October 24, 2007


Updates throughout the day.

Diamond Mind's WS sims are up at ESPN. They played 1,000 series and the Red Sox won 70% of the time:
BOS in 4 - 105
BOS in 5 - 182
BOS in 6 - 201
BOS in 7 - 215
COL in 7 - 83
COL in 6 - 100
COL in 5 - 80
COL in 4 - 34
Over our 1,000 series simulations, the Red Sox averaged 4.81 runs per game to just 4.09 for the Rockies, which is equivalent to 779 and 663 runs, respectively, over a 162-game season. A 779-663 run differential equates to a record of 94-68, a .580 winning percentage, using Bill James' Pythagorean formula for projecting team wins based on runs scored. Sure enough, Boston's aggregate record against Colorado over 1,000 simulated series was 3,341-2,417 (.580).
The sims have the Red Sox winning Game 1 59.5% of the time. When that happened, Boston's chances of winning the series rose to 81.4% (with a 15% chance of a sweep).

That was with Tim Wakefield. Subbing Jon Lester as the Game 4 starter increases the Red Sox's overall chances of winning the series from 70% to 72% and their chances of sweeping or winning in five games goes to 32.2%.


The Black Pearl's parrot is missing.

Rockies -- God's team? (My higher power says No.)

ESPN picks:

Graphics/stats: Hitting Zones for Red Sox and Rockies hitters. And the Game 1 starters.

The Hardball Times: Why the Rockies will beat the Red Sox and Why the Red Sox will beat the Rockies.

Nate Silver, Baseball Prospectus: Red Sox in 7.

Peewee vs Tito in cribbage.

Rockies fans can download, print out and create a Red Sox voodoo doll.

Globe predictions: Benjamin (Sox in 5), Ryan (Sox in 5), Edes (Sox in 6), MacMullan (Sox in 6), Cafardo (Sox in 6), Shaugnessy (Sox in 6).

Woody Paige, Dener Post: Rockies in 6.

In the last 70 years, only five teams have pulled of a 21-1 run -- and only the Rockies have carried it into the playoffs. Their last road loss? September 13. Here is the streak game-by-game.

Don't worry, Fox will still be able to wax poetic about Derek Jeter. Colorado's rookie shortstop Troy Tulowitzki wears #2 because Cap'n Intangibles was (is?) his favorite player.

Only one Canadian-born pitcher has started a World Series game -- Reggie Cleveland started 1975 Game 5 for the Red Sox. Jeff Francis will be the second tonight.

Gordon Edes gives us six degrees of separation between Babe Ruth and Daisuke Matsuzaka: Ruth played with Tony Lazzeri, who played with Phil Cavaretta, who played with Minnie Minoso, who played with Harold Baines, who played with Manny Ramírez, who played with Matsuzaka. ... This Baseball Reference page lets you connect any two major leaguers!

With the Sox and Rox on Fox, BDD offers a Dr. Seuss parody.

Meet the Rockies: ProJo, Globe, Herald and Denver Post (part of the paper's World Series preview

Carl Yastrzemski will throw out the first pitch tonight.

Paul Doyle, Courant: Red Sox in 5.

What To Fear; What to Look Out For: Evan Brunell and Zach Hayes from Fire Brand of the American League preview the series with Dan Lucero and Tom Stephenson of Up in the Rockies.

Dan "Red Sox Monster" Lamothe and Brandi "Rox Girl/Purple Row" Griffin are covering the World Series "Wild-West style" for Yahoo. They are doing battle here.

Over The Monster looks at the Rockies.

Players: Todd Helton and Kevin Youkilis.

Red, Surviving Grady: "See that bunting on the field and that World Series logo on the Fenway grass? That's the unwritten code for "No work shall be done today, people. Stay home and get yourselves psyched up for baseball."


Sandy said...

Will do, and Go Sox!

Amy said...

Congratulations, Allan, on being listed at the top of the . I saw the post over at Laura's blog. That's terrific and well deserved!

stefan said...

In the linked Woody Paige article in the Denver Post in which he picks the Rockies in 6, he writes,

"Wild turkeys once flourished in Massachusetts (think Thanksgiving), but were virtually wiped out before being reintroduced in recent years. Just the other day in Brookline, one turkey chased a woman and bit her on the buttocks. The Rockies will bite the Red Sox in Game 6 to win the world championship."

In case you were wondering, oh yes, that's the same Woody Paige who is being sued for sexual harassment for pinching a woman's butt at work:

"Rita Ragone claims that Paige pinched and fondled her ...

Ragone, a makeup artist and hair stylist from the Bronx, claimed Paige once grabbed her backside so forcefully, she was 'propelled forward and into the air.'"

Creep. Go Sox!

(The only things being propelled forward and into the air tonight will be Francis' behind-in-the-count fastballs.)

nixon33 said...

poppytalk. havent visited it, but i'll use my imagination that its a place where everything opiate is discussed. maybe they even type the words velvet underground, or jesus and mary chain once and a while.

congrats allan.

thatdietcokegirl said...

JoS rulez ;D!

*excited exhale*

i'm so ON for tonight. ON ON ON!!

Rob said...

Redsock. Hit the fast-forward button to 8:00. Kthnx.

High Power Rocketry said...

: )