July 13, 2009

Schadenfreude 91 (A Continuing Series)

Mike Vaccaro, Post:
Well, if you're looking for silver linings about the second half of the Yankees' season, maybe you can start with this: They only have 10 games left with the Red Sox. And they only have three games left in Anaheim.
Erik Boland, Newsday:
Three days ago, the All-Star break looked like an inconvenience, something that could only serve as a momentum-buster for one of baseball's hottest teams.

Three days later, few teams appear more in need of the time off.
George A. King, III, Post:
Aggravating the Yankees further was the fact they flushed four-run leads Friday and Saturday before a brutal fourth inning by ace CC Sabathia did them in yesterday.
Mark Feinsand, Daily News:
Alex Rodriguez hit three homers and drove in five runs in the three-game series against the Angels, but when the Yankees needed him most, his bat was nowhere to be found.

A-Rod grounded into a bases-loaded double play in the seventh inning Sunday, then struck out to end the game ...
           W   L   PCT   GB    RS   RA  DIFF    EXP
Red Sox 54 34 .614 -- 465 380 + 85 52-36
Yankees 51 37 .580 3.0 495 435 + 60 49-39


andy said...

I've been thinking about this a bit lately...the idea that home runs are more important in the late innings. clutch.

I think the impact an early inning home run has on a game is just as important, although for difference reasons, as a late inning, game tying or winning home run is.

If a player hits a 2 run jack in inning 2, and puts his team up 3-0 (as they were winning 1-0 previously), the pitchers for both teams are affected in a major way going forward. There is much value in a 3-0 lead in inning 2 for a pitcher, and could considerably have more impact on whether a team walks away with a win or a loss than a 8th inning home run that ties the game, no?

If a player hits that home run in inning 2 or 3, the team will be my less likely to need anyone to hit it in inning 8 or 9.

maybe some stats refute this - I have no idea. What do you guys think?

allan said...

WPA stats at Fangraphs might help.

That would show how much an HR in the 2nd inning -- or any out or hit in any inning -- increased or decreased the chances of the team winning.

andy said...

Is that stat subjective though?

andy said...

Does that stat take into account the impact an early HR has on a game? The difference between walking in a run instead of pitching to a hot hitter with loaded bases could spell victory just as much as if Papi hits an 8th inning 2 run shot to take the lead or tie it. His services may not be needed if the HR is hit by FY in the 1st.