left field, this is deep, backing up Scott, backing up, leaps at the wall -- he cannot get it! And that ball is outta here! A home run for J.D. Drew! To the opposite field, and the Red Sox are on the scoreboard, Baltimore on top 2-1. But J.D. touches them all for the third time, here in 2010. Put a great swing on that ball -- and just loves to swing the bat here.
In the fourth inning, Drew took the first four pitches for a 2-2 count:
Joe Castiglione: "So J.D. has yet to swing the bat in this plate appearance."

[The next pitch is low for ball 3.]

DOB: "I don't know if it's good or bad, but how many big leaguers see five pitches and never take the bat off their shoulder*? And he might see six and not take it off."

JC: "He's got the discipline to do it -- he takes ball four. [laughs] So he looked at all six. Works a walk, third walk by Hernandez."
*: This probably happens once a game. Last night, Martinez took 10 straight and Ortiz looked at six in a row. There was Drew, of course. Plus see below for a big surprise!

In the sixth, Drew was the first man to face reliever Will Ohman. Baltimore was up 3-2, but Boston had a man on first with one out. P.S.: At that point, Drew was the only Red Sox batter to have reached base in both of his PAs.
DOB, after Drew has taken two called strikes: "So --"

JC: "After the home run, he has not swung the bat."

DOB: "Has not swung the bat, that's exactly right. Took six pitches, took ball four, full count, took the walk his last time up, and now the first two pitches here in for strikes, he has not offered at them."

JC: "That's low [ball 1] -- so another pitch he hasn't swung at. ... Strike [3] called over the outside corner, and Drew knew it. It's amazing. So, four pitches in that at-bat, six pitches in the last, didn't swing the bat for 10 straight pitches."

DOB: "Well, as we said midway through the previous at-bat, when he took ball four, I don't know if it's good or bad, I don't know if that's a positive or a negative, that you don't swing the bat for 10 straight pitches."

JC: "After you'd just homered. Well, it shows he's not over-anxious."

DOB: (chuckles)
Drew batted in the eighth with one out and no one on. The game was tied 3-3.
DOB: "And now comes J.D. Drew, who since homering in the second inning, to get the Red Sox on the board, has walked and struck out looking, and he has taken 10 consecutive pitches. First one to him is -- a strike on the inside corner. What will make J.D. swing the bat?"

JC: "He had an RBI hit off this pitcher [Jim Johnson] Sunday."

DOB: "The 0-1 pitch, check swing, that's a strike on the inside corner. Drew did not like the call at all, he's a little steamed about it, as he takes a little walk outside the batters box. That's 12 straight pitches he's looked at. That is patience to the extreme. Here comes the 0-2. That's outside, for a ball. 1-2, one out, bases empty, we're locked up 3-3 in the eighth inning. Johnson delivers, check swing, that's low for a ball. That's 14 straight pitches he's looked at. I don't know, I may be alone, but I find that remarkable."

JC: "It is. It's amazing."

DOB: "2-2, swing and a high fly ball to center field, way, way back, Jones, to the track, to the wall, it's gone!! He hit it outta here!!! The Red Sox lead it 4-3! He took 14 consecutive pitches -- over his last three plate appearances -- and he smokes one to center field when he finally takes the bat off his shoulder. That's incredible. The Red Sox lead it 4-3."

JC: "Two swings, two home runs. Amazing! He knows what he's doing."

DOB: "I think -- in the end, that's exactly right. He knows what he's doing. His second home run tonight, and here's David Ortiz. He takes a pitch outside for a ball. Kinda glad we kept count."

JC: "It was a high fastball. Oh, he loves this park."
Drew was up again in the ninth. The game was tied 4-4, with one out and men on 1st/2nd.
DOB: "And J.D. Drew will get another rip."

JC: "He won't be over anxious."

DOB: "He's proven that tonight. J.D. with two homers, a walk, and a strikeout. [talks about other game stuff] First pitch, he's taking, and that's in for a called strike. The Red Sox have taken 10 walks in the game. And Drew again in a ball park he loves to swing the bat in, has the game on his bat, maybe. The pitch is outside for a ball. 1-1. ... It's in for a strike, he took something off that pitch, at 83. ... Drew waves the bat low, now brings it up, they lead away from first and second, the pitch -- way outside, 2-2. ... Here's the 2-2, waived at and missed, and J.D. Drew strikes out. 87 mph, in, but J.D. couldn't locate it. ... So two away."
O'Brien never came out and said: "What's wrong with this guy? Why won't he ever swing? This is no good. He's got to be hacking." That's not his style, nor is it the style of most professional announcers.

Taking 14 consecutive pitches in a single game is certainly out of the ordinary*, but O'Brien does not present it to us as a testament to Drew's great plate discipline. It's freakish behaviour. It may not be what a good hitter should do. He's not working the count, he's not forcing the pitcher to throw something good he can attack or risk putting him on base. No, Drew is doing nothing. He's simply standing there. O'Brien emphasizes this attitude by saying, when Drew does swing, that he "finally takes the bat off his shoulder".

