August 28, 2006

It's Not Dark Yet, But It's Getting There

From Baseball Prospectus, after "running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times." I'm not sure what that means, but it doesn't look good.
East       Avg W  Avg L   Div    WC    PS
Yankees 97.0 65.0 97.5 0.3 97.8
Red Sox 87.7 74.3 2.0 2.3 4.2
Blue Jays 85.1 76.9 0.5 0.3 0.7

Central Avg W Avg L Div WC PS
Tigers 99.9 62.1 85.8 11.8 97.6
Twins 94.2 67.8 9.2 49.3 58.5
White Sox 93.1 68.9 5.1 36.0 41.0

West Avg W Avg L Div WC PS
Athletics 89.8 72.2 80.0 0.0 80.0
Angels 85.4 76.6 16.6 0.1 16.7
Rangers 82.7 79.3 3.4 0.1 3.4

Average wins by Wild Card: 95.2
What we have here is average wins and losses by each team in those one million seasons and the percentage of times they won the division, wild card and made the playoffs. BP has these percentages extended out to five decimal places; I rounded them off.

Cool Standings has almost the exact same expectations for the East.

I keep thinking that if we can get to within three games of the Yankees by September 15 (when we play four games in the Bronx) then we have a shot. But this chronic squandering of opportunitites -- losing on days New York loses (and, really, all this losing, period) -- is making that very difficult.


laura k said...

and, really, all this losing, period

This is what makes it so difficult. All the losing. It makes it really hard to win.

thatdietcokegirl said...

all we need to do is stay afloat, but they can't seem to do even that. right after the yankees series i thought the same thing 'just stay with it red sox, try to stay within 3.5, 4'
i'm really upset with management. they were all thinking of the future when we had the future right infront of us, and now we've had to suffer another psychological set-back from new york when the tide had just turned. can't they see that? can't they see the season new york had last year after we finally won the world series? they must not care i guess. we should have made moves at the trade deadline. period.
i'm glad it's all fucked up. it's as it should be cause they didn't put in the effort, and francona hasn't put in the effort.

laura k said...

mind-numbingly, brain fryingly, head-explodingly WRONG

Jack, you're great when you get going. I must remember "brain-fryingly".

Racist or no, it's amazing that anyone could imply Manny is part of the problem. One of the few things that has gone right this season - as it does every season - is Manny's amazing hitting. (And some pretty cool glovework, too.)

But what do we expect from the CHB.

Jim said...

I can't help thinking that when CHB had dinner at Henry's place, Henry's parting shot was "By the way, you WILL help us run Manny out of town."

allan said...

I was readying some stuff about possible AL MVP -- in response to some silly "Jeter should be MVP" talk -- but put it aside.

But I'd say that Manny is a better choice for MVP than Ortiz.

allan said...

Isn't the title of this blog post from a Dylan song?

Ding! Ding! Ding!

The Yankee fan wins the prize!



(there is no prize, actually.)