*: Hey, how about this? In the same game that O'Brien makes such a big deal about Drew watching 14 straight pitches go by, Darnell McDonald took 17 consecutive pitches! After popping out to short in the third, Microwave took a strike and four balls in the fifth, four straight balls in the seventh, four straight balls in the eighth, and two balls, a strike, and a third ball in the ninth. I had NESN on, so I don't know if O'Brien was even aware of this. I doubt he knew.

But now we need data. According to always amazing Fangraphs, Drew has swung at 36.5% of the pitches he has seen this year. That is the second lowest percentage on the Red Sox; only Marco Scutaro has swung at fewer pitches (33.4%). But Drew's % is not wildly low. Mike Cameron, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, and Victor Martinez are all below 41%.

Drew has swung at 20.8% of pitches outside of the strike zone, which is in the lower half of Red Sox batters, though it is a very high rate for him. Adrian Beltre (36.6%) and Jason Varitek (31.2%) have swung at the most and Scutaro is at the bottom of the list, with a mere 14.8%.

But O'Brien's issue with Drew is that he (Drew) is examining his cuticles or thinking about watching paint dry while being rung up on strikes, so how often does he swing at pitches inside the strike zone?

First of all, most of the pitches Drew sees are not strikes; only 44.4% are within the strike zone. And he offers at 56.2% of those -- which is unremarkable. It's about the same as Cameron (56.9%) and Martinez (57.1%)*.

*: Scutaro swings at the fewest pitches inside the zone, as well (51.0%). Which means our new shortstop swings at about one of every six pitches outside the strike zone while ignoring half of the pitches in the zone. Is O'Brien obsessing on Marco's clear aversion to any sort of activity in the box, his blatant why-do-I-have-this-stick-in-my-hand-and-what-is-it-used-for attitude? (I'm guessing: No, he is not.)

However, Drew has the second-worst contact percentage of pitches in the zone (84.9%) and overall pitches, trailing Ortiz in both categories. So the problem is not that Drew takes too many good pitches. His percentages in those situations are nothing abnormal. It's that when he swings, he doesn't hit the ball often enough.

But that's not what O'Brien is making a fuss about, is it? We also hear the same thing with NESN's Don Orsillo. When Drew struck out looking in the sixth, Orsillo noted that (paraphrasing) "We are seeing a lot more of that this year than before."*

*: I'll bet that's not true, or if it is, it's so small of a difference that you could not truly take note of it solely by comparing your memories from 2009, or 2008. Does any website keep track of types of Ks? (For the curious, Drew has struck out 16 times swinging and 10 times looking.)

But maybe O'Brien has a point. Perhaps taking all those pitches is a negative. Maybe J.D. Drew is hurting the team and he should change the way he has played the game for decades and begin hacking at pitches he would otherwise take. He might be a greater asset to the Red Sox that way.*

*: Oop, no he wouldn't. Looking at Drew's career stats, we find that while he is swinging at fewer total pitches this year (so far, anyway) than at any other year in his career, he is trying to at get pitches outside of the strike zone more often than ever before (except for 2003).

I want to know: Does Dave O'Brien think it would be better for the Boston Red Sox if J.D. Drew completely altered his mentality at the plate -- possibly compromising what has been one of the best OBPs on the team since 2007? Is it a positive or a negative to not swing at pitches outside of the strike zone? Based on last night's comments, O'Brien clearly doesn't know the answer to his own question.

I can think of two other Red Sox hitters, both left-handed hitters like Drew, who were infamous for refusing to swing at anything they perceived as even a millimeter outside the strike zone. They were criticized for walking, for selfishly padding their stats*, rather than swing at something and possibly drive in a teammate. One guy was Wade Boggs, whose OBP over the five-year period of 1985-89 was .454, an average which would have topped the AL in eight of the last nine seasons.

*: Although back in those days, who the hell cared about how often you got on base? Batting average ruled! Walks had no value. You wouldn't even be on record as having gone to the plate if you walked, that's how worthless it was. It never happened. (This is still true, of course.) Fly out, walk twice, steal a base, maybe score your team's only run in dramatic win; who cares? You were 0-for-1.)

The other guy is obvious. His batting eye and plate discipline were so otherworldly, we have a famous (and likely apocryphal) story about him batting against a rookie pitcher, who was annoyed at the plate umpire for not getting strikes called on what seemed to be very good pitches. Finally, the umpire told the noob to shut the hell up, "Mr. Williams will let you know when it's a strike."

But at least, J.D. Drew is polite and plays a very good right field. Imagine if his fielding was sub-par and he was constantly at war with the media and was known to spit at the hometown fans. That would be horrible. Because no major league hitter wants to be mentioned in the same breath as Ted Williams.